Seminario para optar al título de Ingeniero Comercial, Mención Administración / En la primera etapa del presente estudio se indaga sobre la naturaleza y funcionamiento de Exemplars y Base Rate, dos de las principales herramientas comunicacionales que se emplean en la actualidad. Sin embargo el uso de dicho instrumental cuenta con su mayor grado de desarrollo en el área periodística, y de difusión de medios. De esta manera, la actual investigación busca extender al plano publicitario, algunas de las principales conclusiones que han sido obtenidas en el campo del periodismo, respecto de la utilización y procesamiento de Exemplars y Base Rate. Además, el estudio analiza con especial detalle las propiedades que estas herramientas tienen en materia de persuasión y de influencia en la opinión de las personas, así como también en el nivel de recordación e impacto emocional que son capaces de generar en éstas. Adentrándose un poco más en el tema de la persuasión, la investigación se orienta también a estudiar el rol que juega el Vividness Effect, como elemento clave de las facultades que un estímulo comunicacional posee para persuadir a una audiencia determinada. La sección experimental de este estudio fue desarrollada mediante encuestas, aplicadas a alumnos de Ingeniería Comercial de la Universidad de Chile, y cuyos principales resultados defienden las mayores propiedades persuasivas que los Exemplars poseen respecto de los Base Rate. De la misma forma se destacan los mejores resultados obtenidos por los Exemplars en materia de Recordación; y también en Impacto Emocional, al analizar las respuestas de Activación generadas en la muestra utilizada. Al mismo tiempo, no se obtuvieron resultados concluyentes acerca del efecto que el lineamiento cognitivo, tiene sobre el nivel de persuasión que la publicidad ejerce en las personas. Finalmente se entregan algunas sugerencias, explicando los aciertos y desaciertos de los resultados generados por esta investigación, y planteando temas de estudio complementarios al presente, para quienes deseen seguir indagando en áreas similares a la explorada.

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<p>The inverse base-rate effect is the observation that on certain occasions people classify new objects as belonging to rare base-rate categories rather than common ones (e.g., D. L. Medin & S. M. Edelson, 1988). This finding is inconsistent with normative prescriptions of rationality, and provides an anomaly for current theories of human knowledge representation, such as the exemplar-based models of categorization, which predict a consistent use of base-rates (e.g., D. L. Medin & M. M. Schaffer, 1978). This thesis presents a novel explanation of the inverse base-rate effect. The proposal is that participants sometimes eliminate category options that are inconsistent with well-supported inference rules. These assumptions contrast with those by attentional theory (J. K. Kruschke, in press), according to which the inverse base-rate effect is the outcome of rapid attention shifts operating on cue-category associations. Study I, II, and III verified seven qualitative predictions derived from the eliminative inference idea. None of these phenomena can be explained by attentional theory. The most important of these findings were that elimination of well-known, common categories mediate the inverse base-rate effect rather than the strongest cue-category associations (Study I), that only participants with a rule-based mode of generalization exhibit the inverse base-rate effect (Study II), and that rapid attentional shifts per se do not accelerate learning, but rather decelerate it (Study III). In addition, Study I provided a quantitative implementation of the eliminative inference idea, ELMO, that demonstrated that this high-level reasoning process can produce the basic pattern of base-rate effects in the inverse base-rate design. Taken together, as an account of the inverse base-rate effect the empirical evidence of this thesis suggest that rule-based elimination is a powerful component of the inverse base-rate effect. But previous studies have indicated that attentional shifts affect the inverse base-rate effect, too. Therefore, a complete account of the inverse base-rate effect needs to integrate inductive and eliminative inferences operating on rule-based representations with attentional shifts. The Discussion of this thesis propose a number of suggestions for such integrative work. </p>

The inverse base-rate effect is the observation that on certain occasions people classify new objects as belonging to rare base-rate categories rather than common ones (e.g., D. L. Medin &amp; S. M. Edelson, 1988). This finding is inconsistent with normative prescriptions of rationality, and provides an anomaly for current theories of human knowledge representation, such as the exemplar-based models of categorization, which predict a consistent use of base-rates (e.g., D. L. Medin &amp; M. M. Schaffer, 1978). This thesis presents a novel explanation of the inverse base-rate effect. The proposal is that participants sometimes eliminate category options that are inconsistent with well-supported inference rules. These assumptions contrast with those by attentional theory (J. K. Kruschke, in press), according to which the inverse base-rate effect is the outcome of rapid attention shifts operating on cue-category associations. Study I, II, and III verified seven qualitative predictions derived from the eliminative inference idea. None of these phenomena can be explained by attentional theory. The most important of these findings were that elimination of well-known, common categories mediate the inverse base-rate effect rather than the strongest cue-category associations (Study I), that only participants with a rule-based mode of generalization exhibit the inverse base-rate effect (Study II), and that rapid attentional shifts per se do not accelerate learning, but rather decelerate it (Study III). In addition, Study I provided a quantitative implementation of the eliminative inference idea, ELMO, that demonstrated that this high-level reasoning process can produce the basic pattern of base-rate effects in the inverse base-rate design. Taken together, as an account of the inverse base-rate effect the empirical evidence of this thesis suggest that rule-based elimination is a powerful component of the inverse base-rate effect. But previous studies have indicated that attentional shifts affect the inverse base-rate effect, too. Therefore, a complete account of the inverse base-rate effect needs to integrate inductive and eliminative inferences operating on rule-based representations with attentional shifts. The Discussion of this thesis propose a number of suggestions for such integrative work.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’analyser comment les biais cognitifs et émotionnels affectent les décisions des investisseurs lorsqu’ils achètent ou vendent des immeubles de bureaux. Pour atteindre cet objectif, cette recherche adopte, dans un premier temps, une démarche qualitative. Les entretiens semi-structurés permettent de détecter et d’analyser les biais les plus importants qui apparaissent au cours de la transaction. Parmi les différents biais décelés « l’oubli de la fréquence de base » a été sélectionné. Ce biais peut apparaître avant l’acquisition lorsque les investisseurs évaluent la performance attendue d’un immeuble. Une analyse quantitative suit pour développer une échelle qui mesure l’effet du biais. Les résultats ont montré que l’incertitude conduit certains investisseurs à supposer que le rendement qu’ils obtiendront à la fin de leur investissement sera égal à celui du rendement initial. En d’autres termes, certains investisseurs estiment que les conditions du marché resteront les mêmes qu’aujourd’hui / The main objective of this thesis is to analyse how cognitive and emotional biases affect investor decisions when buying or selling office buildings. To meet this aim, this research embarks on a qualitative research. Semi-structured interviews permit to detect and analyse the most important biases that appear in the transactions. Among the different biases discovered, the "base-rate fallacy" was selected. This bias may appear before the acquisition when investors evaluate the expected performance of a building. A quantitative analysis follows to develop a scale that tries to measure the effect of the bias. The results showed that uncertainty leads some investors to assume that the yield they will obtain at the end of their investment will be equal to that of the initial yield. In other words, some investors believe that market conditions will remain the same as today.