The Farm Aid benefit concert in September of 1985 was one member of a long list of such philanthropic events. It proved itself unique, however, in a number of ways. Most notably, the concert failed to reach the goals which its organizers had set, unlike most of the other benefits of the same decade. This study attempted to explain the failure of the event.Chapter One is an introduction which helps to justify the study, review existing literature on the subject, and preview the method used within the analysis. Chapter Two includes a general history of benefit concerts, helping to explain the evolution of such persuasive events.Concerts such as the early work of Harry Chapin, the Concert for Bangladesh, Concerts for Kampuchea, and others are discussed. The contemporary trend of successful benefits including the Band Aid, USA for Africa, and Live Aid efforts are also considered, helping to establish the context in which Farm Aid occurred.Next, an explanation of the situation facing American farmers in 1985 is provided, establishing the need for the concert.Chapter Three is an evaluation of the fantasy themes presented to the American public by the media. By chronologically examing the changes in the characters, plots, and settings set forth by the media, certain general themes can be identified.These themes glorified the effort and its participants, conjuring high expectations in the minds of many Americans.Those expectations could not be met, however, guaranteeing failure for the event.Chapter Four draws conclusions about the weaknesses of Farm Aid. By examining the timing of the concert, its focus, and the persuasive appeals used by its participants, the study reveals that Farm Aid's failure was the result of a combination of different factors. First, the organizers had left themselves very little time to plan the event.Also, many Americans were suffering from boredom with the notion of the benefit concert after the highly successful events which preceded Farm Aid. The ideas expressed within the concert were not focused in a unified manner. Different participants presented differing appeals for action, making the public's role in the event unclear.Finally, the appeals which were presented were not well planned, preventing them from adequately moving the public. In general, the media had created a picture in the minds of the public that could not be fulfilled, especially not with the weak attempts of the concert's participants.

Current practice for sample size computations in clinical trials is largely based on frequentist or classical methods. These methods have the drawback of requiring a point estimate of the variance of treatment effect and are based on arbitrary settings of type I and II errors. They also do not directly address the question of achieving the best balance between the costs of the trial and the possible benefits by using a new medical treatment, and fail to consider the important fact that the number of users depends on evidence for improvement compared with the current treatment. A novel Bayesian approach, Behavioral Bayes (or BeBay for short) (Gittins and Pezeshk, 2000a,b, 2002a,b; Pezeshk, 2003), assumes that the number of patients switching to the new treatment depends on the strength of the evidence which is provided by clinical trials, and takes a value between zero and the number of potential patients in the country. The better a new treatment, the more patients switch to it and the more the resulting benefit. The model defines the optimal sample size to be the sample size that maximises the expected net benefit resulting from a clinical trial. Gittins and Pezeshk use a simple form of benefit function for paired comparisons between two medical treatments and assume that the variance of the efficacy is known. The research in this thesis generalises these original conditions by introducing a logistic benefit function to take account of differences in efficacy and safety between two drugs. The model is also extended to the more general cases of unpaired comparisons and unknown variance. The expected net benefit defined by Gittins and Pezeshk is based on the efficacy of the new drug only. It does not consider the incidence of adverse reactions and their effect on patients’ preferences. Here we include the costs of treating adverse reactions and calculate the total benefit in terms of how much the new drug can reduce societal expenditure. We describe how our model may be used for the design of phase III clinical trials, cluster randomised clinical trials and bridging studies. This is done in some detail and using illustrative examples based on published studies. For phase III trials we allow the possibility of unequal treatment group sizes, which often occur in practice. Bridging studies are those carried out to extend the range of applicability of an established drug, for example to new ethnic groups. Throughout the objective of our procedures is to optimise the costbenefit in terms of national health-care. BeBay is the leading methodology for determining sample sizes on this basis. It explicitly takes account of the roles of three decision makers, namely patients and doctors, pharmaceutical companies and the health authority.

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has the stated objective of delivering good status (GS) for Europe’s surface waters and groundwaters. But meeting GS is cost dependent, and in some water bodies pollution abatement costs may be high or judged as disproportionate. The definition and assessment of disproportionate costs is central for the justification of time-frame derogations and/or lowering the environmental objectives (standards) for compliance at a water body. European official guidance is discretionary about the interpretation of disproportionate costs which consequently can be interpreted and applied differently across Member States. The aim of this research is to clarify the definition of disproportionality and to convey a consistent interpretation that is fully compliant with the economic requirements of the Directive, whilst also being mindful of the principles of pollution control and welfare economics theory. On this basis, standard-setting derogations should aim to reach socially optimal decisions and be judged with reference to a combination of explicit cost and benefit curves – an application of Cost-Benefits Analysis - and financial affordability tests. Arguably, these tools should be more influential in the development of derogation decisions across member states, including Scotland. The WFD is expected to have extensive effects on Scottish agriculture, which is faced with the challenge of maintaining its competitiveness, while protecting water resources. Focusing the analysis on the socio-economic impacts of achieving water diffuse pollution targets for the sector, a series of independent tests for the assessment of disproportionate costs are proposed and evaluated. These are: i) development of abatement cost curves for agricultural Phosphorus (P) mitigation options for different farm systems; ii) a financial characterisation of farming in Scotland and impact on profits of achieving different P loads reductions at farm level are investigated in order to explore issues on "affordability" and "ability to pay" by the sector; and iii) an investigation of benefits assessment using discrete choice modelling to explore public preferences for pollution control and measure non-market benefits of WFD water quality improvements in Scotland. Results from these tests provide benchmarks for the definition of disproportionate costs and are relevant to other aspects of the economic analysis of water use in Scotland. This study helps to clarify the nature of agricultural water use and how it leads to social tradeoffs with other non agricultural users. Ultimately, this perspective adds to the debate of how and where water is best employed to maximize its value to society.

The study begins by investigating Thailand’s administration of its mineral resources and those of some other leading mineral-exporting countries for comparison. The notion of ‘resource curse’, which affects many resource-rich countries, and an analysis how Thailand fought and won the ‘curse’ is critically explored. The principle of sustainable development and its implication to Thailand are presented, together with various computed indicators of sustainable development for Thailand. The role of mineral resources and Hotelling’s model in the context of sustainable development are discussed. The essence of this study is the development of economic models to determine the optimal extraction paths of Thailand’s gypsum resources based on Hotelling's concept of maximizing Net Present Value (NPV) of benefits accrued to the country. This study finds that under all assumptions and all scenarios, at a certain point in time, Thailand should stop exporting its gypsum and devote the remainder of its gypsum resources to domestic consumption only. In addition, Thailand should push gypsum price up to a certain level. The model determining gypsum consumption in Thailand and some countries imported gypsum from Thailand, which are the basis to determine the optimal extraction paths of gypsum in Thailand, is also developed. It shows that the price of gypsum had no effect on its consumption. In other words, the demand for gypsum might be highly inelastic. Finally, the long-term policies for Thailand to manage its gypsum resource are recommended.

The aim of this study is to evaluate an alternative socio-economical valuation method (i.e., Hybrid Real Options, HRO) to the traditional benefit cost method (CBA) for the evaluation of investments within Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The proposed alternative method will be evaluated by the use of a case study where it is applied and compared to the results of the traditional method. The case study evaluates the socio-economical effects of an investment in Variable Speed Limits along a section of the motorway E18. The results of the study shows that the choice of evaluation methods affects both the investment strategy and the estimated socio-economical benefits of the investment. Using the HRO method yields twice as high socio-economical benefits compared to the CBA method. The main reason for this being that HRO account for risk and uncertainties wheras CBA only accounts for the most probable outcome of the investment. The choice of method is a complex task that involves many stakeholders however a more critical approach to the choice of socio-economical evaluation method is advocated based on the results of this study.

No description available.

Quantitative risk assessments are a fundamental part of economic analysis and natural hazard risk management models. It increases the objectivity and the transparency of risk assessments and guides policymakers in making efficient decisions when spending public resources on risk reduction. Managing hazard risks calls for an understanding of the relationships between hazard exposure and vulnerability of humans and assets.   The purpose of this thesis is to identify and estimate causal relationships between hazards, exposure and vulnerability, and to evaluate the applicability of systematically collected data sets to produce reliable and generalizable quantitative information for decision support.   Several causal relationships have been established. For example, the extent of lake flood damage to residential buildings depends on the duration of floods, distance to waterfront, the age of the house and in some cases the water level. Results also show that homeowners private initiative to reduce risk, prior to or during a flood, reduced their probability of suffering building damage with as much as 40 percent. Further, a causal relationship has been established between the number of people exposed to quick clay landslides and landslide fatalities.   Even though several relationships were identified between flood exposure and vulnerability, the effects can only explain small parts of the total variation in damages, especially at object level. The availability of damage data in Sweden is generally low. The most comprehensive damage data sets in Sweden are held by private insurance companies and are not publicly available. Data scarcity is a barrier to quantitative natural hazard risk assessment in Sweden. More efforts should therefore be made to collect data systematically for modelling and validating standardized approaches to quantitative damage estimation. / Natural hazard damages have increased worldwide. Impacts caused by hydrological and meteorological hazards have increased the most. An analysis of insurance payments in Sweden showed that flood damages have been increasing in Sweden as well. With climate change and increasing populations we can expect this trend to continue unless efforts are made to reduce risk and adapt communities to the threats. Economic analysis and quantitative risk assessments of natural hazards are fundamental parts of a risk management process that can support policymakers' decisions on efficient risk reduction. However, in order to develop reliable damage estimation models knowledge is needed of the relationships between hazard exposure and the vulnerability of exposed objects and persons. This thesis has established causal relationships between residential exposure and flood damage on the basis of insurance data. I also found that private damage-reducing actions decreased the probability of damage to buildings with almost 40 percent. Further, a causal relationship has been established between the number of people exposed to quick clay landslides and fatalities. Even though several relationships have been identified between flood exposure and vulnerability, the effects can explain only small parts of the total variation in damages, especially at object level, and more effort is needed to develop quantitative models for risk assessment purposes.

Forests in boreal and temperate forest-ecosystems have importance for carbonbalance since they sequester large amount of atmospheric carbon by uptake ofcarbon-dioxide during photosynthesis, and transfer and store carbon in the forestecosystem. Forest material can be used for bio-fuel purposes and substitute fossilfuels, and supply wood products, which can replace carbon-and-energy-intensivematerials. Therefore it is vital to consider the role of forests regarding today´s aimto mitigate climate change. This thesis assess (i) how climate change affects futureforest carbon balance, (ii) the importance of different strategies for forestmanagement systems, and biomass production for the carbon balance, (iii) how theuse of forest production affect the total carbon balance in a lifecycle perspective,and (iv) how the Swedish carbon balance is affected from the standpoint of boththe actual use of forest raw material within Sweden and what Swedish forestryexports. The analysis was made mainly in a long-term perspective (60-300 years) toillustrate the importance of temporal and also the spatial perspective, as theanalysis includes stand level, landscape level, and national level. In this thesis, forestry was considered a system. All activities, from forestregeneration to end use of forest products, were entities of this system. In theevaluation, made from a systems perspective, we used life-cycle analysis toestimate carbon stock in different system flows. Different forest managementsystems and forest production were integrated in the analyses. Different forestmanagement scenarios were designed for the Swedish forest management incombination with the effect of future climate change; (i) intensive forest practiceaiming at increased growth, (ii) increased forest set-aside areas, changes in forestmanagement systems for biomass production, and (iii) how the use of forestproducts affect the total carbon balance (construction material, bioenergy and otherdomestic use). The results showed that future climate changes and intensive forest managementwith increased production could increase the biomass production and the potentialuse of forest raw material. This has a positive effect on carbon stock change in theforest biomass, litter production and below ground carbon stock and help reducingcarbon-dioxide emissions. Increased forest set-aside areas can increase the shorttermcarbon stock in forest ecosystems, but will reduce the total long-term carbonbalance. The net carbon balance for clear-cut forestry did not differ significantlyfrom continuous-cover forestry, but was rather a question of level of growth. Mostimportant, in the long term, was according to our analysis, how forest raw materialis used. Present Swedish forestry and use of forest raw material, both withinSweden and abroad, reduce carbon-dioxide emissions and mitigate climate change.The positive effect for the total carbon balance and climate benefit mostly takeplace abroad, due to the Swedish high level of export of wood products and thehigher substitution effects achieved outside Swedish borders. One strategy is toincrease production, harvest and use Swedish forest raw material to replace morecarbon intensive material, which can contribute to significant emission reduction.Carbon-dioxide mitigation, as a result of present Swedish forestry, was shown tobe almost of the same level as the total yearly emission of greenhouse gases. Thetotal carbon benefit would increase if the biomass production and felling increasedand if Swedish wood products replaced carbon intensive materials. This thesis shows also that, by changing forest management, increase thegrowth and the use of forest raw material and export of forest material we cancontribute to even larger climate benefits. In a long-term perspective, thesubstitution effects and replacement of carbon-and energy-intensive materials areof greater significance than carbon storage effects in forests. A more productionoriented forestry needs to make balances and increase the prerequisite forbiological diversity, improve recreation possibilities, and protect sensitive landareas and watersheds. Climate benefits, from Swedish forestry, are highly dependent on policydecision-making and how that can steer the direction for the Swedish forestry.

The diagnosis of cancer in a child is one of the most significant stressors a parent can experience, and research in the area of stress-related effects of illness on parents has emerged in many areas. The majority of studies have focused on the potential or actual negative impact on parents during and after treatment of their child's illness. However, studies that initially set out to explore the difficulties associated with coping with childhood cancer found that parents often reported positive aspects about the experience. There is now increasing interest and support for the study of "positive-health" factors that contribute to protective variables influencing the health and well being of parents, such as benefit finding. The present study aimed to illuminate the process of benefit finding in parents of children with cancer and to develop a theoretical model of this process based on the findings.This grounded theory study resulted in a conceptual model that organized and depicted the constructs and structures related to the process of benefit finding. Through constant comparative analysis, the Basic Psychosocial Problem was identified as being overwhelmed with fear. The parents identified intervening conditions that helped move them from feeling overwhelmed to feeling that they could manage the fear. Many parents identified a specific event, an "epiphenomenon" that created a turning point for them. This event, along with the intervening conditions, moved the parent from being overwhelmed to managing/transforming the fear, which was the Basic Psychosocial Process. The strategies that the parents identified as helping to manage the fear are being in the present, being strong, having faith/maintaining hope, and making meaning out of the event, of which benefit finding was the major component. This entire process occurred within the context of being a parent, as this awareness colored the entire experience. Benefit finding emerged as both a strategy and an outcome within this process and encompassed a growth in character, strengthening of relationships, and a gain in perspective. The theoretical model and substantive theory that emerged during the course of this study provide a way to understand this process in parents of children with cancer.

The following project is a compilation of three separate articles all utilizing a database extracted from the UNUM/Provident Life Insurance Company, including all consecutive short-term disability (STD) claims filed with UNUM from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 1996 from claimants who were also insured for long-term disability (LTD) by UNUM. The resulting sample includes 77,297 claims.The results of these studies are part of a larger investigation that documented the Progression of Disability Benefits (PODB) phenomenon. PODB refers to the migration of workers with work-limiting disabilities through a system of economic benefits resulting in their placement onto Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). Claimant and employer demographics were found to influence the PODB. The following articles study three unique ways in which the PODB measure can be informative.The first of the articles tracts the experience of 400 individuals with neurological impairments through the PODB, and compares them with a general disability population on key demographic characteristics. In general, it is found that persons with neurological conditions have greater progression on to advanced disability levels than other types of disabilities. Individual claimants are also younger and male.The second article explores the relationship of integrated disability management(IDM) practices with PODB. It proposes that while the efficacy of IDM programs has been measured by the bottom line, that PODB can be used as an additional tool to assess effectiveness of DM programs. It finds that employers with higher levels of IDM activity will experience a reduced PODB rating.The third and final article examines one industry, Healthcare. It studies how demographics can be used to predict claimant industry as well as PODB performance. Findings reveal that men were more likely to move on to advanced disability benefits while workers in the Healthcare industry were less likely to move on to advanced statuses than employees in other industries. Furthermore, disability type is the greatest predictor of PODB, followed by age for all but one category in which employment sector was the next predictor of PODB. This finding leads to questions regarding how the workplace may contribute to disability and the PODB.