The economic viability of farming in Saskatchewan is eroding and the future of the industry is becoming uncertain given the current economic state. The combination of low commodity prices, increasing input and transportation costs, ongoing drought conditions, inadequate safety net programs, and environmental concerns resulting from agricultural greenhouse gas emissions has led to this uncertainty. One possible solution for producers to help overcome or at least minimize the negative trends occurring in agriculture, which is proposed, is afforestation of agricultural land. Afforestation not only provides net private benefits of timber income but external benefits, including carbon sequestration, and preservation of native forests, which provides areas for hunting, wildlife viewing, and conservation of land. The economic efficiency of afforestation was examined using a transitional benefit cost framework for both crop and pasture systems. This allowed for both private and social perspectives, along with the opportunity costs, to be included and the economic efficiency of afforestation from each perspective was determined. The potential conversion of agricultural land to afforestation was based solely on economic efficiency and assumed producers demonstrated an economically rational decision making process. The results from the benefit cost analysis indicated that the net private benefits from afforestation were never significant enough to warrant the conversion of either crop or pasture systems to afforestation. The results did however show that the net social benefits from afforestation would warrant the conversion of crop systems to afforestation for a limited number of situations. Crop systems on physically marginal land with a carbon payment of either $22.58 or $33.55 tonne of C would warrant conversion to afforestation, using either a single or infinite rotation. The infinite rotation resulted in a larger allocation of land to afforestation. The role afforestation can play in helping producers diversify and increase income levels is limited. The low price paid for timber and the high costs of establishment for afforestation are the main constraints. In order for afforestation to become economically efficient on a large scale the constraints facing producers needs to be addressed.

The economic viability of farming in Saskatchewan is eroding and the future of the industry is becoming uncertain given the current economic state. The combination of low commodity prices, increasing input and transportation costs, ongoing drought conditions, inadequate safety net programs, and environmental concerns resulting from agricultural greenhouse gas emissions has led to this uncertainty. One possible solution for producers to help overcome or at least minimize the negative trends occurring in agriculture, which is proposed, is afforestation of agricultural land. Afforestation not only provides net private benefits of timber income but external benefits, including carbon sequestration, and preservation of native forests, which provides areas for hunting, wildlife viewing, and conservation of land. The economic efficiency of afforestation was examined using a transitional benefit cost framework for both crop and pasture systems. This allowed for both private and social perspectives, along with the opportunity costs, to be included and the economic efficiency of afforestation from each perspective was determined. The potential conversion of agricultural land to afforestation was based solely on economic efficiency and assumed producers demonstrated an economically rational decision making process. The results from the benefit cost analysis indicated that the net private benefits from afforestation were never significant enough to warrant the conversion of either crop or pasture systems to afforestation. The results did however show that the net social benefits from afforestation would warrant the conversion of crop systems to afforestation for a limited number of situations. Crop systems on physically marginal land with a carbon payment of either $22.58 or $33.55 tonne of C would warrant conversion to afforestation, using either a single or infinite rotation. The infinite rotation resulted in a larger allocation of land to afforestation. The role afforestation can play in helping producers diversify and increase income levels is limited. The low price paid for timber and the high costs of establishment for afforestation are the main constraints. In order for afforestation to become economically efficient on a large scale the constraints facing producers needs to be addressed.

空氣污染防制費自民國84年7月1日開徵，希望能藉由空污費的徵收來減少污染的排放量，同時能透過空氣污染防制費的有效運用來改善空氣品質，而本文僅針對空氣污染防制迄今，對家計部門所產生的清潔效益進行估算。 首先，利用家計部門生產函數建立理論模型，接著以錢玉蘭、蕭代基(1996)，「台灣大都會地區改善空氣品質之經濟效益評估與酸雨風險認知調查」的問卷調查資料為樣本，對超對數及近似理想需求函數的實證模型進行配適比較。結果顯示：近似理想需求函數配適之判定係數較高，符合加總性、齊次性及對稱性限制條件，而價格變數與屬性變數之估計結果亦相當合理，因此，推論近似理想需求函數為解釋台灣清潔需求型態的較適模型。 由近似理想需求函數所推估之85及86會計年度空污費執行所帶來台灣地區家戶清潔效益分別為每戶2101元及651元，加總每戶效益後，台灣地區總清潔效益分別為128億元及39億元，與空污費實際執行的歲出相較，推論空污費執行迄今之效益大於成本。並由推算之各都會地區補償變量性質，建議政府以效率的觀點使用空氣污染防制費時，應將防制資源優先使用於改善都市化程度愈高，人口數愈多，污染程度愈嚴重地區的空氣品質。 / The Environmental Protection Agency of Taiwan launched the Air Pollution Emission Fees Program to levy emission fees on petroleum products, July 1, 1995. The purpose of such a program is to provide economic incentives to change peoples' behavior towards the consumption of fuels and to collect fees to be used for the improvement of air quahty. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the emission fees program on household cleanness. In order to achieve this objective, we first employ a household production function in accordance with the theory of consumption behavior. Two models are utilized in this study, i.e., the translog firnction model and the almost ideal demand function model. We utilize cross-section data to fit into these models and find that the almost ideal demand model has more significant explanatory power. Therefore, we infer that this model is a better functional form for expressing the cleanness behavior of Taiwan's households. The estimated results of the total benefits for household cleanness resulting from the implementation of air pollution emission fees are NT$12.8 and NT$3.9 bilhon for the accounting years of 1996 and 1997, respectively. By comparing expenditure from the air pollution fees, which were designated for the purpose of improving air quality, i.e., NT$4.2 and NTS3.3 billion for the respective years 1996 and 1997, we can see that the pollution control program is conformable with the benefit-cost principle. Finally, based on the empirical results, pohcy recommendations are presented in the conclusion.

The appraisal or the feasibility of an engineering venture or an investment relies on the estimation of the analysis parameters, which usually occur in the future. All such estimates have an element of uncertainty which needs to be acknowledged. Traditional methods of engineering economic or discounted cash flow analysis, for example, net present value, benefit/cost ratio, internal rate of return and payback period, do not take into account the uncertainty associated with the analysis parameters. To this end, the present study proposes a number of evaluation methodologies in order to deal with the inherent uncertainty. The present study uses second-order moment thinking to determine the expected value and the variance of feasibility measures, net present value, benefit/cost ratio, internal rate of return and payback period. A venture???s feasibility is defined in this study as the probability of the total benefit exceeding the total cost, the probability of the internal rate of return being greater than a specified interest rate, or the probability of the payback period being less than a specified time period. However, the determination of the variance of these measures requires the estimation of the correlation coefficients between the benefits and costs. The task of estimating correlation coefficients is difficult without making certain assumptions. An examination of the degree of correlation is presented which can be used for guidance in feasibility studies. The present study also gives a theoretical formulation for feasibility for single and multiple ventures and supports this with representative results based on case studies. Such a formulation resolves which combination of ventures is best from a viewpoint of feasibility. Additionally, venture appraisal is modelled as a system with Markov properties. When analysis parameters such as the interest rate, benefits and costs are defined as states, with the associated transition probabilities from one period of time to another, Markov chains can be used to estimate a venture???s feasibility. This provides further insight into the influence of variability in the analysis parameters, and provides the solution to the problem of the determination of the optimal policy, which maximises the expected net present value or the venture's feasibility over its life span. Markov chains provide further insights into the effect of the inter-temporal correlation coefficients on the variance of the net present value. When each state is taken to represent a different value of inter-temporal correlation coefficient, and consequently a different variance, it is possible to evaluate the venture's expected variance and the variance of the variance of the net present value, according to the transition probabilities associated with each state.

The aim of this study is to evaluate an alternative socio-economical valuation method (i.e., Hybrid Real Options, HRO) to the traditional benefit cost method (CBA) for the evaluation of investments within Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The proposed alternative method will be evaluated by the use of a case study where it is applied and compared to the results of the traditional method. The case study evaluates the socio-economical effects of an investment in Variable Speed Limits along a section of the motorway E18. The results of the study shows that the choice of evaluation methods affects both the investment strategy and the estimated socio-economical benefits of the investment. Using the HRO method yields twice as high socio-economical benefits compared to the CBA method. The main reason for this being that HRO account for risk and uncertainties wheras CBA only accounts for the most probable outcome of the investment. The choice of method is a complex task that involves many stakeholders however a more critical approach to the choice of socio-economical evaluation method is advocated based on the results of this study.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / John M. Crespi / The objective of this analysis is to develop a demand model for the Sunsweet Cooperative and from this model, determine if the benefits to Sunweet’s advertising, as measured by the change in revenues, exceed the advertising costs. Weekly retail scanner data from July 20, 2008 through June 13, 2010 were used. Ordinary least squares regression equations were estimated to determine the overall demand for Sunsweet dried prunes. Two different models were estimated, one for Sunsweet’s overall prune demand and another for the Sunsweet’s Ones product. The advertising elasticity for the total dried prune demand was 0.10 and for the Ones product was 0.24. The demand equations demonstrated that Sunsweet’s advertising expenditures are increasing the overall demand for their dried prunes and their specific Ones product. What cannot be determined from the demand estimations is whether increase in revenues was greater than the cost of the advertising program. This is an especially important question for Sunsweet as it can be discerned from the data that Sunsweet’s advertising expenditures are quite large as a fraction of its revenues when compared with other similar food sellers. Using the regression equations, a benefit-cost simulation was conducted. We developed a measure that tells us how much the quantities sold of prunes would be affected by increased advertising expenditures by Sunsweet while taking into account the costs of advertising under an assumption of monopolistic competition. Two different scenarios were evaluated, one with a shutdown condition that did not allow average revenue to be below average cost and another without this shutdown condition. The total Sunsweet prune model resulted in an average benefit cost of 2.143 with the shutdown constraint and 1.845 without the shutdown constraint. The Ones product model resulted in an average benefit-cost estimate of 2.672 with the shutdown constraint and 2.358 without the shutdown constraint. Overall these ratios are good for a company operating under monopolistic competition and suggest that for every dollar spent on the advertising campaign, the average return was near to or greater than $2. Overall our analysis showed that Sunsweet’s advertising expenditures are increasing their overall demand and their benefits of advertising are exceeding their costs of advertising.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is a federal agency with a mission to develop water resource projects to benefit the nation. Some of its large scale projects have been built to benefit cities, but through unintended consequences have caused economic and environmental damages. For example, its control of Mississippi River flooding has protected the City of New Orleans, but contributed to land loss in coastal Louisiana, and by some accounts, made the population more susceptible to hurricane damage. The agency has now embarked on a mission to restore some of the damaged environmental areas. This dissertation evaluates whether policies and practices used by the agency to evaluate and select plans to implement is logically flawed and could produce suboptimal project selection. The primary issue is the practice of including only implementation costs in the analysis while excluding other positive and negative economic impacts. A case study is performed using the method to evaluate a traditional economic development project for which optimal project selection has already been determined using widely accepted benefit-cost practices. The results show that the Corps' environmental project evaluation method would cause rejection of the most efficient plan. The loss of welfare that would result from using this technique is measured by comparing the welfare gain of the optimal project to the welfare gain of the suboptimal projects which could be selected using the flawed methodology. In addition, the dissertation evaluates whether suboptimal results could be produced using two other current Corps policies: selecting projects based on production efficiency, and the exclusion of environmental benefits from the discounting process. For the first policy, a simple counter example shows how clearly inferior choices may come from including only supply considerations in investment choices. For the second policy, it is demonstrated mathematically that refraining from discounting benefits while discounting costs causes a bias towards selection of plans that take longer to build, are delayed in their implantation, or a combination of the two.

The Utah Department of Transportation developed life-cycle benefit-cost analysis spreadsheets that allow engineers and analysts to evaluate multiple safety countermeasures. The spreadsheets have included the functionality to evaluate a roadway based on the 11 facility types from the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) with the use of crash severity distributions. The HSM suggests that local agencies develop crash severity distributions based on their local crash data. The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Brigham Young University worked with the Statistics Department to develop crash severity distributions for the facility types from the HSM.The primary objective of this research was to utilize available roadway characteristic and crash data to develop crash severity distributions for the 11 facility types in the HSM. These objectives were accomplished by segmenting the roadway data based on homogeneity and developing statistical models to determine the distributions. Due to insufficient data, the facility types of freeway speed change lanes and freeway ramps were excluded from the scope of this research. In order to accommodate more roadways within the research, the facility type definitions were expanded to include more through lanes.The statistical models that were developed for this research include multivariate regression, frequentist binomial regression, frequentist multinomial, and Bayesian multinomial regression models. A cross-validation study was conducted to determine the models that best described the data. Bayesian Information Criterion, Deviance Information Criterion, and Root-Mean-Square Error values were compared to conduct the comparison. Based on the cross-validation study, it was determined that the Bayesian multinomial regression model is the most effective model to describe the crash severity distributions for the nine facility types evaluated.

In the Philippines, about 38 per cent of the total population resides in rural areas where poverty remains a significant problem, especially in remote upland communities. Soil erosion has been a well-recognised problem in these areas, resulting in a number of impacts on the livelihoods of the rural poor. The development and dissemination of soil and water resource conservation (SWC) techniques has been seen as essential to achieving improved and lasting outcomes for the livelihoods of upland communities, with benefits spilling over beyond the farm boundary. The participatory development of a cost-effective means of controlling soil erosion, natural vegetative strips (NVS), has increased the adoptability of SWC for many upland households, enabling them to incorporate agroforestry and other practices in their farming systems. The Landcare Program in the southern Philippines has facilitated the adoption of these practices over the past decade. However, the impacts of adoption on the livelihoods of farming households, and the externalities that adoption may deliver, have remained speculative. This thesis first explores whether the adoption of Landcare practices has resulted in improved livelihood outcomes for upland farming families. Second, it analyses the potential for the piecemeal adoption of these measures to deliver tangible benefits at the watershed scale. Finally, using a benefit-cost approach, these outcomes are compared to the costs of the research and extension projects that have helped achieve them. The analysis is carried out in two upland municipalities, San Isidro and Pilar, in the Province of Bohol. Landcare households in Bohol dedicate a large percentage of household resources to the production of rainfed rice, which is the primary source of subsistence for adopting households while upland plots play a secondary role. The adoption of NVS alone did not typically generate significant economic benefits, yet created the stable platform on which more commercial investments were being made, especially through NVS enrichment. In San Isidro, the average annual income of adopters generated from upland activities was estimated to be more than double that of non-adopters, with a difference of over PHP 7,500. In Pilar, the net impacts of adoption were estimated to be only around PHP 3,700, given that many households had not enriched their NVS at the time of the survey. At the household level, the benefits of adoption are therefore contingent on the ability of the household to make further investments in their farming system, stemming from improved soil stability. Several case studies were used to describe the process of and constraints to farm development. The average impacts on incomes were found to be significant at the household level, with the potential to lift a household above the poverty threshold. Yet the marginal nature of the upland farming systems limits the aggregate on-site benefits. The expansion of activities into Pilar and Alicia was estimated to increase the net annual benefits, reaching PHP 2,270,000 (around AUD 60,000) per year by 2009. In absolute terms, this impact is still quite modest, but needs to be considered together with the off-site impacts and the costs of the Landcare Program. In Pilar, one of the clearest impacts of erosion due (in part) to upland cropping has been the sedimentation of the Malinao Dam. The significance and distribution of forgone revenue from irrigated rice as a result of sedimentation is largely determined by factors including the timing of rainfall events, the allocation of water between users, and the value of alternative land uses. Furthermore, the upland agricultural landscapes of Bohol are diverse and complex, with numerous sources and filters of sediment. A terrain analysis model was used to model the impact of incremental adoption of Landcare practices within the landscape. The results show that the spatial distribution of adoption is likely to be as important as the extent of adoption when it comes to delivering off-site benefits. The aggregate level of losses avoided as a result of Landcare was estimated to be around PHP 1,023,000 (AUD 26,900) over a 20-year period at a discount rate of five per cent. The results of the livelihood analysis and watershed modelling were combined in a benefit-cost analysis (BCA) and compared to the costs of the projects and other investments that have helped bring about the impacts. The results showed a positive but small NPV of around PHP 3.5 million, equating to around AUD 91,000, for the 20 year period simulated, using a 5 per cent discount rate. The sunk costs of the early phases of theLandcare Program, however, continue to provide the basis for ongoing livelihood projects that utilise farmer groups as a means of extension. Furthermore, when the expansion of the Program into other nearby municipalities can draw on the original research or learning hub, rapid adoption can be achieved at relatively low cost and provide a significant return on investment. Overall, the evidence presented indicates that the net economic impacts of the Landcare Program in Bohol are positive, even when taking into account the prior investment in research and training. The major beneficiaries of the Program are the individual households who adopt the conservation farming practices, with these benefits largely generated by the farming opportunities stemming from improved soil stability. The diversification and commercialisation of the upland component of the farming system has mainly utilised land and labour at low opportunity cost, though limited access to these resources prevents some households from proceeding along the identified farm development pathway. The focus on livelihood development does not deny the seriousness of downstream watershed problems arising from upland agriculture. However, it is agued that given the relativity of on-site and off-site benefits, the focus and primary justification of the Landcare Program should remain on improving the productivity and livelihoods of upland farmers through facilitated, farmer-led, group-based research and extension, with these downstream impacts being seen as side benefits of what is essentially a livelihoods program.

Collaborative project delivery methods are believed to contribute to faster completions times, lower overall project costs and higher quality. Contracts are expected to influence the degree of collaboration on a given project since they allow or restrict certain lines of communication in the decision making process. Various delivery systems rank differently on the spectrum of collaboration. Because collaborative project delivery methods require owners and AEC stakeholders to meet frequently early in the delivery process, they are thought to add additional upfront costs to the project. The purpose of this study is to test if collaborative project delivery methods impart enough value so that the upfront cost incurred at the beginning of project is eventually surpassed by realized savings. Ideally, the extreme forms of project delivery methods, that is, Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) and Design-Bid-Build (DBB), should be compared to test the effects of collaboration on benefits to the owner. Due to difficulty in obtaining data on IPD and similarly scaled DBB projects, for this study, their close cousins, CM-at-Risk (CMR) and Competitive Sealed Proposal (CSP) were compared. The study engaged statistical comparison of cost of change orders and overall project cost performance of 17 CMR and 13 CSP projects of similar scales by same owner. Project cost performance observed under CMR projects was found significantly more than those under CSP. This study is expected to help boost confidence in the benefits of collaborative project delivery methods. It is likely that the results will encourage acceptance of IPD for public projects. Owners who were previously discouraged by the increased upfront cost of collaborative projects may also find interest in the results of this study.