New drug epidemics often unleash punitive campaigns to end them- highlighted by the 1980’s drug wars. However, the opioid crisis has been met with public-health driven policies, like clean needle programs and community-based substance abuse therapy. This thesis asks why policy responses to the opioid crisis are so different than those of the War on Drugs. First, as the cost of the drug war became clearer, policy makers across the political spectrum became less inclined to wage a new punitive war against opioids, especially as public-health responses proved to be more effective while also less costly. Second, the demographics of those addicted to opioids is different than those who were addicted to crack cocaine. The brunt of War on Drugs policies was felt by those in the lowest socioeconomic brackets and perpetuated poverty in low-income communities. Today’s softer approaches have been informed by a greater percentage of middle- to upper-class individuals affected by the opioid crisis. Third, as opioids have legitimate medical purposes, they are harder to demonize or ban, rendering it more difficult to declare total war against them. Further, the influence opioid manufacturers have has made policy makers less inclined to declare war, taking supply-side action. Public-health driven policies and policies that minimize supply-side action against pharmaceutical opioid manufacturers are duplicate representations of the United States’ departure from War on Drug tactics. As long as the “medical model” of health care, which emphasizes drugs, medical treatment, and surgery is ingrained in society and the economy, these patterns will continue.

<p>Background: Tougher demands from regulators on drugs efficiency and safety,governmental cost cutting and more complex areas of research, has led to that the importance of the pharmaceutical industry’s research pipelines are increasing. Even though the capital markets views on the pharmaceutical industry and its valuation is changing, the authors is not aware of any prior research that has been conducted on the topic of how the market reacts to clinical trial results or how security analysts valuates product pipelines.</p><p>Aim: This thesis aims to explain how security analysts valuate research pipelines and analyze whether the publication of clinical trial results significantly affects the pricing of multinational pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>Methodology: Three econometric models using an aggregate daily data sample of 27 years for five of the world’s largest pharmaceutical firms distinguish the price effects related to the publication of clinical trial results. Three interviews with security analysts map how security analysts value pharmaceutical research.</p><p>Results: Security analysts’ uses a combination of DCF and relative valuation when analyzing pharmaceutical firms. All interviewed analysts uses a risk adjusted net present value approach which is closely linked to the DCF approach, however, financial theory suggests that pipelines should be valuated with contingent claim models Analysts recognize that all compounds in Phase III and some Phase II projects has a impact on firm value. Clinical trials have a significant short-term impact on firm value. Phase III projects shows significant share price influence whilst early stage clinical trials do not, which shows that analysts are correct in focusing their valuation to later stage clinical trials. However, not all areas of therapy have a significant impact on firm value. Oncology is the only area of therapy where successes raises firm value, whilst failures in oncology and cardiovascular/gastrointestinal significantly lower firm value. Negative news about the research portfolio also tends to have a larger impact than positive news.</p>

Background: Tougher demands from regulators on drugs efficiency and safety,governmental cost cutting and more complex areas of research, has led to that the importance of the pharmaceutical industry’s research pipelines are increasing. Even though the capital markets views on the pharmaceutical industry and its valuation is changing, the authors is not aware of any prior research that has been conducted on the topic of how the market reacts to clinical trial results or how security analysts valuates product pipelines. Aim: This thesis aims to explain how security analysts valuate research pipelines and analyze whether the publication of clinical trial results significantly affects the pricing of multinational pharmaceutical companies. Methodology: Three econometric models using an aggregate daily data sample of 27 years for five of the world’s largest pharmaceutical firms distinguish the price effects related to the publication of clinical trial results. Three interviews with security analysts map how security analysts value pharmaceutical research. Results: Security analysts’ uses a combination of DCF and relative valuation when analyzing pharmaceutical firms. All interviewed analysts uses a risk adjusted net present value approach which is closely linked to the DCF approach, however, financial theory suggests that pipelines should be valuated with contingent claim models Analysts recognize that all compounds in Phase III and some Phase II projects has a impact on firm value. Clinical trials have a significant short-term impact on firm value. Phase III projects shows significant share price influence whilst early stage clinical trials do not, which shows that analysts are correct in focusing their valuation to later stage clinical trials. However, not all areas of therapy have a significant impact on firm value. Oncology is the only area of therapy where successes raises firm value, whilst failures in oncology and cardiovascular/gastrointestinal significantly lower firm value. Negative news about the research portfolio also tends to have a larger impact than positive news.

How are new scientific concepts of illnesses and disorder formed? The last fifty years have seen a dramatic increase in new diagnoses incorporated into medical manuals. The concept of the male menopause, or the andropause diagnosis, is suitable for studying how medical knowledge is produced, since it has alternated between being and not being part of the acknowledged medical knowledge since the beginning of the 19th century, when it was originally launched. After being rather unnoticed during the 20th century, the concept of the male menopause had a renaissance in the 1990s’. The andropause then became a specific research area, articles about the male menopause were widely published in medical journals, specific therapies were developed, and andropause clinics opened around the world. The thesis explores what combination of circumstances lay behind the establishment of the andropause as a scientific object in the 1990s’. The purpose was to find out what the institutionalization of the (concept of the) andropause shows about the production of science, specifically  medical knowledge. Methodologically, the study can be described as an analysis of ideas, where the ideas contained in the concept of a male menopause are in focus. Accordingly, the research materials were scientific literature, media, and other documents where the idea of a male menopause was expressed. The analysis was structured in four divisions. First, the andropause theory was studied to find any obvious scientific explanations, such as new knowledge or discoveries. “Pure science” could not explain the breakthrough of the andropause diagnosis, since the andropause theory is laden with uncertainties according to the scientific principles of evaluation that the medical science itself supports. Second, the social organization of the medical knowledge production was inquired with focus on the medical profession, and the andropause theory was found to offer new professional arenas. Third, factors outside profession and science were found, the extra scientific dimensions, primarily cultural conditions and social structures. The emergence of feminist theory was found to change the perception of men in the culture, where the male norm no longer is self-evident. Fourth, in the social structure, pharmaceutical companies were found to engage strongly in the andropause concept. Together these factors constituted the andopause as a scientific object. The thesis demonstrates: the advantage of a multi perspective analysis: the complexity of the development of concepts of disease: the weakness of the epistemology of evidence-based medicine: and the social and cultural foundation of science.