The species–area relationship (SAR) has been applied to predict species richness declines as area is converted to human-dominated land covers.In many areas of the world, however, many species persist in human-dominated areas, including threatened species. Because SARs are decelerating nonlinear, small extents of natural habitat can be converted to human use with little expected loss of associated species, but with the addition of more species that are associated with human land uses. Decelerating SARs suggest that, as area is converted to human-dominated forms, more species will be added to the rare habitat than are lost from the common one. This should lead to a peaked relationship between richness and natural area. I found that the effect of natural area on avian richness across Ontario was consistent with the sum of SARs for natural habitat species and human-dominated habitat species, suggesting that almost half the natural area can be converted to human-dominated forms before richness declines. However, I found that this spatial relationship did not remain consistent through time: bird richness increased when natural cover was removed (up to 4%), irrespective of its original extent. The inclusion of metapopulation processes in predictive models of species presence improves predictions of diversity change through time dramatically. Variability in site occupancy was common among bird species evaluated in this study, likely resulting from local extinction-colonization dynamics. Likelihood of species presence declined when few neighbouring sites were previously occupied by the species. Site occupancy was also less likely when little suitable habitat was present. Consistent with expectations that larger habitats are easier targets for colonists, habitat area was more important for more isolated sites. Accounting for the effect of metapopulation dynamics on site occupancy predicted change in richness better than land cover change and increased the strength of the regional richness–natural area relationship to levels observed for continental richness–environment relationships suggesting that these metapopulation processes “scale up” to modify regional species richness patterns making them more difficult to predict. It is the existence of absences in otherwise suitable habitat within species’ ranges that appears to weaken regional richness–environment relationships.

The species–area relationship (SAR) has been applied to predict species richness declines as area is converted to human-dominated land covers.In many areas of the world, however, many species persist in human-dominated areas, including threatened species. Because SARs are decelerating nonlinear, small extents of natural habitat can be converted to human use with little expected loss of associated species, but with the addition of more species that are associated with human land uses. Decelerating SARs suggest that, as area is converted to human-dominated forms, more species will be added to the rare habitat than are lost from the common one. This should lead to a peaked relationship between richness and natural area. I found that the effect of natural area on avian richness across Ontario was consistent with the sum of SARs for natural habitat species and human-dominated habitat species, suggesting that almost half the natural area can be converted to human-dominated forms before richness declines. However, I found that this spatial relationship did not remain consistent through time: bird richness increased when natural cover was removed (up to 4%), irrespective of its original extent. The inclusion of metapopulation processes in predictive models of species presence improves predictions of diversity change through time dramatically. Variability in site occupancy was common among bird species evaluated in this study, likely resulting from local extinction-colonization dynamics. Likelihood of species presence declined when few neighbouring sites were previously occupied by the species. Site occupancy was also less likely when little suitable habitat was present. Consistent with expectations that larger habitats are easier targets for colonists, habitat area was more important for more isolated sites. Accounting for the effect of metapopulation dynamics on site occupancy predicted change in richness better than land cover change and increased the strength of the regional richness–natural area relationship to levels observed for continental richness–environment relationships suggesting that these metapopulation processes “scale up” to modify regional species richness patterns making them more difficult to predict. It is the existence of absences in otherwise suitable habitat within species’ ranges that appears to weaken regional richness–environment relationships.

The species–area relationship (SAR) has been applied to predict species richness declines as area is converted to human-dominated land covers.In many areas of the world, however, many species persist in human-dominated areas, including threatened species. Because SARs are decelerating nonlinear, small extents of natural habitat can be converted to human use with little expected loss of associated species, but with the addition of more species that are associated with human land uses. Decelerating SARs suggest that, as area is converted to human-dominated forms, more species will be added to the rare habitat than are lost from the common one. This should lead to a peaked relationship between richness and natural area. I found that the effect of natural area on avian richness across Ontario was consistent with the sum of SARs for natural habitat species and human-dominated habitat species, suggesting that almost half the natural area can be converted to human-dominated forms before richness declines. However, I found that this spatial relationship did not remain consistent through time: bird richness increased when natural cover was removed (up to 4%), irrespective of its original extent. The inclusion of metapopulation processes in predictive models of species presence improves predictions of diversity change through time dramatically. Variability in site occupancy was common among bird species evaluated in this study, likely resulting from local extinction-colonization dynamics. Likelihood of species presence declined when few neighbouring sites were previously occupied by the species. Site occupancy was also less likely when little suitable habitat was present. Consistent with expectations that larger habitats are easier targets for colonists, habitat area was more important for more isolated sites. Accounting for the effect of metapopulation dynamics on site occupancy predicted change in richness better than land cover change and increased the strength of the regional richness–natural area relationship to levels observed for continental richness–environment relationships suggesting that these metapopulation processes “scale up” to modify regional species richness patterns making them more difficult to predict. It is the existence of absences in otherwise suitable habitat within species’ ranges that appears to weaken regional richness–environment relationships.

Developing consistent and repeatable broad-scale methods for biodiversity modelling is an important goal to address as habitat loss, fragmentation and environmental degradation threaten our ability to maintain ecosystem and species diversity levels. Geospatial reviews of biodiversity monitoring have identified ecological indicators for the indirect mapping of species richness and ecosystem components modelling the processes controlling species distribution gradients. The goal of our research is to advance broad-scale biomonitoring by demonstrating how landscape-scale environmental indices can be used to model regional ecosystem and species diversity of British Columbia (BC), Canada. We meet our ecosystem-modelling goal by selecting and developing suitable ecological indicators from Earth observation data and terrain indices to represent the structure, composition and function of the environment, displaying both static and dynamic landscape processes of BC’s ecosystems. We regionalize the selected indirect indicators of biodiversity using a two-step clustering algorithm. The results display 16 ecologically distinct terrestrial ecosystems, 10 of which characterize the northern Boreal, coastal and Southern Interior mountain regions, and six represent the coastal lowlands, interior, Georgia Depression, Boreal and Taiga Plains of British Columbia. Comparing our classification to BC Ministry of Forests biogeoclimatic zone mapping, we find spatial similarity in the coastal, Taiga and Boreal Plains. Overall, our classification distinguishes a greater diversity of ecosystems in the mountainous regions of the province and greater homogeneity in the Central Interior where our landscape characteristics represent current productivity conditions. Our approach to ecosystem modelling supports legacy mapping by providing ecological information in under-sampled regions of BC and offers a method for consistent repeat modelling of ecosystem diversity to identify landscape change. To meet our species-modelling goal we employ a flexible non-parametric regression tree model (Random Forests) to establish the power of landscape-scale indicators (productivity, ambient energy, and heterogeneity) to predict the spatial distribution of breeding bird richness and establish the dominant landscape processes controlling vertebrate richness throughout BC. Our models explain approximately 40% of the variation in survey effort stratified breeding bird species richness levels and distinguish ambient energy as the top ranked environmental predictors of breeding richness. Using our modelled relationships, we forecast breeding richness levels for the regions of BC not currently surveyed to support conservation management of birds and vertebrate species. The results identify the lowland, warm and dry regions of the Boreal, Taiga, South and Central Interior and the Georgia Depression to be species rich. These results have implications for conservation managers, as high breeding richness is also concentrated in the areas favourable to human settlement. Additionally, by connecting breeding bird data derived from remotely sensed data and continuously collected climate data, we provide an approach for monitoring ecological indicators as surrogates of vertebrate population levels over broad spatial scales. / Graduate

The species–area relationship (SAR) has been applied to predict species richness declines as area is converted to human-dominated land covers.In many areas of the world, however, many species persist in human-dominated areas, including threatened species. Because SARs are decelerating nonlinear, small extents of natural habitat can be converted to human use with little expected loss of associated species, but with the addition of more species that are associated with human land uses. Decelerating SARs suggest that, as area is converted to human-dominated forms, more species will be added to the rare habitat than are lost from the common one. This should lead to a peaked relationship between richness and natural area. I found that the effect of natural area on avian richness across Ontario was consistent with the sum of SARs for natural habitat species and human-dominated habitat species, suggesting that almost half the natural area can be converted to human-dominated forms before richness declines. However, I found that this spatial relationship did not remain consistent through time: bird richness increased when natural cover was removed (up to 4%), irrespective of its original extent. The inclusion of metapopulation processes in predictive models of species presence improves predictions of diversity change through time dramatically. Variability in site occupancy was common among bird species evaluated in this study, likely resulting from local extinction-colonization dynamics. Likelihood of species presence declined when few neighbouring sites were previously occupied by the species. Site occupancy was also less likely when little suitable habitat was present. Consistent with expectations that larger habitats are easier targets for colonists, habitat area was more important for more isolated sites. Accounting for the effect of metapopulation dynamics on site occupancy predicted change in richness better than land cover change and increased the strength of the regional richness–natural area relationship to levels observed for continental richness–environment relationships suggesting that these metapopulation processes “scale up” to modify regional species richness patterns making them more difficult to predict. It is the existence of absences in otherwise suitable habitat within species’ ranges that appears to weaken regional richness–environment relationships.

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