<p>Private investment in Botswana as well as a ratio to Gross Domestic Product has been falling in some periods of 1976-2003. Viewed against the background of growing evidence of a link between investment and economic growth, an inconsistent and downward trend in Botswana's private investment is a matter of concern. Several studies in developing countries emphasize the importance of macroeconomic policy in explaining variations in investment, an in particular, identify the microeconomic determinants of private investment to include interest rates, output growth, public investment, bank credit to the private sector, inflation, real exchange rate, and the level of trade. This study evaluated the macroeconomic determinants of private investment in Botswana by means of a regression analysis based on the co-integration and Error Correction Model of Engle and Granger (1987).</p>

<p>Private investment in Botswana as well as a ratio to Gross Domestic Product has been falling in some periods of 1976-2003. Viewed against the background of growing evidence of a link between investment and economic growth, an inconsistent and downward trend in Botswana's private investment is a matter of concern. Several studies in developing countries emphasize the importance of macroeconomic policy in explaining variations in investment, an in particular, identify the microeconomic determinants of private investment to include interest rates, output growth, public investment, bank credit to the private sector, inflation, real exchange rate, and the level of trade. This study evaluated the macroeconomic determinants of private investment in Botswana by means of a regression analysis based on the co-integration and Error Correction Model of Engle and Granger (1987).</p>

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study analyses the relationship between mineral rent and Botswana’s economic diversification. The analysis is done by; 1) providing an overview of Botswana’s economy and development, 2) explaining the economics of minerals, 3) describing Botswana’s mineral economy, 4) examining how mineral rent is generated and utilised in Botswana, 5) analysing the economic diversification of Botswana, 6) investigating constraints faced by Botswana in diversifying the economy, and 7) concluding by offering recommendations that can assist policy makers with decisions regarding economic diversification. The economic value of minerals is measured by the rent they earn. Rent is profit above the normal return on total investment and is due to the scarcity of minerals. Management of minerals to achieve sustainability requires that rent is recovered through various taxes and be invested in economic activities that can provide income and employment for the future generation. In Botswana, mineral rent is generated from royalty payments, profit taxes and withholding tax on remitted dividends. Total resource rent was estimated at P160 million in 1979, but by the 2008/09 financial year, rent had increased by more than tenfold and was estimated at P10.56 billion. Diamond mining generates most of the rent and accounts for most of all the economic value of minerals, between 98 percent and 99 percent from 2004 and 2009. Copper nickel is the second most important resource after diamonds with a contribution that is between 1.03 percent and 1.34 percent of total resource rent in the 2007/08 and 2008/09 financial years. Coal, gold and soda ash are much less valuable from an economic perspective. In the 1973/74 financial year, the mining industry contributed about 34 percent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices and a high of 48 percent in 2000/01, although contribution declined to 40 percent in 2007/08. The mining industry contributed about 90 percent to total exports in 2001. In the same year, diamonds contributed about 85 percent to total exports and about 95 percent to the mining sector’s exports. Since minerals took centre stage in the economy of Botswana, rent has been utilised to acquire foreign reserves abroad and finance development priorities such as the provision of health care, education and infrastructure. Part of the rent is also used to develop economic diversification through targeted initiatives that increase private sector involvement in economic activity. Even though that is the case, the Ogive Index shows that from 1973 to 2009, economic diversification has taken place, but at a slow pace. Slow economic diversification is a result of structural problems such as; a small domestic economy, high transportation costs, high cost of doing business, not fully benefitting from regional trade and vulnerability to transitional challenges like the economic crisis’. To overcome these problems, Botswana should benchmark in other mineral-rich countries to address internal capacity problems and production deficiencies. The country should also strive to benefit from international trade at a bilateral, regional and multilateral level. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie is die verhouding tussen mineraalontginningsurplus en Botswana se ekonomiese diversifikasie ontleed. Hierdie ontleding is gedoen deur 1) ’n oorsig te bied van Botswana se ekonomie en ontwikkeling; 2) die ekonomie van minerale te verduidelik; 3) Botswana se mineraalekonomie te beskryf; 4) die manier waarop mineraalontginningsurplus in Botswana gegenereer en benut word, te ondersoek; 5) die ekonomiese diversifikasie van Botswana te ontleed; 6) beperkings waarvoor Botswana te staan kom in die diversifikasie van die ekonomie te ondersoek; en 7) af te sluit met aanbevelings wat beleidmakers kan help met besluite oor ekonomiese diversifikasie. Die ekonomiese waarde van minerale word gemeet deur die ontginningsurplus wat dit verdien. Ontginningsurplus is wins bo die normale rendement van die totale belegging en is in gebruik weens die skaarste van minerale. Die bestuur van minerale vir volhoubaarheid vereis dat ontginningsurplus deur verskeie soorte belasting verhaal word en in ekonomiese aktiwiteite belê word wat inkomste en werkverskaffing vir die toekomstige generasies kan verskaf. In Botswana word mineraalontginningsurplus uit tantièmebetaling, winsbelasting en terughoubelasting op geremitteerde dividende gegenereer. Die totale hulpbronontginningsurplus is in 1979 op P160 miljoen geraam, maar teen die 2008/09- finansiële jaar het die ontginningsurplus tienvoudig vermeerder en is dit op P10.56 biljoen geraam. Diamantontginning genereer die meeste van die ontginningsurplus en is verantwoordelik vir die grootste gedeelte van die totale ekonomiese waarde van minerale – tussen 98% en 99% vanaf 2004 tot 2009. Nikkeliet is die tweede belangrikste hulpbron ná diamante,met ’n bydrae van tussen 1.03% en 1.34% van die totale hulpbronontginningsurplus in die 2007/08- en 2008/09- finansiële jaar. Steenkool, goud en soda-as is aansienlik minder waardevol vanuit ’n ekonomiese perspektief. In die 1973/74- finansiële jaar het die mynwese ongeveer 34% tot die bruto binnelandse produk (BBP) teen huidige pryse bygedra, met ’n hoogtepunt van 48% in 2000/01, alhoewel die bydrae tot 40% in 2007/08 afgeneem het. Die mynwese het ongeveer 90% tot totale uitvoere in 2001 bygedra. In dieselfde jaar het diamante ongeveer 85% tot totale uitvoere en ongeveer 95% tot die mynbedryf se uitvoere bygedra. Sedert minerale die kern van Botswana se ekonomie begin vorm het, is ontginningsurplus gebruik om buitelandse reserwes te verkry en ontwikkelingsprioriteite, soos die verskaffing van gesondheidsorg, opvoeding en infrastruktuur, te finansier. ’n Gedeelte van die ontginningsurplus word ook gebruik om ekonomiese diversifikasie te ontwikkel deur teikeninisiatiewe wat die privaat sektor se betrokkenheid by ekonomiese aktiwiteit bevorder. Ten spyte hiervan, toon die Ogive-index dat ekonomiese diversifikasie wel van 1973 tot 2009 plaasgevind het, maar dat dit teen ’n stadige pas geskied het. Stadige ekonomiese diversifikasie is ’n gevolg van strukturele probleme soos ’n klein binnelandse ekonomie, hoë vervoerkoste, hoë sakekoste, streekshandel waaruit voordeel nie ten volle verkry word nie en kwesbaarheid vir oorgangsuitdagings soos die ekonomiese krisis. Botswana moet met ander mineraalryk lande normeer om interne kapasiteitsprobleme en produksiegebreke die hoof te bied. Die land moet ook daarna streef om op ’n bilaterale, streeks- en multilaterale vlak uit internasionale handel munt te slaan.