Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Vincent Amanor-Boadu / Cargill Animal Nutrition is a global manufacturer and distributor of animal nutrition products. They operate in the United States through 6 separately managed regions that control a number of facilities throughout the entire United States. Cargill Animal Nutrition Southeast Region manages a network of eleven plants and two warehouses in the southeast part of the United States. The purpose of this thesis is to explain the current supply chain design including the relationships that exists between facilities, analyze the costs associated with the current design and relationships, and assess the feasibility of alternative designs of supply chain strategies available. A brief description of each facility along with production characteristics specific to each facility is given. Due to certain production characteristics, dependent relationships exist between certain plants. These relationships create restrictions to which our supply chain is subject. Other relationships are not as rigid and thus can be manipulated in pursuit of lowering overall supply chain costs. The model resulting from this thesis will facilitate the assessment of the feasibility of these changes. There are many costs associated with the supply chain; however, costs included in this analysis are limited to the costs that could vary when changing suppliers. The price of the product, transportation costs, and certain warehouse fees deemed relevant to this research are applied to the expected annual sales tons to reach a total cost of supply chain considering the assumptions made. The base scenario was defined according to known facts regarding the current design of our supply chain, which included identification of suppliers, supplier prices, transportation costs, and associated handling/warehouse fees, as well as determining the quantity of product that would need to flow throughout our supply chain. Then the total cost associated with the current supply chain design was assessed according to our analytical model. Once the total cost of the base scenario was determined, comparison to alternative scenarios could take place. Changing the relationships between locations of the supply chain results in alternative scenarios to which the analytical model and decision rule developed can be applied to determine feasibility of the alternative supply chain designs. Operating within the confines of the research, the total cost of the current supply chain design was determined to be $15,697,426. That total cost then serves as a base figure which can be used in comparison with the overall cost of alternative scenario #1. Scenario #1 resulted in a total cost of $15,447,597 – an annual savings of $249,828. Scenarios #2 through #4 were evaluated against the total cost of scenario #1. The total cost of scenario #2 is $15,421,364 which results in annual savings of $26,234. Scenario #3 results in a total supply chain cost of $15,347,888 which equates to annual savings of $9,710 in comparison to scenario #1. The final scenario in this study results in a total cost of $15,443,547. The annual savings generated by scenario #4 in comparison to scenario #1 are $4,050. The results indicate that there are alternative configurations of Cargill Animal Nutrition’s Southeast supply chain that can be developed to increase the competitiveness of operations and improve operational excellence through cost savings. These results are used to inform management in the implementation of the new goals that have been established for the organization. Further utilization of the tool developed will result in increased knowledge of the costs associated with supply chain design. This will allow the company to be able to understand the cost of their supply chain so they can benefit from decreased supply chain costs by reacting to changing market factors.

Master of Science / Department of Statistics / Haiyan Wang / Estimating unpaid liabilities for insurance companies is an extremely important aspect of insurance operations. Consistent underestimation can result in companies requiring more reserves which can lead to lower profits, downgraded credit ratings, and in the worst case scenarios, insurance company insolvency. Consistent overestimation can lead to inefficient capital allocation and a higher overall cost of capital. Due to the importance of these estimates and the variability of these unpaid liabilities, a multitude of methods have been developed to estimate these amounts. This paper compares several actuarial and statistical methods to determine which are relatively better at producing accurate estimates of unpaid liabilities. To begin, the Chain Ladder Method is introduced for those unfamiliar with it. Then a presentation of several Generalized Linear Model (GLM) methods, various Generalized Additive Model (GAM) methods, the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method, and a Bayesian method that link the Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods together are introduced, with all of these methods being in some way connected to the Chain Ladder Method. Historical data from multiple lines of business compiled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners is used to compare the methods across different loss functions to gain insight as to which methods produce estimates with the minimum loss and to gain a better understanding of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the methods. Key

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Brian Niehoff / The purpose of this thesis was to examine the relative efficacy of the incentive plan for loan officers within Farm Credit of the Virginia’s, ACA (FCV). The purpose of FCV’s incentive plan includes promoting firm financial growth and stability, employee retention, and encouraging teamwork. Incentive plans are important financial decisions for companies and these plans have upside potential and downside risk that should be considered in the decision making process. A literature review was conducted to analyze incentive practices and management theory in addition to a review incentive plans from other Farm Credit associations. A survey was also conducted to understand loan officer perceptions of the current incentive plan at FCV. The results of the survey provide insight into employee perceptions about job satisfaction, intrinsic motivation, extrinsic motivation, organizational commitment, understanding of the incentive plan, and timing of incentives. Finally, observations with regards to potential improvement in the incentive plan were provided.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / David Barton / The main objective of this thesis is to aid Ag Valley Cooperative’s board of directors in the construction of a superior income distribution and equity redemption strategy. The key information provided is a detailed financial analysis and pro forma financial projections. Ultimately, this study focuses on increasing patron value by returning retained patronage refunds in an equitable and timely manner. This paper examines the benefits of eliminating Ag Valley Cooperative’s current equity redemption program, age of patron, and replacing it with a revolving fund. Chapter 1 introduces Ag Valley Cooperative and gives a brief description of the cooperative’s business model. The chapter concludes with the study’s methodology. Chapter 2 briefly examines cooperatives and people who use them. This chapter introduces Cooperative Performance Profile, the financial analysis used in the study. The chapter concludes with a look at cooperative finance theory and equity management. Chapter 3 describes key points of the Cooperative Performance Profile and separates it into five groupings: profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and size. Analyses are conducted in each category on Ag Valley Cooperative’s historic trends and comparisons to other Nebraska cooperatives. In Chapter 4 Ag Valley Cooperative’s current equity redemption strategy is defined along with four pro forma analyses. The first strategy, S0, assumes the cooperative continues business as normal with estate and age of patron redemption methods. Strategies S1 and S2 interject balance sheet management constraints and revolving fund redemption into the projection. In S1, revolving fund equity redemption is added to distribute any excess equity redemption budget, in S2 the revolving fund method is phased in. Strategy S3 builds upon S2 with a look at the effects and tax consequences of distributing non-qualified equity or retained patronage refunds instead of qualified retained patronage refunds.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / As the U.S. economy has changed, the use of diesel vehicles has increased. With this increase, has come an increase in the demand of highly trained technicians to work on those vehicles. North Arkansas College of Harrison, AR is looking for opportunities to keep its program offerings current with the educational demands of its potential students. During the last few years, North Arkansas College has received requests to start a diesel vehicle maintenance program. This thesis analyzes the feasibility of a diesel vehicle maintenance program at North Arkansas College. To determine the feasibility of such a program, all major aspects of the potential program must be considered and analyzed. The key questions addressed are: what is the interest level in the community for a diesel vehicle maintenance program, what are the major capital costs of starting the program, what would the potential operating budget resemble, and how would the program fit into the current field of area diesel maintenance programs? To study the feasibility of a potential diesel vehicle maintenance program at North Arkansas College, four steps were completed. First, a survey was developed that measured the interest from potential students, prospective employers, and interested community members from the potential market of North Arkansas College. Second, research was done to understand how a potential diesel vehicle maintenance program would fit into the current marketplace of established diesel maintenance programs. This was done by researching and comparing area programs to the type of programs that North Arkansas College offers and the possible model of a potential diesel vehicle maintenance program. Next, research was conducted to estimate the capital costs of starting a diesel vehicle maintenance program, as well as the potential operating budget. This was done by developing blueprints of a potential floor plan, a building to house the program, and the potential areas of study in the program. Based on these blueprints, actual bids and estimates were collected to calculate potential capital and operating costs. Finally, analysis was conducted to determine if the outcomes of a potential diesel vehicle maintenance program would fulfill the mission of North Arkansas College. The analysis of the feasibility of a diesel vehicle maintenance program at North Arkansas College reveals that there is interest from all three parts of the community in starting a diesel vehicle maintenance program. The research also revealed that the program would be a fit in the marketplace if it was an affordable, three semester program that covered the basics of the diesel powered vehicle. Also, research of the potential costs and revenues of the program reveals that the program would be sustainable. Finally, a diesel vehicle maintenance program would have much synergy with the current programs already offered at North Arkansas College. In the end, the results suggest that it is worthwhile to move forward towards starting a diesel vehicle maintenance program.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Vincent Amanor-Boadu / The objective of the research is to understand the volatility of cotton acres and estimate planted acres based on the factors that drive volatility in the United States at a regional level. Estimating cotton acres is important so that demand for cotton seed and technology can be anticipated and the appropriate investments in cotton seed production can be made. Post Multi-Fiber Arrangement, the US cotton economy has entered a state of imperfect completion which makes cotton price, ending stocks and the relationship of cotton to other crops important in understanding volatility in cotton acres. Linear Regression, Random Forest and Partial Least Squares Neural Networks (PLS NN) were used to estimate cotton acres at a US and Regional Level. The modeling approaches used to estimate change in acres yielded similar performance for U.S. total, Southwest, and West. The PLS NN was slightly better for the Delta and Southeast, where more crop alternatives exist. Random Forest offered a different perspective on variable importance in all regions.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Bryan Schurle / Frito-Lay is part of the PepsiCo Family which makes some of the best known and top selling snack foods around. Frito-Lay is the dominant player in the salty snack category in the United States, with a 65 percent share of the market. Frito-Lay brands include Lay's, Ruffles, Tostitos, Sunchips, Fritos, Cheetos, and Doritos. The objective of the thesis is to analyze a potential project: installing a raw potato sorting system on a potato chip line. Part of the analysis will be to conduct a net present value analysis of the costs and benefits associated with the project. Currently the line runs with one full time employee that inspects the raw incoming potatoes for foreign matter and color. Recently, technology options are available that the company could add to the raw potato sorting function that could potentially reduce employee labor costs. This research project provides information regarding the system’s investment cost, maintenance requirements, labor savings, and finished product quality impact. As the business environment changes businesses must keep up with rapidly changing technology to be able to compete. A company that is able to compete will be able to survive in the market and sustain profitability. Capital expenditures need to be evaluated and adopted if they keep a company competitive or make a company more cost efficient. The analysis concluded that the investment of installing a raw potato sorting system would be profitable, earning a positive NPV and internal rate of return greater than Frito-lay’s cost of capital. I would recommend that Frito-Lay move forward with this investment.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Hospitality and Dietetics / Chihyung Ok and Betsy Barrett / The meeting industry has seen significant growth over the last few decades and has now become truly global. As the number of conferences increases and attendees have so many conferences to choose from, understanding how they evaluate the conference experience is more important than ever. Previous studies have focused on site selection factors, destination perception and image, economic impact, and meeting planner issues, not on the conference experience itself. Annual association conferences are lucrative because of the large number of attendees they bring to the host destination. In marketing and managing association conferences, host destinations and meeting convention organizers are increasingly interested in how attendees evaluate the conference experience. With the first conceptual model, this study sought to reveal the effect of perceived conference quality dimensions on conference experience quality dimensions. Academic association conference was taken as the context, and data were collected to validate the proposed models. A self-reported questionnaire was distributed to faculty members from twenty randomly selected universities in the United States who attended an academic association conference at least once within the past year. The hypotheses included in the conceptual model were examined based on responses from 370 faculty members in the United States. The proposed relationships were analyzed by using PLS-SEM analysis which involves evaluation of measurement model and structural model. The results indicated significant relationships among all conference specific dimensions (i.e., professional education and professional & social networking) and all conference experience quality dimensions (i.e., learning, self-esteem, and excitement). Moreover, all destination specific dimensions (i.e., site attractiveness, travelability, and site environment) had a significant relationship with excitement, but site attractiveness did not have a significant relationship with learning. With the second conceptual model, this study sought to verify the relationships among perceived conference value dimensions, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions. This study found that utilitarian value, hedonic value, and social value had significant effects on satisfaction and behavioral intentions. Given that understanding attendee behavior is critical in the meeting industry, this study benefits meeting planners and host destinations with information that allows them to maximize the conference experience for attendees, and attracting and retaining repeat attendees. The results indicated significant relationships among all conference specific dimensions (i.e., professional education and professional & social networking) and all conference experience quality dimensions (i.e., learning, self-esteem, and excitement). Moreover, all destination specific dimensions (i.e., site attractiveness, travelability, and site environment) had a significant interrelationship with excitement, but site attractiveness did not have a significant relationship with learning. With the second conceptual model, this study sought to verify the relationships among perceived conference value dimensions, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions. This study found that utilitarian value, hedonic value, and social value had significant effects on satisfaction and behavioral intentions. Given that understanding attendee behavior is critical in the meeting industry, this study benefits meeting planners and host destinations with information that allows them to maximize the conference experience for attendees, and attracting and retaining repeat attendees.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Sean Fox / The commodity markets have seen a great deal of volatility over the past decade, which, for those involved, has created many challenges and opportunities. Some of those challenges and opportunities are related to the behavior of the basis – the difference between the local cash price of grain and its price in the futures market. This thesis examines factors impacting basis for corn and soybeans at an Illinois River barge terminal, inland grain terminals in central Illinois, and in the Decatur processing market. Factors used to explain basis behavior include the price level of futures markets, the price spread in the futures market, transportation cost, local demand conditions, and seasonal patterns. Using weekly data on basis from 2000 to 2013, regression models indicate that nearby corn futures, futures spread, inverted market, days until expiration, heating oil futures, and some months are significant drivers of corn basis. For inland terminals and processor regression models nearby corn futures do not appear to have significant effects. Using the same parameters for soybean basis nearby soybean futures, futures spread, inverted market, heating oil and some months are significant drivers but days until expiration do not appear to have a significant effect.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Hospitality Management and Dietetics / Elizabeth Barrett / Water is essential for many aspects of daily life including restaurant operations and is necessary for generation and service of properly produced, safe food. However, water is becoming more scarce and expensive due to climate change, infrastructure needs, governmental budget constraints, and shifting water sources. The purpose of this study was to develop benchmarks for water usage and costs for casual dining restaurants (CDRs) in Kansas and identify demographics that may impact water usage and costs. The population for the study was the 952 CDRs in Kansas. Stratified random sampling selected 60 restaurants from five Kansas demographic regions. Data were collected from the local municipal water utilities, Kansas Department of Revenue, Google’s Place Page, and through telephone or on-site interviews with a manager. Results for 221 of 300 (74%) CDRs that responded indicated that on average 1,766 gallons of water were used each day per restaurant, 12.79 per gallons per day for each seat, 68 gallons per employee, and 0.73 gallons per interior square foot. These results were as much as 69% lower than those from a 2000 study conducted by Dziegielewski et al. Significant demographics that impacted water consumption were season of year, population (F= 9.763, p≤.001), menu (F= 2.921, p≤.035), type of ownership (F= 56.565, p≤.000), water source (F= 10.751, p≤.032), irrigation (F= 46.514, p≤.001) and days open (F= 6.085, p≤.000). A stepwise linear regression model (F= 33.676, p≤.000) found ownership (β= -.329, p ≤ 0.000), irrigation (β= -.290, p ≤ 0.000), and population (β= -.176, p ≤ 0.003) impacted water consumption. For water costs, CDRs paid an average of $6.54 per 1,000 gallons of water consumed and had mean annual expenses of $5,026 on revenues of $2,554,254 which was the equivalent of a water cost percent of 0.42. Demographics that impacted water costs were season of year, region (F = 3.167, p≤ 0.015), and water source (F = 4.692, p≤ 0.032). However, a stepwise linear regression model (F= 4.485, p ≤ 0.036) found only water source (β= -.152, p ≤ 0.036) was an indicator of the percentage of revenues related to cost of water. This study did identify benchmarks for water consumption and water costs that can be used in the future by restaurateurs. The primary limitations of the study were that results can only be generalized to casual dining restaurants in Kansas. Future studies can be conducted with different types of restaurants in Kansas and with CDRs in other areas.