A presente tese de doutorado estuda a economia regional brasileira através de três ensaios. No primeiro, de longo prazo, são investigadas as hipóteses de convergência de renda e formação de clubes de crescimento, por meio de modelos multivariados de componentes não observados, caracterizados como estocásticos. Os resultados mostram que, em nível regional, apenas o Centro Oeste teve trajetória convergente no período analisado. Em nível estadual, há poucas evidências de convergência dentro de cada região. Em relação á formação de clubes, encontra-se o mesmo padrão verificado na literatura empírica brasileira, ou seja, a existência de dois grupos distintos, um mais rico que a média, formado por alguns estados do Sul, Sudeste e Centro Oeste (mais Amazonas), e um mais pobre que a média, formado por estados do Norte e Nordeste. No segundo ensaio, de curto prazo, investiga-se a existência de ciclos conjuntos regionais no Brasil, através de modelos MS-VAR, caracterizados como não lineares. Os resultados mostram similaridades entre os ciclos dentro de cada região, embora entre as diferentes regiões existam dinâmicas distintas. Não obstante, a região Sudeste é a mais semelhante à economia nacional. Adicionalmente destaca-se, em um extremo, as dinâmicas semelhantes do Sul e Centro Oeste, embora a última com desempenho de curto prazo mais satisfatório. Do outro, a fraca conexão regional do Norte e Nordeste, tanto em relação ao país quanto internamente. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, executa-se um survey da literatura empírica regional brasileira, condicionado aos problemas de pesquisa abordados nos ensaios anteriores. Tanto em relação ao crescimento de longo prazo quanto no que diz respeito aos ciclos econômicos, a revisão mostra que os principais resultados obtidos na tese de doutorado são amplamente compatíveis com os observados pelas principais publicações brasileiras recentes. Adicionalmente, no terceiro ensaio, salienta-se a necessidade da literatura empírica considerar dois aspectos metodológicos que podem condicionar os resultados: o problema da unidade de área modificável (MAUP), caracterizado como um aspecto metodológico geral; e o problema de escolha ótima do parâmetro de suavização na estimação de uma função de núcleo Kernel, caracterizado como um aspecto metodológico específico. Em relação ao segundo ponto, ilustra-se empiricamente a questão com os mesmos dados utilizados nos dois ensaios anteriores, séries de PIB per capita estaduais, de 1985 a 2008. Os resultados confirmam a sensibilidade das conclusões aos valores dos parâmetros de suavização, bem como corroboram a formação de dois clubes de crescimento no Brasil. / In this doctoral thesis are developed three related essays addressing regional economy. In the first, the income convergence and the growth club formation is analysed thorough a long run perspective using multivariate models of unobserved components, which are characterized as stochastic. The results show that, at the regional level, only the Midwest region presents a converging trajectory. At the state level, there are little evidences of convergence within each region. Regarding the club formation, the found results are similar to the existing results in the Brazilian empirical literature. Two distinct groups were found. One is richer than the average including some states from the South region, Southeast region and Midwest region (plus Amazonas from the North region). And the other is poorer than the average, including the states from the North and Northeast regions. In the second essay, using short run data, the formation of common or combined cycles in the Brazilian regions was investigated using MS-VAR models, characterized as non-linear. The cycles within the regions show similarities, although between regions the dynamics are distinct. Nevertheless, the Southeast region is most similar to the national economy. Additionally it is worth to highlight, in one hand the similar dynamics of South and Midwest, despite the more satisfying performance of Midwest. On the other hand, the North and Northeast show a weak connection internally and with the national economy. In the third essay, a survey of the Brazilian empirical literature about regional studies was developed. For both, long run growth and economic cycles, the results that were found in this doctoral thesis are broadly consistent with those found in the main recent Brazilian publications. Additionally, in the third essay, two methodological aspects which might influence the results are stressed: the problem of the modifiable area unit (MAUP), characterized as a general methodological aspect; and the problem of optimal choice of the smoothing parameter in the estimation of a kernel function, characterized as a specific methodological aspect. The second point is illustrated empirically using the same data from the two previous essays (state GNP from 1985 to 2008). The results confirm the sensitivity of the conclusions to the values of the smoothing parameters, as well as supporter the formation to two growth clubs in Brazil.

A presente tese de doutorado estuda a economia regional brasileira através de três ensaios. No primeiro, de longo prazo, são investigadas as hipóteses de convergência de renda e formação de clubes de crescimento, por meio de modelos multivariados de componentes não observados, caracterizados como estocásticos. Os resultados mostram que, em nível regional, apenas o Centro Oeste teve trajetória convergente no período analisado. Em nível estadual, há poucas evidências de convergência dentro de cada região. Em relação á formação de clubes, encontra-se o mesmo padrão verificado na literatura empírica brasileira, ou seja, a existência de dois grupos distintos, um mais rico que a média, formado por alguns estados do Sul, Sudeste e Centro Oeste (mais Amazonas), e um mais pobre que a média, formado por estados do Norte e Nordeste. No segundo ensaio, de curto prazo, investiga-se a existência de ciclos conjuntos regionais no Brasil, através de modelos MS-VAR, caracterizados como não lineares. Os resultados mostram similaridades entre os ciclos dentro de cada região, embora entre as diferentes regiões existam dinâmicas distintas. Não obstante, a região Sudeste é a mais semelhante à economia nacional. Adicionalmente destaca-se, em um extremo, as dinâmicas semelhantes do Sul e Centro Oeste, embora a última com desempenho de curto prazo mais satisfatório. Do outro, a fraca conexão regional do Norte e Nordeste, tanto em relação ao país quanto internamente. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, executa-se um survey da literatura empírica regional brasileira, condicionado aos problemas de pesquisa abordados nos ensaios anteriores. Tanto em relação ao crescimento de longo prazo quanto no que diz respeito aos ciclos econômicos, a revisão mostra que os principais resultados obtidos na tese de doutorado são amplamente compatíveis com os observados pelas principais publicações brasileiras recentes. Adicionalmente, no terceiro ensaio, salienta-se a necessidade da literatura empírica considerar dois aspectos metodológicos que podem condicionar os resultados: o problema da unidade de área modificável (MAUP), caracterizado como um aspecto metodológico geral; e o problema de escolha ótima do parâmetro de suavização na estimação de uma função de núcleo Kernel, caracterizado como um aspecto metodológico específico. Em relação ao segundo ponto, ilustra-se empiricamente a questão com os mesmos dados utilizados nos dois ensaios anteriores, séries de PIB per capita estaduais, de 1985 a 2008. Os resultados confirmam a sensibilidade das conclusões aos valores dos parâmetros de suavização, bem como corroboram a formação de dois clubes de crescimento no Brasil. / In this doctoral thesis are developed three related essays addressing regional economy. In the first, the income convergence and the growth club formation is analysed thorough a long run perspective using multivariate models of unobserved components, which are characterized as stochastic. The results show that, at the regional level, only the Midwest region presents a converging trajectory. At the state level, there are little evidences of convergence within each region. Regarding the club formation, the found results are similar to the existing results in the Brazilian empirical literature. Two distinct groups were found. One is richer than the average including some states from the South region, Southeast region and Midwest region (plus Amazonas from the North region). And the other is poorer than the average, including the states from the North and Northeast regions. In the second essay, using short run data, the formation of common or combined cycles in the Brazilian regions was investigated using MS-VAR models, characterized as non-linear. The cycles within the regions show similarities, although between regions the dynamics are distinct. Nevertheless, the Southeast region is most similar to the national economy. Additionally it is worth to highlight, in one hand the similar dynamics of South and Midwest, despite the more satisfying performance of Midwest. On the other hand, the North and Northeast show a weak connection internally and with the national economy. In the third essay, a survey of the Brazilian empirical literature about regional studies was developed. For both, long run growth and economic cycles, the results that were found in this doctoral thesis are broadly consistent with those found in the main recent Brazilian publications. Additionally, in the third essay, two methodological aspects which might influence the results are stressed: the problem of the modifiable area unit (MAUP), characterized as a general methodological aspect; and the problem of optimal choice of the smoothing parameter in the estimation of a kernel function, characterized as a specific methodological aspect. The second point is illustrated empirically using the same data from the two previous essays (state GNP from 1985 to 2008). The results confirm the sensitivity of the conclusions to the values of the smoothing parameters, as well as supporter the formation to two growth clubs in Brazil.

Índices de confiança/expectativas são frequentemente utilizados pela mídia e pelo mercado com intuito de projetar o comportamento da economia. As expectativas dos agentes econômicos são peças relevantes, acredita-se, para explicar flutuações de produto e emprego, tanto moderadas como drásticas a exemplo das crises \".com\" e dos subprimes americanos. No Brasil, o tema passou a receber mais atenção devido à crise dos últimos anos.A estimação de um VAR com séries brasileiras de produto, consumo e expectativas sugere que de fato inovações nos índices de expectativas possuirão impactos de médio-longo prazo no consumo agregado e no PIB, além dos próprios índices. A partir dessa evidência, procura-se separar por meio de um modelo DSGE o quanto desses impactos se deve a fundamentos econômicos futuros antecipados pelos agentes e o quanto se deve a alterações momentâneas de humor, isto é, aos animal spirits. Os resultados sugerem que animal spirits e ruídos inerentes aos próprios índices são responsáveis por uma parte considerável da flutuação no período de 1-2 trimestres. Para horizontes iguais ou superiores a 2 trimestres, a antecipação de fundamentos econômicos passa a ser predominante. / Consumer confidence/expectation indexes are frequently used by the media and the market in order to forecast the behavior of the economy. Agents\' expectations are believed to explain output and employment fluctuations, either moderate or drastic as the \".com\" and the american subprime crisis. In Brazil, more attention has been drawn to this topic due to the recent economic crisis.The estimation of a VAR with brazilian data for consumption, output and expectations suggests that innovations to the expectation indexes do have impact on aggregate consumption and GDP in the medium/long-run, as well as the indexes themselves. Inspired by this evidence, a DSGE model is used in order to assess how much of these impacts are due to anticipation of future economic fundamentals and how much are due to animal spirits. The results indicate that animal spirits and index-specific noise are responsible for a non-negligible amount of fluctuations up to 2 quarters, whereas news of future economic conditions prevail on lower frequencies.

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's Great Recession in 2009. For this purpose, eight DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models; closed and open economy models; one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed comparable or better than most DSGE models in the crisis.

Abstract Standard macroeconomic models based on a representative firm ignore firm entry and exit. Therefore, these models miss a potentially significant channel of economic interactions through the firm dynamics. This doctoral thesis examines the role of firm dynamics in the economy through four essays. The first essay examines the impact of monetary policy on firm entry. The essay finds that substantial inertia exists in the firm entry process. Based on the empirical evidence on firm dynamics, the second essay develops a real business cycle model in which firm entry is endogenous and default rates are stochastic. The essay studies how default shocks affect the economy. We concentrate on the stochastic properties of the model and show that the stochastic default rate is a potential explanation for the observed low correlation between labor productivity and hours worked. The third essay contributes to the previous literature by studying how endogenous exit rates affect business cycle dynamics in an economy subject to technology and money supply shocks. The fourth essay concentrates on the impact of exchange rate shocks on competition and import prices. The paper finds weak evidence that the changes in competition after a currency devaluation increase import prices. However, this effect occurs only in the long run (i.e., one year after the shock), and its magnitude varies greatly across countries. / Tiivistelmä Tässä väitöskirjassa tutkitaan yritysten markkinoilletulon ja markkinoilta poistumisen vaikutuksia talouden dynamiikkaan. Väitöskirja koostuu neljästä erillisestä esseestä. Ensimmäisessä esseessä tutkitaan rahapolitiikan vaikutusta yritysten markkinoilletuloon. Siinä löydetään yritysten syntymiseen liittyviä kustannuksia, jotka hidastavat koko talouden sopeutumista rahapoliittiseen sokkiin. Toisessa esseessä tutkitaan stokastisen yritysten markkinoilta poistumisen vaikutuksia makrotaloudellisiin muuttujiin. Havaitaan, että yritysten poistuminen markkinoilta on mahdollinen selitys aikaisemmassa kirjallisuudessa todettuun työn tuottavuuden ja tehtyjen työtuntien väliseen alhaiseen korrelaatioon. Kolmannessa esseessä endogenisoidaan yritysten poistuminen markkinoilta ja tutkitaan teknologian ja rahapolitiikan sokkien vaikutusta yritysten konkurssien määrään. Neljännessä esseessä puolestaan tutkitaan, miten valuuttakurssimuutokset vaikuttavat ulkomaisten yritysten markkinoilletuloon ja hinnoitteluun. Esseessä löydetään heikkoja todisteita siitä, että valuuttadevalvaation jälkeinen ulkomaisen kilpailun muutos nostaa tuontihintoja. Tämä vaikutus ilmenee kuitenkin vasta yli vuoden kuluttua sokista, ja sen suuruus vaihtelee suuresti maittain.

Abstract The aim of this study is to deepen current understanding concerning cyclicality in the Finnish sawmill industry. Traditionally, economic actors in the sawmill industry have faced dramatic price and demand fluctuations. Managers often regard cyclicality as natural and unavoidable in the industry. Accordingly, research related to business cycles in the Finnish sawmill industry has consisted of short-term studies that have mainly focused on predicting the turning points of cycles. In contrast to these short-term investigations, this study proffers research on cyclicality that is both empirical and historical. It aims to emphasise the actor perspective that seems to be absent in existing research on business cycles and cyclicality. In line with the adopted perspective, business cycles are not merely objective economic phenomena external to their observers. As regards the research, the above view necessitates a more complete understanding of business cycles and historical knowledge of the industry and the actors in its supply chain. The idea that heavy economic fluctuation is detrimental to all is emphasised in this thesis, though it has been argued that in the short term, some actors at the lower end of a distribution chain may take advantage of cyclicality by game playing. However, in the long run there are very few actors, if any, who profit from business cycles. The empirical data was primarily collected during a number of discussions with sawmill experts and in essence, the problem of cyclicality is observed through the eyes of Finnish sawmill managers. However, interviews with intermediaries as well as many public statistics and archive documents were also used to describe and explain the economic fluctuations over three decades in the industry. Industry-, supply chain- and dyadic business relationship-levels are used in the empirical and theoretical parts of the thesis. Business cycle theories by economists form the context for the study of cyclicality. Systems thinking presents the total picture of cyclicality as a problem in a specific industry, whereas the Bullwhip/Forrester effect describes cyclicality in a supply chain, and explanations for cyclicality in the Finnish sawmill industry are studied in terms of supply chain management. In particular, the presented sub-cases of dyadic business relationships shed light on the power of long-term business relationships as a smoothing-out strategy. The findings of this study reveal that there is another option for managers other than considering the cycles as being "natural", and that there is an opportunity to affect the traditional mode of behaviour in coping with business cycles. It is argued that the structures, behavioural patterns and management components of supply chain management play major roles when the sources of cyclicality and opportunities to moderate business cycles are investigated.

Controversy currently exists over whether abnormal returns (ARs) are earned by shareholders of bidder and target banks through a Merger and Acquisition (M&A). The state of the economy in which the firms operate is often mentioned as a reason for firms engaging in M&As, however, the extent to which economies influence the ARs of shareholders is unknown. Following MacKinlay (1997), the aim of this study is to determine the average ARs earned or lost by shareholders of several banks around the world during an M&A. The results obtained may indicate that shareholders of bidding firms consider an M&A to be a wealth-destroying event irrespective of the state of the economy. It would seem that target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-creating events when they occur during a period of real economic expansion. However, during periods of real economic contraction, target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-destroying events. Thus, the state of an economy during an M&A can affect average ARs considerably.

The study’s main concern was the extent to which the price earnings (P/E) valuation model and constant growth dividend discount valuation model (DDM) can estimate the intrinsic value of a share. The context within which the concern was addressed is the boom and recession conditions of South Africa during the period 1994–1999. The study used the following descriptive statistics to make a comparison of the performance of each model: <ul><li> Theil’s inequality coefficient; </li><li> coefficient of variation; </li><li> percentage improvement in the inter-quartile range (%IMP); and</li><li> the Wilcoxon test and the Kruskal-Wallis test. </li></ul> The study found that: <ul><li> the DDM is more efficient in estimating the intrinsic value in the boom period compared to the recession period. </li><li> P/E is more efficient in estimating the intrinsic value in the recession period than the boom period. </li><li> When the business cycle changed from a boom to a recession the %IMP increased for the DDM and the P/E model showing that there was no improvement in performance. Instead, it showed an increase in the IQR of each model. The increase in the DDM was smaller than that of the P/E model. </li><li> The difference between the absolute valuation errors of the DDM across the two phases of the business cycle (boom and recession) was not statistically significant while those of the P/E were significant. </li></ul> / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Financial Management / unrestricted

The master's thesis critically analyses the works of John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich August von Hayek concering the explanation of business cycles based on monetary determinants. The analysis is primarily based on J. M. Keynes's Treatise on Money (1930) and Prices and Production (1935) author of which is F. A. Hayek. The thesis, on one hand, refutes the main explanation of the cause of business cycles of the Austrian business cycle theory and, on the other hand, it argues the imcompatibility of the main analytical tool of Treatise with the theory of innovation by J. A. Schumpeter.

There are two key observations in international macroeconomics which pertain to output and real exchange rate dynamics. First, fluctuations in national output around its long-run growth path are very persistent. Second, fluctuations in real exchange rates are very persistent. The sticky price framework offers an explanation for both phenomena. The first and second essay of this thesis take an empirical approach to test the predictions of this framework. In the first essay I test the prediction of the sticky price model for output dynamics using annual IFS data on 51 countries over the period 1950 -1996. The model predicts that price stickiness should be less important in high inflation countries and therefore output fluctuations less persistent. I find that, this inverse relationship is statistically insignificant in the international data. A similar result holds for OECD countries. In the empirical implementation I explicitly control for the within-country time variation in inflation by first characterizing the inflationary environment using the long-run movements in inflation (trend inflation), and secondly, by excluding episodes of hyperinflation. The analysis shows that when the within-country time variation in inflation is ignored, there is support for the prediction. For instance, the inverse relationship between persistence in deviations of output from its long-run growth path and average inflation is statistically significant in the full sample. However, the exclusion of a few episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. In the second essay I investigate the prediction of the sticky price model for real exchange rate dynamics using annual IFS data on 49 countries over the period 1972-1996. The model predicts that deviations of real exchange rates from purchasing power parity should be less persistent, in high inflation countries. The empirical analysis reveals that the support for such an inverse relationship is extremely fragile. In particular, eliminating episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. The lack of evidence in favour of the two predictions of the sticky price model is problematic since this model is extensively used as a microfoundation for understanding output and real exchange rate fluctuations. In the third essay I take a structural approach to qualitatively explore the role of slow diffusion of new products in propagating the effect of technology shocks on output. I present a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the creation of new products requires real resources. These products are beneficial for the economy but only upon complete diffusion. However, this diffusion is not instantaneous. I find that relative to a model in which there is instantaneous diffusion of new products, the qualitative output dynamics are similar to what is observed in the U.S. data. This warrants further quantitative investigation. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate