Many economists and politicians have blamed fixed exchange rate regimes for several crises taking place in developing countries after the 1980s. According to them, since the beginning of the 2000s, widespread implementation of flexible exchange rate regimes and high international reserves have prevented developing countries from experiencing similar catastrophic experiences. This interpretation seems to be misleading. We believe that even flexible exchange rate regimes with high international reserves do not have a magic to prevent a financial crisis. Although flexible exchange rate regimes and high international reserves might have played some positive roles in the relatively calm period of 2001-2008 / the main reason behind the calmness of this period is the fact that developing countries did not face a strong financial shock during this period. In the presence of &ldquo / safe havens&rdquo / , which implies existence of safe developed countries for financial capital to move into, flexible exchange rate regimes and the accumulated large reserves may not be adequate when a wave of financial shocks, as in the form of sudden stops and capital reversals, hit developing countries. Indeed, the absence of safe heavens and very low yields in developed countries eased the pressure on developing countries during the recent financial crisis of 2008-2009. If developed economies get their safe haven status back, developing countries might face new financial shocks. In this sense developing countries would experience new financial crises in this new period. We will elaborate on the possible conditions of these prospective financial crises in this thesis.

This study investigates the domestic and external determinants of net capital flows to Turkey. The results of the Johansen cointegration analyses indicate that capital flows to Turkey increase in response to increases in domestic real interest rate, domestic real income growth, and budget balance / appreciation of domestic currency / and decreases in financial fragility and the US real interest rates. It can be said that, higher domestic real returns and improved country creditworthiness attract more foreign capital flows to Turkey. In addition, the decreases in world interest rates enable Turkey to enjoy higher capital flows. The findings are theory consistent and data-acceptable.

This thesis analyzes the factors that determine the portfolio investments to Turkey in the period from 1989:04 to 2008:12. The factors that are examined are budget balance, current account balance, nominal exchange rate between the Turkish Lira and the US dollar, Turkish domestic interest rate, US 3-months Treasury Bill rate, annual inflation rate in Turkey and ISE 100 Index. A Vector Autoregressive Model is used for the purpose of examining the impacts of these variables on the level of portfolio investments to Turkey. The results of the model show that the portfolio investment in Turkey was affected positively by domestic interest rates and negatively by ISE 100 Index in the period before 2001. On the other hand, it is affected positively by exchange rate and US interest rate in the post-crisis period. It is also found that current account deficit affect portfolio investments negatively.

The world we live in is increasingly integrated. For the work of economists, increasing international integration bears a significant importance. The present thesis is essentially a work on International Economics. As such it is no exception in that it consists of different chapters, all of which address different issues in the field. The first two chapters are theoretical in nature, whereas the third is empirical. The last chapter provides a technical reference to mathematical problems encountered in the first chapter. The first chapter is concerned with one of the negative effect of international trade: terms-of-trade uncertainty. It asks (and answers) the question why economic agents in practice fail to (completely) hedge away foreign price uncertainty in the presence of well-developed forward markets, even though theoretically they should obtain a full-hedge. The second chapter explores some of the effects international capital flows bring to a country that opens up its capital account. The third chapter describes the evolution of international capital flows and trade flows over that last decade. The last chapter is concerned with the existence of explicit demand schedules under expected utility maximization when the random variable is nonlinearly transformed. / Die Welt in der wir leben ist durch zunehmende Integration in fast allen Bereichen des Lebens gekennzeichnet. In der ökonomischen Sphäre wird diese zunehmende Integration auch oft mit dem Begriff Globalisierung beschrieben. Zwei Hauptmerkmale der Globalisierung sind dabei zunehmende internationale Kapital- und Handelsströme. Die vorliegende Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit ausgesuchten Teilaspekten dieser Phänomene. "Warum sichern sich die Wirtschaftssubjekte in der Praxis nur unvollständig gegenüber Wechselkursrisiken ab, obwohl sie theoretisch eine vollständige Absicherung wählen sollten?", "Welchen Einfluß hat die Herkunft von Kapital auf die Ökonomie?" sowie "Wie ist der empirische Befund zur Entwicklung von Handels- und Kapitalströmen in der letzten Dekade?" sind Fragen denen die vorliegende Arbeit nachgeht. Ein Kapitel mit Ergebnissen zur Existenz von expliziten Nachfragefunktionen unter Erwartungsnutzenmaximierung bei zugrundeliegender nichtlinearer Transformation der Zufallsvariablen (eine Fragestellung die im Rahmen der Bearbeitung von Kapitel 1 auftaucht) beschliesst die Arbeit.

This dissertation describes and analyzes the financial boom that made Russia the largest net international debtor in the world by 1914, as well as the Bolshevik default of 1918 -- one of the biggest in international financial history. For the Bolsheviks the default was a highly significant attack on "finance capital." Yet few historians have paid much attention to the financial history of the Russian Revolution. This study focuses in particular on the decision-making of the small but influential group of financiers and government officials who acted as the "gatekeepers" of international finance, channeling international capital to Russia in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. / History

The purpose of this study is to develop deeper understanding of the informal contributions of employees to organisational success; more specifically, the exchange ‘mechanism’ by which resources accrue to organisations through the social relationships of their members. The second purpose is to explore the influence of organisational contextual factors on this exchange mechanism; more specifically, the influence – if any – of contingent employment practices. Through the use of a qualitative research design, I have gained an in-depth understanding of the cognitive mechanism employed by organisational actors to arrive at a decision on whether or not to initiate social exchange, in order to facilitate the flow of organisational social capital. Data was analysed using Dimensional Analysis method. This analysis draws on the theoretical perspectives of interpretivism and symbolic interactionism, both of which are underpinned by a social construction epistemology. This provides the necessary link for understanding the connections between macro- and micro-level social action of social exchange in organisational settings. My findings identify a complex cognitive process employed by actors for the purpose of reaching a decision with respect to initiating social exchange in organisational settings. This process is termed Social Exchange Transaction Analysis. It is undertaken at the individual level and ultimately controls the flow of organisational social capital through a social network to the organisation. This complexity is a reflection of both the many dimensions of the phenomenon, and the interconnectedness and interactions between them. Social Exchange Transaction Analysis builds an ‘analytical’ picture of the potential social exchange transaction, to enable the organisational actor to arrive at a decision on whether or not to initiate social exchange – and thereby facilitate the flow of organisational social capital.

In the latest time, the US has had an easy Monetary Policy. Because of the increasing link among the countries through interconnections on international trade, financial, and labor markets, such policy has not only had effects in the US economy, but also in the rest of the world. So many countries, especially emerging and developing countries, have suggested that such a policy has been causing an excessive flow of funds out of the US which are disrupting the exchange rate and competitiveness of those countries. An innovation of the analysis is that capital flows are divided in "Firm related" (direct investment and equity flows) and "Debt" (debt instruments and private loans obtained from foreign financial institutions). Another innovation is related to the measure of the external factors considering the US alone and a compound of Advanced Countries (AC) that includes: the US, European Union, United Kingdom, and Japan. The performed analysis indicates that the US Monetary Policy has been having a role on the determination of the capital flows to the Latin America Countries (LAC). However, these external "push factors" have been less important than the "pull factors" from Latin America. In the model, the "push factors" reflected to have had influence on the total capital flows, especially through the global liquidity proxies measured by the growth of the monetary stock in the AC. Holding all other things constant, one percent increase in the monetary stock in the US will generate capital flows to the LAC for an amount between 0.47 to 1.71 percentages of GDP. This effect is bigger when using the proxy constructed with the US alone than when using the compound of AC. The long term interest rate registered significance only on the "Firm related" type of capital flows and only when using the compound of AC. The performed analysis also indicates that there is preeminence of the "pull" (domestic) over the "push" (external) factors. This means that the LAC have been pursuing actions such as political stability, sound and consistent economic policies, and more market oriented policies that are attracting capital flows by themselves.

Cette thèse aborde différents sujets ayant trait aux liens entre l’économie réelle et l’économie financière au sein de l’économie internationale. Trois essais abordent ces liens selon différentes perspectives aussi bien micro que macro-économiques. Le premier chapitre, co-écrit avec Jean-Charles Bricongne et Sebastian Franco-Bedoya, évalue l’arbitrage proximité-concentration avec des entreprises multi-produits afin d’identifier le type de lien (complémentarité ou substituabilité) entre les exportations et les IDE. Tandis que les modèles d’IDE horizontal prédisent qu’IDE et exportations se substituent du fait de l’arbitrage proximité-concentration, une majorité d’études empiriques met en évidence leur complémentarité. [...]Le deuxième chapitre examine empiriquement le rôle du développement financier dans l’évolution du produit marginal du capital (MPK) dans 50 pays et sa relation avec leurs besoins de finance externe, en lien avec leur production manufacturière durant la période 1995-2008. En se fondant sur des données sectorielles au niveau des pays, les résultats de ce chapitre montrent que la spécialisation dans des secteurs intensifs en finance externe contribue de manière positive au MPK des pays développés et de manière négative dans les pays en développement. Cette relation devient légèrement positive uniquement lorsque le système financier est suffisamment développé dans ces derniers ; ces pays étant généralement caractérisés par des systèmes financiers largement moins efficaces en comparaison avec des pays développés. [...] Le troisième chapitre, co-écrit avec Jean-Charles Bricongne et Fabrizio Coricelli étudie la transmission des chocs mondiaux pendant la Grande Récession et son impact sur l’emploi français. En particulier, nous examinons le rôle du crédit commercial (ou inter-entreprises) dans la propagation des chocs transfrontaliers. En se fondant sur un sous-échantillon des entreprises importatrices économiquement actives sur la période 2004-2009, nos résultats suggèrent que des entreprises ayant de forts liens commerciaux avant la crise avec les pays qui ont le mieux résisté aux chocs économiques, ont eu une meilleure performance au niveau de la croissance de l’emploi entre 2008 et 2009. Cet effet varie considérablement en fonction de l’intensité du crédit commercial. Une forte dépendance au crédit commercial avant la crise s’est traduite par une vulnérabilité plus forte aux chocs imprévus pour les entreprises, pour lesquelles l’impact négatif de la crise a été exacerbé. Cet effet a été intensifié pour les entreprises ayant des liens commerciaux importants avec les pays les plus affectés par des chocs. A l’inverse, l’effet négatif de la crise a été atténué lorsque les relations commerciales étaient plus fortes avec des pays où les chocs ont été les moins sévères. Suggérant par conséquent, que le crédit commercial a été une source alternative de financement pour les entreprises françaises importatrices lors de la crise, du moment où leurs fournisseurs internationaux leur ont permis de surmonter les contraintes financières liées aux chocs imprévus en leur accordant un délai de paiement plus important. Les résultats de cette analyse contribuent au débat dans la littérature sur le rôle du financement du commerce international dans le ralentissement de l’activité économique réelle à travers les frontières. / Two particular concerns in international economics motivate this research: I. How are real and financial activities related to each other in a globalized economy? II. What role do financial frictions play in this relationship ? Three essays look at these questions from different perspectives. The first chapter, in collaboration with Jean-Charles Bricongne and SebastianFranco-Bedoya, revises the old question on the relation between FDI and exports on French firms, where theory seems to be at odds with empirical findings. Most FDI and most trade take place between rich markets, where the horizontal investment type is expected to happen. In this sense, empirical studies have almost invariably found a complementarity relation while standard Horizontal FDI models predict substitutability between FDI and exports given the proximity-concentration trade-off. [...]The second chapter empirically examines how external financial needs measured at the sector level- and financial development at the country level interact to shape the aggregate marginal product of capital of a country (MPK) and its foreign direct investment inflows (FDI). First, using new available data we construct annual aggregate MPK for 50 developing and developed countries during 1995-2008; we use industry-level data to construct an annual country-level measure of external financial dependence and assess its effects on MPK conditional on the level of financial development. Our findings imply that financial development seems to be a necessary condition -and certainly not a sufficient one- in order for production in financially dependent sectors to positively affect aggregate MPK in developing countries. Second, using bilateral FDI inflows in developing countries between 2001 and 2010, we analyze how external financial dependence and financial development determine FDI in flows in developing countries. [...]The third chapter, joint research with Jean-Charles Bricongne and Fabrizio Coricelli, studies the transmission of global shocks during the Great Recession and its impact on French employment. Particularly, we explore the role of trade credit in the propagation of cross-border shocks. Using a sub-sample of importing enterprises that were active over 2004-2009,our findings imply that strong pre-crisis sourcing ties with countries that were more resilient to the global crisis, translated into better performance in terms of employment growth over 2008-2009. This effect dramatically varies with trade credit intensity. Strongly relying on trade credit made firms more vulnerable to unanticipated shocks, for which the adverse impact of the crisis was exacerbated. This effect intensified among firms with important sourcing ties with severely shocked countries. While the negative effect of the crisis was mitigated when sourcing relations with countries subject to milder shocks were stronger. Supporting, therefore, the hypothesis that trade credit was an alternative source of financing for enterprises during the crisis, where implicitly borrowing from suppliers helped importers overcoming financial constraints. Our contribution to the literature adds to the debate on the role of trade finance in explaining the real economic downturn across borders.

O presente trabalho busca avaliar os efeitos da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira sobre variáveis macroeconômicas como oferta de crédito ao setor privado, produto nominal, reservas internacionais, risco-país, taxa de juros e volatilidade cambial, no decorrer do período que vai de 1995 a 2014, por meio da estimação de dois modelos econométricos assentados em Vetores Autorregressivos: o primeiro com Mudanças Markovianas de Regime (MS-VAR), e o segundo com correção de erros vetorial (VEC). Além disso, realiza revisão da literatura teórica e empírica acerca da liberalização financeira externa e seus desdobramentos; apresenta os indicadores de abertura (ICC) - presente nos trabalhos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) e Cunha e Laan (2013), dentre outros - e de integração financeira (IIF); e expõe a história do processo brasileiro de liberalização financeira. No que tange aos resultados, ambas as metodologias econométricas apontam que: uma reversão do ciclo financeiro global impacta negativamente as duas dimensões da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira; um avanço da desregulamentação não gera efeitos significativos, o que contrasta com a posição favorável à plena conversibilidade da conta capital e financeira, defendida por Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); um aumento no grau de integração financeira engendra desdobramentos macroeconômicos problemáticos. No que tange ao modelo MS-VAR, sublinha-se que as consequências de um choque liberalizante são mais profundas em momentos de reversão do ciclo financeiro global, bem como que a endogeneidade dos controles, nos termos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), é contingente à fase vigente do ciclo financeiro global. Quanto ao modelo VEC, destaca-se a precedência, no sentido de Granger, da variação da volatilidade financeira internacional frente à variação grau de integração financeira da economia brasileira, e deste frente à variação do risco-país. Conclui que, se não é possível descartar os benefícios da abertura financeira, há que se redobrar a atenção frente a seus riscos, considerando também as consequências negativas em termos de grau de integração financeira e a influência do ciclo financeiro global. / This study aims to evaluate the external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy on macroeconomic variables such as country risk, credit supply to the private sector, exchange rate volatility, interest rate, international reserves and nominal product, during the period from 1995 to 2014, by estimating two Vectors Autoregressive econometric models: the first with Markov-Switching (MS-VAR), and the second with Vector Error-Correction (VEC). In addition, this study aimed to: conduct a review of theoretical and empirical literature about external financial liberalization and its consequences; present financial opening index (ICC) - present in the work of Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) and Cunha and Laan (2013), among others - and financial integration index (IIF); and exposing the history of Brazilian process of financial liberalization. With respect to the results, both econometric methodologies show that: a reversal of the global financial cycle adversely impacts the two dimensions of external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy; an advance of deregulation does not generate significant effects, in contrast to the position in favor of capital account full convertibility, advocated by Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); an increase in financial integration creates problematic macroeconomic developments. Regarding the MS-VAR model, it points out that the consequences of a liberalizing shock are deeper in times of reversal of global financial cycle and that the endogeneity of capital controls, from Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), is contingent on current phase of the global financial cycle. Regarding the VEC model, there is precedence, in Granger terms, of the international financial volatility variation over the Brazilian economy financial degree variation, and from it to country risk variation. It is concluded that if it cannot be dismissed the benefits of financial openness, we must exercise caution against its risks, also considering the negative consequences in terms of financial integration degree and the influence of global financial cycle.

Magister Economicae - MEcon / A possible effect of quantitative easing (QE) undertaken by the United States of America (USA) Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) may have been an increase in capital flowing into emerging market economies (EMEs). The 2008 global financial crisis created an environment in which traditional monetary policies – cutting policy rates – became ineffective in stimulating growth. Faced with this policy environment, several high-income countries including the USA resorted to unconventional monetary policies notably QE, to grow their economies. While QE was effective in lowering interest rates in high-income countries, some argued that investors switched to higher yielding assets, mostly EME assets. Therefore, QE is perceived to have increased capital flows into EMEs. Using a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects this mini-thesis investigates empirically whether QE worked through unobservable channels to increase gross private capital inflows to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) in the period 2000-2015. The study finds evidence in support of the view that QE increased capital inflows to EMEs. The results reveal that gross private capital inflows to the BRICS increased during the QE intervention period and that the increase was higher in the first period of QE than in subsequent QE periods. The empirical results also reveal differences in the way types of capital flows responded to QE; portfolio flows, and in particular equity flows were the most responsive to QE. / 2018-12-14