Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-03-17T11:54:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Andreia Marques Duarte.pdf: 1507570 bytes, checksum: 2c878c80efbb6b35d05ed823e6fdd271 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-17T11:54:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Andreia Marques Duarte.pdf: 1507570 bytes, checksum: 2c878c80efbb6b35d05ed823e6fdd271 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-09 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This thesis concerns about the main factors that had influenced capital flows to Brazil during the period 2008-2015, particularly the foreign portfolio investment flows. Highlighting within the internal factors the difference between interest rates, the international reserves increasement and the rise up on investment grade by Credit Rating Agencies, and among external factors, the increase in international liquidity provided by the monetary easing policies adopted in the developed countries. Will be unveiled the context of the international financial crisis that began in the United States in mid-2007 and the repercussion and impacts for Brazil in terms of external financial fragilization from the perspective of Minsky's Financial Fragility Hypothesis / O presente trabalho analisa os principais fatores que exerceram influência sobre os fluxos de capitais direcionados ao Brasil ao longo do período 2008-2015, particularmente os fluxos de investimento estrangeiro em portfólio. Destacam-se dentre os fatores internos o diferencial da taxa de juros, o aumento das reservas internacionais e a elevação ao grau de investimento pelas agências de classificação de risco e entre os fatores externos a ampliação da liquidez internacional propiciada pelas políticas de flexibilização monetária adotadas nos países centrais. Será desvelada a contextualização da crise financeira internacional, iniciada nos Estados Unidos em meados de 2007 e a repercussão e impactos para o Brasil em termos de fragilização financeira externa sob a ótica da Hipótese da Fragilidade Financeira de Minsky

Venture capital (VC), a historically American industry, has been in the process of globalizing in recent years. International venture capital flows (investing outside of one’s own country) have grown substantially over the past 30 years and even more dramatically in just the past decade. Previous research has mostly highlighted the determinants of where capital flows. However, research on the factors in a VC’s home country that affect investments abroad has been underdeveloped. To address this gap, this paper explores the impact of home country economic conditions on VCs’ propensity to invest abroad. I find that higher interest rates and economic wellbeing in a country (as measured by GDP growth and stock market capitalization to GDP) are associated with less deal flow abroad and, that higher foreign exchange rates are related to greater deal flow. I also note an interesting divergence in the role of these factors between VCs located in countries that exhibit different levels of international investing experience. My research indicates that VCs’ home country economic conditions do play a role in their decisions to invest abroad and suggests that these considerations may be different depending on the experience level of the VC industry in the firm’s country.

La mise en place de la politique monétaire non conventionnelle en 2008 aux États-Unis a coïncidé avec d'importants mouvements de capitaux et de taux de change dans les pays émergents. Ces derniers ont accusé la banque centrale américaine d'adopter une politique « d'appauvrissement du voisin » et de créer ces effets de report. En 2013, à la suite de l'annonce du ralentissement graduel du rythme de cette politique monétaire, certains pays émergents ont subi d'importantes crises financières. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse se propose d'étudier dans quelle mesure la politique monétaire non conventionnelle de la Réserve fédérale américaine a induit des effets de report en termes de mouvements de capitaux et de taux de change. Alors que la normalisation de cette politique monétaire est entamée, il est primordial de comprendre les implications internationales des décisions de la Réserve fédérale pour pouvoir contenir les risques potentiels. Tout d'abord, nous étudions les mécanismes et leurs effets sur les pays émergents dans le cadre d'une revue de la littérature. Nous montrons que la politique monétaire de la Réserve fédérale a bien été responsable d'effets de report. Ensuite, nous révélons, de façon empirique, que les conséquences présentent une certaine hétérogénéité dans le temps, en fonction des modalités d'intervention de la banque centrale américaine, ainsi que selon les pays. Nous établissons qu'il n'y a pas de réelle symétrie entre la phase expansionniste et celle de normalisation. De ce fait, la normalisation n'apparaît pas entrainer des reflux de capitaux dans les pays émergents. Finalement, nous nous intéressons aux moyens dont disposent les pays émergents pour limiter les effets de report. Nous montrons que les contrôles de capitaux et les politiques macroprudentielles peuvent permettre de réduire les mouvements de capitaux. Plus précisément, l'efficacité des contrôles de capitaux est conditionnée par leur accumulation. Plus le pays en est doté, plus il limite les effets de report. L'efficacité de la politique macroprudentielle dépend quant à elle de la qualité des institutions dans le pays émergent et de l'intensité de la politique monétaire américaine. / The implementation of the U.S. unconventional monetary policy in 2008 coincided with massive capital inflows and exchange rate appreciation for emerging markets. They implicate the Federal Reserve to pursue a « Beggar-thy-neighbor » policy and to create spillovers. In 2013, following the announcement of the « Tapering », some emerging markets suffered from significant financial crises. In this context, this thesis intends to study how the U.S. unconventional monetary policy led to capital flows and exchange rate movements spillovers. As the normalization of this monetary policy is initiated, understanding the international implications of the Federal Reserve's decisions is essential to contain potential risks. For this purpose, we firstly study mechanisms and their impacts on emerging countries by a literature review. We show that the Fed monetary policy caused capital flows and exchange rate spillovers in the last decade. Then, we reveal empirically that the impacts exhibit heterogeneity over time, depend on implementation modalities of the U.S. central bank as well as on the countries. We establish that there is no real symmetrical impacts between accommodative and normalization periods. As a result, the normalization would not lead to capital outflows in emerging countries. Finally, we examine the means that emerging countries can adopt to limit spillovers. We demonstrate that capital controls and macroprudential policies can be efficient to reduce capital inflows. More precisely, the effectiveness of capital controls is conditioned by their accumulation. The more the country adopts it, the more it limits spillovers. Considering macroprudential policies, the intensity of the U.S. monetary policy and the quality of the emerging countries' institutions are two main determinants of their effectiveness.

<p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2008</p>

This study aims to analyze the causes and consequences of sudden stops in international capital flows with special reference to the recent Turkish experience. We aim to investigate also the vulnerability of the Turkish economy to a sudden stop and compute the required change in the real exchange rates for a current account adjustment in the face of a sudden stop. The assessment of the economic and structural indicators, which are assumed to be related with the resilience of the economy against sudden stops, such as openness and dollarization, refers that the risk of experiencing a sudden stop has increased in Turkey in the last two years, despite a decrease in its exposure to the destructive effects of such shocks thanks to the structural improvements in the economy. Our empirical results based on a small open economy model with tradables and non-tradables suggest that a sudden stop that requires the closing of the current account imbalance in Turkey would necessitate a real depreciation of around 36 percent as of May 2008 under the assumption that international reserves were not used in order to mitigate the level and the effects of the adjustment. Although the effects of such a real depreciation may be milder due to the decreased currency mismatches in the public and banking sector, there is still the risk of experiencing a financial crisis following a sudden stop because of the high liability dollarization in the real sector.

This thesis examines the effects of international capital flows on economic growth by using a dynamic general equilibrium framework based on a three-sector Ramsey Model. In order to detect the impact of financial integration on production, allocation of resources across three sectors and consumption, two different economic environments are modelled. While the first model represents a closed economy with financial autarky, the second model examplifies a financially integrated open economy with partial capital mobility. Each of the models is calibrated to Turkish economy based on the data of the year 2006. The simulation results demonstrate that the presence of international capital flows, despite being limited by a borrowing constraint, reverses the impact of economic growth on production and resource allocation. It is found that even though the importance of production in tradable-goods sector diminishes in the absence of international capital flows, it increases in the open economy model. Moreover, the findings show that while production in the closed economy model simply adjusts to domestic demand, that of the open economy model is not constrained by it. This can be explained by the augmentative effect of partial capital flows on the impact of foreign demand on domestic production.

Darbo tema yra aktuali tuo, kad tarptautinės reitingų agentūros, įvertindamos skolų krizę Europoje, pastaruoju metu daugeliui šalių mažino valstybės kredito reitingus ar blogino jų perspektyvas. Nors po prieš trejus metus patirto nuosmukio Baltijos šalių reitingai ir stabilizavosi, jų aukštesnių reikšmių išlaikymas Baltijos valstybėms yra svarbus užsienio investicijų pritraukimo ir šių šalių finansų sektoriaus vystymosi veiksnys. Vis dėlto, reitingų gerėjimas gali turėti ir priešingą poveikį.Todėl svarbu išsiaiškinti situaciją Baltijos šalyse. Tiriamojo darbo objektas yra Baltijos šalių ilgalaikio ir trumpalaikio skolinimosi užsienio valiuta reitingai bei ilgalaikio ir trumpalaikio skolinimosi nacionaline valiuta reitingai. Šio darbo tikslas - atlikus teorinę valstybės kredito reitingų ir jų įtakos šalies finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams analizę, nustatyti valstybės kredito reitingų įtaką finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams Baltijos šalyse. Darbo tikslui pasiekti buvo suformuluoti uždaviniai: atlikti teorinę valstybės kredito reitingų ir jų įtakos šalies finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams analizę, išanalizuoti Baltijos šalių finansų sektoriaus išsivystymo lygį bei užsienio investicijų srautų ir kredito reitingų šiose šalyse pokyčių tendencijas, reitingus įtakojusius veiksnius, nustatyti valstybės kredito reitingų įtaką finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams Baltijos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The topic of the work is relevant due to the fact, that international credit rating agencies, assessing the debt crisis in Europe, recently downgraded credit ratings or their outlook for many countries. Despite the fact that sovereign credit ratings of Baltic states have stabilized after the decline occured three years ago, higher ratings are the essential factor for Baltic states, seeking to attract foreign investment and promote their financial sector development. Though, the improvements of ratings may have the opposite effect. Therefore, it is important to clarify the situation in Baltic states. The object of the research work – the Baltic states‘ short and long term in foreign and local currency ratings. The purpose of this paper is to establish the impact of sovereign credit ratings on the financial sector development and international capital flows in the Baltic states, doing theoretical analysis on sovereign credit ratings and their impact on the financial sector development and international capital flows in a country. In order to achieve an objective, the following tasks have been fomulated: to accomplish above-mentioned theoretical analysis, to analyse the level of financial sector development, changes in trends of international capital flows and sovereign credit ratings in the Baltic states, reveal the main factors, which affected ratings in these countries and ascertain the influence of these ratings on the financial sector development and international capital... [to full text]

O presente trabalha busca avaliar o processo de liberalização da conta capital em implementação no Brasil a partir da década de 1990, através da pesquisa nos trabalhos já registrados na literatura internacional (capítulo 2), associada a uma abordagem empírica própria (capítulo 4). Utiliza-se de dois índices independentes para avaliar o comportamento do setor externo da economia (ICC, de jure, e IAF, de facto), e, assim, realizar maiores inferências econométricas sobre tal processo, somando-se às iniciativas anteriores em compreender os vínculos entre a abertura financeira e o desempenho macroeconômico nos países em desenvolvimento em geral, e no Brasil, em particular. Nesse sentido, identificou-se a ampliação do grau de conversibilidade da conta capital do País no período 1990-2005 (capítulo 3) sem, entretanto, se verificar uma evidência de geração de benefícios em termos de crescimento econômico e de redução de volatilidade macroeconômica, nos termos apontados nos exercícios econométricos – o IAF chega, inclusive, a apontar uma relação robusta do aumento dos fluxos financeiros com uma maior oscilação da taxa de câmbio. Os resultados apresentados vão ao encontro da tendência predominante na literatura internacional, qual seja, de que não se consegue estabelecer uma relação causal positiva e robusta entre liberalização financeira e crescimento econômico. No mesmo sentido, a experiência brasileira na liberalização financeira, capturada pela evolução do ICC e do IAF, parece estar vinculada a um aumento na taxa de juros, e não a sua redução. Esses resultados confirmam a hipótese de que a integração de um país em desenvolvimento aos fluxos de capitais internacionais leva à necessidade de práticas de juros mais altas para atraí-los e os manter no País. Conclui-se pela conveniência de um grau ótimo de exposição dos países periféricos aos fluxos de capitais internacionais, controlando riscos e proporcionando avanços econômicos, sobretudo contando com um gerenciamento prudencial da conta capital por parte das autoridades monetárias. / The present study seeks to investigate the dynamics of capital account liberalization in implementation in Brazil since the 1990’s, analyzing previous papers on international literature (chapter 2), associated with an empirical framework, based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) method (chapter 4). It’s used two independents index as proxies in order to evaluate the behavior of external sector of the economy (ICC, de jure, and IAF, de facto), and, hence, make the econometric inferences about such process. In general terms, the aim is to contribute by comprehending the relation between financial openness and macroeconomic performance in developing countries, in general, and specifically in Brazil. For such, the task identified the broadening of capital account convertibility in the period 1990-2005 (chapter 3), without verifying evidences on benefits such as economic growth or reduction of macroeconomic volatile, according to the econometric exercises – IAF, indeed, supports a strong relation between the increase of financial flows with a greater variability on exchange terms. The empirical findings are similar to those predominant on international literature, i.e., that it does not exist a positive and strong association between financial liberalization and economic growth. In fact, brazilian experience on financial liberalization, measured by the ICC and IAF, seems to be related to an increase on interest rates, and not on its reduction, as could be supposed, which confirm the hypothesis that integration of a developing country to international capital flows creates the necessity of higher interest rates to attract and maintain then in a country. We conclude for the convenience of an optimum exposition of periphery economies to international capital flows, through a prudent management of capital account by the monetary authorities, controlling associated risks while permitting economic advances.

Submitted by Beatriz Sousa Rocha (sousarocha.beatriz@gmail.com) on 2015-03-10T15:30:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-03-10T18:01:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-11T12:48:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-11-14 / This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the 2010-2012 sovereign debt crisis and the recent emerging equity markets slowdown. The exposure of the emerging markets to the crisis of the developed markets is quantified using an interdependence factor model. The results show that emerging markets did suffer a shock from both crisis, yet they recovered while the developed markets were still struggling. After the sovereign debt crisis emerging markets slowed down synchronized with the developed market’s recovery. The paper further analyses whether capital flows explain the connection between these two events, finding this relationship exists. / A presente dissertação investiga a relação empírica entre a crise financeira de 2007-2009, a crise da dívida soberana de 2010-2012 e a recente desaceleração dos mercados de capitais nos mercados emergentes. A exposição dos mercados emergentes à crise nos desenvolvidos é quantificada através de um modelo de interdependência de factores. Os resultados mostram que estes sofreram, de facto, um choque provocado por ambas as crises. No entanto, este foi um choque de curta duração enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos ainda lutavam com as consequências resultantes das sucessivas crises financeiras. A análise do modelo mostra ainda que após a crise da divida soberana, enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos iniciam a sua recuperação, os emergentes desaceleram o seu crescimento. De forma a completar a análise do modelo foi efectuado um estudo sobre a influência dos fluxos de capitais entre os mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos na direcção do seu crescimento, revelando que existe uma relação entre estes dois eventos.

O presente trabalha busca avaliar o processo de liberalização da conta capital em implementação no Brasil a partir da década de 1990, através da pesquisa nos trabalhos já registrados na literatura internacional (capítulo 2), associada a uma abordagem empírica própria (capítulo 4). Utiliza-se de dois índices independentes para avaliar o comportamento do setor externo da economia (ICC, de jure, e IAF, de facto), e, assim, realizar maiores inferências econométricas sobre tal processo, somando-se às iniciativas anteriores em compreender os vínculos entre a abertura financeira e o desempenho macroeconômico nos países em desenvolvimento em geral, e no Brasil, em particular. Nesse sentido, identificou-se a ampliação do grau de conversibilidade da conta capital do País no período 1990-2005 (capítulo 3) sem, entretanto, se verificar uma evidência de geração de benefícios em termos de crescimento econômico e de redução de volatilidade macroeconômica, nos termos apontados nos exercícios econométricos – o IAF chega, inclusive, a apontar uma relação robusta do aumento dos fluxos financeiros com uma maior oscilação da taxa de câmbio. Os resultados apresentados vão ao encontro da tendência predominante na literatura internacional, qual seja, de que não se consegue estabelecer uma relação causal positiva e robusta entre liberalização financeira e crescimento econômico. No mesmo sentido, a experiência brasileira na liberalização financeira, capturada pela evolução do ICC e do IAF, parece estar vinculada a um aumento na taxa de juros, e não a sua redução. Esses resultados confirmam a hipótese de que a integração de um país em desenvolvimento aos fluxos de capitais internacionais leva à necessidade de práticas de juros mais altas para atraí-los e os manter no País. Conclui-se pela conveniência de um grau ótimo de exposição dos países periféricos aos fluxos de capitais internacionais, controlando riscos e proporcionando avanços econômicos, sobretudo contando com um gerenciamento prudencial da conta capital por parte das autoridades monetárias. / The present study seeks to investigate the dynamics of capital account liberalization in implementation in Brazil since the 1990’s, analyzing previous papers on international literature (chapter 2), associated with an empirical framework, based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) method (chapter 4). It’s used two independents index as proxies in order to evaluate the behavior of external sector of the economy (ICC, de jure, and IAF, de facto), and, hence, make the econometric inferences about such process. In general terms, the aim is to contribute by comprehending the relation between financial openness and macroeconomic performance in developing countries, in general, and specifically in Brazil. For such, the task identified the broadening of capital account convertibility in the period 1990-2005 (chapter 3), without verifying evidences on benefits such as economic growth or reduction of macroeconomic volatile, according to the econometric exercises – IAF, indeed, supports a strong relation between the increase of financial flows with a greater variability on exchange terms. The empirical findings are similar to those predominant on international literature, i.e., that it does not exist a positive and strong association between financial liberalization and economic growth. In fact, brazilian experience on financial liberalization, measured by the ICC and IAF, seems to be related to an increase on interest rates, and not on its reduction, as could be supposed, which confirm the hypothesis that integration of a developing country to international capital flows creates the necessity of higher interest rates to attract and maintain then in a country. We conclude for the convenience of an optimum exposition of periphery economies to international capital flows, through a prudent management of capital account by the monetary authorities, controlling associated risks while permitting economic advances.