The text deals with monetary policy normalization in USA and its influence on cross-border capital flows to emerging markets. The first chapter provides basic economic theory of capital flows. Federal Reserve's monetary policy normalization is discussed in the second chapter, including its relation to international flows of capital. The last chapter analyzes monetary policy normalization influence on capital flows to three developing countries.

Le Luxembourg est le 3ème exportateur mondial de services financiers. Il figure parmi les pays qui accueillent le plus d’investissements directs en provenance de l’étranger, ce qui indique l’intensité de ses liens avec l’économie mondiale. Le but de ce travail est d’analyser l’influence éventuelle d’une économie mondiale caractérisée par l’interdépendance des marchés réels et financiers sur l’économie Luxembourgeoise. Chapitre 1 présente une analyse des interactions de l’économie Luxembourgeoise avec le monde extérieur. Le chapitre suivant est consacré à la revue de la littérature portant sur la modélisation de l’intermédiation financière au niveau macroéconomique, couvrant plusieurs types d’approches de modélisations. Enfin, le troisième chapitre comporte un modèle macroéconométrique multi-pays construit et analysé afin de simuler les scénarios plausibles. Le modèle y est présenté avec ses fondements théoriques, les résultats des simulations et une comparaison avec d’autres modèles. La nouveauté du modèle réside dans sa prise en compte du commerce international désagrégé en services financiers et autres, et des investissements internationaux en portefeuille avec leurs flux de titres et de capitaux, ainsi que de leur impact sur la croissance économique. Les résultats des simulations montrent que ce cadre d’analyse donne parfois des résultats différents par rapport aux modèles standards. Nombre de scénarios qui ne peuvent être simulés par d’autres modèles, tels que la baisse des flux internationaux d’investissements de portefeuille, sont également analysés et confirment la forte vulnérabilité du Luxembourg aux chocs externes qui ont lieu sur les marchés financiers. / Luxembourg is world’s third financial services exporter and one of world’s top recipients of foreign direct investment in value as well as per capita terms, which highlight its strong linkages with world economy. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze possible outcomes for the very small and very open economy of Luxembourg in a world environment, where real and financial markets affect each other. To better understand the characteristics of the economy and economic mechanisms behind them, a thorough analysis with emphasis put on the interactions with the outside world based on available data and relevant literature is presented (Chapter 1). Subsequently a survey of literature devoted to modeling financial intermediation at macroeconomic level across various types of modeling approaches is offered (Chapter 2). Finally, a multi-country macroeconometric model built to simulate possible scenarios is presented and analyzed (Chapter 3) with its theoretical background, simulations’ results and comparison with other models. The model is novel in that it accounts for international trade disaggregated into financial services and the rest, and international portfolio investment in securities and equity flows, that have a significant impact on the country’s economic growth. Simulations’ results show that such a framework generates sometimes markedly different results than more standard models. A number of scenarios which cannot be simulated in other models, such as American stock market fall or a decrease in international portfolio flows, are also analyzed and confirm the high vulnerability of Luxembourg economy to external shocks originating in financial markets.

This paper examines current and suggested iterations of the climate finance architecture and potential risks in capital generation and delivery. Which is achieved via the construction of a literature review which aims to capture the main actors involved in the climate finance architecture. This is then contrasted to a post-keynesian and development economics synthesized framework focusing on liquidity preference, asymmetrical relationships and Minskyan financial instability. Utilizing data on current accounts, private capital flow instability and reserve asset accumulation we are able to show the explanatory power of our synthesized framework in explaining global capital imbalances and its impact on global financial flows and the impact on middle and low income countries. Using the insights gathered from our synthesized framework we then contrast it to the literature review, examining it for observable limitations in capital generation and delivery. In doing so a couple of things are noted, there are significant points of contention relating to capital generation and delivery in the climate finance architecture, potentially resulting in volatile asset prices and a negative impact on effective climate finance. Simultaneously it’s observed that climate finance is not catalytical for financial instability but a growing dependency and intertwining with conventional private financial flows may result in bouts of greater financial instability of climate finance assets. Lastly the paper affirms that there is a need to further examine the role and function of blended finance mechanisms.

La presente investigación busca identificar el efecto del riesgo país, medido como el índice EMBI, en conjunto con un grupo de variables macroeconómicas, sobre la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) y la Inversión Extranjera de Cartera (IEC) en el Perú. Luego de asegurar la estacionariedad y no autocorrelación de las series de datos mediante transformaciones matemáticas, se aplica la metodología de Vectores Autoregresivos VAR con la finalidad de hallar las variables que explican el desempeño de la IED e IEC durante el periodo comprendido entre los años 2000 y 2020. Los resultados sugieren que el índice EMBI mantiene en el tiempo un efecto negativo sobre la IEC, mientras que en el caso de la IED se observa un efecto positivo durante dos primeros trimestres, el cual posteriormente se diluye hasta disiparse en su totalidad. / This research seeks to identify the effect of country risk, measured as the EMBI Index, together with a group of macroeconomic variables, on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in Peru. After ensuring the stationarity and non-autocorrelation of the data series through mathematical transformations, the VAR Autoregressive Vectors methodology is applied in order to find the variables that explain the performance of FDI and FPI during the period between 2000 and 2020. The results suggest that the EMBI index maintains a negative effect on the IEC over time, while in the case of FDI a positive effect is observed during the first two quarters, which subsequently dissipates until it dissipates in its entirety. / Trabajo de investigación

[pt] Motivados pela posição de destaque do real brasileiro entre uma das moedas mais depreciadas em relação aos seus pares emergentes em meados de 2020, potencialmente fomentada pela expressiva evasão de capitais observada no decorrer da pandemia COVID-19 que culminou com um déficit no mercado cambial, realizamos previsões um trimestre a frente para os fluxos de capitais líquidos para o Brasil através de técnicas de machine learning, utilizando modelos de regularização para seleção das variáveis importantes. Os fluxos são obtidos a partir de dados trimestrais do balanço de pagamentos, englobando 2004:T1 a 2021:T1. Os modelos propostos, tanto LASSO quanto adaLASSO + OLS, foram capazes de gerar previsões fora da amostra melhores que o modelo de benchmark, AR. Apesar disso, quando comparados entre si, não podemos rejeitar a hipótese nula de que os modelos propostos possuem a mesma precisão de previsão. / [en] Motivated by the prominent position of the Brazilian real among the most depreciated currencies in comparison with its emerging peers in mid-2020, potentially fueled by the significant capital outflow observed during the COVID19 pandemic that resulted in a deficit in the foreign exchange market, we make one quarter-ahead forecast for net capital flows to Brazil through machine learning techniques, using shrinkage methods to select important variables. These flows are computed from quarterly balance of payments data from 2004:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The proposed models, both LASSO and adaLASSO + OLS, were able to generate better out-of-sample forecasts than the benchmark model, AR. Nevertheless, when compared to each other, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the proposed models have the same forecast accuracy.

Money is a public good. The regulation of its creation, supply and distribution is of national and international interest. Monetary stability is an important regulatory goal conducted through an interaction of economic, political, religious factors as well as legislative action. The state plays an intermediary role, bridging domestic interests and international interests. Increasing interdependence between national economic systems and international obligations sometimes leads to the manipulation of systems as well as currency wars. Regulation is done through co-operative international action since domestic regulators are no longer sufficiently equipped to do so. Resultantly, there is an emergence of new structural paradigms to deal with it. Meanwhile, states still enjoy certain residual competences of sovereignty. Numerous legal factors act as constraints on sovereignty with far reaching implications on states’ regulatory space. In light of the divergence of regulatory objectives, there is an apparent need to balance municipal with international interests on the regulation of the monetary system. / Mercantile Law / LLM

此篇論文利用馬可夫狀態轉換模型實證出在歐元區的股票市場中，以規模溢酬、價值溢酬以及市場溢酬建構的投資組合存在兩個不同的情境狀態。以歐元區市場溢酬和規模溢酬建構的投資組合(SMB portfolios)在牛市存在較高的平均報酬，另一方面以價值溢酬建構的投資組合(HML portfolios)則在熊市有較高的平均報酬。而以規模溢酬、價值溢酬以及歐元區市場溢酬建構的投資組合，其報酬率變異數在熊市皆比牛市來得高。由於此篇論文實證出不論在樣本內或樣本外的測試中，以規模溢酬以及價值溢酬建構的投資組合，其特色反轉投資策略皆優於買入並持有的投資策略，因此本篇論文建議，在歐元區以規模因素（size factor）及帳面價值與市價比因素（book-to-market factor）為考量建構投資組合時，考慮規模溢酬以及價值溢酬在不同情境狀態下的反轉異常現象是重要且不可忽視的課題。 / This paper documents the presence of two regimes in the joint distribution of stock returns on European market premium portfolio and portfolios tracking size- and value effects in the Euro area. The mean returns of the EMU market portfolio and SMB portfolios are higher in the bull state while the mean return of the HML portfolio is larger in the bear state. Volatilities of the EMU market portfolio, SMB portfolio and the HML portfolio are all larger in the bear state compared to the bull state. This paper uses the Markov regime-switching model to generate the switching signal of market, size and value portfolios in the stock market and reallocates the market, size and value portfolios in the stock market by the mean-variance approach. Since both in the in-sample and out-sample test, the performance of the style rotation strategy outperforms style consistent strategy of the SMB portfolio and HML portfolio, this paper proposes that when analyzing investments in returns of size and value portfolios in the European market, it is important for us to account for anomalies for size and value effects in European market under different regimes. In the regime-switching VAR(1) model to account for the net capital flow predictability on the stock returns of EMU market, SMB and HML portfolios and the interrelationships among these variables. The result shows that adding the European Union net capital flow in relation to the economy's size as the predictor variable to the regime switching VAR(1) model, it improves the asset allocation outcomes both in the in-sample and out-sample test. Furthermore, this paper has found that both in the bull and bear states, the impulse response function shows that a shock of one standard deviation of net capital inflows last month will reduce the EMU market return up to near three months. Besides, the net capital inflow shock in European stock market will generates appreciation of companies with low book-to-market ratios (growth stocks) and large-sized firms in the bull state, while it generates appreciation of companies with high book-to-market ratios (value stocks) in the bear state.

Cette thèse vise à combler le fossé entre l'analyse de l’économie réelle et l’économie monétaire dans la théorie du commerce international. À cette fin, j’analyse l’effet Cantillon, i.e. l'impact différentiel de l'expansion monétaire sur les prix, la production, les patrimoines et la structure du commerce international. Dans la première partie, je passe en revue la littérature en économie internationale, à partir du 19e siècle jusqu’aux théories contemporaines. Dans la deuxième partie, j’utilise les contributions de Ludwig von Mises à la théorie de la monnaie et des cycles économiques comme fondement de l'analyse de l’impact de l'expansion monétaire sur le commerce international. Dans le chapitre 4, j’examine la relation entre le développement du marché financier et le commerce. Dans le chapitre 5, je discute l'impact de l'inflation monétaire sur les modes de financement du commerce et sur la transmission des cycles économiques. Les principaux résultats de ma recherche sont que l'expansion monétaire modifie la direction, la composition, le volume et la valeur des flux commerciaux et de capitaux. J’applique ce cadre théorétique dans le chapitre 6, pour expliquer l'évolution des ventes de marchandises et des flux de capitaux au cours des dernières décennies, et d'illustrer mes conclusions avec les données statistiques de la plus récente crise financière et de l'effondrement du commerce mondial de 2008-2009. Dans la troisième partie, j’analyse l’impact de l'expansion monétaire sur l’organisation industrielle internationale et la distribution mondiale des revenus et des patrimoines. Dans la section finale, je présente les implications majeures de mon analyse pour le commerce international et les politiques monétaires, et son importance pour des recherches futures. / This dissertation endeavors to offer a way to bridge the gap between the analysis of real and monetary phenomena in international economics. To this end, I analyze Cantillon effects, i.e. the differential impact of monetary expansion on prices, production, wealth, and the pattern of international trade. In Part I review the standard literature in international economics from the 19th century to contemporary theories. In Part II I use the contributions of Ludwig von Mises to the theory of money and business cycles as the foundation for the analysis of monetary expansion and international trade. In Chapter 4, I focus on the relationship between financial development and international trade. In Chapter 5, I analyze the impact of inflation and5fractional reserve banking on trade finance, and the transmission of business cycles across national borders. The main findings of my research are that monetary expansion modifies the direction, composition, volume and value of trade and capital flows. I apply this framework in Chapter 6, to explain the evolution of merchandise and capital flows over the last decades, and illustrate my findings with statistical evidence from the most recent financial crisis and the global trade collapse of 2008-2009. In Part III I analyze the impact of monetary expansion on international industrial organization, and the global distribution of income and wealth. In the concluding section, I draw out the major implications of my analysis for international trade and monetary policies, and its importance for future research.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Adriano Vilela Sampaio.pdf: 791664 bytes, checksum: a1e2f8e1979518f22640b33ffdf362c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-05-15 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The objective of this work is the study of the Brazilian economic policy autonomy in the context of increasing capital mobility and financial liberalization initiated on the 1990s. In order to accomplish our purpose, it is made a brief presentassesation of the evolution of the international financial system and of the debate between liberalization and capital controls on the theoretical and empirical literature with the purpose of comprehending how the functioning of the international financial system may restrict the economic policy autonomy and whether this restriction is desirable or not. The analysis of econometrical papers that tried to assess the impacts of the Brazilian financial liberalization showed that given the divergences of the results, it is not possible to corroborate the hypothesis that the financial liberalization generated the benefits proclaimed by its defenders. About the works that discussed the economic policy autonomy, the results didn t allow a definitive conclusion. It was made an econometrical exercise to assess the impacts of the financial integration, represented by capital flows, over the economic policy autonomy. The results suggest a loss on the economic policy autonomy in the period jan/1995 dec/1999 and that such loss didn t occur in the period jan/1999 dec/2007, although the capital flows had been relevants on explaining the interest rate / O objetivo deste trabalho é o estudo da autonomia da política econômica brasileira no contexto de crescente mobilidade de capitais e liberalização financeira iniciada a partir dos anos 90. Para tanto, faz-se uma breve apresentação da evolução do sistema financeiro internacional e do debate entre liberalização e controles de capitais na literatura teórica e empírica com o propósito de compreender de que forma o funcionamento do sistema financeiro internacional pode restringir a autonomia de política econômica dos países e se essa restrição é desejável ou não. A análise de trabalhos econométricos que trataram dos impactos da liberalização financeira brasileira mostrou que, dada a divergência dos resultados, não é possível corroborar a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira brasileira trouxe os benefícios apregoados por seus defensores. Em relação aos trabalhos que discutiram a autonomia de política econômica, os resultados não permitiram uma conclusão mais segura. Foi realizado um exercício econométrico para avaliar os impactos da integração financeira, representada pelos fluxos de capitais, sobre a autonomia de política econômica. Os resultados sugerem a perda de autonomia de política econômica no período jan/1995-dez/1998 e que não houve essa perda no período jan/1999-dez/2007 embora os fluxos de capitais tenham se mostrado relevantes na explicação da taxa de juros

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-14 / ApexBrasil - Agência Brasileira de Promoção de Exportações e Investimentos / Esta dissertação objetiva analisar comparativamente a evolução dos fluxos de investimento externo direto na economia mundial e brasileira no período entre 1994 e 2011. A metodologia é baseada na estatística descritiva utilizando a correlação de Pearson e dados secundários relacionados com os fluxos de investimento externo direto, estoque, além da origem dos investimentos (países) e discriminação das atividades receptoras de investimento. Examinaram-se inicialmente os fluxos mundiais e constatou-se que os mesmos têm aumentando, atingindo US$ 1,5 trilhões em 2011. Os fluxos também têm se direcionado para os países em desenvolvimento que apresentaram aumento de 12% em 2011 com relação ao ano anterior. Com relação à origem dos investimentos diretos externos, os países que mais investiram no mundo foram por região, Portugal, Estados Unidos, Japão e Nova Zelândia. As atividades da economia que mais receberam investimento externo direto mundial, foram indústria e serviços, com destaque para a indústria química e serviços de utilidade pública. No caso brasileiro, os países que mais investiram foram os Países Baixos, seguido dos EUA e Espanha. Nas atividades econômicas, o Brasil recebeu maiores investimentos no setor de serviços em 2011, com destaque para os serviços financeiros. O impacto na balança comercial e emprego foram positivos, todavia, com taxas de crescimento bem distintas. No caso do investimento brasileiro no exterior, os fluxos se direcionaram em sua maioria para os Países Baixos, e as atividades econômicas mais investidas no mundo pelas multinacionais brasileiras foram petróleo e gás natural e extração de minerais metálicos, metalúrgica e serviços financeiros. Com a análise da correlação entre os fluxos de investimento direto e o PIB, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação, taxa de juros e taxa de desemprego, concluiu-se que o produto interno bruto está positivamente relacionado com os fluxos de investimento direto com intensidade alta; a relação com a taxa de câmbio se mostrou positiva em alguns anos e negativa em outros; a taxa de inflação, a taxa de juros e a taxa de desemprego se mostraram negativamente relacionadas com os fluxos, confirmando a teoria. / This dissertation aims to comparatively analyze the evolution of FDI flows in the world economy and Brazil between 1994 and 2011. The methodology is based on descriptive statistics and analysis of secondary data related to flows of foreign direct investment, stock, beyond the origin of investments (countries) and discrimination against recipients of investment activities. Were examined initially global flows and found that they are increasing, reaching $ 1.5 trillion in 2011. The flows have also been directed to developing countries which showed an increase of 12% in 2011 compared with the previous year. Regarding the origin of foreign direct investment, countries that have invested most in the world by region, Portugal, United States, Japan and New Zealand. The activities of the economy that received more foreign direct investment worldwide, were industry and services, with emphasis on the chemical industry and utilities. In Brazil, the countries that invested were the Netherlands, followed by the USA and Spain. In economic activities, the country received more investment in the service sector in 2011, with emphasis on financial services. The impact on the trade balance and employment were positive, however, with very different growth rates. In the case of Brazilian investment abroad, the flow is directed mostly to the Netherlands, and economic activities more invested in the world by Brazilian multinationals were oil and natural gas extraction and metal ore, metallurgical and financial services. With the analysis of the correlation between flows of direct investment and GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and unemployment rate, it was concluded that the gross domestic product is positively related to direct investment flows with high intensity , the relationship with the exchange rate was positive in some years and negative in others, the rate of inflation, the interest rate and the unemployment rate showed negatively related flows, confirming the theory.