This doctoral thesis deals with modelling and simulation of investment projects and linking risk management with new trends in construction industry. Process of balancing of acceptable risk level and investment costs is really complex and is influenced by several uncertainties. Simulation methods are able to model future scenarios of project development and quantify impact of risk factors. The aim of the doctoral thesis is to find an optimal methodology for risk analysis during decision-making process using simulation methods. The methodology links modeling by simulation method Monte Carlo with CBA, with risk analysis respectively. The aim is to reach more effective process of planning of investment projects. An accurate project plan in preinvestment phase will influence effectiveness of life cycle costs significantly. This is proved also by BIM methodology which works on base of transfer and storage of actual and complete information about investment plan within its whole lifecycle. Expected output of the thesis is effective application of simulation methods in risk prediction for modeling of outputs of investment project. Data from model are useful for decision making process, risk management, controlling and postaudit of investments. Projects can be evaluated by their complex benefits and quality with respect to sustainability.

Att sträva mot en hållbar utveckling, inom alla dess aspekter, är i dagsläget högst aktuellt. Särskilt då medvetenheten ökat kring de negativa effekter som exempelvis utsläpp, föroreningar och buller ger upphov till. Dessa effekter finns alla närvarande när man utvecklar en av samhällets allra mest vitala funktioner, nämligen transportinfrastruktur. Transportsystemen är, och har länge varit, ohållbara då bilar och andra motorfordon, som har stor miljöpåverkan, har prioriterats. För att minska utsläppen från transporter har Europeiska kommissionen uttryckt att andra typer av transportmedel, som kollektivtrafik, gång och cykling, bör ges högre prioritet. Flera stora städer i Europa har infört cykelvisioner och planer för att förbättra möjligheterna för att just cykla. Stockholm är en av dessa städer och en handfull projekt har därför införts för att rusta upp stadens cykelnät. Trots dessa cykelsatsningar görs dock få hållbarhetsanalyser av cykelinfrastrukturprojekt, vilket kan vara problematiskt då beslutsfattare ofta saknar adekvat underlag för att motivera investeringar. Arbetet har undersökt den sociala, ekonomiska och ekologiska hållbarheten hos ett cykelinfrastrukturprojekt genom att jämföra projektets investeringskostnad mot dess samhällsvinster via kostnads- och nyttoanalys (CBA). Projektet som har undersökts innefattar en byggnation av en 400 m lång gång- och cykelbana längs Skärholmsvägen i sydvästra Stockholm. Tidigare har vägen kantats av cykelfält på vardera sida och ingen gångväg har funnits längs sträckan. Projektet väntas vara klart under 2015 och beräknas kosta 4,16-5 miljoner kronor. Vid CBA utreds inledningsvis vilka effekter, som projektet ger upphov till, som ska beaktas i analysen. I detta arbete har hälsovinst, tidsvinst, bekvämlighetsvinst, olycksriskskillnad och miljövinst analyserats. Efter att effekterna kvantifierats omvandlas dessa kvantiteter till monetära termer för att kunna jämföras med projektets budget. Värdet för hälsovinster ges av minskad dödsrisk och värdet av ett statistiskt liv (VSL), tidsvinsten fås av ökad medelhastighet, bekvämlighetsvinsten beräknas genom att cyklisterna separeras från biltrafik, olycksriskskillnaden ges av förändringar i cyklisternas trafiksituation och miljövinsten fås av den andel nytillkomna cyklister som tidigare pendlade via bil. Projektet kommer, enligt utförda beräkningar, resultera i en samhällsnytta på mellan 1,05 miljoner kronor och 2,88 miljoner kronor beroende på mängden genomförda antaganden. Den effekt som bidrog mest till denna nytta är hälsoeffekter med ett bidrag på mellan 919 000 kr och 2,76 miljoner kr. Den effekt som bidrog med minst nytta är miljövinst med ett bidrag på mellan 168 kr och 630 kr. Nyttan kan sedan jämföras med projektets budget vilken förmodas minst uppgå till 4.16 miljoner kronor. Den planerade kostnaden för projektet uppgår dock till 5 miljoner kronor. Projektet kommer alltså slutligen ge upphov till en samhällskostnad på mellan 1,28 miljoner kr och 3,95 miljoner kr enligt genomförda beräkningar. Projektet kan möjligtvis anses vara samhällsekonomiskt gångbart om den procentuella bredden av gångbanan även motsvarar dess procentuella kostnad. Sedan miljöeffekten för projektet blev försumbar jämfört med övriga effekter kan ytterligare analysverktyg dock behövas för att vidare bedöma projektets miljöpåverkan. Detta är en indikation på att CBA är ett ofullständigt analysverktyg för att bedöma hållbarhet vad gäller cykelinfrastrukturprojekt. / Striving towards sustainable development, in all of its aspects, is currently exceedingly relevant. Particularly since the awareness of the negative side effects caused by emissions, pollution and noise have increased. These effects are all present while developing one of society’s most vital functions, namely transport infrastructure. The transport system is, and has long been, unsustainable as cars and other motor vehicles, having a large environmental impact, have been prioritized. To reduce transport emissions the European Commission has stated that other modes of transportation, such as commuting, walking and cycling, should be given higher priority. Several major European cities have implemented visions and plans to improve the possibility to bicycle. Stockholm is one of these cities and a handful of projects have thus been implemented to renovate the city’s cycling network. Despite these bicycle investments few sustainability analyses are made for bicycle infrastructure projects, which can be problematic since decision makers often lack proper support to justify investments. This work has examined the social, economic and ecological sustainability of a bicycle infrastructure project by comparing the investment costs of the project against its social benefits in a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). These benefits include health, time, comfort, accident risk and environment, which have been calculated through a cost benefit analysis (CBA). The examined project consists of a roughly 440 yard path for pedestrians and bicyclists located along Skärholmsvägen, southwest of the Stockholm city centre. Previously the road was lined with two bicycle fields on either side of the road with no path for pedestrians existing prior to the renovation. The project is planned to end during 2015 and the estimated cost amounts to 4,16-5 million SEK. In a CBA the effects which the project generates are initially investigated to assess which of the effects to consider in the analysis. In this work, health benefits, time benefits, comfort benefits, traffic accidents and environmental benefits have been analyzed. After the effects have been quantified these quantities are converted into monetary values to enable a comparison between the effects and the budget of the project. The value for health benefit is determined through decreased mortality risk and the value of a statistical life (VSL), the time benefit is calculated through an increased average velocity, the comfort benefit is determined through separating cyclists from car traffic, accident risk is estimated through the change in the bicyclists traffic conditions and the environmental benefit is calculated through the share of new cyclists who previously commuted by car. The project will, according to performed calculations, result in a societal benefit of in between 1.05 million SEK and 2.88 million SEK depending on the amount of performed assumptions. The effect which contributed the most to this benefit is the health benefit with a contribution of in between 919,000 SEK and 2.76 million SEK. The effect which contributed the least to the societal benefit is the environmental benefit with a contribution of in between 168 SEK and 630 SEK. The benefit can then be compared with the budget of the project which is estimated to amount to at least 4.16 million SEK. However the planned cost for the project amounts to 5 million SEK. The project will thus eventually yield a societal cost of in between 1.28 million SEK and 3.95 million SEK according to the calculations performed. The project can possibly be considered sustainable if the percentage of the width of the path corresponds to the percentage of its cost. Since the environmental effect could be neglected in this project compared to the other effects additional tools would thus be required to assess the environmental aspects of the project. This is an indication of CBA being an incomplete analysis tool to assess sustainability.

The subject of the diploma thesis is to acquaint the reader with the issue of a public investment project and then apply the information found to the case study in the form of a financial and economic evaluation of the selected investment plan. The evaluated investment project is the reconstruction of a cinema in the village of Hustopeče in the South Moravian Region, while the identified outputs were achieved using the cost method of cost-benefit analysis using the eCBA application. Part of the evaluation also includes a risk analysis in the form of a sensitivity and qualitative analysis.

[pt] Um Governo deve ser comprometido com a melhoria contínua da prestação de serviços públicos e parte significativa deste comprometimento dá-se por garantir que os fundos públicos são gastos em atividades e projetos que proporcionam os maiores benefícios para a sociedade. A realização de uma Análise de Custo-Benefício (CBA) fornece ao decisor comparações quantitativas das alternativas de investimento, em conjunto com informações de apoio adicionais sobre todos os custos e benefícios que não puderam ser quantificados, auxiliando no processo decisório. Uma limitação da CBA é que, apesar da incerteza ser um aspecto inerente a ela, os fluxos de custos e benefícios futuros são estimados baseando-se somente em informações e premissas disponíveis no momento da decisão de investimento. Já existe extensa literatura demonstrando ser cada vez maior a importância de um gerenciamento empresarial flexível, com revisões constantes das estratégias e dos planos já concebidos. Logo, se percebe a necessidade de uma ferramenta como a Análise pela Teoria de Opções Reais (ROA) que permita a inclusão das incertezas e flexibilidades gerenciais na CBA. O principal objetivo dessa tese foi desenvolver um quadro teórico que permitisse a avaliação socioeconômica de projetos em ambiente de incerteza por meio da combinação da análise de custo-benefício e da análise pela teoria de opções reais. Adicionalmente, ela também tentou verificar se avaliação socioeconômica proposta produz resultados satisfatórios quando aplicada na prática. A abordagem integrada foi denominada de Análise de Custo-Benefício com Opções Reais (COBRA). De forma a verificar se esta nova abordagem agrega valor a um projeto, ela foi aplicada na avaliação de uma termelétrica a biomassa com unidade de produção de etanol em um cenário sem flexibilidade (Caso Base) e com flexibilidade (Caso Flexível). Por meio dessa aplicação, foi verificado que avaliação do projeto por meio da abordagem COBRA aumentou seu valor em 93 milhões de euros, tornando o resultado final positivo para a sociedade, permitindo a requisição de apoio financeiro governamental e viabilizando a realização do projeto. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, se aplicada corretamente, esta metodologia pode vir a ser uma alternativa viável para o problema de avaliação socioeconômica de projetos com flexibilidades em ambiente de incerteza. / [en] A government must be committed to the continuous improvement of its public services and a significant part of this commitment involves ensuring that public funds are spent on activities and projects that provide the greatest benefits to society. Conducting a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) provides the decision maker with quantitative comparisons of investment alternatives, together with additional supporting information about all costs and benefits that could not be quantified, assisting in decision making. A limitation of CBA is that despite uncertainty being an inherent aspect to it, the future flows of costs and benefits are estimated based only on information and assumptions available at the time of the investment decision. Since there already is extensive literature demonstrating the increasing importance of flexible business management, with constant revisions of previously designed strategies and plans, one realizes the need for a tool like Real Options Analysis (ROA) that allows the inclusion of uncertainty and managerial flexibility in CBA. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a theoretical framework for the socioeconomic evaluation of projects under uncertainty through the combination of cost-benefit analysis and real options analysis. In addition, it also tried to verify if the proposed framework produces satisfactory results when applied in practice. The integrated approach was called COst-Benefit Real options Analysis (COBRA). In order to verify if this new approach adds value to a project, it was applied in the evaluation of a biomass powerplant with an ethanol production unit in a scenario without flexibility (Base Case) and with flexibility (Flexible Case). Through this application, it was found that the project evaluation through the COBRA approach increased its value by 93 million, turned the project into something beneficial for society, enabled government subsidies and made de project feasible. The results indicate that, if applied correctly, this approach may prove to be a viable alternative to the problem of socioeconomic evaluation of projects with flexibilities under uncertainty.

Diplomová práce se zabývá zhodnocením neziskového projektu o žadatelých o azyl na trhu práce. Použitou metodologií je analýza přínosů a nákladů (CBA). Práce se také dotýká legislativy žadatelů o azyl, zvláště té, která je ovlivňuje při vstupu na trh práce.

Tese de mestrado integrado. Engenharia Informática e Computação. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 2011

South Africa since the liberation in 1994 has faced a lot of changes. The changes include being a member of the international community. As part of the international community, South Africa is finding itself largely faced by the challenges associated with this position. Looking at other countries South Africa is realizing that the world is looking at better ways of educating their people and organizing their education and training systems so that they might gain the edge in an increasingly competitive economic global environment. Success and survival in such a world demands that South Africa has a national education and training system that provides quality learning and promotes the development of a nation that is committed to life-long learning. Institutions of higher education in South Africa are currently changing their present education system to conform to a Competency-Based Training (CBT) system. This system has only been planned but not implemented yet and it is not clear how CBT will be implemented, especially how the learners are going to be assessed. Competency-Based Assessment (CBA) is an integral part of CBT that needs particular attention if the new system is to succeed. The key aims of this thesis are to investigate the current assessment policy and practice at the Canberra Institute of Technology (CIT) underpinned by Competency- Based Training system. The project will describe and analyze the Competency-Based Assessment system used within CIT's CBT system. The project will focus on: Observing classroom practice of CBA, analyzing students' and teachers' perceptions of their involvement with CBA, and analyzing employers' perceptions of the effectiveness of CBA. The main aim of this thesis is to suggest recommendations for an assessment model that will be suitable to implement within hospitality training institutions in South Africa.

Rapid Rotational Foam Molding (RRFM) is a novel patent-pending process that was designed and developed to maximize the synergistic effects resulting from the deliberate combination of extrusion and rotational foam molding and thereby serve as a time-andenergy efficient technology for the manufacture of integral-skin rotationally molded foams of high quality. This thesis presents a thorough study of the scientific and engineering aspects related to the evolution of the RRFM process and its feasibility. This innovative processing technology was assessed and verified through a battery of planned experimental trials conducted utilizing an in-house custom-built industrial-grade lab-scale experimental setup. The experimental trials involved a variety of polypropylene (PP)- based foamable formulations with a chemical blowing agent (CBA) that were compounded and processed by utilizing an extruder and then foamed and injected as a foamed core, instantly, into the cavity of a suitable non-chilled rotationally molded hollow shell made of non-foamed pulverized PP grades. The investigated mold shapes included a cylindrical shaped mold and a rectangular flat shaped mold. The obtained moldings were examined for the quality of the skin surface, the skin-foam interface, and the achieved foam morphologies that were characterized in terms of foam density, average cell size, and average cell density. Optimal processing parameters were successfully determined for three different PP skin-foam formulation combinations. The accomplished reduction in processing time and energy consumption by implementing RRFM were substantial. A variety of processing impediments that hindered the efficiency of the single-charge conventional rotational foam molding practice were resolved by implementing RRFM; these include: the foam/skin invasion into the skin/foam layer of the manufactured article and the premature decomposition of CBA during compounding or subsequent rotational foam molding processing steps. / UOIT

The thesis is divided into two parts, theoretical and practical. Literature research explains the main concepts related to the subject of the work. Subsequently the thesis desribes methods used to evaluate investments. It is pointed to their strengths and weaknesses and the possibilities of their use. Attention is also paid to public expenditure programs which will be followed by the proposal of specific capital sources from which the project can be financed. The practically oriented part analyzes the project "Thermal insulation of the kindergarten Vinohrady". At first the situation and the current state of the educational system in Česká Třebová are briefly described. The characteristics of the selected project are followed and it passes in CBA method which was chosen for this project. The aim is to determine whether for the society and the investor the project is beneficial or not. The evaluation of economic efficiency of the project is followed by the financial analysis of the city Česká Třebová, which evaluates the economic situation of the city and determines whether the investor has sufficient resources to the smooth financing of the project.

Esta dissertação aborda a análise custo-benefício (ACB) em manejo florestal sustentável (MFS) em Roraima, Unidade da Federação pertencente à Amazônia Legal que assim como os outros Estados sofrem com a falta de alternativas econômicas frente à pressão regional e internacional de não uso dos recursos da floresta. Por essa razão, este trabalho, procurou estudar a viabilidade da atividade de manejo florestal sustentável (MFS), a fim de subsidiar futuros empreendimentos que sejam ao mesmo tempo economicamente viável e ambientalmente corretos. Para alcançar tal objetivo foi necessário expor exaustivamente a corrente do desenvolvimento sustentável, tais como, sua origem, o contexto histórico, seus conceitos, tratados e convenções que asseguraram juridicamente o pensamento conservacionista. Além disso, foi preciso embasamento na Ciência Econômica, com o conteúdo transversal sobre a Curva de Kuznets, conceito de bens públicos e as implicâncias das externalidades no custo ambiental, bem como de contribuições de economistas como Pigou, Meadows e Tietenberg. Assim, também, indispensável foi inserir na discussão, dados, conceitos e o histórico da região em discussão qual seja, a Amazônia (especialmente a roraimense) bioma possuidor de apelo internacional haja vista sua indiscutível importância para o equilíbrio ambiental do Brasil e sua contribuição para todo o planeta terra. Por fim, conjugou-se a aplicação da ACB e suas ferramentas (como os método de valoração ambiental) com o manejo florestal sustentável (MFS) objetivando o alcance do desiderato inicial, qual seja, a viabilidade ou não de modelos de extração de madeira na Amazônia de Roraima. O resultado obtido foi de que, dos três modelos estudados apenas o modelo em manejo florestal sustentável (MFS) apresentou viabilidade econômica e ambiental, tendo em vista que nos dois primeiros modelos em sistema e produção convencional (um sem e outro com custo ambiental) não atenderam aos requisitos dos indicadores do estudo: valor presente líquido (VPL), taxa interna de retorno (TIR) e a razão B/C. Aliás, duas das análises que levaram em conta os custos dos impactos ambientais foram denominadas de análise custo-benefício ampliada ou ambiental (ACBA), que são variações ou alternativas ao modelo de ACB convencional ou simples. Desse modo, o benefício do modelo MFS supera seus custos o que torna atrativos para investidores privados e públicos, bem como para financiamento via fundos ambientais nacionais e internacionais ou via financiamento via Banco Mundial, Comunidade Européia, entre outros agentes de fomento. / This study approach the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in sustainable forest management (SFM) in Roraima, Brazilian State owned by Amazon that just as other states suffer from a lack of economic alternatives facing the regional and international pressure not to use of forest resources. Therefore, this study sought to investigate the feasibility of the activity of sustainable forest management (SFM) in order to support future developments that are both economically viable and environmentally sound. To achieve this it was necessary to thoroughly expose the chain of sustainable development, such as its origin, historical context, its concepts, treaties and conventions which ensure legal thinking conservationist. Moreover, it was necessary grounding in economic science, with the content on the transverse Kuznets Curve, a concept of public goods and the implications of externalities in the environmental cost, as well as contributions from economists like Pigou, Meadows and Tietenberg. So, too, was essential to enter into the discussion, data, concepts and history of the region under discussion which is the Amazon (especially roraimense) biome possessed of international appeal has seen its unquestionable importance to the environmental balance of Brazil and its contribution to all the planet earth. Finally, conjugated to the implementation of the CBA and its tools (such as the valuation method) with sustainable forest management (SFM) in order to reach the first desideratum, namely, the feasibility or otherwise of models of logging on Amazon Roraima. The result was that the three models studied only the model in sustainable forest management (SFM) presented economic and environmental viability, given that the first two models and conventional production system (one without and one with environmental cost) is not met the requirements of the study indicators: net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and the ratio B/C. Indeed, two of the analysis that took into account the costs of environmental impacts were identified as extended cost-benefit analysis or environmental (ACBA), which are a variation, or alternatives to the conventional model of CBA or simple. Thus, the benefit of the MFS model exceeds its cost which makes it attractive for private and public investors, as well as financing through national and international environmental funds or by funding through the World Bank, European Community, and other agents of promotion.