This paper empirically investigates the cointegrated relationship between oil price and nominal exchange rate of US Dollar/ Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) which is covering a time period from 2001 to 2011. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Engle-Granger test and Error Correction Mechanism are employed for this research. This paper concludes that there is a cointegrated relationship between oil price and nominal exchange rate of USD/NOK in the long term.

None

<p>This thesis investigates in what way trade flows in Europe have been altered and differ for countries belonging to a preferential trade agreement as well as a common currency area. More specifically, how exports among the European countries are affected by memberships with the European Union and the EMU. A total of 72 countries have been chosen which represents the main trading partners between the EU and the rest of the world. Out of these 72 countries, 25 represent EU members which include 12 EMU member countries.</p><p>The econometric analysis employ a gravity model with 18 variables in order to determine their impact on trade flows. This is done through a regression with a log-log equation where the dependent variable is export. The other variables included are chosen to explain export flows among the EU members as well as their trade with EMU countries and the rest of the world. Furthermore, variables representing trade affinities are included to determine whether or not they have a significant effect on trade.</p><p>The regression is divided into four time periods in order to more easily determine how the trade pattern in Europe have altered from the establishment of the EU and the EMU. The first time period represent an early state of EU membership, the second a mature state of EU membership, the third when EU was reformed and the fourth an early state of EMU membership.</p><p>The regression results illustrate that the majority of the selected variables are significant but most importantly that the trade affinity variables are proven to have an impact on trade flows. The results also show that trade has increased and that in the case of EU membership it is more profitable to join than to remain outside. Moreover, the result show in par-ticular that countries that belong to the EMU have a stronger orientation of their exports to the rest of the world then other EU countries. For the latter, the European market is of prime importance.</p>

<p>Since the end of World War II, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been leading the international financial capital flows and has tripled in 2000s over the decade earlier. With its positive effect on economic growth of host countries via spill-overs, it became a race among countries to attract multinational enterprises (MNEs) to invest in their countries. The introduction of European common currency theoretically helps reduce the transaction costs across borders with the reduction of exchange-rate uncertainties and associated costs of hedging, facilitation of international cost comparison. Moreover, mergers and acquisitions activities (M&As) account for 60-80% of FDI flows, and most MNEs engage in both export and setting up affiliates abroad, suggesting complementarity between trade and FDI. Thus reducing cross-border distance costs would encourage MNEs to increase its M&A activities abroad, resulting in more inward FDI flows in the eurozone, especially among member states. The gravity equation is used in this paper to estimate the euro effect from the dataset of inward FDI flows of 24 countries during 1993-2007 and the result confirms that common currency stimulates more intra-eurozone inward FDI flows by approximately 58%.</p>

<p>This bachelor thesis examines the convergence properties of inflation rates of the Euro-pean Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1992 to 2007. The period can be naturally split into two periods, according to the Maastricht Treaty and the introduction of the Euro. Since countries were striving to meet the Maastricht inflation criterion for 1997 we will analyse inflation behaviour of the pre-Euro period (1992 to 1997) and post-Euro period (1998 to 2007), in order to see whether each country’s inflation rates have con-verged to the calculated mean of the sample. To analyse the issue we used CPI inflation rate data from IMF Statistical Database over the period 1992 to 2007.</p><p>We study convergence by means of ADF unit-root tests, Engle-Granger cointegration tests and Johansen cointegration tests. These are complemented with descriptive statistics that measure dispersion of inflation rates within the EMU.</p><p>The conclusion to the research problem can be summaries as follows: Our analysis pre-sents clear evidence of reduction in inflation rate dispersion for the period 1992 to 1997, indicating that the Maastricht Treaty had a major impact on the convergence of inflation rates within the EMU for that period. However, we found that only two countries, Austria and Portugal, had a cointegration relationship with the average rate of inflation of the other countries in the sample. For the period 1998 to 2007, the descriptive statistics indicated that the introduction of the Euro resulted in a divergence of inflation rates within the EMU. Those results were further strengthened by the fact that no cointegration relation-ship was found for that period.</p>

This bachelor thesis examines the convergence properties of inflation rates of the Euro-pean Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1992 to 2007. The period can be naturally split into two periods, according to the Maastricht Treaty and the introduction of the Euro. Since countries were striving to meet the Maastricht inflation criterion for 1997 we will analyse inflation behaviour of the pre-Euro period (1992 to 1997) and post-Euro period (1998 to 2007), in order to see whether each country’s inflation rates have con-verged to the calculated mean of the sample. To analyse the issue we used CPI inflation rate data from IMF Statistical Database over the period 1992 to 2007. We study convergence by means of ADF unit-root tests, Engle-Granger cointegration tests and Johansen cointegration tests. These are complemented with descriptive statistics that measure dispersion of inflation rates within the EMU. The conclusion to the research problem can be summaries as follows: Our analysis pre-sents clear evidence of reduction in inflation rate dispersion for the period 1992 to 1997, indicating that the Maastricht Treaty had a major impact on the convergence of inflation rates within the EMU for that period. However, we found that only two countries, Austria and Portugal, had a cointegration relationship with the average rate of inflation of the other countries in the sample. For the period 1998 to 2007, the descriptive statistics indicated that the introduction of the Euro resulted in a divergence of inflation rates within the EMU. Those results were further strengthened by the fact that no cointegration relation-ship was found for that period.

This dissertation advances a model which assumes extreme openness characterised by the absence of nontradables. The pivotal relative price is the real wage which is of central importance in the analysis of devaluation. The model incorporates a simple supply function on the basis that the supply response to a devaluation cannot be taken for granted because of structural factors and unstable expectations characteristic of the transitional period following a devaluation. The effects of devaluation depend on a combination of factors among which are highlighted capitalists' expectations of future stability and the constraints on disabsorption. Our analysis underlines the need for financial assistance to sustain the adjustments associated with devaluation episodes. An econometric application of this model to Jamaica finds devaluation to be adverse both with respect to output growth and the trade balance.

Lyginant su praėjusiais šimtmečiais, dvidešimtasis amžius buvo kupinas kraštutinumų. Ankstyvoji to dalis buvo sklandžiai besitęsianti XIX amžiaus taika. Bet šią tylą prieš audrą sekė I-asis Pasaulinis karas, komunizmas, nevaldoma infliacija, fašizmas, nuosmukis, II-asis Pasaulinis karas, ir sovietinė Rytų Europos okupacija. Po jų ėjo santykinio stabilumo laikotarpis, kuriame kartu egzistavo Šaltojo karo baimė, NATO aljansas ir dekolonializmas. Baigiantis amžiui, baigėsi ir Šaltasis karas, buvo sugriauta sovietų imperija, Rytų Europoje atsirado demokratija, suklestėjo Amerikos kultūriniai ir buitiniai dalykai ir atsirado euras. Dvidešimtasis amžius prasidėjo labai efektyvia tarptautine valiutine sistema, kuri buvo sunaikinta I-ojo Pasaulinio karo metu, o jos nemokšiškas atkūrimas tarpukario laikotarpiu atnešė didelį nuosmukį, Hitlerį ir II-ąjį Pasaulinį karą. Nauji veiksmai, kurie ėjo po to, labiau priklausė nuo JAV Federalinės rezervų sistemos dolerio politikos, negu nuo paties aukso metodų.. 1971m. nustojus galioti Bretton-Woods'o valiutų kursų reguliavimo sistemai, bei perėjus prie “plaukiojančiu kursų” Tarpbankinė valiutų rinka tampa pačia dinamiškiausia ir likvidžiausia pasaulio rinka - vienintele rinka dirbančia ištisa parą. Greita investuotų lėšų apyvarta, žema sandoriu savikaina bei aukštas likvidumo lygis išskiria tarpbankinė valiutų rinka iš kitų, tradicinių finansų rinkų. Valiutų rinka skirstoma i biržines ir nebiržines prekybos rinkas. Nebiržinė rinka faktiškai yra... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / By comparing with last centuries, the twentieth century has produced extremes. Its earliest part was a benign continuation of the peace of the nineteenth century. But this calm before the storm was followed by the World War I, communism, hyperinflation, fascism, depression, the World War II, and the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe. There followed a period of comparative stability, punctuated by the balance of terror of the Cold War, the Nato Alliance, and decolonialism. Toward the end of the century the Cold War ended, the Soviet Empire was dismantled, democracy emerged in Eastern Europe, the Americana flourished and the euro came. The twentieth century began with a highly efficient international monetary system that was destroyed in World War I, and its bungled recreation in the inter-war period brought on the great depression, Hitler and the World War II. The new arrangements that succeeded it depended more on the dollar policies of the Federal Reserve System than on the discipline of gold itself. In the new arrangements, which were ratified at Bretton Woods in 1944, countries were required to establish parities fixed in gold and maintain fixed exchange rates to one another. With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, money supplies became more elastic, accommodating not only inflationary wage developments but also the monopolistic pricing of internationally traded commodities. Foreign Exchange trading describes trading in the many currencies of the world. It is the... [to full text]

The Bitcoin currency relies on a transaction verification system run by a decentralized network of miners. This paper evaluates the long-term economic stability of Bitcoin mining. Specifically, I analyze the incentive structure surrounding transaction fees, which are part of the reward miners earn for verifying transactions in the Bitcoin network. My method of investigation is to first construct a visual model representing miner incentives, then input current and estimated data into that model, and finally determine how individual miners and pools will behave based on the key variables included in the model and industry trends. I conclude, under the current protocol rules, Bitcoin mining is not economically sustainable in the long-term due to the impending centralization of the network. Centralization in itself will not necessarily destroy the network. However, it will lead to unsatisfactory outcomes that will greatly lower the value of the entire system. Therefore, I recommend two potential solutions to the centralization issue, namely the requirement of either P2Pools or a proof-of-stake mechanism. The development of future applications on the Bitcoin protocol depends on the success of the Bitcoin currency application. These future technologies, along with the Bitcoin currency, have the potential to disrupt many industries. But, if miner incentives are not aligned with maintaining decentralization, then none of this potential will be realized.

Bitcoin, a virtual currency invented in 2009, was created as a peer-to-peer currency that eliminated the need for a third party authority, such as banks or government, to be involved in monetary transactions. Having no intrinsic value but carrying no government guarantees relegates bitcoin and its competitors to the perpetual role of investment opportunity, deriving value not from a practical use, but from a nominal, dollar value. This will continue to be the case until the U.S. Government sanctions virtual currency as a viable store of value. Because the dollar plays such a large role in the world’s economy, other countries will not adopt virtual currency technology unless the U.S. does so first. Substantial populations around the world must embrace bitcoin as a significant source of value before any monetary authority will relinquish the power associated with fiat currency. There are, however, many aspects of the virtual-currency model created by bitcoin that could be useful in improving the efficiency of money movement around the United States and the globe, through transaction memory, low transaction cost, and secure account information.