What political and economic factors have led Northeast Asian nations to react to U.S.-initiated trade and currency disputes differently? This dissertation analyzes the causes of the similarities and the divergence among the three countries in their trade and currency conflicts with the United States from 1971 to 2013. It argues that the divergence in the three countries' policy reactions to U.S. protectionist pressures can be best explained by differences in the political systems and bureaucratic decision-making structures of foreign economic policy and monetary policy. My research design is a small-n comparative research project, utilizing process tracing as well as regression analysis. It is based on two years of on-site fieldwork on the government decision-making systems of China, Japan, and South Korea. The dissertation develops in-depth case studies of each country's bilateral trade conflicts with the United States, as identified by disputes involving the United States International Trade Commission, the United States Department of Commerce, the United States Trade Representative, and the World Trade Organization, as well as bilateral negotiations on currency appreciation carried out at the ministerial level. It also demonstrates causal linkages between trade and currency disputes, two related issues that are not addressed together in most of the international political economy literature.

Digital currencies (cryptocurrencies) are rapidly becoming commonplace in the global market. Trading is performed similarly to the stock market or commodities, but stock market prediction algorithms are not necessarily well-suited for predicting digital currency prices. In this work, we analyzed tweets with both an existing sentiment analysis package and a manually tailored "objective analysis," resulting in one impact value for each analysis per 15-minute period. We then used evolutionary techniques to select the most appropriate training method and the best subset of the generated features to include, as well as other parameters. This resulted in implementation of predictors which yielded much more profit in four-week simulations than simply holding a digital currency for the same time period--the results ranged from 28% to 122% profit. Unlike stock exchanges, which shut down for several hours or days at a time, digital currency prediction and trading seems to be of a more consistent and predictable nature.

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error-based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state-of-the-art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies.

Seminario para optar al Título Profesional de Ingeniero Comercial mención Ciencias Económicas. / Posterior a la Crisis Sub-Prime, la literatura macro-financiera se ha enfocado en estudiar los efectos financieros existentes sobre las emisiones globales de bonos soberanos, especialmente aquellos provenientes de países con economías emergentes. En este trabajo, se parte de la evidencia inicial de un aumento de las emisiones en moneda “hard currency” en los años posteriores a la Crisis Sub-Prime, para luego dar paso a la construcción de una extensa base de datos que busca agrupar todas las variables necesarias para el estudio del crédito global de países de economías emergentes, junto con las múltiples aristas que el tema posee. Con la base de datos, el trabajo tiene como objeto contrastar la existencia de las emisiones globales (en moneda dura) sobre los “Cash Holdings” para una muestra de 20 economías emergentes. Los hallazgos de este trabajo sugieren que a los países que presentan economías emergentes tienen una mayor propensión a la emisión de bonos en el exterior. En particular, el origen del efectivo que mantienen proviene principalmente de fuentes de financiamiento de bonos, por sobre otras fuentes de financiamiento. Esta diferencia aumenta si las emisiones se realizan con moneda dura. Lo anterior se puede explicar por una propensión de los países en estudio a realizar Carry-Trade, junto con una presencia de control de capital de bonos en la muestra.

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Malgré une apparente concurrence entre les monnaies, le dollar américain est la monnaie adoptée par la majorité des participants aux échanges internationaux, exportateurs et importateurs. C’est ce que montre l’état des lieux statistique proposé dans cette thèse. Partant d’un tel constat, l’objectif de cette thèse est d’expliquer les choix de monnaies de facturation du commerce international. Différents déterminants ont été établis par la littérature académique pour expliquer les choix de monnaies de facturation. Trois approches, aux méthodologies sensiblement distinctes, y contribuent, et peuvent dès lors être confrontées : l’approche macroéconomique standard, l’approche institutionnaliste, et l’approche de l’économie politique internationale. Le principal résultat de cette thèse est de montrer que la compréhension du choix du dollar américain ne peut se contenter des déterminants mis en évidence par les approches instrumentales de la monnaie qui dominent la macroéconomie internationale, et dans lesquelles la monnaie est avant tout vue comme un outil de maximisation d’utilités individuelles : leurs apports sont utiles, mais insuffisants. En appliquant la lecture institutionnaliste aux échanges internationaux, la thèse introduit l’importance des rapports de confiance et d’adhésion des acteurs à l’égard de la monnaie et de l’ordre défendu par ses institutions régulatrices. Cette importance se vérifie dans l’histoire du XXe siècle, à la fois dans l’échec des monnaies concurrentes du dollar, et dans la persistance de la monnaie américaine elle-même. / Despite the appearance of competition between currencies, the US dollar remains the invoicing currency among the actors of international trade. Such observation is derived from ample statistical evidence contained in this thesis. This observation represents the starting-point of a broader reflection on the rationale underlying the choice of an invoicing currency in international trade, which is the central question which this thesis aims to address. Various determinants have been closely examined by the academic literature to that end. Three approaches dealt with the subject, each with its distinct methodology, and can therefore be analyzed comparatively: the standard macroeconomic approach, the institutionalist approach, and the international political economy approach. The main result of this thesis is that preference for the US dollar cannot be explained exclusively by the instrumental approaches of money which usually prevail in international macroeconomics: their contributions are useful but inadequate as they envision money primarily as a tool for maximizing individual utilities. By applying the institutionalist reading to international exchanges, the thesis introduces the necessity of trust and ethical appeal that money inspires, and the centrality of the social order that its regulatory institutions pursue. This necessity was reasserted throughout the twentieth century, as competing currencies failed to challenge the supremacy of the dollar. It is also evidenced by the resilience of the American currency itself.

Orientador: Jose Ricardo Barbosa Gonçalves / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-13T09:41:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Pires_OliviaCarolino_M.pdf: 1426667 bytes, checksum: 6c00c391536a99ea29e2bdc29d1e8ae9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: O objetivo do presente trabalho é reunir elementos que contribuam para uma análise da moeda em perspectiva histórica, com vistas a compreender como o meio circulante nacional foi funcional para o desenvolvimento econômico do Brasil no período de constituição de forças produtivas capitalistas. Focalizando o período de passagem do século XIX para o século XX, utiliza pesquisa bibliográfica para identificar as referências estruturais desse período de transição para o processo de produção capitalista, buscando evidenciar contradições colocadas aos gestores das políticas monetárias na relação entre moeda e desenvolvimento. Faz uso de fonte primária impressa para abordar o pensamento de autores significativos na política econômica nacional do período - Paula Mayrink (1881), Rui Barbosa (1890), Joaquim Murtinho (1890), Amaro Cavalcanti Soares de Brito (1893); João Pandiá Calógeras (1910); Leopoldo Bulhões (1914), Ramalho Ortigão (1914); Carlos Inglez de Souza (1924), Pires do Rio (1925) -, em suas distintas compreensões sobre o meio circulante e sua relação com desenvolvimento nacional. Nas considerações finais, o estudo sugere colocar a questão do papel da moeda no desenvolvimento, na passagem para o século XX, numa perspectiva histórica, a partir de um referencial de análise marxista. / Abstract: Present work objective is congregate elements that contribute for a currency analysis by historical perspective, with sights to understand as national currency was functional for economic development of Brazil in constitution's period of capitalist productive forces. Focusing period of ticket of century XIX for century XX, it uses bibliographical research to identify structural references of this transition's period for the Process of Capitalist Production, searching to evidence contradictions placed to managers of monetary politics in relation between currency and development. Making to emerge the thought of significant authors in the national economic policy of the period - Paula Mayrink (1881), Rui Barbosa (1890), Joaquin Murtinho (1890), I land on water Cavalcanti Soares de Brito (1893); João Pandiá Calógeras (1910); Leopoldo Bulhões (1914), Ramalho Ortigão (1914); Carlos Inglez de Souza (1924), Saucers of the River (1925) -, in it's distinct understanding on currency and it's relation with national development. Finishing, the study it suggests placing question of currency in development ticket for century XX, in a historical perspective from a referential of marxist analysis. / Mestrado / Historia Economica / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Orientador: Pedro Paulo Zahluth Bastos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-15T17:15:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Nozaki_WilliamVella_M.pdf: 1179628 bytes, checksum: f8f0999dc2de3164feff84b04694d0eb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: O presente trabalho examina as relações entre as finanças internacionais e os bancos nacionais no Brasil durante a passagem do século XIX ao XX. Toma-se como ponto de partida as mudanças no sistema monetário internacional (com a hegemonia financeira britânica) e as transformações no sistema interestatal (com a ascensão comercial norte-americana), a fim de se analisar a dependência financeira do Brasil. Desse modo, busca-se verificar as possibilidades econômicas e os obstáculos históricos que impediram a criação de um sistema bancário nacional e de um mercado de capitais brasileiro nesse período, para tanto, avaliam-se as reformas monetárias e as políticas creditícias desde a reforma bancária de 1890 até o funding loan de 1914. Além disso, observam-se as trajetórias, paralelas e complementares, dos sistemas bancários locais no Rio de Janeiro e em São Paulo para que se possam explicitar as combinações entre as estratégias do Estado e os interesses dos bancos no país. Ao final, estabelecem-se as conexões entre o capitalismo financeiro e monopolista na esfera internacional e o capitalismo rentista e privatista no plano nacional / Abstract: This thesis proposes to study the relation between international finance and Brazilian Banks during the transition from 19th to the 20th Century. From the perspective of changes in the international monetary system (with the British financial hegemony) and transformations of the interstate system (with the North American commercial ascension), the Brazil's financial dependence will be analyzed. It means that the monetary reforms and the politics of credit in that period will be evaluated considering the economical possibilities and the historical obstacles for the creation of a national banking system and of a Brazilian capital market. In the order to explain the set of combinations between the State's strategies and the interests of the banks in the country, it is shown the parallel and complementary paths of the local banking systems in Rio de Janeiro and in São Paulo. In conclusion, it aims to set up the connections between the monopoly finance capitalism in the international sphere and the rent seeking and privatist capitalism in the national plan / Mestrado / Historia Economica / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

[pt] O principal objetivo da dissertação é analisar crises de realinhamento da taxa de câmbio real. O modelo desenvolvido relaxa a hipótese da PPP, que é usual nos modelos de crises cambiais, e assume que o desequilíbrio da taxa de câmbio é derivado de choques exógenos no balanço de pagamentos. Este tipo de abordagem permite explicar crises que não são derivadas da adoção de políticas inconsistentes com o regime cambial fixo e sim resultado do processo de ajuste da economia. Um aspecto fundamental do modelo é a importância do grau de comprometimento do governo em relação ao câmbio fixo. A adoção de regimes de câmbio fixo com altos custos de saída, como o currency board, pode ser racionalizada através de um modelo simples como o apresentado. / [en] The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze real exchange rate realignment crises. The model developed abandons the PPP hypothesis, which is common in the exchange rate crises models, and assumes that disequilibrium of the exchange rate is derived from exogenous shocks at the balance of payments. This type of approach allows us to explain crises that are not derived from the adoption of policies that are inconsistent with the fixed parity, but result from the process of adjusting the economy. A fundamental aspect of the model is the importance of the degree of commitment of the government in respect to the parity. The adoption of regimes of fixed exchange rate with high costs of exit, as currency boards, can be rationalized through a simple model as the one presented below.

The type of exchange rate regime a country should adopt and ideal level of the currency have has been an ongoing debate amongst academics, politician and trade unionists. The South African economic debate is currently dominated by debates on the appropriate level of the exchange rate of the rand. With the high volatility of the rand and the rapid appreciation of the rand in 2010 there have been calls for various sectors for government to intervene and devalue the rand. The premise is that devaluation will help counter the volatility of the rand and help stimulate South Africa’s export sector thereby resulting in an improvement of the trade balance. The aim of this research was to determine if there is a relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and the trade balance and to determine if devaluation of the rand would have a positive influence on the trade balance. Furthermore the extent to which the trade balance would follow the J-Curve effect following devaluation was investigated. Using the long term trade balance model and Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model between the analyses was done between South Africa and the BRIC countries. The conclusion reached was that a devaluation of the rand would not necessarily lead to a long term improvement of the trade balance and no evidence of the J-Curve effect was found. Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted