Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

Les accords de libre-échange sont généralement étudiés indépendamment les uns des autres; ou, quand ils le sont conjointement, le détail des dispositions n'est pas présenté. L'objet ici est de fournir un tracé des différents accords de libre-échange entre le Canada et les États-Unis, aussi loin qu'il est possible de remonter. Nous couvrons: le traité de réciprocité de 1854; l'accord rejeté de 1911; les deux accords issus de la vision de Hull de 1935 et 1938; l'accord avorté de 1947; le Pacte de l'automobile de 1965; et les trois accords les plus récents, soit l'ALÉ, l'ALÉNA et l'ACÉUM. Le survol proposé est prépondéramment juridique. Il s'agit d'abord et avant tout de la comparaison des dispositions des différents accords. En outre, nous nous concentrons sur le commerce de biens, car c'est le seul fil conducteur qui permette des parallèles remontant jusqu'au XIX e siècle. Ensuite, cette analyse est baignée dans un contexte historique, dans la mesure où celui-ci aide à bien mieux cerner les enjeux soulevés par les dispositions spécifiques. Enfin, nous ajoutons à ce corps de l'étude des observations de nature économique. De ce fait, nous proposons une approche multidisciplinaire: le détail de la méthodologie suivie est exposé en détail. À présent, de manière plus précise, la problématique soulevée est la suivante: à l'étude de toutes les ententes commerciales entre le Canada et les États-Unis, quelle est la forme, l'approche, qui est la plus susceptible de faciliter efficacement le commerce entre les deux pays dans l'avenir? La conclusion est fort simple: les accords de libre-échange à spectre large—c'est-à-dire comprenant plusieurs secteurs producteurs de biens—ont en général été plus faillibles que les accords sectoriels, qui se concentrent sur des questions plus modestes, mais plus précises. En effet, les trois derniers accords de libre-échange entre le Canada et les États-Unis sont, derrière des apparences d'ententes englobantes, en dernière analyse, des amalgames d'accords sectoriels agencés dans une charpente à aspirations globales. C'est là la conclusion principale des présents efforts. Nous tirons en outre plusieurs points de synthèse, qui aident à illustrer les points fixes caractérisant les relations commerciales entre le Canada et les États-Unis au fil des décennies. / When free trade agreements are studied, they are usually considered independently of each other or, when they are examined jointly, the details of the provisions are not presented. The aim here is to provide an overview of the various free trade agreements between Canada and the United States, going as far back as is feasible. We do cover: the reciprocity treaty of 1854; the rejected agreement of 1911; the two agreements based on Hull's views of 1935 and 1938; the aborted agreement of 1947; the auto pact of 1965; and the three most recent agreements, FTA, NAFTA and the USMCA. The proposed survey is predominantly juridical in nature. It is first and foremost a comparison of the provisions of the various agreements. In particular, we focus on trade in goods, as this is the only thread that allows for parallels going back to the 19th century. Next, this analysis is framed in historical contexts, as these help us better understand the issues raised by the various provisions. Finally, economic comments are added to this core of the research. We thus propose a multidisciplinary perspective: the finer points of the followed methodology are set out in detail. Now, more specifically, the main question raised is spelled out as follows: after considering all of the trade agreements between Canada and the United States, what is the format, the approach, that is most likely to be the most effective in facilitating trade between the two countries in the future? The conclusion is quite simple: broad-spectrum free trade agreements—that is, agreements that cover several goods-producing sectors—have generally been more fallible than sectoral agreements, which focus on smaller, but more specific issues. Indeed, the last three free trade deals between Canada and the United States are, behind the appearances of all-encompassing agreements, essentially amalgamations of sectoral agreements arranged in a framework of global aspirations. This is the main conclusion of our research. We also make several other synthetical points, which illustrate some of the unwavering issues that have characterized the Canada-U.S. trade relationship over the years.