Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative force in wireless communications, driving innovation to address the complex challenges faced by communication systems. In this context, the optimization of limited radio resources plays a crucial role, and one important aspect is the Modulation and Coding Scheme (MCS) selection. AI solutions for MCS selection have been predominantly characterized as black-box models, which suffer from limited explainability and consequently hinder trust in these algorithms. Moreover, the majority of existing research primarily emphasizes enhancing explainability without concurrently improving the model’s performance which makes performance and explainability a trade-off. This work aims to address these issues by employing eXplainable AI (XAI), particularly counterfactual and causal analysis, to increase the explainability and trustworthiness of black-box models. We propose CounterFactual Retrain (CF-Retrain), the first method that utilizes counterfactual explanations to improve model performance and make the process of performance enhancement more explainable. Additionally, we conduct a causal analysis and compare the results with those obtained from an analysis based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value feature importance. This comparison leads to the proposal of novel hypotheses and insights for model optimization in future research. Our results show that employing CF-Retrain can reduce the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the black-box model by 4% while utilizing only 14% of the training data. Moreover, increasing the amount of training data yields even more pronounced improvements in MAE, providing a certain level of explainability. This performance enhancement is comparable to or even superior to using a more complex model. Furthermore, by introducing causal analysis to the mainstream SHAP value feature importance, we provide a novel hypothesis and explanation of feature importance based on causal analysis. This approach can serve as an evaluation criterion for assessing the model’s performance. / Artificiell intelligens (AI) har dykt upp som en transformativ kraft inom trådlös kommunikation, vilket driver innovation för att möta de komplexa utmaningar som kommunikationssystem står inför. I detta sammanhang spelar optimeringen av begränsade radioresurser en avgörande roll, och en viktig aspekt är valet av Modulation and Coding Scheme (MCS). AI-lösningar för val av modulering och kodningsschema har övervägande karaktäriserats som black-box-modeller, som lider av begränsad tolkningsbarhet och följaktligen hindrar förtroendet för dessa algoritmer. Dessutom betonar majoriteten av befintlig forskning i första hand att förbättra förklaringsbarheten utan att samtidigt förbättra modellens prestanda, vilket gör prestanda och tolkningsbarhet till en kompromiss. Detta arbete syftar till att ta itu med dessa problem genom att använda XAI, särskilt kontrafaktisk och kausal analys, för att öka tolkningsbarheten och pålitligheten hos svarta-box-modeller. Vi föreslår CF-Retrain, den första metoden som använder kontrafaktiska förklaringar för att förbättra modellens prestanda och göra processen med prestandaförbättring mer tolkningsbar. Dessutom gör vi en orsaksanalys och jämför resultaten med de som erhålls från en analys baserad på värdeegenskapens betydelse. Denna jämförelse leder till förslaget av nya hypoteser och insikter för modelloptimering i framtida forskning. Våra resultat visar att användning av CF-Retrain kan minska det genomsnittliga absoluta felet för black-box-modellen med 4% samtidigt som man använder endast 14% av träningsdata. Dessutom ger en ökning av mängden träningsdata ännu mer uttalade förbättringar av Mean Absolute Error (MAE), vilket ger en viss grad av tolkningsbarhet. Denna prestandaförbättring är jämförbar med eller till och med överlägsen att använda en mer komplex modell. Dessutom, genom att introducera kausal analys till de vanliga Shapley-tillsatsförklaringarna värdesätter egenskapens betydelse, ger vi en ny hypotes och tolkning av egenskapens betydelse baserad på kausalanalys. Detta tillvägagångssätt kan fungera som ett utvärderingskriterium för att bedöma modellens prestanda.

Les analyses effectuées dans le cadre de ce mémoire ont été réalisées à l'aide du module MatchIt disponible sous l’environnent d'analyse statistique R. / Statistical analyzes of this thesis were performed using the MatchIt package available in the statistical analysis environment R. / L’estimation sans biais de l’effet causal d’une intervention nécessite la comparaison de deux groupes homogènes. Il est rare qu’une étude observationnelle dispose de groupes comparables et même une étude expérimentale peut se retrouver avec des groupes non comparables. Les chercheurs ont alors recours à des techniques de correction afin de rendre les deux groupes aussi semblables que possible. Le problème consiste alors à choisir la méthode de correction appropriée. En ce qui nous concerne, nous limiterons nos recherches à une famille de méthodes dites d’appariement. Il est reconnu que ce qui importe lors d’un appariement est l’équilibre des deux groupes sur les caractéristiques retenues. Autrement dit, il faut que les variables soient distribuées de façon similaire dans les deux groupes. Avant même de considérer la distribution des variables entre les deux groupes, il est nécessaire de savoir si les données en question permettent une inférence causale. Afin de présenter le problème de façon rigoureuse, le modèle causal contrefactuel sera exposé. Par la suite, les propriétés formelles de trois méthodes d’appariement seront présentées. Ces méthodes sont l’appariement par la distance de Mahalanobis, de l’appariement par le score de propension et de l’appariement génétique. Le choix de la technique d’appariement appropriée reposera sur quatre critères empiriques dont le plus important est la différence des moyennes standardisées. Les résultats obtenus à l’aide des données de l’Enquête longitudinale et expérimentale de Montréal (ÉLEM) indiquent que des trois techniques d’appariement, l’appariement génétique est celui qui équilibre mieux les variables entre les groupes sur tous les critères retenus. L’estimation de l’effet de l’intervention varie sensiblement d’une technique à l’autre, bien que dans tous les cas cet effet est non significatif. Ainsi, le choix d’une technique d’appariement influence l’estimation de l’effet d’une intervention. Il est donc impérieux de choisir la technique qui permet d’obtenir un équilibre optimal des variables selon les données à la disposition du chercheur. / The unbiased estimate of the causal effect of an intervention requires the comparison of two homogeneous groups. It is rare that an observational study has comparable groups and even an experiment may end up with non-comparable groups. The researchers then used correction techniques to make the two groups as similar as possible. The problem then is to choose the appropriate correction method. In our case, we will restrict our research to a family of so-called matching methods. It is recognized that what matters in a match is the balance between the two groups on selected characteristics. In other words, it is necessary that the variables are distributed similarly in both groups. Even before considering the distribution of variables between the two groups, it is necessary to know whether the data in question allow for causal inference. To present the problem rigorously, the counterfactual causal model will be exposed. Thereafter, the formal properties of three matching methods will be presented. Those methods are the Mahalanobis matching, the propensity score matching and genetic matching. The choice of the appropriate matching technique is based on four empirical criteria which the most important is the standardized mean difference. Results obtained using data from the Montréal Longitudinal and Experimental Study indicate that of the three matching techniques, genetic matching is the one that better balance the variables between groups on all criteria. The estimate of the effect of intervention varies substantially from one technique to another, although in all cases this effect is non significant. Thus, the selection of a matching technique influences the estimation of the effect of an intervention. Therefore, it is imperative to choose the technique that provides an optimal balance of the variables based on data available to the researcher.

<p dir="ltr">The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is run by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is presently under huge debt to the U.S. treasury. The debt is primarily caused by low flood insurance take-up rate, low willingness to pay for flood insurance, and large payouts after major disasters. Addressing this insolvency problem requires the NFIP to understand (1) what drives the demand for flood insurance so that it can be increased, (2) how risk factors contribute towards large flood insurance payouts so that effective risk reduction policies can be planned, and (3) how to predict the future flood insurance payouts so that the NFIP can be financially prepared. This research has answered these three fundamental questions by developing empirical models based on historical data. To answer the first question, this research has developed a propensity score-based causal model that analyzed one of the key components that influences the demand for flood insurance – the availability of post-disaster government assistance. It was found that the availability of the federal payout in a county in a year increased the number of flood insurance policies by 5.2% and the total insured value of the policies by 4.6% in the following year. Next, this research has developed Mixed Effects Regression model that quantified the causal relationships between the annual flood insurance payout in a county and flood related risk factors such as flood exposure, infrastructure vulnerability, social vulnerability, community resilience, and the number of mobile homes in the county. Based on the derived causal estimates, it was predicted that climate change, which is expected to increase flood exposure in coastal counties, will increase the annual NFIP payout in New Orleans, Louisiana by $2.04 billion in the next 30 years. Lastly, to make the NFIP financially prepared for future payouts, this research has developed a predictive model that can predict the annual NFIP payout in a county with adequate predictive accuracy. The predictive model was used to predict the NFIP payout for 2021 and it was able to predict that with a 9.8% prediction error. The outcomes of this research create new knowledge to inform policy decisions and strategies aimed at fortifying the NFIP. This includes strategies such as flood protection infrastructure, tailored disaster assistance, and other interventions that can bolster flood insurance uptake while mitigating the risk of substantial payouts. Ultimately, this research contributes to sustaining the NFIP's ability to provide vital flood insurance coverage to millions of Americans.</p>