The debate over allocation of rangeland resources has gained increasing momentum in the 1990’s. These days, several constraints are facing landowners, including high estate taxes, reduced profit margins of agricultural/ranching operations and increased legal restrictions in land use. Previous studies point out to strong private property rights among landowners, which have often been assumed to lead to short-term land management goals that are not particularly beneficial to society. This study analyses the multidimensionality of property rights and how this determines the variation in willingness to undertake various ecologically sustainable management practices without compensation and the variation in the perception of threats by the landowner. A study was conducted on randomly selected landowners in three states, Texas, Utah and Colorado in 2001; an average response rate of 51.3% was obtained across all three states. A descriptive analysis was conducted, tabulating the identifying characteristics of the respondent rancher/farmer and their property, their opinion regarding the rights and responsibilities of landowner, their likely willingness to implement different management practices and threats to the future viability of their ranching operation, searching for testable hypotheses. In analysis of effect of multidimensionality of property rights on the willingness to undertake management practices without compensation, results confirmed the significance of three property rights except the individual property rights scale. Respondent’s perception of the threats to the future viability of future operation was analyzed using directed acyclic graphs (DAG). The DAG revealed several directed edges (causal effects), but the presence of several bi-directed edges (cause and effect being indeterminable) were also identified. The subsequent regression analysis showed no significant property rights scales, but component analyses identified a few significant property rights orientations. The low significance is attributed to the presence of bi-directed edges.

In recent years, it has to spend lots of time and effort to get the certification of CMMI. Therefore, everyone is looking to tools or methods for speeding up the CMMI certification. CMMI level five, causal analysis and resolution, is an important issues for all industries. In the process of software development, we have to identify the causes for defects at first. Then, it uses a systematic approach to sum up the necessary causes for software defects in order to help managers make better decisions and develop action items. With no doubt, it is a very important issue in the process of software development. This study aims to explore the subject of using the methods of causal analysis and resolution to solve the problems of software defects. Through the implementation of CAR, we can determine the root causes of defects and avoid importing defects to products. This study focus on the implementations of CAR and it proposes the methods, procedures and management forms. Moreover, this study will introduce the Mill¡¦s methods for causal reasoning used in the structure of CAR. Therefore it can help managers with a better way to sum up the causes for defects. The study uses case study method. Firstly, it connects the company for data collection of cause and effect diagram and combines the Mill¡¦s methods to inductive causal and analysis. Then it arranges interviews with the company managers to identify the necessary causes of defects. Finally, it helps the company develop action items in order to achieve the causal analysis and resolutions in the process of software development.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第21917号 / 情博第700号 / 新制||情||120(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科システム科学専攻 / (主査)教授 加納 学, 教授 杉江 俊治, 教授 大塚 敏之 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM

Thesis advisor: Michael Grubb / Online reviews have gained importance for consumers when shopping for experience goods. This dissertation documents the impact of Tripadvisor.com reviews on the hotel industry. In the first chapter, I investigate the causal impact of Tripadvisor review ratings on hotel performance via a regression discontinuity design. The results indicate that a 1-point increase in review rating leads to a 1.6% increase in revenue, a 1% increase in bookings, and a 0.4% to 0.6% increase in prices. Furthermore, the impact on bookings has increased over time. In the second chapter, I evaluate the welfare impact of Tripadvisor review ratings in providing information about quality. I develop a structural model of hotel demand and supply that takes price endogeneity and capacity constraints into consideration. Counterfactual experiments reveal that the removal of Tripadvisor from the status quo results in per-capita consumer surplus loss ranging from $0 to $5.8, with a more significant decrease in consumer surplus when prior knowledge about quality is less accurate. Hotels with higher quality than expected absent reviews benefit from review ratings, while the opposite is true for others. In the third chapter, I analyze the relative influence of Tripadvisor ratings on chain-affiliated and independent hotels and evaluate the value of Tripadvisor ratings compared to chain brands using the methodology developed in previous chapters. I find there is no significant difference in the effect of rating rounding on occupancy rates for chain-affiliated hotels versus independent hotels. Counterfactual experiment results suggest that despite chain brands providing value to consumers, Tripadvisor ratings provide additional value of about $0 to $4 per capita. In scenarios where Tripadvisor was not present, Chain-affiliated hotels benefit from brand affiliation while independent hotels are harmed. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2023. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Attribution theory holds that the affective reaction and mood that people develop in response to a situation is to a great degree dependent on what they perceive has caused the situation. Self-blame is a specific result of certain attributions and often leads to depression. The main purpose of this study is to determine if a relationship exists between a specific, character-related linguistic bias and an increased risk for, and an elevated level of, depression. This is accomplished by comparing subjects' test results in a measure of linguistic bias with the Beck Depression Inventory score and with a measurement of attributional style. Further, by drawing on the philosophical basis of cognitive therapeutic practices, it is argued that self-blame is only related to depression if it is characterological in nature and that such characterological self-blame is implicit in the linguistic style of the individual. Elevated usage of the verb "to be" in evaluating a negative life event was found to correlate with an above-average level of the somatic symptoms of depression. Subjects who preferred "to be" sentences also made more attributions of stability in regard to the hypothetical negative scenarios. Very little correlation was obtained between depression levels and depressogenic attributions. It is argued that while the usage of specific words and the application of depressogenic attributions are confounded, the use of two separate questionnaires both related to a common vignette permits some separation. While linguistic bias does not explain the development of depression, it is at least as good a correlate as attributional style. Depressogenic biases in word usage may be the conscious expression of attributional style. / Thesis / Master of Science (MS)

Establishing causal relationships is arguably the most important task of the social sciences. While the relationship between the social sciences and the concept of causality has been rocky, the randomized experiment gives us a concrete definition of a causal effect as the difference in outcomes due to the researcher's intervention. However, many interesting questions cannot be easily examined using experiments. Feasibility and ethics limit the use of randomized experiments in some situations and retrospective questions, i.e., working from the observed outcome to uncover the cause, require a different logic. Observational studies in which we observe pairs of variables without any intervention lend themselves to such situations but come with many difficulties. That is, it is not immediately clear whether an observed relationship between two variables is due to a true causal effect, or whether the relationship is due to other common causes. Panel data describe repeated observations of the same units over time. They offer a powerful framework for approaching causal questions with observational data. Panel analysis allows us to essentially use each unit as their own control. In an experiment, random assignment to either treatment and control group makes both groups equal on all characteristics. Similarly, if we compare the same individual pre- and post-treatment, then the two are equal at least on the things that do not change over time, such as sex, date of birth, nationality, etc. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a group of statistical methods for assessing relationships between variables, often at the latent (unobserved) variable level. The use of SEM for panel analysis allows for a great deal of flexibility. Latent variables can be incorporated to account for measurement error and rule out alternative models. This dissertation focuses on the use of panel data in SEM for causal analysis. It comprises an introduction, four main chapters and a conclusion. After a short introduction (Chapter 1) outlining the goals and scope of the dissertation, Chapter 2 provides an overview of the topic of causality in the social sciences. Since the randomized experiment is often not feasible in social research, special emphasis has been placed on non-experimental, i.e., observational data. The chapter outlines some competing views on causality with non-experimental data, then discusses the two currently dominant frameworks for causal analysis, potential outcomes and directed graphs. It goes on to outline empirical methods and notes their compatibility with SEM. Chapter 3 discusses how panel data can be used to deal with unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity, i.e., stable characteristics that might normally confound analyses. It attempts to show in detail how basic panel regression in SEM works. It also discusses some issues that are not normally addressed outside of SEM, e.g., measurement error in observed variables, effects that change over time, model comparisons, etc. This discussion of the more basic panel regression setup provides a sort of basis for the more complex discussion in the following chapters. Chapter 4 compares and contrasts several ways to model dynamic processes, where the outcome at a particular point in time may affect future outcomes or even the presumed cause later on. It shows that popular recently proposed modeling techniques have much do to with their older counterparts. In fact, the newer modeling techniques do not seem to offer benefit with regards to estimating the causal effects of interest. The chapter focuses on arguably common situations in which the newer techniques may have serious drawbacks. Chapter 5 provides an applied example. It looks to better assess the causal effect of environmental attitudes on environmental behaviour (mobility, consumption, willingness to sacrifice). It touches on many of the aspects from the previous chapters, including the use of latent variables for constructs that are not directly observable, unobserved time-invariant confounders, state dependence (feedback from outcome to outcome), and reverse causality (feedback from outcome to cause). It shows that failure to account for time-invariant confounders leads to biased estimates of the effect of attitudes on behaviour. After controlling for these factors, the effects disappear in terms of mobility and consumption behaviour: when a person's attitudes become more positive, their behaviour does not become more environmentally-friendly. There is, however, a fairly robust effect of attitudes on willingness to sacrifice, even after controlling for unobserved time-invariant confounders, state dependence and reverse causality. This suggests changing attitudes do affect willingness to make sacrifices, holding potential time-invariant confounders, outcome to outcome feedback (essentially habits), as well as some time-varying confounders constant. Finally, Chapter 6 summarizes the previous chapters and provides an outlook for future work.:1. Introduction 2. Causal Inference in the Social Sciences 3. A Closer Look at Random and Fixed Effects Panel Regression in Structural Equation Modeling Using lavaan 4. Equivalent Approaches to Dealing with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Cross-Lagged Panel Models? 5. Re-Examining the Effect of Environmental Attitudes on Behaviour in a Panel Setting 6. Conclusion

The ubiquitous nature of software demands that software is released without faults. However, software developers inadvertently introduce faults into software during development. To remove the faults in software, one of the tasks developers perform is debugging. However, debugging is a difficult, tedious, and time-consuming process. Several semi-automated techniques have been developed to reduce the burden on the developer during debugging. These techniques consist of experimental, statistical, and program-structure based techniques. Most of the debugging techniques address the part of the debugging process that relates to finding the location of the fault, which is referred to as fault localization. The current fault-localization techniques have several limitations. Some of the limitations of the techniques include (1) problems with program semantics, (2) the requirement for automated oracles, which in practice are difficult if not impossible to develop, and (3) the lack of theoretical basis for addressing the fault-localization problem. The thesis of this dissertation is that statistical causal analysis combined with program analysis is a feasible and effective approach to finding the causes of software failures. The overall goal of this research is to significantly extend the state of the art in fault localization. To extend the state-of-the-art, a novel probabilistic model that combines program-analysis information with statistical information in a principled manner is developed. The model known as the probabilistic program dependence graph (PPDG) is applied to the fault-localization problem. The insights gained from applying the PPDG to fault localization fuels the development of a novel theoretical framework for fault localization based on established causal inference methodology. The development of the framework enables current statistical fault-localization metrics to be analyzed from a causal perspective. The analysis of the metrics show that the metrics are related to each other thereby allowing the unification of the metrics. Also, the analysis of metrics from a causal perspective reveal that the current statistical techniques do not find the causes of program failures instead the techniques find the program elements most associated with failures. However, the fault-localization problem is a causal problem and statistical association does not imply causation. Several empirical studies are conducted on several software subjects and the results (1) confirm our analytical results, (2) demonstrate the efficacy of our causal technique for fault localization. The results demonstrate the research in this dissertation significantly improves on the state-of-the-art in fault localization.

La sécurité routière est une priorité mondiale, européenne et française. Parce que les véhicules légers (ou simplement “les véhicules”) sont évidemment l’un des acteurs principaux de l’activité routière, l'amélioration de la sécurité routière passe nécessairement par l’analyse de leurs caractéristiques accidentologiques. Si les nouveaux véhicules sont développés en bureau d’étude et validés en laboratoire, c’est la réalité accidentologique qui permet de vraiment cerner comment ils se comportent en matière de sécurité secondaire, c’est-à-dire quelle sécurité ils offrent à leurs occupants lors d’un accident. C’est pourquoi les constructeurs souhaitent procéder au classement des générations de véhicules en fonction de leurs niveaux de sécurité secondaire réelle. Nous abordons cette thématique en exploitant les données nationales d’accidents corporels de la route appelées BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). En complément de celles-ci, les données de parc automobile permettent d’associer une classe générationelle (CG) à chaque véhicule. Nous élaborons deux méthodes de classement de CGs en termes de sécurité secondaire. La première produit des classements contextuels, c’est-à-dire des classements de CGs plongées dans des contextes d’accident. La seconde produit des classements globaux, c’est-`a-dire des classements de CGs déterminés par rapport à une distribution de contextes d’accident. Pour le classement contextuel, nous procédons par “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe un nombre réel à toute combinaison de CG et de contexte d’accident ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est sûre dans le contexte d’accident donné. La fonction de score optimale est estimée par “ensemble learning”, sous la forme d’une combinaison convexe optimale de fonctions de score produites par une librairie d’algorithmes de classement par scoring. Une inégalité oracle illustre les performances du méta-algorithme ainsi obtenu. Le classement global est également basé sur le principe de “scoring” : nous cherchons une fonction de score qui associe à toute CG un nombre réel ; plus ce nombre est petit, plus la CG est jugée sûre globalement. Des arguments causaux permettent d’adapter le méta-algorithme évoqué ci-dessus en s’affranchissant du contexte d’accident. Les résultats des deux méthodes de classement sont conformes aux attentes des experts. / Road safety is a world, European and French priority. Because light vehicles (or simply“vehicles”) are obviously one of the main actors of road activity, the improvement of roadsafety necessarily requires analyzing their characteristics in terms of traffic road accident(or simply “accident”). If the new vehicles are developed in engineering department and validated in laboratory, it is the reality of real-life accidents that ultimately characterizesthem in terms of secondary safety, ie, that demonstrates which level of security they offer to their occupants in case of an accident. This is why car makers want to rank generations of vehicles according to their real-life levels of safety. We address this problem by exploiting a French data set of accidents called BAAC (Bulletin d’Analyse d’Accident Corporel de la Circulation). In addition, fleet data are used to associate a generational class (GC) to each vehicle. We elaborate two methods of ranking of GCs in terms of secondary safety. The first one yields contextual rankings, ie, rankings of GCs in specified contexts of accident. The second one yields global rankings, ie, rankings of GCs determined relative to a distribution of contexts of accident. For the contextual ranking, we proceed by “scoring”: we look for a score function that associates a real number to any combination of GC and a context of accident; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC in the given context. The optimal score function is estimated by “ensemble learning”, under the form of an optimal convex combination of scoring functions produced by a library of ranking algorithms by scoring. An oracle inequality illustrates the performance of the obtained meta-algorithm. The global ranking is also based on “scoring”: we look for a scoring function that associates any GC with a real number; the smaller is this number, the safer is the GC. Causal arguments are used to adapt the above meta-algorithm by averaging out the context. The results of the two ranking procedures are in line with the experts’ expectations.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative force in wireless communications, driving innovation to address the complex challenges faced by communication systems. In this context, the optimization of limited radio resources plays a crucial role, and one important aspect is the Modulation and Coding Scheme (MCS) selection. AI solutions for MCS selection have been predominantly characterized as black-box models, which suffer from limited explainability and consequently hinder trust in these algorithms. Moreover, the majority of existing research primarily emphasizes enhancing explainability without concurrently improving the model’s performance which makes performance and explainability a trade-off. This work aims to address these issues by employing eXplainable AI (XAI), particularly counterfactual and causal analysis, to increase the explainability and trustworthiness of black-box models. We propose CounterFactual Retrain (CF-Retrain), the first method that utilizes counterfactual explanations to improve model performance and make the process of performance enhancement more explainable. Additionally, we conduct a causal analysis and compare the results with those obtained from an analysis based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value feature importance. This comparison leads to the proposal of novel hypotheses and insights for model optimization in future research. Our results show that employing CF-Retrain can reduce the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the black-box model by 4% while utilizing only 14% of the training data. Moreover, increasing the amount of training data yields even more pronounced improvements in MAE, providing a certain level of explainability. This performance enhancement is comparable to or even superior to using a more complex model. Furthermore, by introducing causal analysis to the mainstream SHAP value feature importance, we provide a novel hypothesis and explanation of feature importance based on causal analysis. This approach can serve as an evaluation criterion for assessing the model’s performance. / Artificiell intelligens (AI) har dykt upp som en transformativ kraft inom trådlös kommunikation, vilket driver innovation för att möta de komplexa utmaningar som kommunikationssystem står inför. I detta sammanhang spelar optimeringen av begränsade radioresurser en avgörande roll, och en viktig aspekt är valet av Modulation and Coding Scheme (MCS). AI-lösningar för val av modulering och kodningsschema har övervägande karaktäriserats som black-box-modeller, som lider av begränsad tolkningsbarhet och följaktligen hindrar förtroendet för dessa algoritmer. Dessutom betonar majoriteten av befintlig forskning i första hand att förbättra förklaringsbarheten utan att samtidigt förbättra modellens prestanda, vilket gör prestanda och tolkningsbarhet till en kompromiss. Detta arbete syftar till att ta itu med dessa problem genom att använda XAI, särskilt kontrafaktisk och kausal analys, för att öka tolkningsbarheten och pålitligheten hos svarta-box-modeller. Vi föreslår CF-Retrain, den första metoden som använder kontrafaktiska förklaringar för att förbättra modellens prestanda och göra processen med prestandaförbättring mer tolkningsbar. Dessutom gör vi en orsaksanalys och jämför resultaten med de som erhålls från en analys baserad på värdeegenskapens betydelse. Denna jämförelse leder till förslaget av nya hypoteser och insikter för modelloptimering i framtida forskning. Våra resultat visar att användning av CF-Retrain kan minska det genomsnittliga absoluta felet för black-box-modellen med 4% samtidigt som man använder endast 14% av träningsdata. Dessutom ger en ökning av mängden träningsdata ännu mer uttalade förbättringar av Mean Absolute Error (MAE), vilket ger en viss grad av tolkningsbarhet. Denna prestandaförbättring är jämförbar med eller till och med överlägsen att använda en mer komplex modell. Dessutom, genom att introducera kausal analys till de vanliga Shapley-tillsatsförklaringarna värdesätter egenskapens betydelse, ger vi en ny hypotes och tolkning av egenskapens betydelse baserad på kausalanalys. Detta tillvägagångssätt kan fungera som ett utvärderingskriterium för att bedöma modellens prestanda.

Les analyses effectuées dans le cadre de ce mémoire ont été réalisées à l'aide du module MatchIt disponible sous l’environnent d'analyse statistique R. / Statistical analyzes of this thesis were performed using the MatchIt package available in the statistical analysis environment R. / L’estimation sans biais de l’effet causal d’une intervention nécessite la comparaison de deux groupes homogènes. Il est rare qu’une étude observationnelle dispose de groupes comparables et même une étude expérimentale peut se retrouver avec des groupes non comparables. Les chercheurs ont alors recours à des techniques de correction afin de rendre les deux groupes aussi semblables que possible. Le problème consiste alors à choisir la méthode de correction appropriée. En ce qui nous concerne, nous limiterons nos recherches à une famille de méthodes dites d’appariement. Il est reconnu que ce qui importe lors d’un appariement est l’équilibre des deux groupes sur les caractéristiques retenues. Autrement dit, il faut que les variables soient distribuées de façon similaire dans les deux groupes. Avant même de considérer la distribution des variables entre les deux groupes, il est nécessaire de savoir si les données en question permettent une inférence causale. Afin de présenter le problème de façon rigoureuse, le modèle causal contrefactuel sera exposé. Par la suite, les propriétés formelles de trois méthodes d’appariement seront présentées. Ces méthodes sont l’appariement par la distance de Mahalanobis, de l’appariement par le score de propension et de l’appariement génétique. Le choix de la technique d’appariement appropriée reposera sur quatre critères empiriques dont le plus important est la différence des moyennes standardisées. Les résultats obtenus à l’aide des données de l’Enquête longitudinale et expérimentale de Montréal (ÉLEM) indiquent que des trois techniques d’appariement, l’appariement génétique est celui qui équilibre mieux les variables entre les groupes sur tous les critères retenus. L’estimation de l’effet de l’intervention varie sensiblement d’une technique à l’autre, bien que dans tous les cas cet effet est non significatif. Ainsi, le choix d’une technique d’appariement influence l’estimation de l’effet d’une intervention. Il est donc impérieux de choisir la technique qui permet d’obtenir un équilibre optimal des variables selon les données à la disposition du chercheur. / The unbiased estimate of the causal effect of an intervention requires the comparison of two homogeneous groups. It is rare that an observational study has comparable groups and even an experiment may end up with non-comparable groups. The researchers then used correction techniques to make the two groups as similar as possible. The problem then is to choose the appropriate correction method. In our case, we will restrict our research to a family of so-called matching methods. It is recognized that what matters in a match is the balance between the two groups on selected characteristics. In other words, it is necessary that the variables are distributed similarly in both groups. Even before considering the distribution of variables between the two groups, it is necessary to know whether the data in question allow for causal inference. To present the problem rigorously, the counterfactual causal model will be exposed. Thereafter, the formal properties of three matching methods will be presented. Those methods are the Mahalanobis matching, the propensity score matching and genetic matching. The choice of the appropriate matching technique is based on four empirical criteria which the most important is the standardized mean difference. Results obtained using data from the Montréal Longitudinal and Experimental Study indicate that of the three matching techniques, genetic matching is the one that better balance the variables between groups on all criteria. The estimate of the effect of intervention varies substantially from one technique to another, although in all cases this effect is non significant. Thus, the selection of a matching technique influences the estimation of the effect of an intervention. Therefore, it is imperative to choose the technique that provides an optimal balance of the variables based on data available to the researcher.