The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of free information on the Internet on decreasing sales of printed newspapers. I tested the main hypothesis that the increase in Internet daily visits in the previous period has an impact on the sales of the printed journal in the following period . Another researched phenomenon was the influence of previous rising visitors of web news on subsequent revenue from advertising in print version. These effects I researched on -month and quarterly data in panel of eight czech dailies for the period from 2006 to 2012. The result is that we could not confirm the effect of Granger causality between web pages and his dailies itself nor on a monthly or quarterly basis. When it comes to examining the impact of Internet visits to newspapers revenue from advertising, on the contrary, here we confirmed Granger causality on quarterly data from past revenues from advertising to the current Internet visits . This means that the Internet visits will decrease when there is increased advertising income of newspapers in the previous quarter, which is , however, difficult to interpret in economic terms . The main benefit of this work is that the effect of preceding of webiste visits and newspaper circulations was not confirmed.

In the recent years, there has been growing talk of investing in commodities in the financial markets. In the past, the commodity markets served for purposes of the producers and the end-users of commodities. With gradual innovation of the financial markets in the 19th and 20th century the modern commodity markets evolved and became more standardized. This process was accompanied by the increasing interest of financial speculators. In contrast with the commercial participants, the goal of these new investors in the commodity markets is not to hedge against adverse changes in commodity prices but to profit on the price movements of commodities. The inflow of this group was intensified by the development of new financial instruments enabling these investors to enter the commodity markets. It is undisputable that speculators have positive effect on the markets, by providing liquidity and lowering transaction costs. What remains to be answered is the real effect which the speculators have on the commodity prices, and if their action does not create distortion in the commodity prices. The price development on the commodity markets during the recent financial crisis gives strong arguments in the hands of those accusing the speculators of the negative impact on the commodity prices, which sometimes lead to creation of price bubbles. The goal of this thesis will be the analysis of the effect of speculators on the commodity markets, and if this prejudice is justified.

Graphical models in statistics and econometrics provide capability to describe causal relations using causal graph in classical regression analysis and others econometric tools. Goal of this thesis is description of causal modelling of time series with help of structural models of vector autoregression. There is description of procedure of building structural VAR model, principle of graphical models and building model for causal dependence analysis. For purpose of comparison there are used data from both USA and Czech Republic and comparison of similar models for both countries is presented. Best models are then selected, to show causal relations between macroeconomic variables. For purpose of analysis, impulse-response functions are used to show impact of demand shock on GDP and other macro indicators.

This research addressed two main issues that have become evident in studies of interstate cooperation. The first issue has to do with the relationship between cooperation and conflict. Can they be represented on a single, uni-dimensional continuum, or are they better represented by two theoretically and empirically separable dimensions? Granger causality tests were able to clarify the nature of cooperative events. The second issue is related to factors that might facilitate or discourage cooperation with other countries as a foreign policy tool. Factors used to explain cooperation and conflict include domestic variables, which have not been fully accounted for in previous empirical analyses. It is hypothesized that economic variables, such as inflation rates, GDP, and manufacturing production indices affect the likelihood of cooperative event occurrences. The effect of political dynamics, such as electoral cycles, support rates and national capability status, can also affect the possibility of cooperative foreign policies. The domestic factors in panel data was tested with Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) in order to take care of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelations in residuals. The individual case analysis used linear time series analysis.

O mercado do milho no Brasil tem demonstrado algumas mudanças nos últimos anos aumentando sua importância no agronegócio. Por esse motivo, tem sido maior a necessidade de estudo de suas características. O objetivo da presente dissertação consiste em verificar como se dá a transmissão de preços entre os mercados regionais dessa commodity no Brasil a nível de produtor, com foco nos estados da região Sul e Centro-Oeste, devido à sua importância para a produção nacional. Além disso, também foi buscado analisar como os preços dos estados analisados reagem ao preço cotado na bolsa de valores para saber qual sua relação com o mercado externo. O método de pesquisa utilizado foi: teste de raiz unitária; teste de cointegração; vetor de correção de erro; teste de causalidade de Granger e teste de impulso-resposta. Os resultados do teste de cointegração indicam que há transmissão de preços entre todos os estados analisados, bem como os estados respondem a oscilações de preços do mercado externo a longo prazo. O fato de existir cointegração entre os estados é condição suficiente para se afirmar que existe relação linear de equilíbrio para a qual o sistema converge, validando os pressupostos da Lei do Preço Único e a integração. Todos os estados apresentaram resposta significativa a mudanças de preços no estado de Santa Catarina pelo vetor de correção de erro (VEC), mostrando que esse estado tem forte influência na formação de preços dos estados das duas regiões analisadas. No curto prazo foi observado que os estados de Mato Grosso e Rio Grande do Sul não recebem influência direta das oscilações de preços dos outros mercados, enquanto os estados de Paraná, Santa Catarina e Goiás parecem ser interdependentes a curto prazo, pois apresentam relativa correlação. Além disso, a função impulso resposta demonstra também que um impulso nos preços do estado de Santa Catarina gera resposta significativa nos preços dos outros estados de forma geral, e um impulso no preço do estado de Goiás também gera uma reação forte no preço do estado do Mato Grosso. / The corn market in Brazil has shown some changes in recent years increasing its importance in agribusiness. For this reason has increased the need for more studies related to this market’s characteristics . The objective of this dissertation is to check how is the price transmission between regional markets in Brazil at producer level for this commodity, focusing on states of the South and Midwest of the country, because of its importance to the national production. Furthermore, it was also sought to analyze how the prices of the analyzed states react to the price quoted on the stock market, looking for understanding how is its relationship with the external market. The research method used was: the unit root test , cointegration test , vector error correction; Granger causality test and impulse response test. The result of the cointegration test indicates that there is price transmission between all the states analyzed as well as states respond to price fluctuations on the stock market in the long run . The existence of cointegration between the states is sufficient to say that there is a linear equilibrium relationship to which converges the sistem, validating the assumptions of the Law of One Price and the integration condition. All states showed significant responses to price changes in the state of Santa Catarina by the vector error correction ( VEC ) , showing that this state has a strong influence on the pricing of the states on the two regions. In the short term it was observed that the states of Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul receive no direct influence from the prices of other markets, while the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Goiás seem to be interdependent in the short term because they present a correlation. As well, the impulse response function also shows that a surge in prices in the state of Santa Catarina generates a significant response in prices of other states in general, and a boost in the price of Goias also generates a strong reaction in the price of Mato Grosso.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-01T18:18:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_paulo_rodolfo.pdf: 1398797 bytes, checksum: 885ace9b000c518adcf4f3a47ade0eed (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-10-31 / Since the most remote civilizations, where the procedural activity, albeit in embryonic form, unfolding in an orderly and systematic, it presents a clear notion that the quest for realization of a right infringed involves the production costs. These are not limited to procedural cost of travel itself, as the payment of expenses for maintaining the functional structure of justice and those belonging to it at various levels. Already in ancient Greece, when it allowed the citizen to be represented before the Court by a consultant, evolved into today's professional advocacy, prosecutorial activity involves the allocation of expenditures indispensable parties without whom the realization of their rights may be compromise. And in the end, when the law would be ensured by the delivery by the judiciary on judicial protection, citizens still can not see fully satisfied its claim until it has reimbursed the expenses were being forced to make to the realization of their right. Such a scenario demanded the Science of Law to develop systems of accountability of the parties for the expenses generated by the process which finally resulted in the Chiovenda s thesis, the theory of defeat, today harshly criticized by the criterion of causality. The research aims to investigate the structure of these systems of accountability, starting with the analysis of the most relevant theories attributing the financial burden of the process, the historical juncture Greco-Roman, to the scenario Luso-Brazilian, Empire to Republic. Analyzes some foreign legal systems, merging the study of existing qualifications to the doctrine of each country. Understand the evolution of the Brazilian procedural law, notes about the positioning of national doctrinal dogma of the fall, then going to a critical analysis of this criterion against the principle of causality. Finally, this paper investigates the possibility of peaceful coexistence of the criteria of defeat and causality, questioning the reasons and goals of each one / Desde as mais remotas civilizações, onde a atividade processual, mesmo que de forma embrionária, se desenrolava de maneira ordenada e sistemática, apresenta-se clara a noção de que a busca pela efetivação de um direito violado implica na produção de despesas. Estas não se limitam ao custeio da marcha processual em si, como o pagamento dos gastos para a manutenção da estrutura funcional da Justiça e daqueles que a integram em vários níveis. Já na Grécia antiga, quando se permitiu que o cidadão fosse representado perante a Corte por um consultor, hoje evoluído no profissional da advocacia, a atividade processual implica na imputação às partes de gastos indispensáveis sem os quais a efetivação de seu direito pode ser comprometida. E ao final, quando o direito viesse a ser assegurado através da entrega pelo Poder Judiciário da tutela jurisdicional, o cidadão ainda assim não veria integralmente satisfeita sua pretensão enquanto não lhe fossem ressarcidas as despesas que se viu obrigado a fazer para a efetivação de seu direito. Tal cenário demandou da Ciência do Direito o desenvolvimento de sistemas de responsabilização das partes pelas despesas geradas pelo processo, que finalmente com a tese Chiovendiana, consagraram a teoria da sucumbência, hoje em dia duramente criticada pelo critério da causalidade. A pesquisa tem por objetivo investigar a estrutura destes sistemas de responsabilização, iniciando-se pela análise das mais relevantes teorias de imputação da carga financeira do processo, da histórica conjuntura Greco-romana, até o cenário luso-brasileiro, Império à Republica. Analisa alguns ordenamentos jurídicos estrangeiros, mesclando o estudo dos diplomas vigentes com a doutrina pátria de cada um. Entende a evolução da legislação processual brasileira, constata o posicionamento doutrinário nacional acerca do dogma da sucumbência, partindo então para uma análise crítica deste critério frente ao princípio da causalidade. Por fim, a presente dissertação investiga a possibilidade da convivência harmônica dos critérios da sucumbência e da causalidade, questionando as justificativas e objetivos de cada um dos critérios

Redes complexas aplicadas em sinais de atividade cerebral mostraram a presença de anormais padrões de conectividade em pacientes que sofriam com doenças e outros distúrbios psiquiátricos. Logo, passou-se a cogitar a influência dessas estruturas na causa desses problemas e o que leva ao desenvolvimento desses padrões anormais. Do ponto de vista teórico, vários trabalhos mostram como a topologia de uma rede pode alterar um processo que se sustenta nela, por exemplo o modo como a rede influencia a propagação de falhas de um sistema, a sincronização ou processos de dispersão. Nesse sentido, o objetivo do trabalho é caracterizar as redes funcionais de pacientes durante episódios de crises de epilepsia, fazendo um paralelo entre a estrutura dessas redes e os processos dinâmicos envolvidos na crise, em especial a sincronização. Para isto, dados reais foram analisados e as redes inferidas em um primeiro passo. Depois, simulações de sistemas artificiais usando os parâmetros obtidos das análises, mostram o impacto dessas redes nos processos dinâmicos. Os resultados apontam para estruturas que podem aumentar a sincronização e a influência do modo de acoplamento nesses sistemas. / Complex networks applied to brain activity signals show the presence abnormal of connectivity patterns in patients suffering with diseases and others psychiatric disorders. From this, some authors began to question the influence of these structures in the cause of these problems and how it leads to the development of these abnormal patterns. From a theoretical point of view, several studies show how the topology of a network can change a process that maintains it, for example how a network influences the propagation of a system failure, synchronization or diffusion processes. In this sense, the objective of this study is to characterize the functional networks of patients during episodes of seizures, making a parallel between the structure of these networks and the dynamic processes involved in the epilepsy, in particular the synchronization. For this, real data were analyzed and the inferred networks in a first step. And then, artificial simulations using the parameters obtained from the analysis were employed to show the impact of these networks in dynamic processes. The results indicate structures that can enhance the synchronization and the influence of the coupling mode on these systems.

The study examined the relationship between financial intermediation and poverty in selected developing countries. In particular the study sought to examine the deterministic relationship, cointegration and the causality between financial intermediation and poverty. Panel data spanning the period 2004-2016 for 35 developing countries was employed. Substantial empirical research proposed that financial development expands economic prospects and reduces poverty and inequality. Hitherto, there is a dearth of empirical studies on the potential effects of formal financial dimensions of financial access, financial efficiency and financial stability in reducing poverty. There is also a lack of empirical work on the joint effect of the other financial dimensions in a financial intermediation setting in poverty reduction. The present study contributed to literature by including these financial dimensions in examining cointegration and causality between financial dimensions and poverty. The study employed a number of econometric methodologies to address the objectives of the research such as the GMM, panel ARDL and panel ECM. The GMM was employed to examine the determinants of poverty that were selected for this study. To examine the long run, short run and the causal relationship, the panel ARDL and the error correction model were used. In addition the study deployed PCA to develop the composite index for institutional quality. Panel heterogenous estimation methods such as the pooled mean group to infer the cointegration and causal effect between the financial dimensions and poverty were employed. The Hausman test was used to determine the most appropriate estimator and the PMG estimator was selected as the most appropriate since the p-value of the Hausman test was insignificant. The results from panel ARDL, cointegration test showed the existence of a long run relationship between financial intermediation, financial access, financial efficiency, financial access and poverty. Furthermore, the study noted that the relationship between financial intermediation and poverty differ depending on how poverty is measured. Therefore, the distortions in understanding and definition of poverty may consequently lead to distorted policies that yield little or no results for the effectiveness of the financial sector in poverty reduction.The study found strong causality in the long run for all the poverty proxies and the selected financial variables. Additionally the results from the panel causality tests indicate the bidirectional causality of the variables in the long run. We fail to observe the causality among most iii of the variables in the short run. There is strong joint causality among the variables in the panel as the results of the error correction term is negative and significant indicating that there is dynamic stability between the financial variables and poverty. The study further included the domestic public debt and remittances as determinants of poverty in a financial intermediation setting. Since domestic public debt can crowd out private credit, this study included domestic public debt for the panel of the developing countries and the study found that domestic public debt has a poverty reducing effect. Additionally the study found that remittances reduce the share of population living in poverty whilst increasing inequality as indicated in the findings of the study. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking

L’histoire des mots est souvent liée à l’histoire des Hommes ; à moins que ce ne soit l’inverse. Si la réparation n’avait pas réussi à s’émanciper de la sanction, le concept de responsabilité civile ne serait jamais né. Né par la réparation et pour la réparation, il lui a toujours été associé. Encore aujourd’hui, de nombreux auteurs tiennent ces deux notions pour synonymes . Pourtant, la responsabilité civile a muri et elle s’est montrée apte à remplir d’autres fonctions que la réparation des dommages causés ; des fonctions d’abord accessoires – normative, préventive et punitive –, puis des fonctions alternatives – comme la cessation de l’illicite et le paiement. A priori le tryptique – dommage, fait générateur, lien de causalité –, qui conditionne sa mise en jeu, était adapté à sa fonction de réparation ; il l’est peut être moins à ses nouvelles fonctions. C’est ce que nous tenterons d’éprouver dans une première partie.Une fois les frontières du tryptique – dommage, fait générateur, lien de causalité –clairement dessinées, nous nous intéresserons à son fonctionnement. La capacité qu’a une seule et même institution – la responsabilité civile – à remplir des fonctions si différentes que la réparation, la punition, la cessation de l’illicite, ou encore le paiement, interpelle nécessairement. Les relations existant entre les conditions de la responsabilité pourraient l’expliquer. C’est ce que nous tenterons de démontrer dans une seconde partie. / The history of words is often linked to the history of men; unless it's the other way around. If the remedy failed to break free of the penalty, the concept of civil liability would never be born. Born by repair and for repair, it has always been associated with it. Even today, many authors take these two notions for synonyms. However, civil liability has matured and it has shown itself capable of performing other functions than repairing the damage caused; functions first ancillary - normative, preventive and punitive - and then alternative functions - such as cessation of illicit and payment. A priori, the triptych - a damage, a generative event, a causal link - which conditions is putting into play, was adapted to its reparation function; he may be less so with his new duties. This is what we will try to test in the first part.Once the borders of the triptych - damage, generating fact, causal link - clearly drawn, we will focus on its operation. The ability of one and the same institution - civil liability - to perform functions so different that reparation, punishment, cessation of the wrongful act, or even payment, is necessary necessary. The relations existing between the conditions of the responsibility could explain it. This is what we will try to demonstrate in a second part.

<p>Predmet istraživanja u disertaciji je analiza uticaja investicija na<br />transformaciju i poslovne aktivnosti preduzeća sa posebnim akcentom na<br />istraživanje performansi primene modela investiranja, a u funkciji efektivnog i<br />efikasnog procesa transformacije preduzeća.<br />Op&scaron;ti cilj je utvrđivanje performansi investicija, odnosno uticaja investicija na<br />tok i efekte transformacije i poslovne aktivnosti preduzeća u Republici Srbiji.<br />Rezultat istraživanja je da su strane direktne investicije u države regiona od<br />zanemarljivog indirektnog značaja za berzu Republike Srbije, a samim tim i<br />za ekonomski rast Republike Srbije.</p> / <p>The subject of research in the dissertation is the analysis of the impact of investments<br />on transformation and business activities of the company with special emphasis on the<br />research of the performance of the application of the investment model, as a function<br />of effective and efficient process of transformation of the company.<br />The overall objective is to determine the performance of investments, that is, the<br />impact of investments on the flow and effects of transformation and business activities<br />of companies in the Republic of Serbia.<br />The result of the research is that foreign direct investments in the countries of the<br />region are of negligible indirect importance for the stock exchange of the Republic of<br />Serbia, and therefore for the economic growth of the Republic of Serbia.</p>