In der vorliegenden Arbeit soll der Zusammenhang zwischen Staatsverschuldung und Inflation untersucht werden. Es werden theoretische Übertragungswege von der Staatsverschuldung über die Geldmenge und die langfristigen Zinsen hin zur Inflation gezeigt. Aufbauend auf diesen theoretischen Überlegungen werden die Variablen Staatsverschuldung, Verbraucherpreisindex, Geldmenge M3 und langfristige Zinsen im Rahmen eines Vektor-Fehlerkorrekturmodells untersucht. In der empirischen Analyse werden die Variablen für Deutschland in dem Zeitraum vom 1. Quartal 1991 bis zum 4. Quartal 2010 betrachtet. In ein Vektor-Fehlerkorrekturmodell fließen alle Variablen als potentiell endogen in das Modell ein. Die Ermittlung der Kointegrationsbeziehungen und die Schätzung des Vektor-Fehlerkorrekturmodells erfolgen mithilfe des Johansen-Verfahrens. / In the following study the relation between the public debt and the inflation will be analysed. The transmission from the public debt to the inflation through the money supply and long term interest rate will be shown. Based on these theoretical thoughts the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and the long term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model. In the empirical part of this paper we will evaluate the timeperiod from the first quarter in 1991 until the fourth quarter in 2010 for Germany. In a vector error correction model every variable can be taken as endogenous. The variables in the model will be tested for cointegrated relationships and estimated with the Johansen-Approach.

This dissertation consists of four papers, each with an application of a discrete dependent variable model, censored regression or duration model to a credit market phenomenon or monetary policy question. The first three essays deal with bank lending policy, while the last one studies interest rate policy by Central Banks. In the first essay, a bivariate probit model is estimated to contrast the factors that influence banks’ loan granting decision and individuals’ risk of default. This model is used as a tool to construct a Value at Risk measure of the credit risk involved in a portfolio of consumer loans and to investigate the efficiency of bank lending policy. The second essay takes the conclusions from the first paper as a starting point. It investigates if the fact that banks do not minimize default risk can be explained by the existence of return maximization policy. For this purpose, a Tobit model with sample selection effects and variable censoring limits is developed and estimated on the survival times of consumer loans. The third paper focuses on dormancy, instead of default risk or survival time, as the most important factor affecting risk and return in bank lending. By means of a duration model the factors determining the transition from an active status to dormancy are studied. The estimated model is used to predict the expected durations to dormancy and to analyze the expected profitability for a sample loan applicants. In the fourth paper, the discrete nature of Central Bank interest rate policy is studied. A grouped data model, that can take the long periods of time without changes in the repo rate by the Central Bank into account, is estimated on weekly Swedish data. The model is found to be reasonably good at predicting interest rate changes. / Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-02-12T11:17:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ronaldotrogodealmeida.pdf: 1648591 bytes, checksum: 8908c04560a36cd8ba7b3e2a5858d5a0 (MD5) / Rejected by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br), reason: Renata, não entendi porque o título está entre aspas “O efeito da transparência sobre a incerteza inflacionária no Brasil dentro do regime de metas” on 2016-02-26T12:10:54Z (GMT) / Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-02-26T12:14:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ronaldotrogodealmeida.pdf: 1648591 bytes, checksum: 8908c04560a36cd8ba7b3e2a5858d5a0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-03-03T13:39:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ronaldotrogodealmeida.pdf: 1648591 bytes, checksum: 8908c04560a36cd8ba7b3e2a5858d5a0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-03T13:39:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ronaldotrogodealmeida.pdf: 1648591 bytes, checksum: 8908c04560a36cd8ba7b3e2a5858d5a0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-15 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este trabalho teve por objetivo analisar a relação entre incerteza inflacionária e transparência do banco central dentro do período de metas de inflação, de julho de 2003 a maio de 2010. Para tanto, foram realizados dois desenvolvimentos teóricos, em que no primeiro se fez uso do desenvolvimento de Demertzis e Hallet (2007) com o arcabouço teórico da curva de oferta de Lucas como restrição, enquanto o segundo utilizou o arcabouço teórico da curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana que, além de contar com a função perda do banco central, incorpora a função perda dos agentes, passando estes a serem afetados diretamente pelas decisões da autoridade monetária. Cabe ressaltar que nos desenvolvimentos realizados houve uma modificação crucial em relação à literatura no que tange a importância da transparência no ambiente econômico, usualmente avaliada sobre a trajetória das variáveis econômicas e suas variâncias, conforme resultados de Demertzis e Hallet (2007). Contudo, nesta dissertação, a importância da transparência incide essencialmente sobre a incerteza dos agentes econômicos em relação à inflação futura através dos erros de previsão destes, baseado fundamentalmente nos pressupostos de Lahiri e Sheng (2010), em que os agentes econômicos no caso brasileiro são representados pelos participantes da pesquisa Focus. Dado o arcabouço utilizado no primeiro modelo, as relações teóricas encontradas não apontaram importância da transparência sobre a incerteza inflacionária dos indivíduos, sendo esta medida afetada essencialmente pelos choques de oferta da economia. No entanto, no que concerne ao exercício empírico, os resultados sugerem que uma parcela substancial da variabilidade observada na incerteza individual não é explicada pela variação observada nos choques de oferta, havendo, portanto, a possibilidade de que outros fatores possam ser incorporados, uma vez que o modelo teórico sugere que, caso os agentes não enfrentem problemas de comunicação com a autoridade monetária, os choques de oferta deveriam ser a origem da incerteza individual. Desta forma, existe espaço para explorarmos o problema considerando um novo arcabouço teórico representado pela curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana, que permitiu a inserção da discussão da transparência sobre a incerteza inflacionária dos agentes. Os resultados empíricos comprovaram as relações teóricas apresentadas, ou seja, a variável referente à transparência política do banco central foi assaz importante na explicação da incerteza inflacionária dos agentes durante o período de interesse. / This study aimed to analyze the relation between inflation uncertainty and transparency of the central bank within the period of inflation targeting, from July 2003 to May 2010. Therefore, there were two theoretical developments, in which the first was made use of development Demertzis and Hallet (2007) with the theoretical framework of the Lucas supply curve as restriction, while the second used the theoretical framework of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, in addition to the central bank’s loss function, incorporates loss function of the agents, passing these to be directly affected by the decisions of the monetary authority. Note that the developments made there was a crucial change from the literature regarding the importance of transparency in the economic environment, usually evaluated on the trajectory of economic variables and their variances, according to results of Demertzis and Hallet (2007). However, in this work, the importance of transparency essentially concerns the uncertainty of economic agents regarding future inflation through the forecast errors of these fundamentally based on the assumptions of Lahiri and Sheng (2010), in which economic agents in the Brazilian case are represented by the research participants Focus. Given the framework used in the first model, the theoretical relationships found not pointed importance of transparency on inflation uncertainty of individuals, and this measure is affected primarily by supply shocks in the economy. However, regarding the empirical exercise, the results suggest that a substantial portion of the variability in the individual uncertainty is not explained by variation in the supply shocks observed, and therefore there is the possibility that other factors can be incorporated once the theoretical model suggests that if the agents do not face communication problems with the monetary authority, the supply shocks should be the origin of individual uncertainty. Thus, there is room to explore the problem considering a new theoretical framework represented by the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, which allowed the insertion of the discussion of transparency on inflation uncertainty of the agents. The empirical results confirm the theory with the relations, that is, the variable on the central bank policy transparency was quite important in explaining inflation uncertainty of the agents during the period of interest.

Under de senaste 14 åren har den svenska kronan genomgått en period av depreciering mot många andra valutor. Detta väcker frågan om vad som ligger till grund för växelkursens rörelser. Denna studie ämnar därför undersöka om det öppna ränteparitetsvillkoret kan förklara relationen mellan förändringar i växelkurser och räntedifferenser på kort sikt. För att undersöka frågan har två regressionsmodeller konstruerats med räntedifferenser som förklarande variabel och fluktuationer i växelkursen som beroende variabel. Studien begränsas till att undersöka förhållandet mellan Sverige som inhemskt land och Euroområdet samt USA som utländska områden/länder. Eftersom euron och den amerikanska dollarn kategoriseras som “safe haven” valutor inkluderas safe haven teorin som en sekundär aspekt i analysen. Studien använder månadsvis data över perioden 1999-2022. Regressionsmodellernas resultat visar en korrelation som är något avvikande från det öppna ränteparitetsvillkoret. Regressionsmodellerna presenterar icke-signifikanta resultat och studiens slutsats är därmed att undersökningen inte presenterar tillräckligt med bevis för att säkerställa att den sanna relationen mellan räntedifferenser och förändringar i växelkursen skiljer sig signifikant från ränteparitetsvillkoret. / Over the past fourteen years the Swedish krona has undergone a period of depreciation against many other currencies. This raises the question of what factors drive the movements of the exchange rate. This study intends to examine if the open interest parity condition can explain the relationship between fluctuations in the exchange rate and the interest rate differentials in the short term. To examine the subject two regression models have been constructed with the interest rate differentials as the explanatory variable and fluctuations in the exchange rate as the dependent variable. The research is narrowed down to examine the relationship between Sweden as the domestic country and the euro area and USA as foreign areas/countries. As the euro and the american dollar are categorized as “safe haven” currencies the safe haven theory is also included as a secondary aspect of the analysis. The study utilizes monthly data over the period 1999-2022. The results of the regression models show a correlation that deviates somewhat from the open interest parity condition. The regression models present non-significant results and the study's conclusion is thus that the study does not present enough evidence to ensure that the true relationship between interest rate differentials and changes in the exchange rate differs significantly from the interest parity condition.