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Today's Credit Market - How to Avoid a House of Cards? : Austrian Full Reserves and the Chicago Plan as Alternatives to the Current Fractional ReservesEriksson, Julia, Jordeby, Julia January 2017 (has links)
Today’s household debt consists for the most part of credit money, and this general phenomenon does not only occur in Sweden. Money in the economy is mostly created by private banks, as much as 97 percent of the money in the United States, while central banks only create a very small share of all money. This is the reason for the oppressed household debt. During this period of high debt in Sweden, the household consumption has also increased in comparison to earlier years. The aim is to study and compare how the money supply in two different full-reserve systems, the Austrian through convertibility and the Chicago plan through quantity control, would reduce the household debt in relation to today’s fractional system. The method used in this study is a time series analysis where data of Sweden’s household debt, savings, money supply; M1 and M3, GDP, assets, currency reserves, gold reserves and interest rates has been collected for the years 2005-2013. These are further examined in three different equations. The data for all the variables was collected from SCB, IMF, Ekonomifakta and the World Data Bank. The first theory that is used in this study is Wicksell’s cumulative process which will explain how the money supply M3 affects household debt in today's fractional reserve system. The second theory is the Austrian Business Cycle Theory which will examine the money supply M1 effect on household debt through full reserves by convertibility control. The third theory is the Friedman rule, where the effect of household debt by money supply M1 will be examined. This rule explains how the Chicago Plan is affecting household debt through a full reserve system by quantity control. In the both systems, fractional reserves and full reserves, the debt will increase in this study. The result shows that with full reserves, the household debt would be backed by savings in comparison to fractional reserves, where household debt would be backed by credit money. Therefore, full reserves would contribute to a healthier economy in contrast to today’s fractional system. Since it would involve a large cost for Sweden to transcend to an Austrian system through convertibility, where price inertia would occur as well, the conclusion of this study is that the Chicago Plan, based on the quantity principle, is to prefer. / Största delen av hushållens skuldsättning består idag av kreditpengar, och detta generella fenomen finns inte bara i Sverige. Pengarna i ekonomin är för det mesta skapade av affärsbankerna, så mycket som 97 procent i USA, medan centralbanken endast skapar en liten del av dessa pengar. Detta är anledningen till de höga hushållsskulderna. Under den här perioden av hög skuldsättning i Sverige så har även hushållens konsumtion ökat i förhållande till tidigare år. Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra hur penningmängden i två olika hundraprocentiga reservsystem, den österrikiska konjunkturcykeln, genom konvertibilitet, och Chicago planen, genom kvantitetskontroll, skulle reducera hushållens skulder i relation till dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Metoden som används i denna studie är en tidsserieanalys där data från hushållens skulder, sparande, penningmängd; M1 och M3, BNP, tillgångar, guldreserver, valutareserver och repo räntan har samlats in under åren 2005-2013. Dessa variabler är studerade i tre olika ekvationer och all data har samlats in från SCB; IMF, Ekonomifakta och the World Data Bank. Den första teorin som används är Wicksells kumulativa process som beskriver hur penningmängden M3 påverkar hushållens skulder i dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Den andra teorin är den österrikiska konjunkturcykel teorin och kommer att undersöka penningmängden M1 effekt på hushållens skulder med ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med konvertibilitetskontroll. Den tredje teorin är Friedmans regel, där effekten på hushållens skulder kommer att bli undersökt med hjälp av penningmängden M1. Denna regel förklarar hur Chicagoplanen påverkar hushållens skulder via ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med kvantitetskontroll. Hushållens skuldsättning ökade i samtliga regressioner och resultaten visar att med hundraprocentiga reserver så skulle hushållens skulder vara backade med sparande, jämfört med bråkdelsreserver, där hushållens skulder skulle vara backade med krediter. Därför skulle hundraprocentiga reserver bidra till en mer välmående ekonomi. Eftersom det skulle tillkomma höga kostnader att övergå till ett österrikiskt system med konvertibilitet, så är slutsatsen av denna studie att istället implementera Chicagoplanen baserad på kvantitetsprincipen.
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La proposition 100% monnaie des années 1930 : clarification conceptuelle et analyse théorique / The 100% money proposal of the 1930s : conceptual clarification and theoretical analysisDemeulemeester, Samuel 06 December 2019 (has links)
Cette thèse étudie la proposition 100% monnaie, telle qu’elle fut formulée aux États-Unis dans les années 1930 par Henry Simons (l’auteur principal du « Plan de Chicago »), Lauchlin Currie et Irving Fisher notamment. L’essence de cette proposition est de divorcer la création de monnaie des prêts de monnaie : les dépôts servant de moyens de paiement seraient soumis à 100% de réserve en monnaie légale, conférant à l’État un monopole de la création monétaire. Cette idée de réforme étant régulièrement sujette à confusion, nous entreprenons de clarifier son concept et d’étudier ses principaux arguments. Au chapitre 1, nous montrons que le 100% monnaie ne saurait être considéré comme un simple avatar des idées de la « Currency School » : contrairement à l’Acte de Peel de 1844, il ne contient en soi aucune règle d’émission, laissant ouvert le débat « règle ou discrétion ». Au chapitre 2, distinguant entre deux grandes approches du 100% monnaie, nous montrons que celui-ci n’implique nullement d’abolir l’intermédiation bancaire basée sur les dépôts d’épargne. Au chapitre 3, nous analysons, à travers les travaux de Fisher, l’objectif principal du 100% monnaie : celui de mettre fin au comportement procyclique du volume de monnaie, causé par le lien de dépendance entre création monétaire et prêts bancaires. Au chapitre 4, nous étudions un autre argument du 100% monnaie : celui de permettre une réduction de la dette publique, en rendant à l’État l’intégralité du seigneuriage – argument souvent critiqué, dont nous montrons qu’il n’est pourtant pas infondé. Alors que le 100% monnaie suscite un regain d’intérêt depuis la crise de 2008, il nous a paru fondamental de clarifier ces questions. / This thesis studies the 100% money proposal, such as it was formulated in the United States in the 1930s by Henry Simons (the main author of the “Chicago Plan”), Lauchlin Currie and Irving Fisher in particular. The essence of this proposal is to divorce the creation of money from the lending of money: deposits serving as means of payment would be subjected to 100% reserves in lawful money, awarding the state a monopoly over money creation. Because this reform idea is regularly subject to confusion, we endeavour to clarify its concept and study its main arguments. In chapter 1, we show that the 100% money proposal ought not to be viewed as a mere avatar of the “Currency School” ideas: contrary to Peel’s Act of 1844, it contains no issuing rule by itself, leaving open the debate “rule or discretion”. In chapter 2, distinguishing between two broad approaches to the 100% money proposal, we show that it does not imply abolishing bank intermediation based on savings deposits at all. In chapter 3, we analyse, through Fisher’s works, the main objective of the 100% money proposal: that of putting an end to the pro-cyclical behaviour of the volume of money, caused by the dependency relationship between money creation and bank loans. In chapter 4, we study another argument of the 100% money proposal: that of allowing a reduction of public debt, by returning the totality of seigniorage back to the state—an oft-criticised argument, which, as we show, is not unfounded however. While the 100% money proposal has been arousing renewed interest since the 2008 crisis, we thought it was fundamental to clarify these issues.
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