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This thesis analyzes the People's Republic of China's modernization strategy in order to test the hypothesis according to which the "open-door" policy might represent a shift from Marxism to a Neoclassical economy model. To do so, the author compares the performance realized by the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and by the newly established Shanghai-Pudong New Area (1990). Although it benefits from the fourteen year old SEZs experience, it is argued, Pudong duplicates the flaws inherent to the SEZs and fails to offer advancement over their development. The author then suggests that China's initial objective to build a strong modern socialist country has apparently been gradually displaced by an evolutionary process of change similar to that in the Asian New Industrialized Countries (NICs), namely South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

The need to improve the quality of government decision-making and tailor China's management to its more complex economy after Mao's death forced China's Party authorities to implement a number of administrative reforms, and to select administrative leaders from among professionals and specialists based on their competence, education, and age. The crucial outcome of these post-Mao reforms, 1979 to the present, is the major focus of this research. This study examines the role of China's top administrative elites during and after the post-Mao administrative reforms, and determines to what extent the changes and their impact on the policy-making may have brought about better economic policies and development. China's social and political conditions and leadership changes before, during, and after the reform are provided as background information for the analysis of policy making in China. This is followed by an analysis of various contemporary theories of bureaucracy and technocracy in general, and the Weberian Legal-Rational model of modern bureaucracy in particular. Qualitative and quantitative methods coupled with surveys, interviews, biographical and documentary-historical methods, and other primary and secondary data are combined in this empirical study. The primary data on biographical information of administrative elites were drawn from the collected results of questionnaires and interviews with elite members of State Council ministries and commissions, provincial and municipal governments. The secondary data were used to conduct a biographical study of the Maoist and post-Mao top administrative elites--all premiers, vice-premiers, State Council ministers, and all provincial governors and municipal mayors from the founding of the PRC in 1949 up until 1993. Through these analyses, the study found that post-Mao administrative reform has indeed brought about changes in the composition of administrative elites. These post-Mao administrative elites are more professionally competent, better educated, more efficient, and younger. Their economic policies have stimulated more extensive and sustained economic development.

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Since 1979, China embarked on an economic reform to modernize the country. The reform was so successful that China was able to grow by an impressive rate of 9 percent per anum between 1979 and 1997. The rapid development of the economy leads to a drastic increase in demand for energy. Since China has the largest population in the world, its energy demand is nothing but huge. Each year, for example, China needs to install as much as 10,000 MW of new electricity generation capacity, which equals the curent capacity of Netherlands. This increase in demand for energy, which is likely to continue, wil have implications for global energy markets, the world price of energy and for the global environment as emissions of greenhouse gases grow rapidly. Against this background, there is an urgent need for the country to better manage the energy sector so that the market can function in an orderly manner. To tackle this issue, I single out three important energy problems to study. First, I wil examine the current situation of the energy imbalance in China. Second, I wil forecast how rapid the energy demand wil grow in future so that the deficit between the demand and domestic supply can be identified. Lastly, I wil discuss some methods that can be used to manage the demand. My finding shows that energy-capital and energy-material inputs are complementary, whereas the relationship of energy and labour is insignificant. In addition, the simulation exercises also reveals that a high energy pricing policy might not be effective in mitigating the demand and in encouraging firms to employ labour intensive techniques. Also, rising energy prices may bring spiral inflation and deterioration in the balance of payments and foreign resources. Therefore, government should act cautiously when increasing energy prices.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The research assignment examines pertinent factors affecting the political, economic and social landscape of the development of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Domestic conditions within the PRC are influencing its foreign policy behaviour in the international arena. The PRC's internal environment will thus determine the extent of its external presence. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die werkstuk bestudeer die relevante faktore wat die politieke, ekonomiese en sosiale landskap ten opsigte van die Republiek van China (PRC) se holistiese ontwikkeling beïnvloed. Omstandighede binne die Republiek beïnvloed die land se buitelandse beleidsgedrag in die internasionale arena. Dit sal dus regverdig wees om te sê dat binnelandse faktore 'n beslissende rol speel ten opsigte van hoe die land homself binne die globale arena hanteer.

China's policy toward the Korean peninsula has shifted from a one-Korea policy to a de facto two-Korea policy. Beijing's constant policy is recognition of Pyongyang as the sole legitimate regime on the peninsula. What Beijing has changed is to acknowledge the existence of the Seoul regime and to inaugurate Sino-South Korean unofficial ties. The main thrust of this research is to examine China's relations with South Korea and North Korea during the period between 1984 and 1989 and to identify the national interests which made Beijing leaders shift their Korea policy. The hypothesis of this study is: China's economic priority is the determining factor and changes in the international environment in East Asia are a contributing factor which made China incrementally shift policy toward the Korean peninsula. The decision to adopt the policy of "revitalizing the economy internally and implementing the open door policy externally" in the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Chinese Communist Party Central Committee in 1978 resulted in revolutionary changes in Chinese foreign policy. These changes resulted from new foreign policy orientations, namely, pragmatism, the growing magnitude of economic elements, open door policy, and entente diplomacy. These new orientations were able to be applied to the Korean case when changes in the Northeast Asian international milieu provided chances in the early 1980s. These changes were the growing positive Sino-Soviet relations, the emergence of South Korea as an economic power, the improvement of Soviet-North Korean relations, and the failure of North Korean diplomacy. Through empirical studies of Chinese foreign behavior and official media, the hypothesis is proven valid. In the early 1980s, China evidently changed its Korean policy priority from strategic interests to political interests with a desire for a peaceful international environment. The growing unofficial Beijing-Seoul contacts show that China desires to pursue its economic interests in South Korea but under the premise of not jeopardizing its relations with North Korea. This line will not change until North Korea is willing to accept cross-recognition.

This thesis examines China's state-owned enterprise reform and financial reform in the last two decades. I characterize the progress of China's state-owned enterprises reform in two areas: privatization of small SOEs and mass layoffs. I argue that privatization rests on the political economy of China. I also discuss the evolution of the financial system and come up with some strategies of financial liberalization in China. Result from this study suggests that if the necessary reforms of the financial sector and state enterprises are effectively carried out, inevitably this will lead to a significantly slower rate of growth for a period of time. However, these reforms will provide the basis for a period of sustained growth in the long run.

University of Macau / Faculty of Business Administration / Department of Finance and Business Economics

University of Macau / Faculty of Business Administration / Department of Finance and Business Economics