The start of the trade war between the United States and China in 2018 has changed the stage of international relations. Growing tariffs by both the American and Chinese governments has threatened the stability of international trade and multilateral cooperation. Governments have framed trade deficits between United States and China as cause of this trade war. Could growing trade deficits be the only explanation for rising tensions in trade between the United States and China? This study aims to research the causes of the trade war between the United States and China on other grounds than just growing trade deficits. As two major world economies, the trade war between the United States and China has vast complications for the global economy. Growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China could spark another cold war for the world as this forces other countries to choose between two spheres of global economic power. Tensions such as trade wars are prone to escalation if the future trade outlook between the United States and China becomes dark. This study gives a deeper insight into the bilateral trade relations between the United States and China and the implications of this relationship for the global economy.

During World War II, the United States had worked in a multilateral fashion with Great Britain and the Soviet Union to form the victorious "Big Three." The countries were optimistic that the peace they had achieved would be sustainable. However, after the Cold War began, the United States backed away from opportunities to work multilaterally; instead, working unilaterally to spread democracy and other principles around the globe. On many occasions, the United States has chosen to take action alone, leaving it isolated from other countries. With the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the bipolar system, the United States has sought superpower status and has sought to become a global hegemon on many fronts. Issues such as ideology and human rights have created tension in U.S. bilateral relations, notably with Russia, China, and France. While headway has been made to reduce tension since the Cold War, other issues have prevented the complete alleviation of tension in U.S. foreign relations with the three countries. The United States' pursuit of hegemonic status employing a unilateral approach and isolationist strategy has resulted in much of the tension seen today. While there are many examples, the most prominent example is that of the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. This and several other issues are addressed in the evolution of U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War with Russia, China, and France.

Previous research has shown that Taiwan's military spending is affected either by China's military buildup or the US's military pipeline. This study investigates whether it is also true an ongoing US-China relationship has dynamic effects. Three major findings are obtained from the statistical analyses. First and foremost, the level of US-China conflict has a contemporaneous positive effect on Taiwan's military spending. Second, the analyses also indicate that the volatility of US-China relations has negative effects on Taiwan's military spending. This finding suggests that instability in US-China relations will prompt Taiwan to decrease its military spending due to a higher amount of perceived security on the one hand, and Taiwan wants to avoid further provoking China on the other. Third, analyses indicate that an error correction model fares better than a simple budgetary incremental model in explaining the re-equilibrating effects of GNP growth on Taiwan's military spending. Overall, the results demonstrate the interplay of domestic and international constraints and may help to predict what will be the expected military spending when Taiwan's economy changes. I suggest that Taiwan's military spending is likely to be influenced by US-China relations as well as by foreign investment and domestic economic constraints as long as the United States policy toward the Taiwan problem remains unchanged.

In my thesis, I analyze the foreign policy of George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama in 1989-2010. Upon comparing their China policies, I concluded that the approach of the United States to China is inconsistent, mainly due to the changing patterns of power, conflicting value systems and the growing importance of commercial interests in the relationship.

本論文探討的「對外經濟戰略」是政府在國家發展層次、以國家發展作為全盤考量的對外政策準則，是從對外交涉層面的經濟取向，對其政策形成之分析與研究。對外經濟戰略作為國家對外事務交涉的準則，影響國家的外交與對外經貿發展，因此從對外經濟戰略的研究，將有助於理解國家外交的思維，並可成為預測國家對外經貿合作方向的參考。俄羅斯在普欽總統強勢作為的領導之下，使得其國家從經濟蕭條、政局不穩定與外交發展受侷限等問題中，得以蛻變成為重新崛起的大國。而中國是俄羅斯重要的鄰國之一，從經濟面向的分析觀察，中國更是國際上重要的新興市場，從政治面向觀察，中國亦是國際上逐漸擴展影響力的大國；因此筆者研究俄羅斯的對外經濟戰略，是以普欽總統時期作為分析的時間範疇，而以中國作為分析的目標國。 俄羅斯對於與中國進行的政經合作，是以其國家利益為考量，而其國家利益是以國內經濟發展為原則，並擴展國家在亞太地區的勢力，以實現普欽的東西方平衡外交策略；而俄羅斯對中國的經貿發展事務上，是有著多重因素考量，筆者從俄羅斯亞太政策、全球化影響、俄羅斯能源優勢與俄羅斯遠東地區發展等戰略思維，歸納成系統性政策思維的整理與論述，並將以上綜合陳述，作為解讀俄羅斯對中國的經濟戰略。 / In this thesis, the author discuses the “foreign economic strategy”, which tells the principles of foreign strategy that a government takes into consideration in state development. It focuses on the aspect of economy in diplomatic level, analyzing how the policy is formed. Being the principle of international affairs, foreign economic strategy effects the development of diplomacy and international business. Thus, this study helps to comprehend the context of state diplomacy and anticipates the way of international trade. Under the strong leadership of President Putin, Russia, originally a hybrid of economic depression, political unrest and diplomatic plight, turns into a great power. China, an important neighbor of Russia, is not only a rising market in international business, but a great power in international politics; thus this thesis researches Russia’s economic strategy, and focus on China’s aspect during Putin’s era. Russia, takes its national interests into consideration, cooperate with China in economic and political affairs. Its national interests mainly focus on economic development and enlargement of its influence in Asia-Pacific region, realizing Putin’s diplomatic strategy to balance the east and west. Therefore, there are multiple factors in Russo-China international trade. The author analyzes the Russia’s Asia-Pacific strategy, the effect of globalization, Russia’s energy superiority and Russia’s Far-eastern development strategy, summarizing Russia’s economic strategy. Therefore, this study shows Russia’s strategic thought toward China in international economic and political affairs.

University of Macau / Faculty of Law

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Communication

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

In the emerging knowledge economy, scientific pursuit in the form of international collaboration has escalated. Studies consistently report that such collaboration, which has been intensifying in the last several decades, is common among not only advanced economies but also in emerging scientific nations such as China, India, and Brazil. The emergence of a "new invisible college" of international knowledge exchange has aroused interest from social scientists and captured the attention of policymakers. Indeed, recognizing its importance as a means of monitoring and exploiting other countries' R&D investment, more and more countries champion and participate in international joint research. International collaboration between the United States (US) and China is particularly interesting. The US has been and will continue to be the leader in scientific development for the foreseeable future. However, as a rising scientific power, China is changing the global landscape of ideas and innovation along with other emerging countries. The growing significance of the US-China relationship and worldwide interest in China's development suggest that the characteristics of the scientific collaboration of these two countries and its associated knowledge dissemination across national borders are timely topics to study. Surprisingly, few studies have examined research collaboration between a scientific superpower and an emerging scientific power, particularly in the context of emerging state-of-the-art technology. This dissertation seeks to address this research gap by examining patterns of collaboration in the US-China scientific community and its impact on China's rapid knowledge accumulation in nanotechnology, if any, through Chinese knowledge moderators (CKMs)--Chinese scholars who bridge two otherwise distant scientific communities through intensive collaboration with both sides. The research focuses on the following three aspects: firstly, built upon the notions of the boundary spanner and the structural hole, the study develops the concept of Chinese knowledge moderators and uses it as an instrument to examine the relationship between international collaboration and knowledge spillover across national boundaries. Secondly, it operationalizes and tests the impact of US-China collaboration using multiple methods. In addition to citation-based indicators, based on the turnover of nanotechnology keywords, the study investigates the impact of collaborating with US scholars on CKMs' research trajectory and the international knowledge spillover facilitated by CKMs. Thirdly, utilizing a longitudinal publication dataset of 77 CKMs and their CV data, this study is able to quantify the dynamic impact of US collaboration on the quality of CKMs' research over time. The combination of bibliometric analyses, empirical testing, and case studies allows for the development of a comprehensive blueprint of US-China scientific collaboration in the field of nanotechnology. This research yields several significant findings. First, the evolution of US-China collaboration in nanotechnology has gone beyond quantitative growth, as qualitative and structural changes have begun to take place. Secondly, CKMs play a critical role in fostering China's nanotechnology development, manifested in both knowledge creation and knowledge diffusion. The present study also reveals that US-China collaboration has a diminishing effect over time on the research quality of CKMs at level of individual papers, but as pertaining to entire journals. Thirdly, the case studies on the evolution of research streams suggest that US-China collaboration influences the research trajectory of CKMs, who, as the conduits of knowledge, further disseminate it within the national boundaries of China. The research also has policy implications for both sides. Chinese policy makers need to strengthen the mechanisms that encourage CKMs collaborating with the US, and, in order to amplify international knowledge spillover, these mechanisms should further encourage more interactions between CKMs and their Chinese domestic colleagues. From the US American perspective, given China's scientific emergence in nanotechnology, the US should direct its efforts to ensuring its ample access to exploiting the heavy R&D investment of this emerging scientific powerhouse by collaborating with top Chinese scientists.

冷戰結束以來，兩極體系的瓦解使得東亞地區發生權力變化，為爭奪區域領導權，各國無不摩拳擦掌，其中尤以日本與中國兩國的競爭最為白熱化，兩國關係的發展也因而受到注目。日中兩國關係在1990年代歷經了初期的友好、中期的惡化與末期的低潮之後，進入二十一世紀，兩國關係已然走到關鍵的十字路口。2001年4月小泉純一郎以改革形象，挾前所未見的高人氣入主首相官邸，一上任即面臨受歷史教科書、李登輝訪日以及農產品貿易糾紛而陷入緊張的日中關係，再加上小泉首相面臨的是近兩百年來未見的崛起的中國，如何處理日中關係成為其任內的一大考驗。更重要的是，日中這東亞兩大國的互動，是合作抑或競爭，是否能破除「一山不容二虎」的迷思，都將大大影響東亞地區的未來，對身處東亞地區且正好鄰近此兩大國的我國來說，亦將是非常值得觀察的發展。 / 本文一開始首先簡單介紹從冷戰結束後到小泉首相上任之前，日中關係的大致發展，作為背景說明，其次則闡明本論文的研究動機與目的、研究範圍與限制、文獻回顧以及論文架構安排。第二章則介紹小泉時期的日本外交政策，提出五組決策者信念體系與其實際決策間的關聯因素作為分析架構，首先介紹小泉首相是如何看待現今的國際與區域情勢，以及因此衍生出來小泉的對外政策特徵，與傳統日本對外政策有何異同。第三章介紹自2001年4月小泉首相上台後日中關係的發展情況，以時間發展先後為本章的撰寫主軸，將小泉首相在位期間所發生對日本外交政策與日中關係有重大影響的四項重大國際事件（2001年9月的911事件、2002年10月的第二次北韓核武危機、2003年3月的伊拉克戰爭以及2005年12月的東亞高峰會）作為分斷點，並介紹此四項重大國際事件對日本外交政策的影響，以及該項日本外交政策的改變對於日中關係的影響。第四章分析小泉時期影響日中關係變化的發展因素，將小泉時期影響日中關係發展的重要正面因素分為經貿投資、在區域及國際性問題的合作以及政府開發援助（Official Development Assistance, ODA）三項。第五章分析小泉時期影響日中關係變化的衝突因素，將小泉時期影響日中關係發展的重要負面因素分為歷史與民族主義、領土、台灣、安全以及經濟與能源等五項。最後為結論，綜合以上各章節，歸納出小泉時期整體日中關係的情況與小泉上台對日中關係的影響及其原因，並以此為基礎，嘗試推測在「小泉後」的新政府時期，日中關係可能的發展走勢與變化。 / The purpose of this study was to explore the relations between two East Asian great powers, Japan and China, during Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro’s tenure. After the Cold War, the two powers have had encountered a period of changing relationship in the 1990s – from honeymoon to a series of quarrels. Under the situation of the power vacuum and power shift happened in the East Asian region, Japan and China have clashed fiercely in the process of competing for regional leadership. Now at the beginning of the 21th Century, Japan-China relations are at a crossroad, and here comes Koizumi who just got the power to lead Japan toward the new century. The atmosphere between Japan and China in the Koizumi era may have a great effect not only on the future of Japan-China relations but also on the future of the whole region, even the whole world. As a member of the East Asian region, there should be great interests for us in studying this theme, and getting to know how to deal with these two great powers on the basis of our own national interests. / The first part of this thesis composes research motives, purposes, scopes, limits, methods and literature review, and also provides the background of Japan-China relations in the 1990s. Chapter two focuses on Japan’s Foreign Policy under the Koizumi government, and analyzes the Prime Minister’s viewpoint on the nature of today’s international system and understands his foreign policy and China policy. Chapter three introduces the details between Japan and China interactions during the tenure of Koizumi. While Chapter four and five analyzes respectively the factors which foster or impede the development of Japan-China relations. In the last chapter, I reach the conclusion and find out the fundamental reason behind the deterioration of Japan-China relations in the Koizumi era, and then try further to predict the possible future development of Japan-China relations under the new Abe government.