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This study examines the long-term record of lower stratospheric water vapor focusing on the 20-year data record from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II). The SAGE II zonal monthly mean water vapor data was enhanced to include the aerosol heavy late 1980s through the use of aerosol extinction filtering of the data. Comparisons between the SAGE II lower stratospheric water vapor and the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are performed. This study further focuses on the minimum lower stratospheric water vapor (i.e., hygropause) and on the dehydration seen in the hygropause with examination of the transport barrier at both the tropical tropopause and the tropopause folding region between the tropics and extra-tropics that would account for this decadal variation. The effects of aerosol contamination on the SAGE II water vapor retrievals from four volcanic eruptions from 1984 to 1992 were examined, leading to a four level filtering of the SAGE II water vapor data to allow retention of good data from early in the data record. With the improved filtered water vapor data, monthly and seasonal time series analyses show a significant decadal variation in the lower stratosphere for all months where the satellite coverage provided data from the late 1980s to the early 2000s. This decadal variation documents a decrease in the water vapor from below approximately 25 km to below the tropopause with this decrease seen in the hygropause from the tropics to the poles. Analysis of the hygropause for all months provided a statistically significant consistent neutral or decreasing value in the long-term water vapor minimum. March was shown to be the seasonal minimum in the hygropause over this 20-year low aerosol record, followed by a discontinuity in the minimum abundance after 2000. Three transport pathways for transport of water vapor from the moist troposphere to the lower stratosphere include the tropical tropopause, isentropic transport at the sub-tropical jet locations, and meridional transport from the tropics to the midlatitudes above the hygropause. The tropical tropopause temperatures were examined using the new Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data set. Analysis showed a significant decrease in the tropical and sub-tropical tropopause temperatures over the 20-year timeframe for the DJF season preceding the March minimum. The lower temperatures would provide a colder "cold trap" at the tropopause, further "freeze drying" the air seasonally transported from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere, providing the long-term dehydration in the hygropause and lower stratosphere. The Ertel's Potential Vorticity (EPV or PV) was examined as a proxy for the sub-tropical jet movement towards the poles over this long-term record. Changes in this pathway location may affect the efficiency of isentropic transport of moist tropospheric air into the lower stratosphere at these higher latitudes. Analysis using the MERRA zonal EPV and maximum zonal Uwind data showed a statistically significant shift in the locations of the contours towards the SH poles over this 20-year timeframe for the DJF, DJFM seasons and the month of December. The meridional winds above the tropopause show an increase over the 20-year record covered by SAGE II water vapor data. These increasing winds are consistent with the increase in the Brewer-Dobson circulation shown in other studies. The colder tropopause temperatures along with the increasing Brewer-Dobson circulation just above the tropopause, are the likely cause for the decreasing water vapor trend as seen in the SAGE II March hygropause over the 20-years from 1986-2005.

Accurate forecasts of future regional temperature and rainfall patterns in many regions largely depend on characterizing anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate. However, strong interannual to decadal-scale tropical Pacific climate variability, combined with sparse spatial and temporal coverage of instrumental climate datasets in this region, have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the tropical Pacific. In this dissertation, I present sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records that span over the 20th century using living corals from several islands in the central tropical Pacific. I reconstruct the SST proxy records via coral Sr/Ca, that are combined with coral oxygen isotopic (d18O) records to quantify changes in seawater d18O (hereafter d18Osw) as a proxy for salinity. Chapter 2 investigates the spatial and temporal character of SST and d18Osw-based salinity trends in the central tropical Pacific from 1972-1998, as revealed by corals from Palmyra (6ºN, 162ºW), Fanning (4ºN, 159ºW) and Christmas (2ºN, 157ºW) Islands. The late 20th century SST proxy records exhibit warming trends that are larger towards the equator, in line with a weakening of equatorial Pacific upwelling over this period. Freshening trends revealed by the salinity proxy records are larger at those sites most affected by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), suggesting a strengthening and/or an equatorward shift of the ITCZ. Taken together, the late 20th century SST and salinity proxy records document warming and freshening trends that are consistent with a trend towards a weakened tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient under continued anthropogenic forcing. Chapter 3 characterizes the signatures of natural and anthropogenic variability in central tropical Pacific SST and d18Osw-based salinity over the course of 20th century using century-long coral proxy records from Palmyra. On interannual timescales, the SST proxy record from Palmyra tracks El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The salinity proxy record tracks eastern Pacific-centered ENSO events but is poorly correlated to central Pacific-centered ENSO events - the result of profound differences in precipitation and ocean advection that occur during the two types of ENSO. On decadal timescales, the coral SST proxy record is significantly correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), suggesting that strong dynamical links exist between the central tropical Pacific and the North Pacific. The salinity proxy record is significantly correlated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but poorly correlated to the NPGO, suggesting that, as was the case with ENSO, these two modes of Pacific decadal climate variability have unique impacts on equatorial precipitation and ocean advection. However, the most striking feature of the salinity proxy record is a prominent late 20th century freshening trend that is likely related to anthropogenic climate change. Taken together, the coral data provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends, and when used in combination with model simulations of 21st century climate, can be used to improve projections of regional climate in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.

The spatial and temporal responses of natural landscape ecosystems in the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) to changes in rainfall conditions over the last two decades of the 20th century have not been fully examined. The NEB ecosystems are highly dynamic landscape responding to weather conditions, of which rainfall is the most important variable. The research described in this dissertation was conducted to test whether or not the impact of rainfall fluctuations on the vegetation dynamics can be spatially and temporally differentiated within the NEB ecosystems. This was achieved in two phases: In phase one, the spatial and temporal consistency of the response of monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data records to monthly rain gauge data records for the period 1982-1993 was assessed. This assessment of the spatial and temporal responses of the NDVI time series data to rainfall time series data tested the hypotheses that responses of NEB ecosystems to rainfall conditions can occur with different time lags and can be spatially heterogeneous. This was achieved by using correlation coefficients with different time lags and by applying factor analysis through the use of Varimax rotation. In phase two, the spatial and temporal variability of the NDVI responses to NEB land surface conditions for the period 1982-2001 was quantified. This quantification of temporal and spatial variability in NDVI across the NEB ecosystems tested the hypothesis that responses of NDVI variability to land surface conditions of the NEB can be temporally and spatially heterogeneous by combining statistical parameters of monthly series of NDVI (minimum, mean, maximum, anomalies and coefficient of variation) and by using annual NDVI images. The results of phase one of this research showed that the direct response (i.e., no lagged response) of the NEB ecosystems to rainfall was associated with different land cover types. A strong positive relation was found in rainfall-limited NEB ecosystems that are associated with Caatinga biome. Particularly, the disturbance of the landscape reduced the significance of the relationship. Over the Cerrado biome and Atlantic rain forest (evergreen tropical forest), significant negative relations between NDVI and rainfall were found where there are no moisture availability constraints. However, the NDVI responses of the NEB ecosystems to changing rainfall conditions were found to be strongly positive for the correlation of NDVI with rainfall in the concurrent plus one previous month. This was demonstrated for most of the NEB ecosystems, except for the southeastern NEB that is formed by the Atlantic rain forest that, in certain areas, has been converted to cropland. In general, there is a good spatial agreement between the NEB ecosystems and the patterns of NDVI variability on both the annual basis and the interannual basis as the temporal responses of the NEB ecosystems are affected by both positive and negative correlations with rainfall. In phase two, the results show clear indications that, for the inter-annual NDVI variability in the interval between 20% and 45% variability a positive response of ND VI to changes in rainfall exist for most of NEB ecosystems where main annual rainfall amounts vary from 300 to 750 mm. A strong decrease of response was found in the monthly NDVI anomalies trend over the period of September 1988 to August 1997. The decrease might be interpreted as a response of NEB ecosystems caused by the impact of enhanced aridity over the 1990s. Overall, in the first phase, it was observed that responses of different land cover types of the NEB to rainfall conditions appeared to occur with different time lags and appeared to be spatially heterogeneous. In the second phase, the inter-annual NDVI variability in the NEB ecosystems to land surface variations appeared to be temporally and spatially heterogeneous. These results suggest that vegetation responses over the NEB ecosystems to changing rainfall conditions, as measured by changes in NDVI to rainfall fluctuations, may have a potential for predicting the impact of rainfall conditions on the NEB landscape dynamics.

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to create projections of possible future climate characteristics under global climate change scenarios. Future local and regional precipitation scenarios can be developed by downscaling synoptic CGM data. Daily 500-mb geopotential heights from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis's CGCM2 are used to represent future (2020-2050) synoptics and are compared to daily historical (1960-1990) 500-mb geopotential height reanalysis data. The comparisons are made based on manually classified synoptic patterns identified by Changnon et al. (1993.Mon. Weather Rev. 121:633-647). Multiple linear regression models are used to link the historical synoptic pattern frequencies and precipitation amounts for 372 weather stations across western North America,. The station-specific models are then used to forecast future precipitation amounts per weather station based on synoptic pattern frequencies forecast by the CGCM2 climate change forcing scenario. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation are explored to determine monthly, seasonal and annual trends in climate change impacts on precipitation in western North America. The resulting precipitation scenarios demonstrate a decrease in precipitation from 10 to 30% on an annual basis for much of the south and western regions of the study area. Seasonal forecasts show variations of the same regions with decreases in precipitation and select regions with increases in future precipitation. A major advancement of this analysis was the application of synoptic pattern downscaling to summer precipitation scenarios for western North America. / ix, 209 leaves : col. maps ; 29 cm.

Juniper trees (Juniperus osteosperma, J. monosperma, J. deppeana and J. scopulorum) grow under widely varying climatic and edaphic conditions throughout the American southwest. This study is chiefly concerned with a test of the climatic response in the partitioning of the stable isotopes of carbon in such trees. The relationships developed here, for example, might be used to extract paleoclimatic information from ancient juniper samples preserved in cave middens. In order to test for a climatic response in the leaf cellulose δ¹³C values, leaves from a total of 29 trees were sampled in the immediate vicinity of 9 meteorological stations across the state of Arizona. Care was taken to insure that 22 of the trees experienced only the temperature and precipitation values reflected by their site meteorological stations. As a cross-check, 7 trees exposed to temperature and/or precipitation levels clearly deviant from their site averages were also sampled. In general, each tree was sampled at four places, approximately 2 m above the ground. All leaf samples were reduced to cellulose (holocellulose) before combustion and analysis for their δ¹³C value. The δ¹³C value for each site was derived from an average of 2 to 4 trees per site, the value of each tree being the average of its individual samples. The one sigma 13C variation found between trees at any given site is ±0.38‰; within a single tree, ±0.36‰; and for repeat combustions, ±0.20‰. The δ¹³C values of the juniper sites were regressed against the temperature and precipitation of the individual months and running averages of months across the year using polynomial, multiple regression analysis. Temperature and precipitation were entered as separate variables in a general multiple regression model and also as a combined, single variable (T /P) in a more specific approach. The pattern formed by the multiple correlation coefficients, when plotted by months across the year, closely follows the seasonal variations in photosynthetic activity. Cellulose δ¹³C values have minimum correlation with temperature and precipitation (considered jointly) during summer months and maximum correlation during spring months. For an individual month, the temperature and precipitation (jointly) of April correlated at the highest level with a multiple adj. R = 0.994 and an F = 166; for a maximum seasonal response, March-May reached a multiple adj. R = 0.985, F = 66. The results using the combined, single variable (T /P) were nearly equivalent for the same months: April's adj. R = 0.957, F = 45; March-May's adj. R = 0.985 with an F = 132. The ability of T and P as independent predictors is considerably less than their ability in combination; e.g., 13C g(T) for March-May has an adj. R = 0.80 and 6 13C = h(P) has an adj. R = -0.67 compared to their in- concert adj. R value of 0.985. The results of this study, therefore, strongly support a high degree of climatic sensitivity in the partitioning of the stable isotopes of carbon in juniper leaf cellulose: the correlation coefficients and their F statistics are sufficiently high to consider temperature and precipitation (acting jointly) as accurate predictors of cellulose δ¹³C values in the system studied.

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in southwestern Alberta were studied to determine the water sources used and the effect of changing soil moisture on tree ecophysiological function. The hydrogen stable isotope ratios of water from local groundwater and precipitation were compared to tree stem water to determine the amount of stem water coming from those two sources. There were no significant differences between species in the portion of summer precipitation taken up. However, Douglas-fir shifted towards using more groundwater as shallow soil moisture declined. In addition, Douglas-fir showed large changes in shoot water potential, but maintained relatively constant rates of oxygen evolution, whereas lodgepole pine exhibited smaller changes in shoot water potential and had severely reduced rates of oxygen evolution during mid-summer drought. Lower leaf-area to sap-wood area and higher leaf δ13C (carbon isotope composition) suggested a less efficient hydraulic system in Douglas-fir compared to lodgepole pine. / x, 91 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm

It has become accepted that long-term global mean temperatures have increased over the twentieth century. However, whether or not climate change can be detected at a local or regional scale is still questionable. The numerous new record highs and lows of temperatures recorded over South Africa for 2003, 2004 and 2005 provide reason to examine whether changes can already be detected in southern Africa's temperature record and modelled hydrological responses. As a preface to a temperature detection study, a literature reVIew on temperature detection studies, methods used and data problems encountered, was undertaken. Simple statistics, linear regression and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were the methods reviewed for detecting change. Southern Africa's temperature record was thereafter examined for changes, and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was applied to time series of annual means of minimum and maximum temperature, summer means of maximum temperature and winter means of minimum temperature. Furthermore, changes in the upper and lower ends of the temperature distribution were examined. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to numbers of days and numbers of 3 consecutive days abovelbelow thresholds of 10th and 90th percentiles of minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as abovelbelow threshold values of minimum (i.e. 0°) and maximum (i.e. 40°C) temperatures. A second analysis, using the split sample technique for the periods 1950 - 1970 vs 1980 - 2000, was performed for annual means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, summer means of daily maximum temperatures, winter means of daily minimum temperatures and coefficients of variability of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Two clear clusters of warming emerged from almost every analysis, viz. a cluster of stations in the Western Cape and a cluster of stations around the midlands ofKwaZulu-Natal, along with a band of stations along the KwaZulu-Natal coast. Another fmding was a less severe frost season over the Free State and Northern Cape. While certain changes are, therefore, evident in temperature parameters, the changes are not uniform across southern Africa. Precipitation and evaporation are the primary drivers of the hydrological cycle, with temperature an important factor in the evaporation process. Thus, with changes in various temperature parameters having been identified over many parts of southern Africa, the question arose whether any changes were evident as yet in hydrological responses. The ACRU model was used to generate daily streamflow values and associated hydrological responses from a baseline land cover, thus eliminating all possible human influences on the catchment and channel. A split-sample analysis of the simulated hydrological responses for the 1950 - 1969 vs 1980 - 1999 periods was undertaken. Trends over time in simulated streamflows were examined for medians, dry and wet years, as well as the range between wet and dry years. The seasonality and concentration of streamflows between the periods 1950 - 1969 and 1980 - 1999 were examined to determine if changes could be identified. Some trends found were marked over large parts of Primary Catchments, and certainly require consideration in future water resources planning. With strong changes over time in simulated hydrological responses already evident in certain Primary Catchments of South Africa using daily rainfall input data from 1950 1999, it, therefore, became necessary to examine the rainfall regimes of the Quaternary Catchments' "driver" rainfall station data in order to determine if these hydrological response changes were supported by changes in rainfall patterns over time. A splitsample analysis was, therefore, performed on the rainfall input of each Quaternary Catchment. Not only were medians considered, but the higher and lower ends of the rainfall distributions were also analysed, as were the number of rainfall events above pre-defined daily thresholds. The changes evident over time in rainfall patterns over southern Africa were found to vary from relatively unsubstantial increases or decreases to significant increase and decreases. However, the changes in rainfall corresponded with the changes noted in simulated streamflow. From the analyses conducted in this study, it has become clear that South Africa's temperature and rainfall, as well as hydrological responses, have changed over the recent past, particularly in certain identifiable hotspots, viz. the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal where significant increases in temperature variables and changes in rainfall patterns were detected. These detected changes in climate need to be considered in future water resources planning. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)

This research focuses on the estimation of the impacts of climate change on water yield, streamflow extremes, and the streamflow regimes in the Cline River Watershed, and consequently, water availability for hydropower generation in this area. The Cline River Watershed comprises the flow into Lake Abraham, the reservoir for Bighorn Dam, is part of the upper North Saskatchewan River basin (UNSRB). This objective was achieved by parameterizing the ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system. After parameterization was complete, ACRU output was calibrated and verified against available observed data, including temperature, snow water equivalent, glacier mass balance, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data. After ACRU was properly verified, five selected climate change scenarios to estimate impacts of climate change in this area. Overall water yields are projected to increase over time. A large shift in seasonality is likely the biggest impact climate change will have on water resources in the Cline River Watershed. / xii, 126 leaves : ill., maps ; 29 cm