This thesis considers the economics of preferences in two different contexts. First it examines damages from climate change. I argue that our ignorance of the welfare implications of higher levels of warming, as well as scientific uncertainty in precisely what might trigger these scenarios, imply that our tastes and beliefs are incomplete (in the sense of Galaabaatar and Karni, 2013). That is, there are many 'plausible' ways to evaluate a given scenario. In Chapter 1, then, I develop this theory, and use it to formally separate climate impacts into three sorts: those understood well, those understood badly, and those representing the worst possible scenario. I provide a generalisation of the 'dismal theorem' of Weitzman (2009a), and address the question of policy choice: prices versus quantities (cf. Weitzman, 1974). Chapter 2 is an example of the analysis propounded in Chapter 1. I explore the sensitivity of the social cost of carbon to assumed damages from 4C warming, to the assumed extent of CO2 emissions, and to the modelling of the climate and carbon cycles. The analysis shows that differing prior assumptions can alter our evaluation of policy by orders of magnitude. The second part of this thesis regards preferences for indivisible goods. In Chapter 3, which is joint work with Paul Klemperer, I introduce to this field the 'tropical hypersurface', being those prices at which an agent's demand changes. Simple geometric features of this set tell us the precise trade-offs that interest the agent. Thus we develop a new taxonomy of valuations, `demand types'; familiar notions such as substitutes and complements are examples. Finally, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition on these `demand types' for existence of competitive equilibrium, which implies several existing results, as well as new and quite different examples.

Rural communities in Malawi are experiencing adverse climatic hazards which are attributed to climate variability and change. The frequent events being experienced include floods, dry spells and seasonal droughts. Rural livelihoods are severely affected because of their sensitivity to these phenomena. The research has analyzed community-based coping and adaptation strategies for sustainable livelihoods among the rural poor in Kaunda village, T/A Simlemba in Kasungu district, Malawi. The research data was collected from groups of male and female participants which also included a group of traditional leaders living in the area. The study used Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods such as Focus Group Discussions using the associated tools of resource mapping, transect walks, timelines and livelihood ranking to collect the data. The research findings have revealed that the major climate events experienced in Kaunda village are seasonal droughts and dry spells which have significantly impacted agriculture as a major livelihood activity in Malawi. The study has also revealed the community-based coping and adaptation strategies employed by the people. Recommendations made in this study have highlighted the need to support vulnerable rural communities with resilient and secure livelihoods.

Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.

Rapid, human-forced climate change as a result of greenhouse gases is threatening the fabric of human civilisation itself. It is clear that we need to alter our development and poorer countries will need to develop while limiting their emissions, but it is not clear what sustainable development would entail. Climate change policy solutions have pivoted on carbon trading, under the auspices of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), but this too has failed to limit growth in carbon emissions. This report looks at the operations of the CDM in South Africa as a source of climate finance meant to facilitate sustainable development. Though South Africa has emphasised its commitment towards a low-carbon transition, in practice its national planners seek to preserve energy-intensive mineral and industrial sectors. This research draws on both primary and secondary documents as well as interviews with carbon professionals to conclude that CDM projects have played a limited role in South Africa, but has tended to reproduce the existing minerals and energy complex within the country.

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This DPhil thesis discusses how two divergent risk conceptions, a 'social view' and an 'economic view' of risk, are constructed through inter-expert risk communication. Different and sometimes contradictory concepts of risk are mobilised in regulatory practice, but the origins of these divergent risk conceptions are not extensively studied. This thesis seeks to unpack this divergence. Empirically, I analyse risk communication among experts in the European Union (EU) during the creation of two risk regulation standards. The two case studies, one related to the development of the two-degree target of EU climate policies (the climate case) and the other about the negotiation of the excessive deficit criteria of the Maastricht Treaty (the euro case), can shed light on the relations between risk conceptions and inter-expert risk communication. I argue that through risk communication, an initial 'view' of risk can be entrenched and developed into a paradigmatic 'risk conception'. My analysis uses historical and sociological institutionalism, by focusing on path dependence of risk communication and social construction risk conceptions among EU experts. Through the two case studies, I identify four analytical dimensions of inter-expert risk communication: networks (the institutional setting and relationships between different experts), cultures (the mentalities of experts in relation to discussing risks), dynamics (the actual processes of transmitting and receiving risk messages) and strategies (the rationales supporting the decisions of risk regulation standards). My thematic analysis reveals four key distinct 'features' of social/economic views of risk: expertise (the types of knowledge mobilised), normality (characterising risk as either 'special' or 'routine'), probability (considering risk as either uncertain or calculable) and impact (seeing risk as either negative or positive). I argue that these four features can help explain the construction of risk conceptions, and more broadly, provide an analytical framework for studying how views of risk evolve and interact over time.

Climate change is a human development challenge. Its negative impacts have the potential to reverse the human development gains made in Africa. South Africa, just like many other countries in the Global South, is being negatively affected by climate change. The country`s economy is largely dependent on agriculture, extractive industries and manufacturing, all of which are vulnerable to climate change in different ways. This vulnerability means different public and private stakeholders must institute sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation measures so as to ameliorate climate change impacts. Gradually transforming to an environmentally friendly ‘green economy’ and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are some of South Africa’s climate change mitigation priorities. Just like the public sector, the private sector has a major role to play in this transition to a low carbon economy through minimising its carbon emissions in their operations. Against this background, this qualitative research examines the role played by four major supermarkets (Shoprite, Spar, Pick n Pay and Woolworths), in climate change mitigation and resilience building. It does so through an appraisal of their mitigation and resilience programs. The four supermarkets were purposively selected in East London, Eastern Cape. Data collection combined heavy reliance on desktop discourse analysis with field interviews in the form of purposively sampled key informant interviews. The results show that the four major supermarkets are implementing a variety of climate change mitigation and resilience strategies. These include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, prioritisation of renewable energy, recycling and environmentally friendly packaging, promotion of sustainable ways of farming and improved fuel efficiency in their transport systems. In terms of policy improvement, the study recommends that there is need for supermarkets to learn from each other’s’ climate change mitigation initiatives so as to advance South Africa’s ‘green economy’ agenda.

Government policy development and implementation is often designed to address different sectors of society in isolation, so social, economic and environmental issues are considered as being distinct from one other. Recently it has been acknowledged that 'working in silos' is not conducive for good governance and so efforts have been made for better co-ordination between different government departments and different spheres of government. Our research findings show the knock on effects of one problem into other areas of people's lives, highlighting why it is vital for policies and programmes to be far better co-ordinated. The different challenges and stresses that people face in their lives interact with one another in complex ways, undermining their capacity to cope with and adapt to future changes, such as those expected under climate change.

Two of the main challenges facing communities and governments in developing countries are the reduction of risks of hydro-meteorological hazards and adaptation to climate change. As climate variability and change impacts are becoming more visible in the form of disasters, and are negatively affecting climate sensitive livelihoods and eroding communities' ability to fully recover, leading to increased vulnerability to subsequent climate risks. The unpredictability of current weather systems, therefore, makes it very difficult for poor governments and households to deal with adverse impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the fragmented approach to DRR and CCA with regards to practice, policy and organisational frameworks for dealing with climate risks is resulting in coordination challenges for the government departments. This study aimed to explore how local households and communities perceive and are experiencing and coping with climate change and drought, and what that means for integrating hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The study was carried out in Chirumhanzu district and the methods used for data collection included: 217 household surveys; six focus group discussions; participatory learning actions methods; key informant's interviews and document review. The majority of households owned low value material assets and had low levels of livelihood capitals and this exposed them to the impacts of climate variability and successive droughts. This low adaptive capacity largely affected their ability to engage effective drought risk reduction and adaptation strategies for their livelihood activities in small-scale farming and livestock rearing. Vulnerability to climate risks was exacerbated by seasonal weather forecasts, which were deemed by some households to be unreliable, inaccurate and not easily understood, while others used of indigenous knowledge. Successive droughts affected households' access to food and cash income for other household demands. Other non-climatic factors that contributed to adverse drought impacts at the household level were an emphasis on reactive humanitarian aid approach and the poor economy in Zimbabwe. Additionally, the policy framework for dealing with climate change and drought hazards is fragmented and weak; and is housed in different government departments making it difficult to coordinate and implement. To improve climate risk management, there is need for the government to appreciate that drought risk reduction and climate change adaptation are all about reducing vulnerability. Understanding this, might assist in improving government focus on addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability and mainstreaming DRR and CCA into development processes through addressing specific and generic adaptive capacities. The thesis argues that as long as rural households are involved in climate sensitive livelihood activities and not getting meaningful intervention to diversity and/or better intensify their livelihood activities, they will continue to be vulnerable to successive climate risks. This fragmented approach to dealing with climate risks, is not yielding any successful results with regards to building resilience, risk reduction or adaptation of rural households.

This study used county-level yields and panel data (1950-2006) to explain the Impact of climate change and weather variability on North Dakota agriculture by estimating the effect of variation in temperature and precipitation on the yields of four major crops: com, durum, soybeans and wheat. In addition to yields, the study examined Impacts of climate change on crop gross revenues per acre for all 53 counties in North Dakota. An econometric model was developed to infer statistical relationships between weather variability and crop yields. Fixed and random effects models were employed to estimate the impacts of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on crop yields. The Hausman test statistics was applied to test the preferred panel estimation approach: fixed versus random effects. Using mean values of precipitation and degree days for all counties, we calculated percentage changes in estimated crop yields for six climate change scenarios. The historical price data for the four crops (com, soybeans, spring wheat and durum) were used to generate per acre gross returns under the six weather-change scenarios in order to provide preliminary evidence about the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on farmer returns for the four crops.