Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Experimental research in psychology and economics indicates that depression causes heightened risk aversion. Previous research has documented robust links between seasonal variation in length of day, seasonal depression (known as seasonal affective disorder, or SAD), risk aversion and stock market returns. One such study provides international evidence that stock market returns vary seasonally with the length of the day, a result called the SAD effect. Stock returns are shown to be significantly related to the amount of daylight throughout the autumn and winter. Another study examines the SAD effect in the context of an equilibrium asset pricing model to determine whether the seasonality can be explained using a conditional version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows the price of risk to vary over time. Given the above as the base departure point, this report analyses the SAD effect in the context of the South African capital market, where, firstly, the variation in length of day during the year is not so severe compared with other countries like Sweden and the UK and, secondly, a more recent dataset includes the effects of integrated markets and globalisation, that possibly resulted in a shift of seasonal behaviour in the market. It quantifies the SAD effect in general, across industry sectors, over time periods and confirms that a conditional CAPM holds in explaining the seasonality due to SAD. The results differ substantially from those of prior studies. The expected signs of the SAD and Aut coefficients are reversed. Closer analysis shows that seasonality in stock returns has undergone a shift compared to seasonality in an older dataset. A prior finding that effects, such as the SAD, are better explained using excess returns than using raw total returns of the market, is reinforced. The analysis of SAD over time sheds some light on the unexpected outcome of the SAD and Aut coefficients by providing evidence that the validity of regression models deteriorated over time and, more conclusively, that in two consecutive periods, the SAD and Aut coefficients decreased in absolute value. It also found that the coefficients are linearly related to excess returns during the latter period only. The conditional CAPM provides evidence that the effect of SAD is captured in the time variation in the price of risk. The factor of reducing the remainder of SAD in error terms is, however, remarkably smaller. The implication is that market risk already accounts for the SAD effect, but only to a degree, and that the remaining contribution of the SAD effect contained in varying the price of risk is substantially less significant. This finding coupled with the contradictory results in the signs of SAD and Aut coefficients renders evidence of SAD in the South African market rather inconclusive. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Navorsing in die gebied waar sielkunde en ekonomie oorvleuel, toon dat depressie ‘n verlaagde risiko-aptyt meebring. Meer spesifiek, vorige navorsing dokumenteer dat robuuste skakels tussen seisoenale lengtes van dae, seisoenale depressie (beter bekend as winter depressie), risiko-aptyt en opbrengste op die andelebeurs bestaan. Een van hierdie studies, wat uitgevooer was op ’n aantal hoof internasionale markte, bevind dat opbrengste op die aandelebeurse wel seisoenaal varieer in ooreenstemming met die lengtes van dae. In dié studie word daar getoon dat opbrengste noemenswaardig ooreenstem met die hoeveelheid sonlig gedurende herfs en winter. ’n Ander studie bestudeer weer seisoenale depressie in konteks met ’n ekwilibrium kapitaal-bate prysmodel om vas te stel of seisoenaliteit verklaar kan word deur ’n kondisionele weergawe van hierdie model waar die prys van risiko varieer oor tyd. Met bogenoemde as vertrekpunt, analiseer die verslag wat volg winterdepressie in die Suid-Afrikaanse aandelemark waar, eerstens, die variasie in lengtes van dae gedurende die jaar minder is as vir ander lande soos Swede en Engeland, en tweedens, waar ’n meer onlangse datastel die effekte van geintegreerde markte en globalisasie insluit. Die verslag kwantifiseer seisoenale depressie in die algemeen op die effektebeurs, pas dan regressie-modelle toe op verskeie industrie-sektore en oor verskillende periodes. Ten einde, word bevestig dat ’n kondisionele kapitaal-bate prysmodel seisoenaliteit as gevolg van winterdepressie kan verklaar. Vergeleke met vorige studies, word daar teenstrydighede in die resultate opgemerk ten opsigte van die verwagte tekens van die koeffisiënte. Met nadere ondersoek word bevind dat die seisoenaliteit in opbrengste ’n verskuiwing ondergaan het vergeleke met ’n ouer datastel. ’n Vorige bevinding dat faktore, tipies soos seisoenale depressie, beter verklaar kan word deur alpha opbrengste (risiko vrye obrengste afgetrek) as rou opbrengste, word bevestig. Die analise oor tyd verklaar gedeeltelik die onverwagte koeëfisiënte. Daar word waargeneem dat die geldigheid van regressie modelle oor twee opeenvolgende tydperke verswak het. Verder word daar ook bevind dat die absolute waardes van die koeëfisiënte verklein het en dat koeëfisiënte ’n liniêre verwantskap met opbrengste toon, slegs in die latere tydperk. Die toepassing van ‘n kondisionele kapitaal-bate prysmodel bevestig dat seisoenale depressie teenwoordig is in die prys van risiko. Daar word verder bevestig dat mark risiko gedeeltelik seisoenale depressie verklaar en dat die oorblywende teenwoordigheid daarvan in die prys van risiko heelwat minder statistiese geldigheid het. Gegewe dit, tesame met die teenstrydigheid in die tekens van die koeëfisiënte, word enige duidelike konklusies ten opsigte van seisoenale depressie se teenwoordigheid in die Suid-Afrikaanse mark verhoed.

Climate change poses a major environmental challenge, due to its adverse effects on human settlement patterns and food security. The global phenomenon upsets seasonal shifts, leading to changes in planting dates and weather patterns. This unpredictability has severe and adverse effects on farmers and rural communities, as variable environmental factors govern activities related to daily sustenance and food availability. The kind of rapid and intense climate change that South African rural spaces are experiencing now, increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and floods. There are growing concerns that the rural poor will be unable to adapt. Rural livelihoods are therefore facing overwhelming and extensive environmental threats, while rural dwellers are finding it difficult to adapt and cope. As a result, climate change can thus be described as one of the most complex and dangerous environmental problems challenging rural livelihoods today. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of climate change on rural poverty at Binfield village in the Eastern Cape and to identify the livelihood activities practiced. Furthermore, the research was conducted to ascertain how rural livelihood activities are affected by climate change and identify and assess the effectiveness of adaption strategies employed by the households. The research also aimed to explore and establish further adaptation strategies. This study made use of a qualitative research method. Babooa (2008) argues that qualitative research is concerned with stories and accounts including subjective understandings, feelings, opinions and beliefs. The study used both primary and secondary data for data. The researcher adopted interviews and field observation for primary data whilst secondary data was sourced from journals, articles and internet sources. O‘ Leary (2004) describes the interview as a method of collecting data where the interviewer asks the Interviewee open-ended questions. The questions were based on the key areas of interest. Qualitative research methods are aimed at understanding the rich, complex characteristic nature of human phenomena. Qualitative methods are concerned with understanding human behaviour from the participant‘s own frame of reference.

The world is becoming more complex due to the increasing occurrence of social-ecological change. This is particularly evident in the developing world, especially on the African continent, where existing vulnerabilities (i.e. endemic poverty, weak governance, overpopulation and HIV/AIDS) are being exacerbated by the impact of climate change. Climate change poses a very real threat to millions of Africans, especially those who rely on the natural world for their livelihoods. The increasing variability of climate and rainfall patterns are said to have dire consequences on agricultural production which is the main livelihood activity of rural dwellers across the continent. The impacts of such change and variability include, changes in the frequency and intensity of droughts, flooding and heavy storms, leading to worsening soil conditions, desertification as well as disease and pest out-breaks which will likely result in reduced crop and livestock yields. A reduction in agricultural production will likely have a negative effect on the food security of millions of people. This study was conducted in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, in two rural villages, Fairbairn and Ntloko located in the former Ciskei homeland, with the purpose of exploring the nexus between climate change, cultivation and food security. This study combined social-ecological thinking with that of political ecology to create a robust lens, in which to analyse the complex interactions between humans and the environment. A mixed methods approach was used to gather the data which consisted of a household survey, using a structured questionnaire as well as semi-structured interviews with various respondents. Quantitative data were analysed using Excel and Statistica 13, whilst coding was used for qualitative data. The main aim of the study was to explore the extent and characteristics of cultivation in the two study sites, the role of household food production in food security as well as the challenges that local cultivator’s face with regards to climate change. In recent decades, there has been a decline in rural agricultural production with many fields that were previously cultivated, lying vacant and unused. However, as this study found, cultivation is still important as over 50% of sampled households cultivated a small area within the homestead. This was mainly done to supplement household food expenditure in order to save cash incomes. The results also found that although participants had perceived negative changes in climate and rainfall (amount, onset, duration), it was not considered the most important challenge for own production. Rather, lack of fencing and capital were seen as major hindrances to efficient own production. Understanding the complexity of own production and food security under a changing climate can help form better and more resilient policies and strategies for rural development, in addition to strengthening future livelihoods of rural people in an ever changing world.

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a scientific and a socio-economic perspective. While our understanding of the tropical land rainfall variability and its future projection is highly uncertain, most of the vulnerable countries with a limited adaptation capability are within the tropical band. This dissertation combines a process-based physical understanding with observational analysis to characterize the spatio-temporal changes in the tropical land rainfall during a transient El Niño evolution, with an emphasis on the risk management of the dry and wet extremes. The broad objectives are two-fold: 1) To make better sense of the higher uncertainty in the tropical rainfall response to warming and 2) to improve climate risk management strategies in the tropical developing countries. An ENSO teleconnection mechanism, referred to as the tropical tropospheric temperature or TTT mechanism provides a theoretical framework to study the remote tropical land rainfall behavior during a transient El Niño warming. The TTT mechanism postulates that the tropic-wide free tropospheric warming interacts locally with the deep convection to modulate remote tropical climate. During the growth phase, anomalous free tropospheric temperature causes direct and fast atmospheric adjustments leading to tropospheric stability to deep moist convection and a drier response. Subsequently, during mature phase, a recovery of the initial rainfall deficit follows due to indirect and slower adjustments in surface temperature and humidity fields. In chapter 2 and 3 of this dissertation, the changes in the observed tropical land rainfall characteristics and other climate fields conditional on the growth and mature phase of El Niño warming are investigated and the role of dynamical and thermodynamic mechanisms as hypothesized by the TTT mechanism are elucidated. In chapter 4, an El Niño forecast based early action investment strategy is developed to reduce the socio-economic impacts of rainfall extremes at sub-seasonal to inter-annual lead time scales. In the part I (chapter 2), the analysis is conducted at a regional scale over the tropical Africa. Using the TTT mechanism, a physical explanation is provided for the contrasting rainfall response over the Western Sahel and tropical Eastern Africa during an El Niño. The study finds that the Western Sahel’s main rainy season (July-September) is affected by the growth phase of El Niño through (i) a lack of neighboring North Atlantic sea surface warming, (ii) an absence of an atmospheric column water vapor anomaly over the North Atlantic and Western Sahel, and (iii) higher atmospheric vertical stability over the Western Sahel, resulting in the suppression of mean seasonal rainfall as well as number of wet days. In contrast, the short rainy season (October-December) of tropical Eastern Africa is impacted by the mature phase of El Niño through (i) neighboring Indian Ocean sea surface warming, (ii) positive column water vapor anomalies over the Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Africa, and (iii) higher atmospheric vertical instability over tropical Eastern Africa, leading to an increase in mean seasonal rainfall as well as in the number of wet days. While the modulation of the frequency of wet days and seasonal mean accumulation is statistically significant, daily rainfall intensity (for days with rainfall >1 mm/day), whether mean, median, or extreme, does not show a significant response in either region. Hence, the variability in seasonal mean rainfall that can be attributed to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon in both regions is likely due to changes in the frequency of rainfall. These observed changes agree with the predictions of the TTT mechanism. In the part II (chapter 3), a global scale analysis is performed to more generally characterize the spatio-temporal differences in remote tropical land rainfall response to El Niño warming. The principal conclusions are: 1) during the El Niño growth phase relative to the neutral phase, rainfall decreases. A significant decrease in mean accumulation can be attributed to a significant increase in proportion of dry days and decrease in median and extreme intensity. A significant descent anomaly confirms the vertical stabilization and dominance of dynamical processes. 2) During the mature phase relative to the growth phase, rainfall increases, signifying a recovery from the suppression of deep moist convection. A significant increase in mean accumulation is accompanied by a decrease in proportion of dry days and by an increase in median and extreme intensity characteristics. The significant rise in the moisture field corroborates the dominance of thermodynamic processes. These findings are expected from the TTT mechanism and generalizes the findings of part I to the global scale. In the part III (chapter 4), an El Niño forecast based index insurance policy is developed that can be used as an early action investment instrument. The forecast insurance (FI) design framework is illustrated with an application to El Niño associated flood hazard during the January-February-March-April (JFMA) season over Piura region of Peru. In order to determine the economic utility of the system, a simple cost-loss decision model, incorporating the insurance cost, is developed. The main conclusion is that the proposed El Niño forecast insurance policy with the pre-event Niño1.2 index based trigger has significant reliability and substantial utility for a wide range of policy parameters considered. Relative to a no early action strategy, the advantage of the system generally increases with i) shortening in the lead time from 9 to 1 month, ii) increase in El Niño severity level from 10 to 50 year return period and iii) increase in avoidable loss to cost ratio (LCR) ratio from 1 to 1000. These results and the forecast insurance modeling and utility evaluation frameworks have implications for designing optimal contingent financial instruments for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

This dissertation investigates the financial health of municipalities in the United States, their margins of response to fiscal shocks, and their exposure and response to climate risk stemming from hurricanes. In Chapter 1, we construct a novel data set on the fiscal position of municipalities in the United States and document a secular decline in their financial health. Our data combines financial data from the Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports (ACFRs) of municipalities along with Census data of their revenue and expenditure cash flows. We find that a large share of municipalities operate with a negative net position---akin to a negative book equity position in the corporate context. We find that most of the decline originates from the accumulation of legacy obligations, i.e., pensions and other post-employment benefits (OPEBs); this is recognized by municipal bond markets through higher credit spreads. While accounting values from the ACFRs are informative, they are based on book valuations which potentially convey limited information about the economic value of assets and liabilities. Thus, we turn to the market valuation of local governments' equity by estimating an SDF that matches the valuation of a wide range of assets in the economy to prices future tax and expenditure claims. Using market prices for tax and expenditure claims, and market valuations of liability positions we find that the market values of equity are highly correlated with the book values. The negative equity position---in terms of book and market values---for some local governments suggests the presence of implicit insurance by the state and federal governments. The deteriorating fiscal position of municipalities across the United States raises questions about fiscal adjustment mechanisms municipalities have at their disposal and the general equilibrium effects of any adjustment taken. In Chapter 2, we utilize quasi-experimental variation in the year of property tax assessments in the state of Connecticut to provide causal evidence of the fiscal adjustment following a large decline in property values after the Great Financial Crisis. We find that local governments adjust tax rates to maintain stable tax revenues; there is no change in public employment levels and limited adjustments of public services. Our micro data on people's location further allows us to causally estimate the migration elasticity to a change in property tax rates. We find evidence of inter-state migration in response to an increase in property tax rates; and no statistically significant response of intra-state migration. Detailed property and location choice data reveal the elasticity of migration with regard to the property tax bill. An increase in the property tax bill by ten percent leads to an average increase in the migration propensity by about 1.5%. Finally, in Chapter 3, I investigate the investment component of local economic growth in municipalities after hurricanes. Using hand collected and web-scraped statutory property tax rate data in the U.S., I find that municipalities respond to hurricane impact by raising tax rates. I find the hike in tax rates is persistent for 3-4 years after hurricane impact. The response is four times larger for major hurricanes compared to minor hurricanes. However, the increase in tax rates is not expected to be large enough to cause significant out-migration after the average hurricane. I supplement these findings with a novel data set of firm facility-level hurricane impact. I find that firms initially decrease investment in the quarter following hurricane impact and increase it in the final quarters of the second year after impact. Taken together, this chapter presents a novel set of stylized facts on government and firm mitigation investment response to hurricane disasters. In particular, the precarious fiscal health of municipalities coupled with increasing costs of mitigating and managing climate risk poses serious questions about optimal policy in assisting local governments vulnerable to climate change.

Schools are among the most important contributors to human capital development. Over the past few decades, the education sector has witnessed two significant trends that highlight the complex challenges and opportunities that schools currently face. First, there is a growing concern over the quality of the public school system. In response, school choice initiatives have become increasingly common, proposed as a means to introduce competitive forces into the education market, thereby incentivizing incumbent schools to enhance their quality. Second, the impact of climate change on human capital development has become increasingly apparent. The education system is particularly vulnerable to disruptions caused by climate-induced adverse events, such as natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks, which are growing more frequent and severe. This dissertation examines the consequences of these two important trends, aiming to provide insights into their implications for education policy. In the first chapter, I study the impact of competitive pressures on school resource allocation and the consequent impact on student achievement. Using administrative data in North Carolina, I examine the impact of nearby charter openings on the class structure and the allocation of teachers to students within traditional public schools (TPSs). I find that TPSs experience a significant attrition of teachers and a disproportionate exodus of economically advantaged and high-achieving students to charter schools. Subsequently, TPSs reduce the number of classes, resulting in a significant increase in both class size and the student-teacher ratio. Faced with the dual pressures of enlarged class sizes and the necessity of maintaining school proficiency rates dictated by accountability systems, TPSs undertake measures to enhance the allocation equity and efficiency of teaching resources. This involves a strategic reassignment of more high-quality teachers to disadvantaged students, and the enhancement in teacher-student racial matching. These effects remain consistent after accounting for changes in the composition of both teachers and students at the school level before and after the introduction of charter schools. Exposure to charter schools does not significantly affect the average standardized test scores in Math for TPSs, but it does lead to a noticeable increase in school proficiency rates. The second chapter studies the implications of alternative school choice designs for the equity and efficiency in the allocation of teachers within TPSs. This chapter develops and estimates an empirical model of school choice and school competition to characterize how TPSs reallocate teachers to students in response to competitive forces from charter schools, and the subsequent impacts on the distribution of student academic performance. I use administrative data from North Carolina to estimate the model with standard structural model estimation techniques. I utilize the model to assess the policy implications of expanding charter schools, decomposing the policy's effects into those stemming from student sorting and those from the reallocation of teachers (via the competition channel). I find that expanding the charter school sector effectively enhances equity in the distribution of high-quality teachers within TPSs and reduces achievement gaps, primarily through the competition channel. Additionally, optimizing the matching process between teachers and students can further facilitate allocative efficiency as a result of this policy. The third chapter focuses on the distributional effects of climate change on human capital development, with an acute emphasis on the suffering of the most disadvantaged students. We examine the causal effect of unexpected school closures due to wildfires on student academic achievement and the underlying mechanisms. We exploit exogenous variation in the intensity of wildfire school closures in California between 2009 and 2017 as a natural experiment. We find that wildfire school closures have negative effects on both English language arts and Math test scores. Students with lower socioeconomic status experience larger negative effects from such unexpected closures. Furthermore, we show that school time loss and air pollution are two important mechanisms contributing to the decline we measure in student achievement.

In my thesis, I address two important issues: (i) the creation of a price signal through the use of carbon markets (or cap-and-trade schemes) and (ii) the necessity to reach a global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. It consists of three separate papers. Chapters 2 and 3 of this thesis emphasize theoretically and empirically the fact that achieving international cooperation on climate change is very difficult. Chapter 3 suggests that the global nature of the climate change problem and the design of climate agreements (i.e. the means available to reduce CO2 emissions) may explain this failure. Chapter 2 shows theoretically that asymmetric information between countries may exacerbate the free-rider problem. These two chapters also provide some possible solutions to the lack of international cooperation. To address the issue of information asymmetry, chapter 2 proposes the creation of institutions in charge of gathering and certifying countries' private information before environmental negotiations. If achieving international cooperation is still not possible, chapter 3 suggests that regional cooperation may supplement global treaties. Chapter 1 presents an example of such a regional agreement to reduce CO2 emissions. The EU emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change. However, as it is highlighted in chapter 1, the design of such regional carbon markets really matters for their success in reducing carbon emissions. This chapter shows the interactions between intertemporal permit trading and the incentives of firms to undertake long-term investments in abatement technologies. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The primary aim of my research was to identify the impacts and adaptation options of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. The following objectives were identified: To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province , To assess the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province and To identify adaptation measures that reduces the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. A representative sample of 300 farmers aged 16- 65+ years (46 percent males and 54 percent females) participated in the study. The study involved Sekhukhune and Capricorn districts, with 56 percent farmers in Capricorn and 44 percent in Sekhukhune district. The following 11 local municipalities were visited: Elias Motsoaledi, Makhuduthamaga, Fetakgomo, Ephraim Mogale, Tubatse, Lepelle Nkumpi, Blouberg, Aganang, Polokwane, and Molemole. The Limpopo province is one of the poorest provinces in the country, characterized by high unemployment rate, poverty and lack of access to a range of resources that frustrate majority of people ability to secure their livelihoods. In this study the province's economic, biological and physical environment were highlighted. The study further covers the province, s farming enterprises, systems, categories, infrastructure as well as other constraints that maybe facing the emerging farmer in the province. It is assumed that the majority of farmers in both the Capricorn and Sekhukhune districts are using different coping and adaptation strategies in order to increase their crop yields. Literature studies show that climate variability and change adaptation strategies vary from area to area due to agro ecological zones and the harshness of the effects of climate variability and change. It has also been noted that climate change is fast pushing the poorest and most marginalized communities beyond their capacity to respond. This study draws on lessons learned, experiences, and other existing research on climate change impacts and adaptation across the globe. It sets out what is needed to enable people living in poverty to adapt to climate change, and a range of interventions that are available across climate - sensitive sectors. The study has provided a literature review of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. In fact, it has documented some of the likely impacts of climate change based on International, continental, regional, national and provincial agricultural sector. The study highlighted the impact of climate change also on various climate - sensitive sectors including understanding water resources, forestry, natural ecosystem human health, infrastructure and coastal zones. This research also confirmed that being a full time farmer, gender, information on climate change, information received through extension services and adaptation to climate change are some of the important determinants of agricultural production, food scarcity and unemployment. A worrying situation is reviewed globally in this study and it can be concluded that climate variability and change is affecting every sector in society and it needs urgent attention. Statistics was used to determine climate variability and change impact on agricultural production. Results indicate that farmers are aware that Limpopo province is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts, changes in the timing of rains, observed trends oftemperature and precipitation. The study also presented perceived adaptation strategies used by farmers in Limpopo province. Some of their perceived adaptation strategies included: (a) Soil management strategies, (b) Water management strategies and (c) Others like use of subsidies and use of insurance. Other important adaptation options being used by farmers were also discussed in this study including different adaptation measures against colds, heat, frost, abnormal wind, hail, lack of extension support, nematodes, insecticides, worms, temperature and rainfall. The results of this study are potentially valuable to the agricultural sector considering the threats that climate change poses across climate sensitive sectors. / Environmental Sciences / D. Phil. (Environmental Management)

The risk of climate change has gained prominence globally and also in South Africa. Companies operating in developing countries such as South Africa are perceived to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. There have been mixed reactions to this risk by companies ranging from inaction to significant financial outlays expended on mitigating this risk. Whilst climate change is potentially a downside risk to financial performance, certain companies have identified opportunities to enhance their returns in the course of adapting to climate change. This study assessed whether there is a relationship between climate change and the financial performance, as manifested in the mitigation of risks and exploitation of opportunities of selected South African companies. The study sought to establish the extent to which climate change creates relevant and material risks, returns and opportunities for companies. The study was conducted using a combination of a literature review and empirical research in the form of secondary analysis. Data on climate-change performance, risks and opportunities was compared to data on financial indicators. The population of companies selected for the empirical research consisted of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed companies that had publicly disclosed information to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) in 2012. Climate-change data was categorised to differentiate between varying levels of climate-change performance, and the identified categories were compared to a range of ratios that demonstrated financial return. The research concluded that climate-change risks and opportunities are expected to have a significant and highly likely impact on company operations, revenue and expenditure. Positive and statistically significant correlations were identified between climate-change performance and equity analyst recommendations, historical internal rates of return, market values to book values, forecasted earnings per share, beta coefficients, and return on equity. Climate-change performance was not found to have a significant effect on the cost of capital. / Management Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

The primary aim of my research was to identify the impacts and adaptation options of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. The following objectives were identified: To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province , To assess the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province and To identify adaptation measures that reduces the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. A representative sample of 300 farmers aged 16- 65+ years (46 percent males and 54 percent females) participated in the study. The study involved Sekhukhune and Capricorn districts, with 56 percent farmers in Capricorn and 44 percent in Sekhukhune district. The following 11 local municipalities were visited: Elias Motsoaledi, Makhuduthamaga, Fetakgomo, Ephraim Mogale, Tubatse, Lepelle Nkumpi, Blouberg, Aganang, Polokwane, and Molemole. The Limpopo province is one of the poorest provinces in the country, characterized by high unemployment rate, poverty and lack of access to a range of resources that frustrate majority of people ability to secure their livelihoods. In this study the province's economic, biological and physical environment were highlighted. The study further covers the province, s farming enterprises, systems, categories, infrastructure as well as other constraints that maybe facing the emerging farmer in the province. It is assumed that the majority of farmers in both the Capricorn and Sekhukhune districts are using different coping and adaptation strategies in order to increase their crop yields. Literature studies show that climate variability and change adaptation strategies vary from area to area due to agro ecological zones and the harshness of the effects of climate variability and change. It has also been noted that climate change is fast pushing the poorest and most marginalized communities beyond their capacity to respond. This study draws on lessons learned, experiences, and other existing research on climate change impacts and adaptation across the globe. It sets out what is needed to enable people living in poverty to adapt to climate change, and a range of interventions that are available across climate - sensitive sectors. The study has provided a literature review of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. In fact, it has documented some of the likely impacts of climate change based on International, continental, regional, national and provincial agricultural sector. The study highlighted the impact of climate change also on various climate - sensitive sectors including understanding water resources, forestry, natural ecosystem human health, infrastructure and coastal zones. This research also confirmed that being a full time farmer, gender, information on climate change, information received through extension services and adaptation to climate change are some of the important determinants of agricultural production, food scarcity and unemployment. A worrying situation is reviewed globally in this study and it can be concluded that climate variability and change is affecting every sector in society and it needs urgent attention. Statistics was used to determine climate variability and change impact on agricultural production. Results indicate that farmers are aware that Limpopo province is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts, changes in the timing of rains, observed trends oftemperature and precipitation. The study also presented perceived adaptation strategies used by farmers in Limpopo province. Some of their perceived adaptation strategies included: (a) Soil management strategies, (b) Water management strategies and (c) Others like use of subsidies and use of insurance. Other important adaptation options being used by farmers were also discussed in this study including different adaptation measures against colds, heat, frost, abnormal wind, hail, lack of extension support, nematodes, insecticides, worms, temperature and rainfall. The results of this study are potentially valuable to the agricultural sector considering the threats that climate change poses across climate sensitive sectors. / Environmental Sciences / D. Phil. (Environmental Management)