Thesis (M.S. in Physical Oceanography and M.S. in Meteorology)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Murphree, Tom ; Stone, Rebecca E. "September 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on November 10, 2009. Author(s) subject terms: Sonic Layer Depth, Undersea Warfare, USW, Military Operations, Planning Timeframe, Anti-Submarine Warfare, ASW Western North Pacific, Climate, Climatology, Climate Analysis, Climate Prediction, Smart Climatology, Conditional Climatology, Long-range Forecast, Statistical Forecast, Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, SODA, Meteorology, Oceanography Includes bibliographical references (p. 71-73). Also available in print.

Extratropical cyclones are responsible for a substantial portion of midlatitude climate variability and contribute to widespread impacts. The characteristics of extratropical cyclones, such as their spatial distribution and intensity, are thought to be dependent on the large scale circulation. The relationship between cyclone characteristics and modes of large-scale climate variability has been investigated in previous studies, but interactions between modes of climate variability have largely been ignored. Since extratropical cyclone characteristics may be related to interactions between phases, quantifying these relationships is an important step in improving the climatology of extratropical cyclones. The goal of this study is to quantify relationships between modes of climate variability and characteristics of strong cyclones in the contiguous United States. Using historical sea-level pressure data, cyclone intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution are investigated using a cyclone definition that combines the requirement for low pressure (1000 hPa or lower) and positive (cyclonic) vorticity. The large scale modes of climate variability considered include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American (PNA) mode, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The analysis is divided into three phases focusing on (1) establishing a background cyclone climatology within the study area, (2) quantifying differences in cyclone characteristics between the positive and negative phases of the individual modes of climate variability, and (3) examining the interactions between the modes of climate variability as they relate to extratropical cyclone characteristics. The results are expected to provide an improved baseline for evaluation of coupled climate models and also have the potential to improve seasonal climate predictability.

Capturing CO2 produced by power plants and storing it within depleted oil and natural gas reservoirs in the seabed offers a potential means to reduce the emissions that contribute to climate change. This is known as carbon capture and storage (CCS). CO2 captured from power plants is transported to these reservoirs using pipelines. To determine the parameters of pipeline operation this calls for a need to characterise, via an "equation of state", the physical properties of CO2 during transport. Doing so is further complicated by the fact that CO2 captured from power stations is typically a mixture of CO2 with other fluids. This affects the physical properties of the CO2 to be transported and so needs to be accounted for. In this thesis we develop statistical models for equations of state that can account for the physical properties of CO2 relevant to carbon capture and storage, and which allow us to quantify uncertainty in the predictions from the equation of state. We propose two statistical models for equations of state. Firstly we develop a statistical model which can be applied to any pressure-explicit parametric equation of state. To do so we have developed a novel method by which to rigorously account for uncertainties due to coexistence which is complicated by the fact that it involves perfectly correlated measurements on two fluid phases. We fit this model to pure CO2 obtaining good agreement with data for most temperatures. We then extended this model and our method for accounting for coexistence to mixtures. We fit this model to real CO2-H2 data. Despite mixing well, the results of this fit do not agree well with the data and equations of state need to be developed further to be able to model mixture data well. Secondly we develop a non-parametric Gaussian process approach which offers greater flexibility and requires fewer assumptions. This non-parametric model is fit to pure CO2 reference data for individual subcritical temperatures. We demonstrate how applying a transformation to the covariance function can account for non-stationarity in the data resulting in good agreement between predictions from the fit model and the data.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2013-10-18Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:36:17Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 pinto_php_me_rcla.pdf: 10546371 bytes, checksum: 1729bbb9a4bef55a0182292b55fed312 (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / O presente estudo trata-se de uma análise acerca da distribuição espacial e temporal das chuvas no estado do Tocantins e da participação dos sistemas atmosféricos na gênese desta. Esta pesquisa possui sua relevância, principalmente devido à sua contribuição para o conhecimento científico da área de estudo, uma vez verificada a carência de estudos climatológicos de base genética e dinâmica realizados na área em foco. Os dados de chuva utilizados nesta pesquisa provêm de estações pluviométricas da Agência Nacional da Águas (ANA) e de estações meteorológicas convencionais do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). No tratamento e análise dos dados foi utilizadas técnicas como a Análise Rítmica. A identificação dos sistemas atmosféricos foi realizada a partir da inspeção visual das Cartas Sinóticas disponibilizadas na internet pela Diretoria de Hidrografia da Marinha do Brasil. Também foram utilizadas imagens dos satélites meteorológicos GOES e METEOSAT, disponível na página do NOAA na internet. Os resultados aqui alcançados foram apresentados e analisados em forma de cartas de isoietas anuais, sazonais, mensais, pluviogramas e de gráficos de Análise Rítmica. Para proceder à análise diária do comportamento dos elementos climáticos e dos principais sistemas atmosféricos atuantes na área de estudo, recorreu-se à utilização da classificação dos “anos padrão”. Após classificados os anos de padrão seco, habitual e chuvoso foram realizadas análises diárias para os dados coletados por duas estações meteorológicos do INMET. Após a análise do material cartográfico, constatou-se que as chuvas apresentam-se mais abundantes no quadrante oeste do estado do Tocantins e um tanto mais escassas no quadrante oposto. O quadrante sul é habitualmente mais seco, mas apresentam variações dependendo... / This study deals with an analysis on the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the state of Tocantins and the participation of weather systems in the genesis of this. This research has relevance, mainly due to its contribution to the scientific knowledge of the study area, once verified the lack of climatological studies of the genetic basis and dynamics performed in the area in focus. The rainfall data used in this research come from rainfall stations of the Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) and conventional meteorological stations of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). Treatment and data analysis technique was used as the Rhythmic Analysis. The identification of weather systems was based on visual inspection of Synoptic charts available on the Internet by the Directorate of Hydrography of the Navy of Brazil. Were also used images from weather satellites GOES and METEOSAT, available on the NOAA internet. The results achieved here were analyzed and presented in the form of letters of isohyets annual, seasonal, monthly rainfalls and Analysis Rhythmic charts. For analysis of the daily behavior of climatic elements and the main atmospheric systems operating in the study area, resorted to the use of the classification of standard years. After years of sorted default dry, normal and wet analyzes were performed daily for the data collected for two meteorological stations INMET. After the analysis of cartographic material, it was found that the rains have become more abundant in the western quadrant of the state of Tocantins and somewhat scarcer in the opposite quadrant. The south quadrant is usually drier but show variations depending on the annual standard, the same occurs with the northern part. With regard to the regime, rainfall is most abundant during the spring - summer and less occurring in autumn-winter... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-11-14Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:36:24Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 castilho_fjv_me_rcla.pdf: 6206384 bytes, checksum: 2631b27bae8815bddcc263d060b05e52 (MD5) / Esta pesquisa objetiva analisar a relação do clima urbano de São José do Rio Preto e sua influência no agravamento ou incidência de enfermidades cardíacas e respiratórias, durante o verão e inverno de 2005. Observou-se no estudo do clima urbano que os bairros mais adensados, com ausência de vegetação, registram a formação de uma Ilha de Calor, já aqueles setores que possuem melhor infra-estrutura, como maior presença de espaços verdes e menor adensamento de edificações, mostram a formação da Ilha de Frescor, sendo áreas mais confortáveis à vida humana. Na abordagem das enfermidades, verificaram-se números elevados de enfermos no inverno, devido às condições atmosféricas desfavoráveis à saúde humana, principalmente com seqüentes atuações de sistemas atmosféricos frios e secos. A distribuição espacial das enfermidades mostrou íntima relação entre as condições socioeconômicas da população e a ocorrência das patologias. Houve também uma analogia entre as condições climáticas urbanas mais adversas e o aumento na incidência das enfermidades, como nos bairros adensados da zona Norte e ao entorno do setor central. Esse trabalho objetiva também oferecer subsídios ao poder público na tentativa de melhorar as condições ambientais e de saúde da cidade e conseqüentemente a qualidade de vida da população rio-pretense. / The objective of this research is to analyze the relation between the urban climate in São José do Rio Preto and its influence on the aggravation or incidence of cardiac and respiratory diseases, during the summer and the winter of 2005. It has been noticed that a densely populated area, without vegetation, registers the development of a Heat Island, on the other hand, in places where there is a better infrastructure, such as, broad green areas and lowdensity housing, it can be observed that a Cool Island is developed, becoming pleasant places to human life. In the approach to diseases, it has been noticed that there are elevated numbers of diseased people in the winter, due to atmospheric conditions that are unfavorable to human health, which imply cool-dry climate. The spatial distribution of the infirmities showed a close relation between social-economic conditions of population and the occurrence of the pathologies. There also was an analogy between adverse urban climatic conditions and the increase in the incidence of infirmities, like in dense neighborhoods in the north of the city and in adjacencies of the central area. This work also aims to provide subsidy to the government in order to improve environmental and health conditions in the city, and consequently to increase the quality of life in São José do Rio Preto.

Orientador: João Afonso Zavattini / Banca: Lucas Barbosa e Souza / Banca: Anderson Luis Hebling Christofoletti / Resumo: O presente estudo trata-se de uma análise acerca da distribuição espacial e temporal das chuvas no estado do Tocantins e da participação dos sistemas atmosféricos na gênese desta. Esta pesquisa possui sua relevância, principalmente devido à sua contribuição para o conhecimento científico da área de estudo, uma vez verificada a carência de estudos climatológicos de base genética e dinâmica realizados na área em foco. Os dados de chuva utilizados nesta pesquisa provêm de estações pluviométricas da Agência Nacional da Águas (ANA) e de estações meteorológicas convencionais do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). No tratamento e análise dos dados foi utilizadas técnicas como a Análise Rítmica. A identificação dos sistemas atmosféricos foi realizada a partir da inspeção visual das Cartas Sinóticas disponibilizadas na internet pela Diretoria de Hidrografia da Marinha do Brasil. Também foram utilizadas imagens dos satélites meteorológicos GOES e METEOSAT, disponível na página do NOAA na internet. Os resultados aqui alcançados foram apresentados e analisados em forma de cartas de isoietas anuais, sazonais, mensais, pluviogramas e de gráficos de Análise Rítmica. Para proceder à análise diária do comportamento dos elementos climáticos e dos principais sistemas atmosféricos atuantes na área de estudo, recorreu-se à utilização da classificação dos "anos padrão". Após classificados os anos de padrão seco, habitual e chuvoso foram realizadas análises diárias para os dados coletados por duas estações meteorológicos do INMET. Após a análise do material cartográfico, constatou-se que as chuvas apresentam-se mais abundantes no quadrante oeste do estado do Tocantins e um tanto mais escassas no quadrante oposto. O quadrante sul é habitualmente mais seco, mas apresentam variações dependendo... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: This study deals with an analysis on the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the state of Tocantins and the participation of weather systems in the genesis of this. This research has relevance, mainly due to its contribution to the scientific knowledge of the study area, once verified the lack of climatological studies of the genetic basis and dynamics performed in the area in focus. The rainfall data used in this research come from rainfall stations of the Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) and conventional meteorological stations of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). Treatment and data analysis technique was used as the Rhythmic Analysis. The identification of weather systems was based on visual inspection of Synoptic charts available on the Internet by the Directorate of Hydrography of the Navy of Brazil. Were also used images from weather satellites GOES and METEOSAT, available on the NOAA internet. The results achieved here were analyzed and presented in the form of letters of isohyets annual, seasonal, monthly rainfalls and Analysis Rhythmic charts. For analysis of the daily behavior of climatic elements and the main atmospheric systems operating in the study area, resorted to the use of the classification of "standard years". After years of sorted default dry, normal and wet analyzes were performed daily for the data collected for two meteorological stations INMET. After the analysis of cartographic material, it was found that the rains have become more abundant in the western quadrant of the state of Tocantins and somewhat scarcer in the opposite quadrant. The south quadrant is usually drier but show variations depending on the annual standard, the same occurs with the northern part. With regard to the regime, rainfall is most abundant during the spring - summer and less occurring in autumn-winter... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Orientador: João Lima Sant'Anna Neto / Banca: João Osvaldo Rodrigues Nunes / Banca: Margarete Cristiane de Costa Trindade Amorim / Resumo: O presente trabalho constitui um mapeamento e análise sobre os discursos e práticas empreendidos pela climatologia geográfica brasileira. O principal propósito para o seu desenvolvimento foi a verificação de como o conhecimento geográfico do clima encontra-se vinculado aos debates efetivados pelas diversas correntes filosóficas de pensamento e às diferentes concepções de natureza e de geografia. A verificação do processo de inserção e constituição dessa especialidade científica no Brasil demonstrou a existência de duas vertentes metodológicas principais: uma baseada em decomposições analítico-descritivas do fenômeno climático e outra subsidiada nas explicações da meteorologia dinâmica. O estudo geográfico do clima, a partir desse universo de análise, é desenvolvido a partir de cinco recortes temáticos principais: clima urbano, variabilidade pluvial, o clima na análise ambiental e da paisagem, modelagem estatística em climatologia e teoria e método da climatologia; pautados na concepção de natureza dinâmica-sistêmica. Foi verificado que as questões epistemológicas da Geografia não são refletidas enfaticamente pela climatologia geográfica brasileira, tornando a apreensão da espacialidade do clima na composição das novas territorialidades uma tarefa difícil de ser realizada. / Abstract: The main purpose of this following thesis is to verify how the geographic knowledge of the climate relates to debates about diverse philosophical trends and the different conceptions of nature and geography, by mapping out and analyzing discourses and practices within the scope of the Brazilian geographic climatology. The climate geographic study, in this universe of analysis, is developed from five main themes: urban climate, pluvial variability, the climate in the environment and setting analysis, statistical modeling in climatology and climatology theory and method; all of them based on the conception of the dynamic-systemic nature. It was verified that epistemological problems in Geography are not emphatically concerned by Brazilian geographic climatology, what can make the understanding of the climate spatiality in the composition of new territorialities a difficult task. / Doutor

The rapid and unsustainable urbanization process causes a serious existing thermal environmental problem that aggravates climatic change and generates a higher temperature in urban area than in rural area. Based on literature review, this is the first research that uses field measurement methodology to investigate the urban heat island (UHI) effect in Hangzhou and Ningbo cities of Zhejiang Province. This study aims to investigate reciprocal interaction of UHI effect with urban building energy based on the air temperature and relative humidity measurement in research area. There are three main factors including vegetation cover, urban building configuration and surface material properties, and human activities, contributing to the UHI development. Through using ENVI-met simulation, the study has investigated how the West Lake and the Xixi Wetland ecological areas in the city act as passive thermal comfort systems in improving the outdoor built environment and mitigating UHI effect. However, according to the observation, the UHI effect in Hangzhou is still more intense than that in Ningbo. The monthly average UHII values in Hangzhou ranged between 1℃ and 4℃, whilst the highest monthly average UHII in Ningbo is only as high as 1.5℃. Additionally, the study has evaluated that the UHI effect is most pronounce in winter days, because there is serious air pollution, high concentration of Particulate Matter (PM) and low wind speed in winter days in China. The result has also proved that the night time UHI effect is significantly more intense than the day time UHI effect. It has been validated in the study that UHI effect can be mitigated by three effective strategies, such as the application of cool materials on urban surfaces, modifying urban geometry to improve wind flow and expanding green space in urban areas. Owing to the hourly air temperature and relative humidity collected from strategically selected sites around the city, modified TMY weather dataset has been established. The research employed a case study of China Telecom Business Office Building in Hangzhou to evaluate the impact of UHI on urban building energy consumption. It implies that there is about 20% cooling demand underestimated in the hot months and about 25% heating demand overestimated in the cold months for the office building located in the urban city of Hangzhou, if the building is designed based on currently available weather dataset without considering UHI effect. Based on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP) techniques, the research has provided algorithms to link factors such as “Distance from City Centre”, “Surrounding Albedo”, “Land Use of the Area (residential, commercial, industrial, recreational etc.)”, “Sky View Factor” to predict the UHI intensity for any site compared to a reference site.

The single greatest uncertainty in seasonal water supply forecasts is the amount of precipitation falling after the forecast issue date. There has been a long history of attempting to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts into operational water supply forecasts. The skill of these precipitation forecasts remains low especially compared to highly confident snow-based streamflow forecasts. Early in the season (e.g., September-December), however, large-scale climate indices are the best available predictors of future water supplies. This dissertation suggests practical methods for issuing climate-based operational streamflow forecasts.This study also documents the existence of strong decadal trends in water supply forecast skill. Across the Western US, 1 April forecast skill peaked in the 1960-1970s and has been on the decline more recently. The high skill period was a very calm period in the Western US, with a near absence of extreme (wet or dry) spring precipitation events. In contrast, the period after 1980 has had the most variable, persistent, and skewed spring and summer streamflows in the modern record. Spring precipitation is also now more variable than it has been since at least the 1930s. This rise in spring precipitation variability in the Colorado/Rio Grande Basins and the Pacific Northwest is the likely cause behind the recent decline in water supply forecast skill.

This research focusses on observing and modelling the suburban surface energy balance. The initial objective is to use measurements to elucidate the controls on the size and temporal variability of the latent heat flux. This is achieved by synchronous observations of suburban and rural energy balances. On the basis of this comparison it is proposed that the day-to-day variability of the partitioning of the suburban turbulent fluxes is linked both to larger-scale atmospheric influences and variations in the energy and moisture availability within the suburban 'canopy'. This hypothesis is examined through measurement and modelling. Further observations of the suburban energy balance components reveal that the size of the Bowen ratio is linked to the surface moisture availability. This is comprised of soil moisture variations in unirrigated greenspace areas and also the anthropogenic influence of lawn irrigation. However, in addition to this, the day-to-day variability of the Bowen ratio is a function of an advective influence upon the saturation deficit in the surface and mixed-layers. The mechanisms which determine this relationship are identified as meso-scale advective effects resulting from differing land-uses. This influences the nature of the mixed-layer and hence surface fluxes. In light of this interaction of scales and atmospheric processes, a model is developed that couples advectively-dominated mixed-layer dynamics with surface-layer exchanges of heat and mass. The acronym for the model is SCABLE, Suburban Canopy and Boundary Layer Evaporation model). It predicts the diurnal evolution of the mixed-layer depth, temperature and humidity. The saturation deficit of the mixed-layer is an input to the surface evaporation model. In turn this enables the surface sensible heat flux to be calculated from the surface energy balance (using measurements of the available energy). This modelled surface sensible heat flux drives the growth of this mixed-layer and thus the rate of entrainment from the capping inversion. The temperature and moisture structure of the mixed-layer is determined by both inputs from the surface-layer, and from the "free" atmosphere. The suburban canopy evaporation sub-model is based on the 'big leaf' Combination model, with a parameterisation scheme for the surface and aerodynamic resistances based upon the approaches taken by Shuttleworth (1976, 1978). The model performs adequately for simulating the day-to-day variability of the saturation deficit and surface evaporation. Its performance on an hourly basis indicates that the model weaknesses lie in the simulation of the diurnal behaviour of the surface resistance and potential temperature of the mixed-layer. It is concluded in the thesis that such an approach is necessary and valid for predicting and understanding the evaporation regime in areas the size of suburbia. This is especially true where there is likely to be a combination of factors determining the surface evaporation rate. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate