Cette thèse s'intéresse à la modélisation numérique du couplage entre l'océan et l'atmosphère. Bien que présentant un certain nombre de caractéristiques communes, ces deux milieux physiques sont suffisamment dissemblables pour être numériquement simulés par des modèles distincts, incluant chacun des spécificités propres. Par conséquent, leurs interactions sont prises en compte via des algorithmes de couplage multiphysique.La mise en place de tels algorithmes nécessite une bonne compréhension des modélisations des milieux océanique et atmosphérique, en particulier au voisinage de leur interface commune. C'est pourquoi une partie conséquente de la présente thèse dissèque, analyse et complète les paramétrisations turbulentes, qui sont des mécanismes numériques définis au niveau continu, traitant la couche limite turbulente au voisinage de la surface océanique. Les travaux entrepris ont permis d'identifier deux sources d'erreurs, théoriquement et numériquement significatives, dans la modélisation numérique standard de l'interface océan-atmosphère.La première source d'erreur se manifeste dans les formulations continues des paramétrisations turbulentes: celles-ci sont actuellement utilisées de manière incomplète, ce qui se traduit par le caractère mathématiquement irrégulier des solutions qu'elles génèrent. En revenant aux fondements de la théorie dont les paramétrisations découlent, la présente thèse étend leur domaine d'application, permettant de générer des profils de solution réguliers, dans un cadre théorique uniforme et bi-domaine. Les effets d'une telle extension sont numériquement évalués sur des cas tests physiquement réalistes: celle-ci peut mener à des biais considérables (de l'ordre de 20%) dans les flux échangés entre océan et atmosphère. D'un point de vue théorique, cette extension permet de définir des critères simples sous lesquels le couplage océan-atmosphère peut être considéré comme cohérent par rapport aux deux domaines physiques, et surtout aux paramétrisations turbulentes.La seconde source d'erreur est de nature algorithmique: elle concerne la discrétisation temporelle des mécanismes de couplage. Les méthodes actuelles, dites ad hoc, ne garantissent pas une complète cohérence des flux d'un modèle à l'autre. Les algorithmes de Schwarz globaux en temps, issus de thématiques liées à la décomposition de domaine, constituent une piste intéressante pour traiter ces aspects. La mise en place de tels algorithmes sur des modèles physiquement réalistes représente un défi considérable. Leur impact numérique sur des cas tests simplifiés est évalué. L'étude préalable des paramétrisations turbulentes permet de donner des pistes quant au développement d'algorithmes de couplage, concernant à la fois la cohérence du couplage précédemment introduite, et l'incorporation graduelle d'effets physiques plus complexes. / This thesis focuses on the numerical modelling of the air-sea coupling. Although they share some common features, these two physical environments are sufficiently dissimilar for their numerical treatment to be carried out by distinct models, each including their own specificities. The interactions between these two components are thus taken into account through coupling algorithms.Implementing such algorithms requires proper understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric modelling, most importantly in the vicinity of their common interface. Therefore a substantial part of this thesis dissects, analyzes and completes turbulent parameterization schemes, which are the numerical mechanisms, defined at a continuous level, through which the turbulent surface layer at the vicinity of the sea surface is treated. Two theoretically and numerically meaningful sources of errors in the standard numerical modelling of the air-sea interface have been isolated.The first source of error lies in the continuous formulation of the turbulent parameterizations, which are currently used in an incomplete manner, leading to mathematically irregular solution profiles. By carefully studying their theoretical bases, this thesis extends the parameterizations, allowing them to generate regular profiles within a standardized, bi-domain framework. Numerical investigations on physically relevant test cases show that including such an extension can result in considerable bias (of the order of 20%) in air-sea fluxes evaluations. From a theoretical perspective, carrying this extension leads to establishing simple criteria under which the air-sea coupling can be considered as coherent with respect to the two physical environments, and more importantly, to the turbulent parameterizations.The second source of error is algorithmic in essence: it is linked to the temporal discretization of the coupling mechanisms. Existing ad hoc methods do not guarantee perfect coherence of the air-sea fluxes from one model to the other. Global in time Schwarz algorithms, which have first been developed as domain decomposition methods, are good candidates for correcting these flaws, although their implementation to the air-sea context is a considerable challenge, given the complexity of this problem. Investigations on the numerical impact of such algorithms are carried out on simplified test cases. Thanks to the undertaken work on turbulent parameterizations, perspectives on the development of coupling algorithms are given, regarding both their coherence as per the aforementioned conditions, and the gradually increasing complexity of physical effects that are accounted for.

Satellite communication and navigation applications suffer due to space weather phenomena. The effects are particularly pronounced in the equatorial regions, which are highly ionised and more easily susceptible to space weather effects than the mid latitude regions. Nevertheless, the bulk of the research on TEC profile and behaviour has been carried out with respect to mid-latitude regions. The contribution of the Upper Plasmasphere (the altitudes above semisynchronous orbit height up to the Plasmapause height) to the Total Electron Content at any given location has been and continues to be an un-quantified component. The PEACE instrument in the Chinese – European Space Agency Double Star TC1 satellite and its highly eccentric equatorial orbit provides an excellent opportunity to build Upper Plasmaspheric Electron Content (UPEC) components in the Equatorial region from empirical in-situ measurements of electron density along the orbit in the 20000km to 40000km altitude range. This work develops and presents a methodology for deriving Plasmaspheric Electron Content from In-Situ, empirical electron density measurements in highly eccentric, elongated equatorial orbits, using the data from the Double Star TC1 satellite. As such this thesis also generates a database of Upper Plasmaspheric Electron Content (UPEC) along the orbital path of the TC1. This work also proposes a dedicated mission to be launched with highly eccentric orbits to generate a comprehensive equatorial TEC database based on this methodology. This works envisions that future mission to be preferably launched in the equatorial belt, thus providing the opportunity to develop an archive of data as well as a real time source for better understanding of the Appleton anomaly Effects on Plasmaspheric Electron Content.

Quantification of flood risk and flood inundation requires accurate numerical simulations, both in terms of the mathematical theory that underpins the methods used and the manner in which the meteorological phenomena that cause flooding are coupled to such systems. Through our research, we have demonstrated how rainfall and infiltration effects can be incorporated into existing flood models in a rigorous and mathematically consistent manner; this approach departs from preceding methods, which neglect terms representing such phenomena in the conservation or balancing of momentum. We demonstrate how the omission of these terms means the solution derived from such models cannot a priori be assumed to be the correct one, which is in contrast to solutions from the extended system we have developed which respect the energetic consistency of the problem. The second issue we address is determining how we can model these meteorological phenomena that lead to flooding, with a specific interest in how existing observation data from rain gauges can be incorporated into our modelling approach. To capture the random nature of the precipitation, we use stochastic processes to model the complex meteorological interactions, and demonstrate how an accurate representation of the precipitation can be built. Given the specific industrial applications we have mind in regards to flood modelling and prediction, there will be a high computational cost associated with any such simulations, and so we consider techniques which can be used to reduce the computational cost whilst maintaining the accuracy of our solutions. Having such an accurate flood model, coupled with a stochastic weather model designed for efficient computational modelling, will enable us to make useful predictions on how future climate change and weather patterns will impact flood risk and flood damage.

Data are presented from an automatic weather station on the Brintnell-Bologna Icefield that operated from August 2014 to August 2016 in Nahanni National Park Reserve. This location is notable for being the northernmost mass balance alpine study location of the federal government’s glaciology program (NRCan/GSC). The link between atmospheric forcing at the synoptic scale and response at the glacier surface has been shown to be strongly dependent on continentality and latitude. In this region, however, many aspects of the physical processes controlling the interaction between atmospheric forcing and snowpack response are virtually unknown, especially at the daily to hourly timescale. The character of snowfalls during the accumulation seasons for this icefield are investigated using high resolution time series from two acoustic snow depth sensors and other relevant meteorological parameters. It is found that the most drastic changes in snow depth occur from infrequent large snowfalls. Using an adaption of an Environment Canada snow depth algorithm, snowfall events are identified and their timing is quantified based on a system of thresholds, running averages and ratios between the snow depth sensors. Synoptic conditions are examined using meteorological reanalysis data and trajectory analysis to determine the moisture origin and pathway. / Graduate

O clima apresenta uma importância indiscutível, constituindo-se num dos mais relevantes elementos da biosfera, desta forma imprescindível o conhecimento minucioso de sua dinâmica, bem como de sua interação com os outros elementos do ambiente. Optou-se pelo estudo de uma \"bacia hidrográfica\" pelas facilidades de análise que a mesma oferece, pois por se tratar de uma unidade bem delimitada, todos os processos geológicos, geomorfológicos, hidrológicos, pedológicos, climatológicos, entre outros, ocorrem, em seu limite natural. Para tanto, selecionou-se a Bacia do Ribeirão do Lobo, por apresentar uma consistência de dados meteorológicos fundamentais para este estudo, e por abranger uma área de foco de muitas pesquisas em diversas áreas do conhecimento. Assim, uma das metas desta pesquisa foi apresentar informações climatológicas que subsidiarão a compreensão dos fenômenos interligados em outras áreas. A concepção climática elaborada por SORRE (1951) e na análise rítmica preconizada por MONTEIRO (1971) foram os conceitos norteadores desta pesquisa, entretanto, numa primeira etapa efetuou-se uma abordagem climática tradicional, utilizando-se de estatística e de computação, para definir as tendências ao longo da referida bacia hidrográfica. Assim, sob a temática do clima, foram analisados quatro episódios representativos, descrevendo o comportamento da circulação atmosférica e as repercussões nos elementos climáticos. / The climate presents an unquestionable importance, being constituted in one of the most important elements of the biosphere, thus becoming indispensable the meticulous knowledge of its dynamics, as well as its interaction with the other elements ofthe atmosphere. The study of a hydrographic basin was opted due to its easiness of analysis therefore for being a well delimited physical unit, all the geological processes, geomorphologic, hidrologic, pedologic, climatological, amog others, occur in its natural boundary. For this purpose, the Wolf River System was selected, by presenting a consistence of fundamental meteorological data for this study, and for comprising a focus area of many researches in several areas of knowledge. Thus, one of the goals of this research was to present climatological information that will subsidize the understanding of the interlinked phenomena in other areas. The climactic conception elaborated by SORRE (1951) and in the rhythmic analysis extolled by MONTEIRO (1971) were the guideline of this research, however, in a first stage it occurred a traditional climactic approach, making use of the statistics and of the computation, to define the tendencies along referred hydrographic basin. So, under the optics dynamics of the climate, four representative episodes were analyzed, describing the behavior of the atmospheric circulation and the repercussions in the climactic elements.

The machair is a coastal grassland system found only in parts of northern and western Scotland and Ireland. Despite its limited geographic distribution, machair landscapes have high ecological, geomorphological, and cultural significance, as recognised by numerous conservation designations and legislation. In January 2005 a severe storm caused extensive damage in the Outer Hebrides, drawing attention to the sensitivity of the machair coast to erosion. The aim of this research was to investigate variations and trends in the sensitivity of three field sites within the South Uist machair to soil and coastal erosion, and to interpret measured change alongside analysis of historic climate data. Two of the sites selected, Cille Pheadair and Staoinebrig, experienced some of the most dramatic geomorphological changes associated with the 2005 storm, while the third site, Milton, appeared to be more resistant to change. A combination of fieldwork, laboratory tests, and archive work was used to obtain and analyse information about sediment budgets, shoreline indicator change, and sediment erodibility, along with contextual climatic information. A key result of this work is the provision of a detailed framework of short-medium term cyclical changes and fluctuations in the coastal change, which provides a context for interpreting and responding to longer term trends in erosion and/or accretion. Results indicated high spatial and temporal variability in the erodibility of machair soils and landforms, with no clear relationship between climatic factors and rates of erosion. Considerable short-term variations in beach volume and the position of dynamic shoreline indicators caution against the relaibility of using ‘snap-shot’ historic datasets to infer long-term rates of change. It is proposed that the machair landscape currently functions in a state of highly dynamic equilibrium, which has been maintained over the last ~130 years. While storm events such as the January 2005 storm have locally dramatic consequences, they do not appear to have disrupted the overally physical and ecological functions of the system. This contribution is particularly timely given current concerns for the future of the machair landscape under predicted sea-level and climate change scenarios, and the potential for inappropriate hard-engineering responses to the perceived risk.

A utilização de coberturas verdes nas edificações traz vantagens como a regulação das temperaturas no ambiente construído, a melhora na eficiência energética, a retenção das águas pluviais, a atenuação dos efeitos das ilhas de calor e o aumento da biodiversidade no ambiente urbano. O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar experimentalmente o comportamento térmico de um sistema extensivo de cobertura verde em comparação com uma cobertura controle sem vegetação no período de transição entre as estações primavera-verão. O experimento foi composto por duas plataformas de teste construídas de forma a reproduzir um sistema de cobertura verde extensivo, sendo que uma plataforma recebeu o plantio de grama-amendoim e a outra foi mantida sem cobertura vegetal. Foram monitoradas as temperaturas dos níveis superior e inferior do substrato e também as temperaturas externas, abaixo da base das plataformas, por meio de termopares instalados em locais pré-determinados conectados a um sistema de aquisição de dados. Os dados de radiação solar global e das principais variáveis climáticas foram registrados pela estação meteorológica automática do Centro de Recursos Hídricos e Estudos Ambientais (CRHEA) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) em Itirapina- SP, local onde foi conduzido o estudo. As análises do comportamento térmico foram realizadas a partir das abordagens espacial e temporal da Climatologia Dinâmica como forma de conhecer a influência das flutuações do tempo meteorológico possibilitando a identificação de episódios climáticos e suas repercussões sobre os valores das temperaturas obtidas das plataformas de teste através da elaboração e análise de gráficos, com o auxílio das cartas sinóticas e imagens de satélite, para identificação do episódio representativo e escolha dos dias típicos experimentais. Os resultados indicaram que a cobertura verde apresentou melhor desempenho térmico em relação à cobertura controle por ter apresentado maior atraso térmico entre as superfícies superior e inferior, menor amplitude térmica nas superfícies e temperaturas máximas menores do que a temperatura máxima do ar. Concluiu-se que, para um dia quente e seco, a cobertura do substrato com uma camada densa de vegetação influencia os processos de troca de calor no perfil do substrato pelo bloqueio de parte da radiação solar incidente, fator principal que determina esses processos, permitindo que a superfície superior não atinja temperaturas acima da temperatura máxima do ar diária e também que esta temperatura se manifeste com maior atraso na superfície inferior. / The use of green roofs in buildings brings advantages such as the regulation of temperatures in the built environment, the improvement in energy efficiency, storm water retention, mitigating the heat islands effect and increasing biodiversity in the urban environment. The aim of this study is to analyze experimentally the thermal behavior of an extensive green roof system compared to a control roof with just soil layer in spring-summer transition period. The experiment consisted of two test platforms built to reproduce an extensive green roof system, one of wich was planted with perennial peanut and the other one was kept without vegetation. The temperatures of the upper and lower levels of the substrate and also external temperatures below the base of the platforms were monitored by means of thermocouples installed in predetermined locations connected to a data acquisition system. Global solar radiation data and the main climatic variables were recorded by the automatic weather station at the Centre for Water Resources and Environmental Studies (CRHEA), University of São Paulo (USP) in Itirapina-SP, where the study was conducted. The analysis of the thermal behavior was based on the spatial and temporal approaches of dynamic climatology to know the influence of weather fluctuations enabling the identification of climatic episodes and their impact on the temperature values obtained from the test platforms by means of charts and verified by synoptic maps and satellite imagery for the identification of the representative episode and choice of the typical experimental days. The results indicated that green roof showed better thermal performance compared to control coverage by having larger thermal lag between the upper and lower surfaces, the lower temperature range on surfaces and lower maximum temperatures than the maximum air temperature. It was concluded that for a hot, dry day, a layer of a dense vegetation cover influences the heat exchange process in the substrate layer by blocking a part of the solar radiation, the main factor that determines these processes, allowing the upper surface does not reach temperatures above the maximum daily air temperature and also that this temperature be registred with higher delay at the bottom surface.

The global continental carbon and water cycles are intimately linked through stomatal regulation during vegetation photosynthesis and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Therefore, to have a complete understanding of both present and future climate, these cycles must be studied as an interconnected system. This thesis presents three studies that aim to better explain these interactions and provide a direction forward for improved model projections of climate. The first study shows that biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks can contribute up to 30% of climate and weather variability in certain regions that help determine the net CO2 balance of the biosphere. It demonstrates that Earth System Models are under-estimating these contributions, mainly due to the underestimation of the biosphere response to radiation and water availability. It emphasizes the importance of correctly capturing these feedbacks in models for accurate subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions. The second demonstrates that changes in soil moisture (both short-term variability and long-term trends) strongly limit the ability of the continents to act as a carbon sink, with overall effects on the same order of magnitude as the land sink itself. Photosynthesis rates tend to be reduced when soil moisture is depleted, leading to decreased carbon uptake. Additionally, respiration rates increase due to increased temperature through land-atmosphere feedbacks. These carbon losses are not compensated for during wet anomalies due to the nonlinear response of vegetation activity (both respiration and photosynthesis) to soil moisture. This suggests that the increasing trend in carbon uptake rate may not be sustained past the middle of the century and could result in accelerated atmospheric CO2 growth. The third decouples the effects of atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit) and soil dryness on vegetation activity in the largest terrestrial carbon sink: the tropics. Understanding vegetation response to environmental drivers and stressors in the tropics is essential to accurately modeling these ecosystems and predicting whether they will remain carbon sinks in the future. The study finds that in regions that are water limited, vegetation is driven by precipitation and radiation while being limited by high vapor pressure deficit. Conversely, in the wettest regions that are light limited, increases in vapor pressure deficit accompany increasing rates of photosynthesis. These three studies contribute to our understanding of land-atmosphere and biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks and the coupling of the continental carbon and water cycles. They identify model process representations, such as soil moisture and vegetation water-stress, that are hindering our ability to make accurate forecasts. By improving our knowledge of these mechanisms and evaluating the ability of models to reproduce them, we pave the way forward for improved climate and weather projections. Better predictions can be used not only to protect society in the present, but also to appropriately shape climate policy to protect society in the future.

Résumé : Cette thèse vise à documenter les processus physiques et dynamiques associés à la circulation de mousson vietnamienne d'échelles régionale et synoptique, afin d'étudier la prévisibilité de ses principales composantes et de mettre en place des méthodes statisticodynamiques de prévision des pluies de l'échelle saisonnière à celle des événements. Elle s'articule en deux parties. La première partie est, en fait, une étude climatique fondée sur l'analyse diagnostique des données : - d'abord, les données stationnelles des pluies et des températures mensuelles sur la période 1960-2000 sont utilisées pour analyser le cycle moyen et la variabilité interannuelle de ces champs sur les sept régions climatiques traditionnelles du Vietnam, à l'aide des précipitations observées en diverses stations. Des classifications et des corrélations sont appliquées sur les données de pluies afin de définir les sous-régions sur lesquelles seront calculés des indices spatiaux pour analyser les chroniques d'évolution et définir les prédictants et prédicteurs pour la seconde partie ; - ensuite, les données atmosphériques de réanalyse du NCEP/DOE2 et les estimations pluviométriques du CMAP sur la période 1979-2004 en 2.5° x 2.5° sont utilisées pour décrire les processus de base, le cycle annuel moyen et la variabilité de la mousson dans la gamme des pas de temps synoptiques à interannuel. La seconde partie est une étude de prévisibilité des précipitations saisonnières : - les données de pluie in situ et le vent à 1 000 hPa sont utilisés pour définir l'onset de pluie sur le sud et nord Vietnam. Les dates d'onset sont prévues en se basant sur les indices régionaux qui sont sélectionnées à partir de données NCEP/DOE2 ; - la prévisibilité des cumuls saisonniers de pluies est enfin définie par la double utilisation de cinq modèles couplés du programme européen ENSEMBLES et par la prévision statistique.

Suite aux recommandations proposées par la communauté scientifique AMMA trois principaux objectifs étaient assignés à ce travail de recherche. Le premier était d'analyser les sorties directes des modèles de circulation générale de l'atmosphére utilisés dans le cadre du projet DEMETER. Le second était de proposer une nouvelle méthodologie de prévision des précipitations saisonnières au Sahel en utilisant les sorties directes des MCG les mieux simulées, c'est-à-dire celles relatives à la dynamique atmosphérique qui explique la pénétration de la mousson ouest africaine dans le continent, et, par conséquent, la pluie au Sahel pendant la saison de mousson d'été boréal. Le troisième objectif enfin, consistait à analyser et comparer les prévisions probabilistes issues du forum PRESAO et du projet ENSEMBLES. Pour répondre à ces objectifs, nous nous sommes appuyés sur 7 bases de données : 4 d'entre elles sont utilisées comme références (CRU, CMAP, réanalyses américaines -R1 et R2- et la TSM), les simulations (précipitations et dynamique atmosphérique) des projets européens DEMETER et ENSEMBLES et enfin les cartes numérisées du forum PRESAO. <br />Il est notamment démontré que <br />• L'approche statistico-dynamique permet d'améliorer nettement les scores obtenus directement à partir des pluies brutes des MCGs DEMETER puisqu'on atteint 40% de la variance totale expliquée (contre 10% pour DEMETER), les performances étant meilleures lorsque la dynamique atmosphérique simulée est utilisée.<br />• Le score du modèle moyen (MMEM) est très proche de ce que peut donner le meilleur MCG utilisé individuellement, cela quelle que soit la méthode utilisée (par indice ou par champs). Ceci montre qu'une approche multi-ensemble est plus performante qu'une approche multi-runs sur un modèle et que seule l'approche d'ensemble permet de retrouver dans les MCGs les téléconnexions responsables d'une bonne prévision de la pluie au Sahel.