From a theoretical point of view, competition for the educational resources at the family and the population levels may change as the demographic transition advances. Although family size started to decline in the mid-1960s in México, the reduction in the size of the cohorts that compete for educational resources has recently occurred and it is an ongoing process in most municipalities of the country. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to examine the relationship between teenagers’ education and the demographic transition in México. The study explored if the teenagers’ school enrollment, age-grade delay at school and lower-secondary school attainment were linked to the teenagers’ number of siblings, as well as their cohort size in the municipality of residence in 2000. The 10% sample of the Mexican Housing and Population Census of 2000 was used as the main source of information. The study employed multivariate logistic regression models to accomplish its goals. Interactions between number of siblings and cohort size were tested. Also, interactions between these indicators and the teenagers’ gender and socioeconomic status were assessed respectively. The results indicated that contextual factors explained the initial negative association between teenagers’ education and cohort size, since this association disappeared or became small and positive after the addition of covariates. The Mexican educational system seems to have had the capacity of absorbing the demands in school coverage of the growing teenage population. The study revealed, however, that there was a large and negative association between teenagers’ education and number of siblings. Moreover, the study showed that the odds of the educational outcomes generally experienced larger changes by each additional sibling in the places where the demographic transition is more advanced, as well as among females and among the teenagers with high socioeconomic status. These results suggest that the educational disadvantages associated with multiple siblings may become more pronounced in the future and within certain contexts, as the demographic transition continues and big families become a smaller proportion of Mexican families. / text

The first chapter assesses the impact of the cohort size on labour market outcomes. Using exogenous variation and micro-level data for France, the UK and the US, we study the effect of supply shocks measured at different ages on unemployment rates and wages during a cohort's life cycle. The results from an IV estimation show that the largest magnitude of the effects is found when the cohort size is measured at age 25. The impact of both wages and unemployment rates are temporary, however, both decreasing with time. The second chapter analyses the effects of large inflows of foreign students on English undergraduates. Our results confirm previous findings that there is no overall effect, but we identify changes in the distribution of natives. We find that top performing English students are crowded in by foreign students. It is also mainly English-born males, natives who do not have English as their mother tongue and those of Asian ethnic origins that are crowded in by foreign students. In chapter three, we aim to understand the short-term effects of changes in the level of the tuition fees charged by English universities on students' geographic mobility. Our results suggest that the increase in tuition fees in 2006/07 charged by English universities led students to enrol into universities that are closer to home, with a larger effect experienced by men and White students. Moreover, we find that students are less likely to move to universities located in rich areas.

My dissertation consists of three essays that study the college premium in China and how it has been affected by China’s higher education expansion. In the first essay, I utilize the high education expansion as exogenous source to estimate the college premium. The rapidly changing access to college provides a rare opportunity to estimate a local treatment effect (LATE) of college education on earnings by utilizing the drastic increase in college admission rate in 1999. I also utilize the yearly admission rate as an instrumental variable for the endogenous college education. Using China Household Income Project 2013, the two IV estimates of college premium are 75.7 and 57.5 log points respectively. The second essay examines the trends of the college earnings premium by age groups from 1995 to 2013 in China. Specifically, based on China Household Income Projects, the college premium for the younger group (age 25-34) stagnated, while the college premium for the older group (age 45-54) increased substantially. I attribute the stagnation for the younger group to the fast-growing relative supply of younger college workers due to China’s higher education expansion. Holding the age cohort and survey year constant, a one unit increase in log relative size of college workers leads to 10.3 log points decrease in college premium. The third essay further explores the channel through which the cohort size affects the college premium. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, I find that, for all survey years and age groups, the differential of the higher-skilled occupations share between college and non-college educated workers only explains a small part of college premium, 10%-30%. The part due to the higher-skilled occupational premium is negligible. Over 70% of the college premium is contributed by the college premium among the workers with lower-skilled occupations.

Many accountability systems use data from large-scale assessments to make judgements about school performance. In Ontario, school performance is often assessed using the percentage of proficient students (PPS). The purpose of this study was to shed light on the degree and frequency of changes from year to year in the percentage of proficient students, at a school, in the areas of reading, writing and mathematics for both grades 3 and 6 in Ontario from 2006 to 2010. A second purpose was to assess the influence of cohort size on the variability in scores from year to year. Once schools not having data for 5 consecutive years and outliers were omitted secondary data analysis was used to examine nearly 3000 schools in each subject and grade. For the first part of the study, descriptive statistics and frequencies were the main method of examination. In the second part of the study, variance scores and correlations were used in order to understand the relationship between changes in PPS and cohort size. Findings revealed that changes in school scores from year to year are very large for many schools. Approximately 50 percent of schools experienced changes in PPS greater than 10 percent in any given year. When examining how often, from 2006 to 2010, a school experienced a similar amount of change – generally, both the smallest and largest change categories had a larger percentage of schools experiencing a similar amount of change for two and three years. Very seldom did schools experience the same degree of change in PPS across all 5 years. Results from correlations revealed a significant and inverse relationship between average cohort size and variability in PPS. Considering over 80 percent of schools have 60 or fewer students in a cohort the unpredictability in PPS may prove to be quite frustrating to schools and confusing to stakeholders. Annual PPS scores appear to be a poor indicator of real school performance, and their use to rank or rate schools should be avoided. Recommendations are made about using PPS to report school level results for EQAO, schools and the public.

Many accountability systems use data from large-scale assessments to make judgements about school performance. In Ontario, school performance is often assessed using the percentage of proficient students (PPS). The purpose of this study was to shed light on the degree and frequency of changes from year to year in the percentage of proficient students, at a school, in the areas of reading, writing and mathematics for both grades 3 and 6 in Ontario from 2006 to 2010. A second purpose was to assess the influence of cohort size on the variability in scores from year to year. Once schools not having data for 5 consecutive years and outliers were omitted secondary data analysis was used to examine nearly 3000 schools in each subject and grade. For the first part of the study, descriptive statistics and frequencies were the main method of examination. In the second part of the study, variance scores and correlations were used in order to understand the relationship between changes in PPS and cohort size. Findings revealed that changes in school scores from year to year are very large for many schools. Approximately 50 percent of schools experienced changes in PPS greater than 10 percent in any given year. When examining how often, from 2006 to 2010, a school experienced a similar amount of change – generally, both the smallest and largest change categories had a larger percentage of schools experiencing a similar amount of change for two and three years. Very seldom did schools experience the same degree of change in PPS across all 5 years. Results from correlations revealed a significant and inverse relationship between average cohort size and variability in PPS. Considering over 80 percent of schools have 60 or fewer students in a cohort the unpredictability in PPS may prove to be quite frustrating to schools and confusing to stakeholders. Annual PPS scores appear to be a poor indicator of real school performance, and their use to rank or rate schools should be avoided. Recommendations are made about using PPS to report school level results for EQAO, schools and the public.