Human Trafficking involves the various forms of coercion and force against millions of individuals all over the world into situations of unpaid labor, sexual exploitation, and organ sales. Attention to the phenomenon is relatively new and there is complexity both in how to address it and study it. When looking at human trafficking, issues of development, poverty, immigration, gender, international cooperation, social stigma, among others, are considered. The purpose of this research paper is to compare and analyze local law interpretations of the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Especially Women and Children, supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, or just "the Palermo Protocol", in a sample of countries who have ratified the international agreement. The countries selected for analysis vary from each other in how they stand as dominant "origins" or "destinations" of human trafficking and how well they do in eradicating the problem as categorized by the United States Trafficking in Persons Report (US TIP Reports) "Tier" statuses. Through asking a set of questions of each law, trends are revealed. The study found that local law documents used many elements from the Palermo Protocol to frame their documents; there were fewer differences than expected. The major differences were in how laws were integrated into the existing legal framework or if a comprehensive separate act was defined. Implications and the role of morality politics and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are theorized. Many studies in this field are laden with ever changing statistics, very specific case studies, or material that speaks to how the situation is stigmatized. All contribute to deeper understanding, but by objectively looking at how the major international mechanism works at a local level we may inch towards learning more about how the issue continues to pervade globally.

As the People’s Republic of China continues its attempt to match the United States as a global hegemon, it has put forth significant efforts to build influence and gain the support of smaller countries around the globe utilizing both hard and soft power. However, the question remains whether these efforts have resulted in greater favorability toward China. This study seeks to answer this question. I use a Bayesian Item Response Theory (IRT) model to generate latent measures of Chinese hard and soft power around the globe using data on Chinese economic aid, alliances, diplomatic exchanges, and security assistance. This is coupled with voting data from the United Nations to determine the nature of the relationship between Chinese influence-building efforts and a nation’s affinity toward China. This research has both practical and theoretical implications. These findings can serve as a guide for policy makers by determining what has worked for China building in their sphere of influence. These findings will also speak more broadly to larger theoretical questions about how superpowers build and exert influence on and what is the impact of competition between great powers can also be drawn, specifically with the IRT latent model to quantify these impacts.

Populism has become prevalent worldwide as more politicians embrace it. My thesis aims to study the campaign promises of populists worldwide, regarding a reduction of immigration, and to see if they followed through on those promises. I focused on populists from Europe and the United States. A comparative analysis of Hungary, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Slovakia revealed that populist candidates who had promised closing borders or otherwise reduce immigration, did so, once elected. My research reveals different approaches, methods and strategies in border and migration control, across all countries studied.

In the past decade, numerous populist politicians have won elections across the globe, riding a wave of popularity rooted in simple, yet appealing rhetoric conveying anti-elite, othering, and isolationist messages. Existing literature suggests right-wing populists are associated with rhetoric that incorporates nationalism, and shuns supranational institutions or international treaties, while left-wing populists commonly use rhetoric that opposes globalization. The aim of my thesis is to test these claims, as well as to determine if populists (on theright or left) are more isolationist in their language than establishment parties. An issue within the literature is that it does not contain a detailed breakdown of the three categories in connection with the various parties. Right and left-wing populists’ rhetoric, thus, is not completely analyzed and understood. I address this gap in the literature through employing text-based analysis in my thesis. I do so by identifying and categorizing aspects of populist isolationist rhetoric, within manifestos and speeches. I examine the rhetoric of seventy-two parties and politicians from twenty-eight European countries and the United States to test my hypotheses. My text-based analysis reveals that left-wing populists show the most opposition to supranational institutions and affairs, while right-wing populists are most likely to utilize specific forms of rhetoric, targeting the European Union. Centrist populist parties emerge as supportive of supranational organizations and entities than any other populist party. I find that populists primarily discuss the European Union, NATO and globalization more so than they discuss entities like the United Nations, international law and international police forces (Interpol).

Given that conditional cash transfers (CCTs) can be a very effective social welfare program to reduce poverty and improve education and health outcomes, but may exacerbate conflict, this thesis addresses strategies for conflict-sensitive formulation and implementation of CCTs in Indonesia. This thesis raises the immediate need to address poverty in Indonesia and seeks to learn from the successes and challenges of other CCTs, such as those enacted in Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, and the Philippines. This thesis also looks into existing literature comparing the effectiveness of CCTs to other social protection programs (SPPs) and finds that CCT is one of the most effective (SPPs). Moreover, this thesis also explores the reasoning and conditioning factors as to how CCTs may reduce or exacerbate conflict, and finds that it can reduce conflict through the education channel (e.g. positive peer effect, reduction of time to spend doing other activities), employment channel (e.g. education leading to higher chances of getting employed), and the income substitution channel (cash benefits received would reduce incentives to engage in financially-motivated crimes). Nonetheless, this thesis also seeks to enhance the targeting mechanisms of CCTs to ensure that it does not exacerbate conflict. More specifically, this thesis concludes that Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), the CCT program in Indonesia, should employ a more centralized targeting to reduce opportunities for local elite capture in its 7,000 districts. Furthermore, this thesis proposes the creation of a more competitive system in electing which districts it works with by asking district heads to submit proposals outlining why and how PKH will work in their respective areas, which will hopefully motivate them to be more accountable and to reduce administrative costs.

Countries emerging out of armed conflicts face immense challenges in their efforts to build electoral democracies. Contrary to our intuition that elections can transform violent competition to peaceful political contests, past research suggests that holding post-conflict elections only increases the chance of renewed violence. Why are elections unable to build sustainable democracies as expected? In this dissertation, I examine the question by focusing on two levels of analysis. First, I study the effects of violence on political behavior of mass publics at the individual level using the World Values survey Dataset. I argue that citizens are more inclined to support undemocratic leaders, when they are faced with threats from armed violence. Empirically, I find that presence of pre-election violence in post-conflict elections leads voters to prefer parties that are stronger in terms of their violence-wielding capacities over more moderate and peaceful parties. Second, I investigate how such an outcome might influence the risk of renewed conflicts in a country emerging out of armed conflict. The hypothesized mechanism can only be described as tragic. At individual level, fearful voters support violent parties mainly to maintain the status quo, fearing that parties with a violent reputation are likely to renew conflict if they lose the election. Tragically, however, placing undemocratic and violent parties in power only increases the likelihood of renewed conflicts. I test this expectation using an event history model to analyze all post-conflict countries from 1950 to 2010 and find that the presence of pre-election violence in a country increases its risk of renewed armed conflicts. The study has important implication for policymakers and election monitoring bodies. Rather than the current practice of observing only a single event Election Day, this study emphasizes the importance of creating a secure environment during the pre-election phase, about six months prior to the first election, in order to achieve a sustainable peace in post-conflict countries.

Climate change presents a wide range of concerns that can jeopardize international security. Among those concerns are neo-Malthusian worries of diminishing natural resources. Predictive models suggest that rainfall and temperature anomalies have the potential to reduce water basins, crop production, increase land degradation among other perils that threaten human security. This concern is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa given the region’s strong dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Despite strong claims from various world leaders and scientists of a direct climate-conflict nexus, little empirical evidence has been devoted to find a systematic causal pathway of this kind. What is more, the literature not explored the relationship between climate change and low-intensity forms of social unrest. Therefore, contrary to most of the literature that explores a direct climate-conflict relationship, this dissertation contributes to the literature along two lines. First, it explores the relationship between climate change and socio-political unrest. Second, rather than simply assume a direct relationship between climate shocks and conflict, this dissertation examines: a) the effects of climate change on food scarcity, and the impact of that scarcity, in turn, on the likelihood of social unrest and conflict, and b) the effects of climate change on land degradation, that the impact of that degradation, in turn, on the frequency of communal violence.

Cette thèse porte sur les impacts réels et potentiels des partis de droite radicale (PDR) sur l'économie et évalue ces impacts - quantitativement et qualitativement - en considérant la politique économique et les performances économiques de 27 pays européens.Nous commençons par discuter les définitions de pdr (chapitre 1) et leur position sur les questions économiques (chapitre 2). Nous en déduisons une taxonomie des positions de ces partis sur les questions économiques et confirmons l'hétérogénéité entre les PDR sur ces questions. Le chapitre 3 résume la littérature sur les déterminants politiques de l'économie, dont nous tirons nos hypothèses. Le chapitre 4 teste ces hypothèses à l’aide d’économétrie sur des données de panel. Nous montrons que la présence de PDR semble avoir des effets sur l’économie mais différent en europe de l’est et de l’ouest. En europe de l'est, les scores électoraux des PDR, ainsi que leur inclusion dans une coalition au pouvoir sont significativement liés à l'augmentation des importations et de la diminution des exportations. En europe de l’ouest, leur inclusion dans une coalition au pouvoir est lié à l’accroissement de l'écart entre les taux de chômage de la main-d'oeuvre autochtone et étrangère.Afin de comprendre les mécanismes qui sous-tendent nos résultats, le chapitre 5 propose une contribution originale à l'approche néo-réaliste d'amable et palombarini (2005). Nous soutenons que la politique économique est le résultat de la régulation politique des conflits sociaux et illustrons notre point de vue avec l'étude de cas de la ligue du nord italienne. / This PhD Thesis discusses the actual and potential impacts of Radical Right Parties (RRPs) on the economy and assesses these impacts – quantitatively and qualitatively – by considering the economic policy and performances of 27 European countries.We start discussing the different definitions of RRPs (Chapter 1) and their position on economic issues (Chapter 2 We derive an original taxonomy of RRPs’ positions on economic matters confirming the heterogeneity between RRPs. In Chapter 3, we critically review the literature on the political determinants of the economy and identify three conceptualisations of the ‘political’ in neo-classical economics: opportunistic, partisan, and institutional models. Chapter 4 tests our main hypotheses by using a dynamic panel data model. Results show no significant and robust evidence in support of an impact on authoritarian (e.g. security) and populist (e.g. deficits) indicators. We find evidence in support of a nativist impact, different in Eastern and Western European countries. In Eastern Europe, RRPs’ electoral scores, as well as their inclusion in a ruling coalition, are a significant predictor of increased imports and decreased exports. In Western Europe, RRPs’ strength and presence in a ruling coalition are a significant predictor of increasing gap in unemployment rates between native and foreign workforce.In order to understand the mechanisms behind our results, Chapter 5 proposes an original contribution to Amable and Palombarini (2005)’s neo-realist approach. We argue that economic policy is the result of the political regulation of social conflict and illustrate our framework with the case study of the Italian Lega Nord.

As guerras civis começaram a ser estudadas quantitativamente há poucos anos, com número de publicações crescente na área. Os determinantes do início de guerra civil foram paulatinamente desvendados por meio de pesquisa empírica. Alguns resultados são de que elas ocorrem geralmente em países de baixa renda; em países que são dependentes da exportação de produtos naturais; que obtiveram sua independência há poucos anos; que tiveram conflitos recentes; cujas populações apresentam características etno-lingüísticas ou religiosas um pouco heterogêneas e polarizadas; que têm a presença de um regime ao mesmo tempo com peculiaridades autoritárias e democráticas e que apresenta instabilidade política; em países que se encontram em terrenos de difícil acesso, como áreas montanhosas ou florestas densas; dentre outros. Embora essas guerras ocorram geralmente em zonas rurais e as massas participantes são formadas particularmente por camponeses, em busca de melhores e mais dignas condições de vida, mesmo que conduzidos por líderes urbanos e instruídos, a academia não deu a devida atenção empírica a essas questões até o momento, apesar de tratá-las, em parte, numa literatura mais antiga e qualitativa. A proposta desta tese é abordar assuntos de natureza agrária analisados empiricamente, com o intuito de incluir os fatores agrários no conjunto dos determinantes de guerras civis com os quais a literatura já trabalha. Foram abordados temas relevantes relacionados às questões agrárias para verificar se são determinantes de guerra civil. Entre eles, o papel da demografia rural e da concentração de terra, o nível de produtividade no campo, além do tipo de camponês. Ao final, foram encontrados resultados estatísticos relevantes que endossam os fatores agrários como parte do composto que levaria ao início da guerra civil. Mesmo que a concentração de terra não tenha sido efetivamente comprovada como determinante para que guerras civis ocorram, os outros três fatores agrários confirmaram-se como determinantes desse evento, em conjunto com os outros fatores que a literatura aborda. Não se podem ignorar fatores agrários na ocorrência de guerras civis se estas eclodem em zonas rurais, têm os camponeses como os principais participantes nas massas rebeldes, e suas adesões à luta armada originam-se das questões agrárias não resolvidas. / The quantitative study of civil wars started few years ago, with an increasing number of publications in that field. The determinants of civil wars? onset were built gradually by empirical research. Some of their results show that they occur in: poor and developing states; dependent natural resources export countries; young states; countries with recent conflicts, states with a small heterogeneous population, polarized or dominant; places where the political regime is hybrid and politically unstable; terrain of difficult access, with lots of mountains or dense forests; etc. Despite these wars occur at large in rural regions where the peasants are the main actors looking for a better and dignified life, even if their leaders are urban and educated individuals, the scholars did not deserve the appropriated empirical and quantitative attention to agrarian issues, as they do with other mentioned civil war determinants. This thesis proposal approaches the agrarian themes quantitatively, with the aim to include the agrarian indicator within the civil wars? determinants. The relevant questions whose will be dealt are: which kind of peasants participate in civil wars? Which tasks have the concentration of land, the rural demography, and the level of agricultural productivity to the civil war onset? At the end, the statistical results are relevant and they have confirmed the agrarian indicator as part of the determinants of civil wars? onset. Even if the concentration of land did not achieve the expected outcome, mainly because of data problems than due to variables? relationship, the other determinants were pertinent and suitable.

Os partidos latino-americanos são muito diversos e poucos estudos se ocupam da comparação de suas organizações. Este estudo analisa e classifica a organização interna dos partidos políticos latino-americanos, comparando o conteúdo de 42 estatutos partidários distribuídos nos 18 países democráticos da região. A comparação ocorre a partir do uso do método comparado e da identificação da ausência e/ou presença de determinados conteúdos em suas cartas orgânicas, de modo a mapear sua organização e possibilitar a construção de uma escala de pertencimentos das agremiações no quesito organizacional. A visão predominante sobre a região aponta para um caso de subdesenvolvimento partidário, no qual as agremiações são descritas como dotadas de organizações internas frágeis e em muitos casos inexistentes. Este trabalho não compartilha este posicionamento e argumenta que a América Latina apresenta um amplo espectro partidário em que convive dotadas de diferentes graus de organização. De modo a solucionar esta questão optamos por focar a análise em suas características organizacionais de modo a compreender os diferentes padrões exibidos em um estudo mais descritivo. Como premissa básica, partimos do princípio que os partidos políticos são, antes de tudo, organizações, as quais refletem as escolhas e objetivos de seus membros em um ambiente limitado. Como resultados, encontramos os seguintes: 1) o cenário partidário encontrado não é tão negativo quanto o exposto pela bibliografia sobre a região; 2) a região exibe um rico cenário, que reflete as diferentes estratégias das agremiações latino-americanas; 3) a ideologia e o tipo originário exercem grande influência sobre a determinação do desenho organizacional e; 4) as regulamentações a que os partidos estão sujeitos definem os limites das organizações. / Latin american parties are very diverse and few studies show a comparison of their organization. This study analyzes and classifies the internal organization of 42 Latin American political parties distributed in 18 democratic countries, comparing the content of their statutes. Using the comparative method we pointed the absence and / or presence of certain contents in the party organic charts, in order to map their organization and build a scale of affiliation to the organization. The predominant view describes an underdevelopment of the parties in Latin America, with a fragile association to internal organizations, that is even absent in many cases. This thesis does not share this position and sustain that Latin America has a broad partisan spectrum, which coexists with different degrees of organization. In order to solve this question and understand the different patterns exhibited, we focused the analysis on its organizational aspects, using a descriptive approach. As a basic premise, we assume that political parties are, above all, organizations, and it reflects the choices and goals of their members in a limited environment. The following results were found: 1) the party scenario found is not as negative as exposed by previous works about that region; 2) the region presents a rich scenario, which reflects the different strategies of Latin American associations; 3) ideology and the original type of party exert great influence on the determination of organizational design and; 4) the regulations to which the parties are subjected define the boundaries of organizations.