Submitted by PPG Economia do desenvolvimento (economia-pg@pucrs.br) on 2018-06-05T22:20:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PAULO_HENRIQUE_DE_OLIVEIRA_HOECKEL_TES.pdf: 1743443 bytes, checksum: 53a162bdfe6ee1a8a1c5bb980fe0186f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Sheila Dias (sheila.dias@pucrs.br) on 2018-06-13T12:59:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PAULO_HENRIQUE_DE_OLIVEIRA_HOECKEL_TES.pdf: 1743443 bytes, checksum: 53a162bdfe6ee1a8a1c5bb980fe0186f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-13T13:11:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PAULO_HENRIQUE_DE_OLIVEIRA_HOECKEL_TES.pdf: 1743443 bytes, checksum: 53a162bdfe6ee1a8a1c5bb980fe0186f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-26 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / This doctoral dissertation presents three essays to analyze the ethanol market. At first, the aim is to specify and estimate simultaneously supply and demand equations for the Brazilian ethanol market from January 2012 to December 2016, using two-stage least squares (2SLS). The main results show that the response to variations in supply and demand is elastic for Brazil, and the response in the ethanol market to price changes is in favor of the supply. At the regional level it was found that in regions with higher production and consumption the response to changes in the price of ethanol is less elastic. The second essay aims to develop a synthesis of the world ethanol market, considering the United States and Brazil, using caloric equivalence, to empirically identify supply and demand elasticities, as well as evaluate the relation of world production to prices of agricultural commodities (wheat, rice, maize, soy and sugar) for the period from 1981 to 2016, using as instrumental variables yield shocks induced by the climate. The main results for the world market indicate an elastic response of ethanol production and demand to changes in prices. The world production of ethanol had no significant relation with food prices, but when assessing the ethanol market and its interaction with the agricultural commodities market, the hypothesis that Brazilian ethanol has a lower magnitude relation with the price of food is verified. Finally, the third essay assesses the impacts of the international trade of ethanol, simulating new scenarios based on the discussions proposed in the literature and projections for the sector, performing the calibration of a partial equilibrium model formulated as a Mixed Complementarity Problem. The main results show that in a scenario of increased production or consumption in the Brazilian market it has a greater impact on international trade favorable to Brazilian producers and consumers when they occur together with a change in the commercial policy of removal of the import tariff to Brazilian ethanol by part of the US and the imposition of import tariff by Brazil. After the tariff change, production in Brazil has a significant increase, with a decrease in the share of domestic demand supplied by the foreign market. / Esta tese apresenta tr?s ensaios para analisar o mercado de etanol. O primeiro ensaio busca especificar e estimar simultaneamente equa??es de oferta e de demanda para o mercado de etanol brasileiro de janeiro de 2012 a dezembro de 2016, utilizando M?nimos Quadrados em dois est?gios (MQ2E). Os principais resultados mostram que a resposta a varia??es na oferta e na demanda s?o el?sticas para o Brasil, sendo que a resposta no mercado de etanol a varia??es nos pre?os se d? no lado da oferta. A n?vel regional verificou-se que em regi?es com maior produ??o e consumo a resposta a varia??es no pre?o do etanol ? menos el?stica. O segundo ensaio procura desenvolver uma sintetiza??o do mercado mundial de etanol, considerando os Estados Unidos (EUA) e o Brasil, utilizando a equival?ncia cal?rica, para identificar empiricamente as elasticidades de oferta e de demanda, assim como avaliar a rela??o da produ??o mundial com os pre?os das commodities agr?colas (trigo, arroz, milho, soja e a??car), para o per?odo de 1981 a 2016, usando como vari?veis instrumentais choques de rendimentos induzidos pelo clima. Os principais resultados para o mercado mundial indicam uma resposta el?stica da produ??o e da demanda de etanol a varia??es nos pre?os. A produ??o mundial de etanol n?o teve rela??o significativa com os pre?os dos alimentos, por?m ao avaliar o mercado de etanol e sua intera??o com o mercado de commodities agr?colas a hip?tese de que o etanol brasileiro possui uma rela??o de menor magnitude com o pre?o dos alimentos ? verificada. Por fim, o terceiro ensaio avalia quais s?o os impactos no com?rcio internacional de etanol, simulando novos cen?rios com base nas discuss?es propostas na literatura e em proje??es para o setor, realizando a calibra??o de um modelo de equil?brio parcial, formulado como um Problema de Complementaridade Mista (PCM). Os principais resultados mostram que em um cen?rio de aumento da produ??o ou de consumo no mercado brasileiro tem um impacto maior no com?rcio internacional, favor?veis aos produtores e consumidores do Brasil, quando ocorrem conjuntamente com mudan?a na pol?tica comercial de remo??o da tarifa de importa??o ao etanol brasileiro por parte dos EUA e a imposi??o de tarifa de importa??o pelo Brasil. Ap?s a mudan?a tarif?ria, a produ??o no Brasil tem aumento significo, com diminui??o da parcela da demanda interna suprida pelo mercado externo.