This thesis encompasses three essays around criminal behaviour with the first one analysing the impact of programmes aimed at poverty reduction, the second one developing a theoretical model of hysteresis in crime, and the third one empirically investigating the hysteresis hypothesis in crime rates. In the first chapter I investigate the impact of conditional cash transfers (CCT) on crime rates by analysing the Brazilian Bolsa Familia, the largest CCT programme in the world, in a panel data between 2001 and 2008. The related existing economic literature analysing general welfare programmes usually ignores the crucial endogeneity involved in the relationship between crime rates and social welfare policies through poverty, since poorer regions are focused in the distribution of resources. I use the existing temporal heterogeneity in the implementation of the programme across the states to identify the causal impact of CCT programmes on poverty and criminality. The guidelines of the Brazilian programme established that the amount of resources available for each state should be based on the poverty levels in the 2000 Census. However, due to reasons unrelated to poverty levels and crime rates, some states were able to implement the programme to a greater extent more quickly than others. States that reached the level of cash transfer expenditures proposed by the guidelines of the programme more promptly had a more significant reduction in poverty rates. Similar but less robust results are found for crime rates as robbery, theft and kidnapping, while no significant effects were found for homicide and murder, indicating a weak or non-existent relationship between conditional cash transfers and crime. I also develop, to my knowledge, the first theoretical model to explicitly account for hysteresis - a situation where positive exogenous variations in the relevant economic variables have a different effect from negative variations - in both criminal behaviour and crime rates in order to fill the gap between the theoretical predictions and the empirical evidence about the efficiency of policies in reducing crime rates. The majority of the theoretical analyses predict a sharp decrease in crime rates when there are significant improvements in the economic conditions or an increase in the probability of punishment. However, the existing empirical studies have found lower than expected effects on crime rates from variations in variables related to those factors. One important consequence of hysteresis is that the effect on an outcome variable from positive exogenous variations in the determining variables has a different magnitude from negative variations. For example, if hysteresis is present in the criminal behaviour and part of the police force in a city are dismissed in a given year, resulting in an escalation in crime, a reversal of the policy in the following year by readmitting all sacked police officers in an attempt to restore the original crime levels will result in lower crime rates, but higher than the original ones, yielding an asymmetric relationship between police and crime. Hysteresis is considered in a simple framework to model illicit behaviour. At the individual level, if criminal activity is associated with intrinsic sunk costs and learning, then the cost of leaving a criminal career is higher than entering it. At the aggregate level with homogeneous agents, this is translated into a hysteresis effect that will only occur if a specific threshold is surpassed. With heterogeneous agents, this phenomenon is reinforced generating a hysteresis effect that exists for all possible values of the variable affecting the crime decision. There are multiple equilibria at both levels. In the last chapter I empirically investigate the existence of hysteresis in crime rates. To my knowledge, this is the first empirical study to consider the existence of asymmetric effects on crime from variations in the probability of punishment and in the opportunity cost of crime. More specifically, I investigate whether positive variations on variables associated to those factors, respectively police officers and average level of income, are statistically different from negative variations. Using US crime data at the state level between 1977 and 2010, I find that police force size and real average income of unskilled workers have asymmetric effects on most types of crimes. The absolute value of the average impact of positive variations in those variables on property and violent crime rates are statistically smaller than the absolute value of the average effect of negative variations. These effects are robust under several specifications. A closer inspection of the data reveals a relatively monotonic negative relationship between wages and property crime rates, as well as negative variations in police and most crime rates. However, the relationships between positive variations in law enforcement size and most crime rates are non-linear. The magnitude of the observed asymmetries supports the hypothesis of hysteresis in crime, and suggests that no theoretical or empirical analysis would be complete without careful consideration of that important feature in the relationships between crime, police and legal income. These results corroborate the argument that policy makers should be more inclined to set pre-emptive policies rather than mitigating measures.

No description available.

[pt] Esse artigo realiza um estudo dos efeitos do Programa Bolsa Escola Federal sobre as despesas das famílias. A base de dados utilizada foi a Pesquisa dos Orçamentos Familiares (POF), que por tratar de forma detalhada das despesas das famílias e por fornecer o valor recebido pelas famílias do Programa Bolsa Escola Federal, propicia uma excelente oportunidade de responder a questão referente ao destino do dinheiro recebido do programa. O principal resultado é que famílias que recebem a bolsa do Programa Bolsa Escola tendem a gastar mais em alimentos e não reduzem seus gastos em educação. / [en] This article studies the effects of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program, the Bolsa Escola Federal, on household expenditures. The dataset used was a survey of household budgets (Pesquisa dos Orçamentos Familiares), which, in providing detailed information regarding family expenditures and the value households received through the Bolsa Escola Federal Program, offers an excellent opportunity to answer the question concerning the destination of the money received through the program. The main result of the article is that households receiving the grant from the program tend to spend more on food and do not reduce their expenditures on education.

Social assistance programmes (SAPs), understood as non-contributory transfers aimed at ad-dressing poverty, have spread in developing countries since the late 1990s. National govern-ments in Latin America have sought to extend the coverage of SAPs through human devel-opment conditional cash transfer programmes (CCTs). CCTs share several implementation features. First, they employ targeting and selection methods based on means, and proxy means, tests. Research on targeting and selection methods has evolved hand in hand with the adoption of CCTs in Latin America, Africa and South East Asia. Second, CCTs involve the provision of cash transfers directly to households, but with conditions attached to human development objectives. Transfers are given to households in poverty contingent on investment in the human capital formation of their children. A third feature relates to the presence of programme exit conditions. To date, scarce research is available on the design and outcomes associated with exit condi-tions from CCTs. This thesis thus contributes to the literature in the implementation of SAPs by providing a critical examination of exit conditions in SAPs with specific emphasis on CCTs. The thesis provides a systematic theoretical and empirical analysis of the role of exit conditions in the implementation of CCTs. The thesis develops and tests two basic principles underlying the role of exit conditions. First, the exhausted-effectiveness principle suggests that the effectiveness of a CCT varies over time. The research reported in this examines the effectiveness of programme over time with the aim of identifying potential thresholds after which a given SAP's effectiveness de-clines. A two-period child human capital investment model is developed to study analytically the conditions in which programme effectiveness varies over time. This is examined empirically in order to demonstrate the existence of the time-varying effectiveness associated with the implementation of the Colombia's CCT, Familias en Accion. A continuous treatment effect model is estimated following Hirano and Imbens (2004), in which the length of exposure allows for the graphical analysis of dose-response functions. The results indicate that the design of SAPs must take account of time-varying effectiveness. Second, a principle of the non-recurrence of poverty states that beneficiaries should be able to exit an effective programme when two conditions apply: (i) they are not in poverty; and (ii) they face a low probability of becoming poor in the near future. This principle acknowledges the implications of poverty dynamics for the implementation of SAPs with a particular focus on exit conditions. This thesis characterises the poverty dynamics of beneficiary households through the estimation of a Markovian poverty transition model using data from the Familias en Accion programme. The findings from the empirical work suggest that programme participation should not end when households are non-poor, but attention must be paid to probabilities of recurrence, in order to secure non-recurrence in the near future. Taken together, the exhausted-effectiveness principle interacts with the non-recurrence of poverty principle in the sense that the first sets a maximum length of exposure to the intervention, while the second determines minimum levels of exposure.

<p>The Global South, and particularly Latin America, experienced a remarkable expansion in conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in the last fifteen years. Although a large literature examines the effects of CCTs on human development, the political behavioral consequences remain underexplored. In the dissertation, I address this gap by analyzing the effects of CCTs on political participation and policy. I also explore the implications of these effects for human development. </p><p>My central argument is that CCTs increase political participation among beneficiaries, and both program transfers and conditionalities contribute to these positive effects. More specifically, CCTs provide beneficiaries with politically relevant resources, including civic skills and access to state officials and community leaders. These resources reduce the costs of political participation and facilitate more involvement in political activities, particularly in more demanding forms of participation. In addition, I argue that CCTs increase the private provision of local services and influence the outcomes of some non-national elections. </p><p>To test this argument, I use four main sources of data: (1) existing survey data from Latin America in 2012; (2) original survey data from Mexico in 2014; (3) experimental data from Mexico in 1998-2000; and (4) in-depth interviews and focus groups from Mexico in 2012. Multilevel models and linear regression models are used to estimate the effects of CCTs on political behavior and service provision. The in-depth interviews and focus groups help to unravel more of the causal mechanism that connects CCTs to political participation. </p><p>The evidence largely supports my argument. I find that CCTs increase participation in a wide variety of political activities, including electoral and non-electoral activities. In addition, the pathways to increased participation include improved civic skills and increased access to state officials and local leaders. Moreover, CCTs increase the private provision of sewerage services.</p><p>I conclude that CCTs have both desirable and undesirable consequences. On the one hand, CCTs increase democratic political participation, improve civic skills, reduce the distance between beneficiaries and government officials, and increase access to local services. The increased access to sewerage services creates an indirect pathway to improved human development outcomes. On the other hand, CCTs reduce the pressure on local officials to provide local services, and in some contexts contribute to electoral rewards for undeserving incumbent parties.</p> / Dissertation

Economics

Background: While substantial progress has been made globally towards achieving United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) on child mortality, the decline is not sufficient to reach the targets set for 2015. The South Asian region, which includes India, was to achieve the MDG 4 target of 39 deaths per 1000 live births by 2015 but was estimated to have reached only 61 by 2011. A part of this under-achievement is due to the gender-differentials in child mortality in South-Asia. The inherent biological advantage of girls, reflected inlower mortality rates as compared to boys globally, is neutralized by their sociocultural disadvantage in India. The availability of technology for prenatal sex determination has promoted sex-linked abortions. Current government efforts include a law that regulates the use of ultrasound and other diagnostic techniquesfor prenatal testing of sex and a conditional cash transfer (CCT) scheme thatinvests a certain amount of funds at the birth of a girl child to attain maturity when the girl turns 18 years of age. This thesis describes the trends in genderspecific mortality during the period 1992-2011 and gender differentials in causes of death among children (paper I), compares gender differentials in child survivalby socio-economic status of the family (paper II), explores the contribution of non-specific effects of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccination to the excess mortality among girls (paper III), and evaluates the impact of CCT schemes of the government and explores community attitudes and practices related to discrimination of girls (paper IV). Methods and Results: This study is set in Ballabgarh Health and DemographicSurveillance System (HDSS) of Haryana State in North India that covered a population of 88,861 across 28 villages in 2011. This study uses the electronic database that houses all individuals enumerated in the HDSS for the period 1992-2011 along with other demographic, socio-economic and health utilization variables. Sex ratio at birth (SRB) was adverse for girls throughout the study period, varying between 821 to 866 girls per 1000 boys. Overall, under-five mortality rates during the period 1992-2011 remained stagnant due to the increasing neonatal mortality rate and decreasing mortality in subsequent age groups. Mortality rates among girls were 1.6 to 2 times higher than boys during the post-neonatal period (1-11 months) as well as in the 1-4 year age group. Girls reported significantly higher mortality rates due to prematurity (relative risk of 1.52; 95% CI = 1.01-2.29); diarrhoea (2.29;1.59-3.29), and malnutrition (3.37; 2.05-5.53) during 2002-2007. The SRB and neonatal mortality rate were consistently adverse for girls in the advantaged groups. In the 1-36 month age group, girl children had higher mortality than boys in all SES groups. The age at vaccination for and coverage with ivabstractBacillus Calmette–Guérin, DTP, polio and measles vaccines did not differ by sex. There was significant excess mortality among girls as compared to boys in the period after immunization with DTP, for both primary (hazard ratio of 1.65; 95% CI 1.17-2.32) and DTPb (2.21; 1.24-3.93) vaccinations until the receipt of the next vaccine. No significant excess mortality among girls was noted after exposure to BCG (1.06; 0.67-1.67) or measles (1.34; 0.85-2.12) vaccine. A community survey showed poor awareness of specific government schemes for girl children. Four-fifths of the community wanted government to help families with girl children financially. In-depth interviews of government programme implementers revealed the themes of “conspiracy of silence” that was being maintained by general population, underplaying of the pervasiveness of the problem coupled with a passive implementation of the programme and “a clash between politicians trying to cash in on the public sentiment of need for subsidies for girl children and a bureaucratic approachof accountability which imposed lot of conditionalities and documentations to access these benefits”. While there has been some improvement in investment in girl children for immunization and education during the period 1992 to 2010, these were also seen among boys of the same houses and daughters in-laws who come from outside the state where such schemes are not in place. Conclusions: In the study area, girl children continue to be disadvantaged a tall periods in their childhood including in utero. In the short run, empowerment of individuals by education and increasing wealth without a concomitant change in culture of son-preference is harmful as it promotes the use of sex determination technology and female feticide to achieve desired family size and composition. There is a need to carefully review the use of health-enhancing technologies including vaccines so that they do not cause more harm to society. Current government efforts to address the gender imbalance are not working, as these are not rooted in a larger social context.

This study examines the relationship between reception of remittances and CCT participation. Three hypotheses, predicting a negative relationship between remittances and CCTs, are presented. These are tested by logit regressions based on data from national household surveys from four Latin American countries. The study finds some support for a negative correlation between remittances and CCT participation, but lack of data restricts the possibility of drawing firm conclusions from the study.

No description available.

My thesis explores the conceptual underpinnings of the acclaimed Mexican conditional cash transfer (CCT) program Oportunidades as a way of engaging broader debates about how anti-poverty policy is evolving in the wake of the World Bank’s mid-1990s legitimacy crisis. I am interested in the behaviours and attitudes—or “subjectivities”—that Oportunidades attempts to cultivate amongst participants. Whereas the majority of CCT studies tend to focus on measuring the extent to which the programs “mold” beneficiaries into the categories of being prescribed by the program, my thesis is concerned with specifying and critically examining these categories. I use a hybrid neo-Gramscian, governmentality and critical feminist theoretical framework to probe how Oportunidades beneficiaries are constructed within World Bank and Mexican government discourse, as well as in external program evaluations. I argue that Oportunidades is underpinned by an agent-centred conception of poverty and that the program promotes a kind of gendered market-conducive subjectivity amongst beneficiaries. I conclude by exploring some of the implications of the CCT model. Ma thèse explore les fondements conceptuels du Oportunidades, un programme de transferts conditionnels de fonds (TMC) Mexicain acclamé. J’utilise les TMC comme une ouverture pour élargir le débat sur la manière dont la politique anti-pauvreté évolue dans le sillage de la crise de légitimité à laquelle la Banque Mondiale a fait face dans le milieu des années 1990. Je m'intéresse aux types de comportements et d'attitudes—ou «subjectivités»—que Oportunidades essaye de cultiver chez les participants. Alors que la majorité des études sur les TMC focalisent sur l’évaluation des succès du programme à modeler les participants afin qu’ils entrent dans les catégories de personnes prescrites par le programme, mon but est la spécification et l'examen critique de ces catégories. J'utilise un cadre théorique hybride qui combine néo-gramsciennes, la gouvernementalité et des théories féministes critiques pour enquêter sur la façon dont les bénéficiaires du programme Oportunidades sont construits à l’intérieur du discours de la Banque Mondiale, du gouvernement mexicain, ainsi que dans les évaluations externes du programme. Je soutiens qu’il y a, dans le programme Oportunidades, une conception sous-entendu de la pauvreté centrée sur les comportements des individus et que le programme promeut une subjectivité sexuée des bénéficiaires qui facilite leur participation au marché. Je conclus en explorant quelques implications du modèle TMC.