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‘Sons of the soil’ conflicts seldom intensify above a low level of intrastate violence. Although frequent, they tend to remain small in scale, which has contributed to a lack of scholarly understanding about why some Sons of the soil conflict yet intensify more than others. Taking the role of the state into account, this study aims to investigate the causes for intensification in these conflicts. With a neoclassical realist approach, domestic factors behind the causal process of conflict intensification are unearthed, thereby investigating further the action-formation of the government threat perception. It leads the study to test the following hypothesis: A Sons of the soil conflict is more likely to intensify if the government misperceives the threat the conflict constitutes. Through a comparative process tracing analysis of Sons of the soil conflict intensity in Mali and Niger, 2006-2012, findings suggest that certain domestic factors at the state level cause a significant variation in the outcome. Actual low threats of Sons of the soil conflict may in fact be intensified due to state misperceptions.

What is the impact of civil society on rebel governance? The field of rebel governance has gained increased attention recently, but few researchers highlight the interactive relationship between rebels and local communities. As the principal organisational tool for civilian populations, civil society has been largely overlooked. In this thesis I present a theoretical argument that rebels are likely to cooperate with civil society in establishing governance institutions. Civil society will utilise its expertise, legitimacy, and mobilisation capacity to pressure the rebels to commit to governance, as well as to aid them in this effort. I test this theory by conducting a quantitative study using zero-inflated negative binomial models with data from VDEM and RQSI, with 4800 observations of conflict-years between 1946 and 2012. I find that civil society has a positive relationship with the scope of rebel governance, but only if initial institutions are present. When none are present, civil society decreases the likelihood of new institutions being established. It has become increasingly clear that local civilian actors have agency and can significantly affect the decisions made by rebels. Understanding the effect of civil society helps us to deeper understand this dynamic and helps explain why and how rebels decide to govern.

Utilizzando un modello ZTNB, questa analisi verifica empiricamente come la presenza di oro, pietre preziose, droghe e idrocarburi possa interagire con l'intensità di un conflitto civile. Si propone un'analisi disaggregata a livello spaziale che permette di esplorare la presenza di tali risorse naturali all'interno delle zone coinvolte da conflitti. I dati sui depositi di oro sono stati estratti da un dataset originale che codifica la presenza globale della risorsa attraverso coordinate geografiche. I risultati ottenuti suggeriscono che le produzioni di oro, pietre preziose e idrocarburi tendono ad aumentare la durata del conflitto così come la sua intensità, mentre la coltivazione di droghe riduce il numero totale di morti. I risultati sono considerevolmente distorti quando la presenza di risorse naturali è codificata a livello paese e non più a livello delle aree di conflitto, a conferma della validità dell'approccio disaggregato applicato. Il risultato generale è che la collocazione e la tipologia delle risorse sono elementi fondamentali per definire l'impatto sull'intensità dei conflitti, poiché l'essere depredabili ed effettivamente accessibili può determinare in quale misura i ricavi delle stesse risorse possano essere deviati a sostegno dei costi militari o a fini privati. Infine, questa analisi conferma che la disponibilità di risorse naturali influenza l'intensità di un conflitto civile modificando gli incentivi dei combattenti, e che le tipologie di risorse e la loro posizione geografica sono elementi critici nel determinare la violenza dei conflitti. / By using a ZTNB model, this analysis empirically tests whether the presence of gold, gemstones, drugs and hydrocarbons interact with civil conflict intensity. I propose a spatially disaggregated analysis which allows to explore the presence of such natural resources within the zones involved by conflicts. Data on gold deposits are extracted from an original dataset which codes the global presence of gold resource through geographic coordinates. The results obtained suggest that gold, gemstones and hydrocarbons productions tend to increase conflict duration as well as its intensity, whereas drug cultivation reduces the number of total conflict deaths. Conversely, the outcomes are seriously affected when I shift natural resources variables from conflict level data to country level data, confirming the validity of the spatially disaggregated approach applied. The general finding is that the location and type of resources are crucial to define their impact on conflict intensity, since their lootability and accessibility can largely determine to what extent natural resource revenues can be diverted and misused during wartime. Above all, this analysis confirms that the availability of natural resources affects civil conflict intensity by altering fighters incentives, and that resources types and geographical location matter in determining conflict violence.

The influence of private actors within armed conflict is becoming increasingly relevant, as the market for private military and security companies (PMSC’s) is growing in tandem with new opportunities within the sector. Their involvement in many conflicts around the world suggest the demand for private actors is not likely to go away any time soon, as their professional approach to offering an advantage in settling conflicts might appeal to many contracting parties. Despite this however, there exists relatively little research on the influence of PMSCs on armed conflict dynamics. This study aims to investigate how PMSCs might decide to involve themselves in state-based armed conflicts in weak states and how these in turn would influence the overall intensity of that conflict. This thesis provides a causal explanation which suggests that conflicts where PMSCs provide direct combat support have higher levels of conflict intensity in terms of an increased number of battle-related deaths than those where PMSC involvement is limited to non-combat/assisting roles. This is motivated by a theoretical framework which suggests direct combat involvement leads to a higher number of battle-related deaths. The quantitative study includes a number of control variables which have previously been used in studies on conflict dynamics in terms of the onset of armed conflict, conflict duration and with theoretical frameworks applicable to conflict intensity. The quantitative section of the thesis involves a regression analysis which ultimately does not provide significant results for the proposed hypothesis. Lastly, some considerations are made for future research that could potentially improve the reliability and accuracy of studies that intend to incorporate private actors and their influence on conflict dynamics.

How does the prevalence of female combatants in a rebel group influence conflict severity? Previous research has investigated the impact conflict has on women but has overlooked women’s contributions to conflict. Diverging from this paradigm, recent quantitative research has investigated why women join rebellions, why rebel groups recruit them, and how this affects conflict dynamics and outcomes. This study contributes to this new direction by asking how the gender composition of a rebel group influences the number of battle deaths amassed during a conflict. I hypothesize that a higher prevalence of female combatants in a rebel group increases conflict severity. I argue that female combatants increase rebel group capabilities, creating parity between rebel-state dyads, which then produces a greater quantity of battle deaths. Using a dataset on women’s prevalence in 211 rebel groups between 1989 and 2014, I run an ordinary least squares regression model to test my hypothesis. This study’s empirical evidence shows support for my hypothesis but does not yield any substantive indication of how female combatants contribute to severity. The causal mechanism behind this relationship remains for future research to uncover.

Non-UN peace operations are becoming an increasingly important conflict mitigating tool. Whilst many studies find these operations unable to mitigate conflict and promote peace, the explanations for these findings mainly focus on material aspects like mission size and peacekeepers’ capability. In order to better understand the discrepancies between UN and non-UN peace operations’ success, this thesis argues that UN operations might be more efficient due to higher perceived legitimacy. In order to analyze whether the superior legitimacy of the UN explains their higher ability to mitigate conflict, this study analyzes whether non- UN peace operations authorized by the UN are more able to mitigate conflict than non-authorized peace operations. The argument is tested by applying an OLS regression to a data frame including all intrastate conflicts between 1993 and 2016 to study the covariation between conflict intensity and the presence of UN authorized and non-authorized peace operations. The results do not support the hypothesis that UN authorization increases non-UN peace operations’ conflict mitigating abilities. This suggests that material factors might better explain peace operations’ success or that UN authorization does not substantially increase the perceived legitimacy of non-UN peace operations.