Clearly established conservation priorities are urgently required for taxa and ecosystems in critical need of conservation. This helps to identify and document taxa most in need of conservation attention, and provides an index of the state of degeneration of biodiversity. Including as much relevant information as possible in a prioritisation assessment will deliver the most accurate classification, yet these variables should not overly complicate the prioritisation process. Conservation assessments depend not just on the taxon’s susceptibility to threat (i.e. risk of extinction, or Red List assessments), but also the conservation value, irreplaceability and nature and intensity of the threats. Research into the value and applicability of conservation prioritisation tools at a regional scale, allowed for the assessment of the extinction risk as well as subsequent priority ranking of South African mammals. At the outset research was directed towards investigating South African mammals in accordance with their respective regional and global World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List and Red Data Book assessments. The regional Red List assessment drastically improved local knowledge of the current extinction risk of various mammals, and identified 57 marine and terrestrial mammals to be highly threatened. Up to date regional extinction risk assessments, allowed for the investigation of whether a human activity threat index derived from six human activity variables across South Africa could be used to highlight mammals threatened with extinction while also being exposed to high human activity. Evidence indicated various threatened and lower risk mammals were exposed to high human activity throughout their range, pointing to high potential threat and future increase in extinction risk. For relevant prioritisation to take place, components of vulnerability (IUCN Red List assessments, and occupancy data), irreplaceability (endemism and taxonomic distinctiveness), and threat measures (body mass and human density in a taxa distributional range) was introduced into relational priority assessment which allowed for a simplified approach in determining conservation priorities for taxa under various region-specific conditions. The use of different sets of information clearly affected the priority rankings. South African Chiroptera and Carnivora was used as a case study to addresses whether a simple measure of taxonomic diversity can be used as a proxy for different measures of phylogenetic diversity in determining regional conservation priority of taxa, when such information is limited. Evidence does suggest that the utilisation of the simple taxonomic diversity measure may provide the appropriate information on evolutionary diversity. Two theoretical concepts were proposed to address some potential shortcomings in the conservation prioritisation arena. The Orange List method offers a system to identify “species [or taxa] of high national importance or of high conservation value” (South African National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act 2004). In turn the Green Data List essentially represents a radical shift in the traditional approach to the management of both threatened and invasive taxa. Throughout this thesis, evidence do point to smaller mammals being of high conservation concern in South Africa, with the members from the Orders Rodentia, Chiroptera and Insectivora being constantly identified as high conservation priority. Apart from contributing to our current understanding of the conservation importance/priority of South Africa mammals, this current thesis has resulted in a robust understanding of various assessment techniques. / Thesis (DPhil (Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Zoology and Entomology / unrestricted

The Important Bird Areas (IBAs) network of BirdLife International aims to identify sites that are essential for the long-term conservation of the world’s avifauna. A number of global change events have the potential to negatively affect, either directly or indirectly, most bird species, biodiversity in general and associated ecological processes in these areas identified as IBAs. To assist conservation decisions, I assessed a suite of ten landscape scale anthropogenic pressures to 115 Important Bird Areas (IBAs) in South Africa, both those currently placing pressures on IBAs and those that constitute likely future vulnerability to transformation. These threats are combined with irreplaceability, a frequently used measure of conservation importance, to identify the suite of IBAs which are high priority sites for conservation interventions: those with high irreplaceability and are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. A total of 22 (19%) of the South African IBAs are highly irreplaceable and are highly vulnerable to at least some of the pressures assessed. Afforestation, current and potential future patterns of alien plant invasions affect the largest number of highly irreplaceable IBAs. Only 9% of the area of highly irreplaceable IBAs is formally protected. A total of 81 IBAs (71%) are less than 5% degraded or transformed. This result, together with seven highly irreplaceable IBAs found outside of formally protected areas with lower human densities than expected by chance provides an ideal opportunity for conservation interventions. However, all the pressures assessed vary geographically, with no discernible systematic pattern that might assist conservation managers to design effective regional interventions. Furthermore, I used the newly emerging technique of ensemble forecasting to assess the impact of climate change on endemic birds in relation to the IBAs network. I used 50 endemic species, eight bioclimatic envelope models, four climate change models and two methods of transformation to presence or absence, which essentially creates 2400 projections for the years 2070-2100. The consensual projection shows that climate change impacts are very likely to be severe. The majority of species (62%) lose climatically suitable space and 99% of grid cells show species turnover. Five species lose at least 85% of climatically suitable space. The current locations of the South African Important Bird Areas network is very likely ineffective to conserve endemic birds under climate change along a “business a usual” emissions scenario. Many IBAs show species loss (41%; 47 IBAs) and species turnover (77%; 95 IBAs). However, an irreplaceability analysis identified mountainous regions in South Africa as irreplaceable refugia for endemic species, and some of these regions are existing IBAs. These IBAs should receive renewed conservation attention, as they have the potential to substantially contribute to a flexible conservation network under realistic scenarios of climate change. Considering all the global change threats assessed in this study, the Amersfoort-Bethal-Carolina District and the Grassland Biosphere Reserve (IBA codes: SA018; SA020) are the key IBAs in South Africa for conservation prioritisation. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Zoology and Entomology / unrestricted