Recently adopted global marine protection targets aim to protect 10-30% of marine habitats within the next 3 to 5 years. However, these targets were adopted without prior assessment of their attainability. Moreover, our ability to monitor progress towards such targets has been constrained by a lack of robust data on marine protected areas (MPAs). In this thesis I present the results of the first explicitly marine-focused, global assessment of MPAs in relation to three global marine protection targets. Approximately 2.35 million km2, equivalent to 0.65% of the world’s oceans, are currently protected, and only 12% of that is ‘no-take’. Over the last two decades, the marine area protected globally has grown at ~5% per year. At this rate, even the most modest target is unlikely to be met for at least several decades. The utility of large-scale conservation targets has been repeatedly questioned, although mainly on ecological grounds. However, if, as is suggested here, their primary role is to motivate behavioural change, then a more serious problem is that they seem to be failing in this regard, too. I explore possible reasons for this and suggest two main problems: firstly, an as yet unmet need to develop a hierarchical system of targets that reflects the multi-scale and pluralistic nature of ecological and political systems; and secondly, feedback mechanisms between political will, perceived attainability, and target formulation which may impede implementation of the targets. Since the adoption of the global targets, no implementation strategy has been developed, which may also impede target attainment. In order to fill this gap, I applied a rarity-complementarity heuristic place prioritisation algorithm (PPA) to a dataset consisting of 1038 global species distributions with 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution, under ten scenarios devised to reflect the global targets. This is the first time that species distribution ranges of marine species have been used in a globally synthetic way, and is by far the largest application of a PPA to date. Global priority areas for protection are identified for each scenario, which may be used to identify where regional-scale protected areas network design efforts might be focused.

Recently adopted global marine protection targets aim to protect 10-30% of marine habitats within the next 3 to 5 years. However, these targets were adopted without prior assessment of their attainability. Moreover, our ability to monitor progress towards such targets has been constrained by a lack of robust data on marine protected areas (MPAs). In this thesis I present the results of the first explicitly marine-focused, global assessment of MPAs in relation to three global marine protection targets. Approximately 2.35 million km2, equivalent to 0.65% of the world’s oceans, are currently protected, and only 12% of that is ‘no-take’. Over the last two decades, the marine area protected globally has grown at ~5% per year. At this rate, even the most modest target is unlikely to be met for at least several decades. The utility of large-scale conservation targets has been repeatedly questioned, although mainly on ecological grounds. However, if, as is suggested here, their primary role is to motivate behavioural change, then a more serious problem is that they seem to be failing in this regard, too. I explore possible reasons for this and suggest two main problems: firstly, an as yet unmet need to develop a hierarchical system of targets that reflects the multi-scale and pluralistic nature of ecological and political systems; and secondly, feedback mechanisms between political will, perceived attainability, and target formulation which may impede implementation of the targets. Since the adoption of the global targets, no implementation strategy has been developed, which may also impede target attainment. In order to fill this gap, I applied a rarity-complementarity heuristic place prioritisation algorithm (PPA) to a dataset consisting of 1038 global species distributions with 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution, under ten scenarios devised to reflect the global targets. This is the first time that species distribution ranges of marine species have been used in a globally synthetic way, and is by far the largest application of a PPA to date. Global priority areas for protection are identified for each scenario, which may be used to identify where regional-scale protected areas network design efforts might be focused.

Recently adopted global marine protection targets aim to protect 10-30% of marine habitats within the next 3 to 5 years. However, these targets were adopted without prior assessment of their attainability. Moreover, our ability to monitor progress towards such targets has been constrained by a lack of robust data on marine protected areas (MPAs). In this thesis I present the results of the first explicitly marine-focused, global assessment of MPAs in relation to three global marine protection targets. Approximately 2.35 million km2, equivalent to 0.65% of the world’s oceans, are currently protected, and only 12% of that is ‘no-take’. Over the last two decades, the marine area protected globally has grown at ~5% per year. At this rate, even the most modest target is unlikely to be met for at least several decades. The utility of large-scale conservation targets has been repeatedly questioned, although mainly on ecological grounds. However, if, as is suggested here, their primary role is to motivate behavioural change, then a more serious problem is that they seem to be failing in this regard, too. I explore possible reasons for this and suggest two main problems: firstly, an as yet unmet need to develop a hierarchical system of targets that reflects the multi-scale and pluralistic nature of ecological and political systems; and secondly, feedback mechanisms between political will, perceived attainability, and target formulation which may impede implementation of the targets. Since the adoption of the global targets, no implementation strategy has been developed, which may also impede target attainment. In order to fill this gap, I applied a rarity-complementarity heuristic place prioritisation algorithm (PPA) to a dataset consisting of 1038 global species distributions with 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution, under ten scenarios devised to reflect the global targets. This is the first time that species distribution ranges of marine species have been used in a globally synthetic way, and is by far the largest application of a PPA to date. Global priority areas for protection are identified for each scenario, which may be used to identify where regional-scale protected areas network design efforts might be focused. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

Die übergreifende Zielsetzung meiner Studie ist eine Ausarbeitung quantitativer Methoden zur nationalen nationale Schutzplanung in Übereinstimmung mit dem internationalen Ansatz. Diese Zielsetzung erfordert eine Lösung der folgenden Probleme:<br><br> 1) Wie lässt sich Vegetationsvielfalt in grober Auflösung auf Basis abiotischen Faktoren einschätzen?<br> 2) Wie ist der Ansatz 'globaler Hotspots' für die Eingrenzung nationaler Biodiversitäts-Hotspots zu übernehmen?<br> 3) Wie erfolgt die Auswahl von quantitativen Schutzzielen unter Einbezug der Unterschiede nationaler Hotspots bei Umweltbedingungen und durch den Menschen Bedrohung?<br> 4) Wie sieht der Entwurf eines großflächigen nationalen Naturschutzkonzepts aus, das die hierarchische Natur der Artenvielfalt reflektiert? Die Fallstudie für nationale Naturschutzplanung ist Russland. <br><br> Die nachfolgenden theoretischen Schlüsse wurden gezogen:<br> · Großräumige Vegetationsdiversität ist weitgehend vorhersagbar durch klimabedingte latente Wärme für Verdunstung und topographische Landschaftsstruktur, beschrieben als Höhendifferenz. Das klimabasierte Modell reproduziert die beobachtete Artenanzahl von Gefäßpflanzen für verschiedene Gebiete auf der Welt mit einem durchschnittlichen Fehler von 15% <br> · Nationale Biodiversitäts-Hotspots können auf Grundlage biotischer oder abiotischer Daten kartographiert werden, indem als Korrektur für ein Land die quantitativen Kriterien für Planzenendemismus und Landnutzung des Ansatzes der 'globalen Hotspots' genutzt wird <br> · Quantitative Naturschutzziele, die die Unterschiede zwischen nationalen Biodiversitäts-Hotspots in Bezug auf Umweltbedingungen und der Bedrohung durch den Menschen miteinbeziehen, können mit nationalen Daten über Arten auf der Roten Liste gesetzt werden <br> · Ein großräumiger nationaler Naturschutzplan, der die hierarchische Natur der Artenvielfalt berücksichtigt, kann durch eine Kombination von abiotischer Methode im nationalen Bereich (Identifikation großräumiger Hotspots) und biotischer Methode im regionalen Bereich (Datenanalyse der Arten auf der Roten Liste) entworfen werden / The overall objective of the study is an elaboration of quantitative methods for national conservation planning, coincident with the international approach ('hotspots' approach). This objective requires a solution of following problems: <br><br> 1) How to estimate large scale vegetation diversity from abiotic factors only?<br> 2) How to adopt 'global hotspots' approach for bordering of national biodiversity hotspots?<br> 3) How to set conservation targets, accounting for difference in environmental conditions and human threats between national biodiversity hotspots?<br> 4) How to design large scale national conservation plan reflecting hierarchical nature of biodiversity?<br> The case study for national conservation planning is Russia. <br><br> Conclusions:<br> · Large scale vegetation diversity can be predicted to a major extent by climatically determined latent heat for evaporation and geometrical structure of landscape, described as an altitudinal difference. The climate based model reproduces observed species number of vascular plant for different areas of the world with an average error 15%<br> · National biodiversity hotspots can be mapped from biotic or abiotic data using corrected for a country the quantitative criteria for plant endemism and land use from the 'global hotspots' approach<br> · Quantitative conservation targets, accounting for difference in environmental conditions and human threats between national biodiversity hotspots can be set using national data for Red Data book species <br> · Large scale national conservation plan reflecting hierarchical nature of biodiversity can be designed by combination of abiotic method at national scale (identification of large scale hotspots) and biotic method at regional scale (analysis of species data from Red Data book)

La Manche orientale représente une zone économique importante qui supporte diverses activités anthropiques comme le tourisme, le transport maritime et l’exploitation de ressources vivantes ou minérales. De plus, cette région possède un riche patrimoine biologique illustré par sa grande diversité d’habitats. Les Aires Marines Protégées (AMP) sont souvent évoquées comme un instrument de gestion permettant d’aménager l’exploitation durable de ces ressources marines, dans le cadre d’une gestion écosystémique intégrée et responsable. Si les Etats ont pour obligation de créer des réseaux d’AMPs dans leurs eaux nationales, chacune d’elles est souvent localisée au cas par cas. Afin de coordonner la mise en place des différents réseaux d’AMPs, une démarche de planification spatiale systématique de la conservation est de plus en plus encouragée. Cette démarche a pour but de proposer un réseau d’AMP qui soit cohérent, même dans un contexte transfrontalier, comme c’est le cas en Manche orientale. Les travaux de recherche menés lors de cette thèse apportent ainsi une contribution scientifique à la mise en cohérence de l’aménagement des activités anthropiques avec les objectifs de conservation de l’écosystème marin de Manche orientale. Dans le cadre d’une approche de conservation intégrée, toute la biodiversité de la Manche orientale doit être représentée. Pour cela, en complément des typologies benthiques existantes dans la zone, une typologie des masses d’eau a été proposée et validée avec différents jeux de données d’espèces pélagiques. Marxan et Zonation, deux logiciels largement répandus en planification de la conservation ont été comparés dans le processus de conception du réseau d’AMP en Manche orientale. La conclusion a été que Marxan serait le logiciel utilisé pour la suite des analyses. En effet, ce logiciel est conçu pour atteindre clairement les cibles de conservation, ce qui facilite l’interprétation des résultats.Puis une étape essentielle de planification de la conservation a été réalisée à travers une analyse des lacunes (gap analysis) à l’échelle de la Manche orientale. Elle a permis de montrer que le réseau d’AMP existant atteint les cibles de conservation calculées dans cette thèse et qu’il couvre 33% de la Manche orientale. Il faut toutefois noter que l’étude des possibles lacunes au niveau de la gestion des AMPs n’a pu être réalisée de façon approfondie car la majorité de ces AMPS ne possèdent pas encore de plan de gestion défini.Finalement, l’influence de l’intégration des activités humaines dans le processus de conception du réseau d’AMP a été explorée grâce à l’utilisation de données d’effort de pêche et de données de débarquements. De plus, d’autres informations sur le trafic maritime, les extractions de granulats marins et les potentielles zones d’éoliennes en mer ont été ajoutées pour prendre en compte la totalité des usages et réglementation qui génèrent des contraintes spatiales en Manche orientale. / The eastern English Channel is a significant economic area that supports a number of human-based activities, such as tourism and recreational activities, international ports and shipping, and the extraction of both living and mineral resources. In addition, the region supports a number of important marine biological features and large habitat diversity. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are increasingly used as a management tool to foster a sustainable exploitation of marine resources in an ecosystem based management framework. All European countries have a legal obligation to develop MPA networks in their national waters. However, there has to date been only limited attempts to coordinate the design and positioning of such networks at an international level and the use of a systematic conservation planning approach is now recommended. This process aims to propose a coherent MPA network, even in a trans-boundary context as in the eastern English Channel (EEC). The studies conducted in this thesis contribute to the scientific knowledge needed to support both anthropogenic activities and conservation objectives in the eastern English Channel.The representation of the whole biodiversity of the eastern English Channel is important in a context of an integrated conservation approach. With this objective, to complete the existing benthic typologies, a pelagic typology was produced and validated with various pelagic species distribution data to ensure that the total biodiversity of the eastern English Channel would be considered.Marxan and Zonation, two widely used conservation planning software packages that provide decision support for the design of reserve systems were compared in the MPA network design process in the EEC. It was found that Marxan was most suitable for subsequent analyses in this thesis because it found reasonably efficient and clear solutions to the problem of selecting a system of spatially cohesive sites that met a suite of biodiversity targets, and the results were easily interpretable.Then, as it is an essential step in a conservation planning approach, a gap analysis was realized at the scale of the EEC. The currently proposed network met conservation targets proposed in this thesis and was found to cover 33% of the EEC. However, a correct assessment of management gaps was not possible as a major part of these MPA do not have management rules yet.Finally, the influence of the human activity data on the MPA design process was studied using landings and fishing effort data. Other information on maritime traffic, aggregate extraction or offshore windmills zones, and on-going MPA projects were also added to consider the whole set of uses and regulations that generate spatial constraints in the eastern English Channel.