Genetically modified (GM) white and yellow maize, Zea mays, has been commercially released and cultivated in South Africa since 1997/1998. The traits expressed are insect resistance and herbicide tolerance conferred by the bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry genes and Agrobacterium 5-enolpyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate (EPSP) synthase gene, respectively. The Cry genes have been used widely to control lepidopteran insect pests but insect resistance to GM Bt crops has been a concern since the introduction of this technology. A management strategy includes refugia planting of 5% non-Bt plants, with no insecticide application, and 20%, where insecticide application is allowed. These refugia are designed to allow the survival of insect pests within restricted planted zones. However, in South Africa there are reports of Bt-resistant stem borer (Busseola fusca) (Fuller) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and non-compliance with refuge planting. The aims of this study were two-fold: 1. To conduct a survey among KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) GM maize growers to ascertain information such as level of compliance with refuge planting and to determine which refugia were predominantly planted and reasons thereof; 2. To conduct a replicated field trial to determine yield, insect borer damage and economic benefit of the 5% unsprayed and 20% sprayed refuge options (including three configurations namely strip, perimeter and block and a 5 and 20% ‘refuge-in-a-bag’ option). The survey indicated that 28 out of 29 (96.6%) KZN Bt maize growers plant the 5% non-sprayed refuge with 27 (96.4%) of those respondents planting the strip configuration for the purpose of insect management (75%) and ease of planting (32.2%). The survey also showed that 7 (seven) i.e. 21.9% of KZN Bt maize growers observed borer damage and although growers are now fully compliant with refugia planting requirements, initially 7 respondents (24.1%) did not comply with or plant refugia correctly. Furthermore, 7 respondents reported insect borer damage in their maize with 4 of the 7 instances (57.1%) likely stemming from incorrectly planted refugia. vii No significant differences in yield or insect damage were observed between the 5 and 20% refugia for any of the planting configurations in the field trial. However due to costs involved with insecticide application and labour required for the operation in the 20% option, these treatments were less economically advantageous than the non-Bt control. The 20% block and strip configurations had a cost benefit ratio of ZAR 7.21 and ZAR 6.67 respectively, earned per R1 spent by the grower compared with ZAR 7.76 in the sprayed control. The cost-benefit comparison for the 5% block and strip configurations was ZAR 8.48 and ZAR 7.71, respectively compared with ZAR 9.44 in the unsprayed control. In addition, the 20% seed mixture limited borer damage to 4.95% when compared with 15.77% damage in the sprayed control (ANOVA, F pr = 0.124). The seed mixtures are not available commercially and the results from the survey indicated that some education and marketing by the seed companies would be advisable prior to their release to the farming community. In order to determine which of the refuge options between 5 and 20% would be more advantageous for growers overall, regardless of the planting configuration; data were grouped and analysed. There were no significant differences in either the yield or insect damage for the 5 and 20% refugia, but the cost-benefit calculations indicated that the 5% option was more cost effective – for the 5 and 20% refugia, ZAR 7.97 and ZAR 7.15 respectively, earned per ZAR 1 spent by the grower (ANOVA, F pr. = 0.03). This is because no insecticide was used in the 5% treatments. Mean ear damage comparisons between the 5 and 20% refugia showed that the 20% refuge in the perimeter configuration incurred the least damage (2.65% ear damage) compared with 5% perimeter (10.86% ear damage), although the reasons for this are not clear. While the results of the field trials showed no significant differences in insect damage and yield with regard to choice of refuge configuration, monitoring insect resistance management remains an integral part of Bt maize crops in South Africa, in order to delay further resistance development and to prolong the viability of Bt technology. / Agriculture and  Animal Health / M. Sc. (Agriculture)

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Recurring drought conditions have always been an endemic feature of climate in South Africa, limiting maize development and production. However, recent projections of the future climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that due to an increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the frequency and severity of droughts will increase in drought-prone areas, mostly in subtropical climates. This has raised major concern for the agricultural sector, particularly the vulnerable small-scale farmers who merely rely on rain for crop production. Farmers in the Luvuvhu River catchment are not an exception, as this area is considered economically poor, whereby a significant number of people are dependent on rain-fed farming for subsistence. This study was therefore conducted in order to improve agricultural productivity in the area and thus help in the development of measures to secure livelihoods of those vulnerable small-scale farmers. Two drought indices viz. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) were used to quantify drought. A 120-day maturing maize crop was considered and three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on the average start of the rainy season. Frequencies and probabilities during each growing stage of maize were calculated based on the results of the two indices. Temporal variations of drought severity from 1975 to 2015 were evaluated and trends were analyzed using the non-parametric Spearman’s Rank Correlation test at α (0.05) significance level. For assessing climate change impact on droughts, SPEI and WRSI were computed using an output from downscaled projections of CSIRO Mark3.5 under the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 1980/81 – 2099/100. The frequency of drought was calculated and the difference of SPEI and WRSI means between future climate periods and the base period were assessed using the independent t-test at α (0.10) significance level in STATISTICA software. The study revealed that planting a 120-day maturing maize crop in December would pose a high risk of frequent severe-extreme droughts during the flowering to the grain-filling stage at Levubu, Lwamondo, Thohoyandou, and Tshiombo; while planting in October could place crops at a lower risk of reduced yield and even total crop failure. In contrast, stations located in the low-lying plains of the catchment (Punda Maria, Sigonde, and Pafuri) were exposed to frequent moderate droughts following planting in October, with favorable conditions noted following the December planting date. Further analysis on the performance of the crop under various drought conditions revealed that WRSI values corresponding to more intense drought conditions were detected during the December planting date for all stations. Moreover, at Punda Maria, Sigonde and Pafuri, it was observed that extreme drought (WRSI <50) occurred once in five seasons, regardless of the planting date. Temporal analysis on historical droughts in the area indicated that there had been eight agricultural seasons subjected to extreme widespread droughts resulting in total crop failure i.e. 1983/84, 1988/89, 1991/92, 1993/94, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2004/05 and 2014/15. Results of Spearman’s rank correlation test revealed weak increasing drought trends at Thohoyandou (ρ = of 0.5 for WRSI) and at Levubu and Lwamondo (ρ = of 0.4 for SPEI), with no significant trends at the other stations. The study further revealed that climate change would enhance the severity of drought across the catchment. This was statistically significant (at 10% significance level) for the near-future and intermediate-future climates, relative to the base period. Drought remains a threat to rain-fed maize production in the Luvuvhu River catchment area of South Africa. In order to mitigate the possible effects of droughts under climate change, optimal planting dates were recommended for each region. The use of seasonal forecasts during drought seasons would also be useful for local rain-fed maize growers especially in regions where moisture is available for a short period during the growing season. It was further recommended that the Government ensure proper support such as effective early warning systems and inputs to the farmers. Moreover, essential communication between scientists, decision makers, and the farmers can help in planning and decision making ahead of and during the occurrence of droughts. / Agriculture, Animal Health and Human Ecology / M. Sc. (Agriculture)