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ESTIMATION IN PARTIALLY LINEAR MODELS WITH CORRELATED OBSERVATIONS AND CHANGE-POINT MODELSFan, Liangdong 01 January 2018 (has links)
Methods of estimating parametric and nonparametric components, as well as properties of the corresponding estimators, have been examined in partially linear models by Wahba [1987], Green et al. [1985], Engle et al. [1986], Speckman [1988], Hu et al. [2004], Charnigo et al. [2015] among others. These models are appealing due to their flexibility and wide range of practical applications including the electricity usage study by Engle et al. [1986], gum disease study by Speckman [1988], etc., wherea parametric component explains linear trends and a nonparametric part captures nonlinear relationships.
The compound estimator (Charnigo et al. [2015]) has been used to estimate the nonparametric component of such a model with multiple covariates, in conjunction with linear mixed modeling for the parametric component. These authors showed, under a strict orthogonality condition, that parametric and nonparametric component estimators could achieve what appear to be (nearly) optimal rates, even in the presence of subject-specific random effects.
We continue with research on partially linear models with subject-specific random intercepts. Inspired by Speckman [1988], we propose estimators of both parametric and nonparametric components of a partially linear model, where consistency is achievable under an orthogonality condition. We also examine a scenario without orthogonality to find that bias could still exist asymptotically. The random intercepts accommodate analysis of individuals on whom repeated measures are taken. We illustrate our estimators in a biomedical case study and assess their finite-sample performance in simulation studies.
Jump points have often been found within the domain of nonparametric models (Muller [1992], Loader [1996] and Gijbels et al. [1999]), which may lead to a poor fit when falsely assuming the underlying mean response is continuous. We study a specific type of change-point where the underlying mean response is continuous on both left and right sides of the change-point. We identify the convergence rate of the estimator proposed in Liu [2017] and illustrate the result in simulation studies.
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Monitoring Markov Dependent Binary Observations with a Log-Likelihood Ratio Based CUSUM Control ChartModarres-Mousavi, Shabnam 04 April 2006 (has links)
Our objective is to monitor the changes in a proportion with correlated binary observations. All of the published work on this subject used the first-order Markov chain model for the data. Increasing the order of dependence above one by extending a standard Markov chain model entails an exponential increase of both the number of parameters and the dimension of the transition probability matrix. In this dissertation, we develop a particular Markov chain structure, the Multilevel Model (MLM), to model the correlation between binary data. The basic idea is to assign a lower probability to observing a 1 when all previous correlated observations are 0's, and a higher probability to observing a 1 as the last observed 1 gets closer to the current observation. We refer to each of the distinct situations of observing a 1 as a "level". For a given order of dependence, , at most different values of conditional probabilities of observing a 1 can be assigned. So the number of levels is always less than or equal to . Compared to a direct extension of the first-order Markov model to higher orders, our model is considerably parsimonious. The number of parameters for the MLM is only one plus the number of levels, and the transition probability matrix is .
We construct a CUSUM control chart for monitoring a proportion with correlated binary observations. First, we use the probability structure of a first-order Markov chain to derive a log-likelihood ratio based CUSUM control statistic. Then, we model this CUSUM statistic itself as a Markov chain, which in turn allows for designing a control chart with specified statistical properties: the Markov Binary CUSUM (MBCUSUM) chart. We generalize the MBCUSUM to account for any order of dependence between binary observations through implying MLM to the data and to our CUSUM control statistic. We verify that the MBCUSUM has a better performance than a curtailed Shewhart chart. Also, we show that except for extremely large changes in the proportion (of interest) the MBCUSUM control chart detects the changes faster than the Bernoulli CUSUM control chart, which is designed for independent observations. / Ph. D.
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Contribution à la régression non paramétrique avec un processus erreur d'autocovariance générale et application en pharmacocinétique / Contribution to nonparametric regression estimation with general autocovariance error process and application to pharmacokineticsBenelmadani, Djihad 18 September 2019 (has links)
Dans cette thèse, nous considérons le modèle de régression avec plusieurs unités expérimentales, où les erreurs forment un processus d'autocovariance dans un cadre générale, c'est-à-dire, un processus du second ordre (stationnaire ou non stationnaire) avec une autocovariance non différentiable le long de la diagonale. Nous sommes intéressés, entre autres, à l'estimation non paramétrique de la fonction de régression de ce modèle.Premièrement, nous considérons l'estimateur classique proposé par Gasser et Müller. Nous étudions ses performances asymptotiques quand le nombre d'unités expérimentales et le nombre d'observations tendent vers l'infini. Pour un échantillonnage régulier, nous améliorons les vitesses de convergence d'ordre supérieur de son biais et de sa variance. Nous montrons aussi sa normalité asymptotique dans le cas des erreurs corrélées.Deuxièmement, nous proposons un nouvel estimateur à noyau pour la fonction de régression, basé sur une propriété de projection. Cet estimateur est construit à travers la fonction d'autocovariance des erreurs et une fonction particulière appartenant à l'Espace de Hilbert à Noyau Autoreproduisant (RKHS) associé à la fonction d'autocovariance. Nous étudions les performances asymptotiques de l'estimateur en utilisant les propriétés de RKHS. Ces propriétés nous permettent d'obtenir la vitesse optimale de convergence de la variance de cet estimateur. Nous prouvons sa normalité asymptotique, et montrons que sa variance est asymptotiquement plus petite que celle de l'estimateur de Gasser et Müller. Nous conduisons une étude de simulation pour confirmer nos résultats théoriques.Troisièmement, nous proposons un nouvel estimateur à noyau pour la fonction de régression. Cet estimateur est construit en utilisant la règle numérique des trapèzes, pour approximer l'estimateur basé sur des données continues. Nous étudions aussi sa performance asymptotique et nous montrons sa normalité asymptotique. En outre, cet estimateur permet d'obtenir le plan d'échantillonnage optimal pour l'estimation de la fonction de régression. Une étude de simulation est conduite afin de tester le comportement de cet estimateur dans un plan d'échantillonnage de taille finie, en terme d'erreur en moyenne quadratique intégrée (IMSE). De plus, nous montrons la réduction dans l'IMSE en utilisant le plan d'échantillonnage optimal au lieu de l'échantillonnage uniforme.Finalement, nous considérons une application de la régression non paramétrique dans le domaine pharmacocinétique. Nous proposons l'utilisation de l'estimateur non paramétrique à noyau pour l'estimation de la fonction de concentration. Nous vérifions son bon comportement par des simulations et une analyse de données réelles. Nous investiguons aussi le problème de l'estimation de l'Aire Sous la Courbe de concentration (AUC), pour lequel nous proposons un nouvel estimateur à noyau, obtenu par l'intégration de l'estimateur à noyau de la fonction de régression. Nous montrons, par une étude de simulation, que le nouvel estimateur est meilleur que l'estimateur classique en terme d'erreur en moyenne quadratique. Le problème crucial de l'obtention d'un plan d'échantillonnage optimale pour l'estimation de l'AUC est discuté en utilisant l'algorithme de recuit simulé généralisé. / In this thesis, we consider the fixed design regression model with repeated measurements, where the errors form a process with general autocovariance function, i.e. a second order process (stationary or nonstationary), with a non-differentiable covariance function along the diagonal. We are interested, among other problems, in the nonparametric estimation of the regression function of this model.We first consider the well-known kernel regression estimator proposed by Gasser and Müller. We study its asymptotic performance when the number of experimental units and the number of observations tend to infinity. For a regular sequence of designs, we improve the higher rates of convergence of the variance and the bias. We also prove the asymptotic normality of this estimator in the case of correlated errors.Second, we propose a new kernel estimator of the regression function based on a projection property. This estimator is constructed through the autocovariance function of the errors, and a specific function belonging to the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) associated to the autocovariance function. We study its asymptotic performance using the RKHS properties. These properties allow to obtain the optimal convergence rate of the variance. We also prove its asymptotic normality. We show that this new estimator has a smaller asymptotic variance then the one of Gasser and Müller. A simulation study is conducted to confirm this theoretical result.Third, we propose a new kernel estimator for the regression function. This estimator is constructed through the trapezoidal numerical approximation of the kernel regression estimator based on continuous observations. We study its asymptotic performance, and we prove its asymptotic normality. Moreover, this estimator allow to obtain the asymptotic optimal sampling design for the estimation of the regression function. We run a simulation study to test the performance of the proposed estimator in a finite sample set, where we see its good performance, in terms of Integrated Mean Squared Error (IMSE). In addition, we show the reduction of the IMSE using the optimal sampling design instead of the uniform design in a finite sample set.Finally, we consider an application of the regression function estimation in pharmacokinetics problems. We propose to use the nonparametric kernel methods, for the concentration-time curve estimation, instead of the classical parametric ones. We prove its good performance via simulation study and real data analysis. We also investigate the problem of estimating the Area Under the concentration Curve (AUC), where we introduce a new kernel estimator, obtained by the integration of the regression function estimator. We prove, using a simulation study, that the proposed estimators outperform the classical one in terms of Mean Squared Error. The crucial problem of finding the optimal sampling design for the AUC estimation is investigated using the Generalized Simulating Annealing algorithm.
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