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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
21

O impacto da prática de income smoothing no custo de capital próprio em empresas brasileiras de capital aberto / The impact of income smoothing practice in the cost of equity in Brazilian public companies

Meli, Diego Bevilacqua 08 December 2015 (has links)
Este estudo teve como objetivo geral verificar o efeito das práticas de income smoothing (suavização dos resultados) no custo de capital próprio (Ke) das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto em dois momentos distintos: 2004 a 2007 (antes da adoção das IFRS) e 2011 a 2014 (após a adoção das IFRS). Por income smoothing entende-se como o amortecimento intencional dos resultados da empresa, feita pelo gestor via seu poder discricionário, com o intuito de reduzir a variabilidade dos lucros e, assim, transmitir ao mercado consistência de seus resultados. O custo de capital próprio, por sua vez, evidencia o retorno exigido pelo investidor, o que ocasiona a sua utilidade na tomada de decisão. Como o investidor espera obter um retorno do ativo acima de outro de risco similar, é esperado que as suas decisões sejam alteradas na medida que as empresas se utilizam do income smoothing. Como proxy para identificar a suavização dos resultados, foram selecionadas três métricas constantemente utilizadas na literatura. Além de tais métricas, como metodologia contributiva, foi elaborado, por meio da Análise Fatorial, um fator baseado nas três medidas, dado que os métodos para identificar a suavização são discrepantes e o uso do fator possibilita a conjunção da informação contida nos três métodos. A amostra selecionada contempla 105 empresas no primeiro período e 206 no segundo. O Ke foi calculado utilizando a metodologia por benchmark. Para explicar os efeitos no Ke devido a prática de income smoothing, a regressão linear múltipla por meio de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) foi aplicada para cada período de análise. Também foram aplicadas duas outras regressões: uma com diferenças em diferenças e outra com dados em painel MQO pooled (antes e após a adoção das IFRS) para a verificação de quebra estrutural. Os resultados mostraram que no período 2004-2007 apenas a métrica EM2 foi significativa na explicação do Ke. No período que compreende 2011-2014, tanto a métrica EM1 quanto o Fator foram estatisticamente significativos. Ainda de acordo com os resultados obtidos, verifica-se que houve alteração significativa no Ke após a adoção das IFRS e que pode ter alterado a forma como as métricas identificam o income smoothing. De maneira geral, o investimento em uma empresa suavizadora é inversamente proporcional ao seu Ke, ou seja, o mercado entende que investir em empresa que adota a prática de suavização dos resultados, implica em um menor retorno exigido. / This study aimed to verify the effect of income smoothing practices in the cost of equity (Ke) of Brazilian public companies in two distinct periods: 2004 to 2007 (before adopting IFRS) and 2011-2014 (after adopting IFRS). Income smoothing is understood as the company´s intentional dampening of the results, made by the manager due to his discretionary power, in order to reduce the variability of profits and thus convey to the market consistency of results. The cost of equity capital highlights the return required by the investor, which is useful in decision making. Since the investor expects to achieve an active return above other similar risk, it is expected a change in decisions when firms use the income smoothing. As a proxy to identify the smoothing of results, three metrics constantly used in the literature were selected. In addition to such metrics, Factor Analysis, a factor based on the three measurements was developed as contributory methodology, since the methods to identify the smoothing are disparate the use of the factor enables combining the information contained in the three methods. The selected sample includes 105 companies in the first period and 206 in the second. The Ke was calculated based on benchmark. To explain the effects on Ke due to the practice of income smoothing, linear multiple regression using ordinary least squares (OLS) was applied in each period analyzed. Besides applying two other regressions: one with differences in differences and another with OLS panel pooled data (before and after the adoptng IFRS) to verify structural break. The results showed that in the period of 2004-2007 the metric EM2 was significant to explain the Ke. In the period between 2011-2014, both the metric EM1 as well as the factor were statistically significant. Also according to the results, it appears that there was a significant change in the Ke after adopting IFRS and that may have changed the way the metrics identify the income smoothing. In general, the investment in a smothing company is inversely proportional to its Ke, that is, the market understands that investing in a company that adopts the practice of income smoothing, implies in a lower required return.
22

Levantamento dos fatores determinantes da estrutura de capital das empresas brasileiras / The determinants of brazilian companies capital structure

Santos, Carolina Macagnani dos 27 March 2006 (has links)
As empresas podem financiar suas atividades por meio da utilização de recursos próprios e de terceiros, que juntos, formam a sua estrutura de capital. Na literatura financeira, o estudo sobre a estrutura de capital teve como marco a publicação do trabalho de Modigliani e Miller (1958), e desde então, vem sendo amplamente debatido no meio acadêmico. Todavia, pouco se concluiu a respeito dos fatores que determinam a estrutura de capital das organizações. O presente trabalho, procurou, por meio da aplicação de questionários em uma população composta por 356 empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, investigar os fatores que são determinantes na escolha das fontes de recursos de longo prazo utilizadas pelas organizações. Os questionários foram enviados para os e-mails do departamento de Relações com Investidores e da população, resultou uma amostra composta por 40 empresas que responderam os questionários. Tal amostra foi classificada como não-probabilística, o que impede que seus resultados sejam generalizados à população. Os setores de utilidade pública, materiais básicos e consumo cíclico foram responsáveis, juntos, por 63% do total de questionários respondidos. Diferente do que se esperava em relação à teoria mais utilizada pelas organizações na definição da estrutura de capital, o oportunismo foi considerado apenas por 13% das empresas, enquanto que a adoção de uma estrutura meta de capital foi a opção de metade da amostra. A teoria da hierarquia de fontes de recursos foi a escolha de 28% das empresas analisadas. Quanto aos motivos que levam as empresas a não utilizar o mercado de capitais, a não necessidade de captação de altos volumes, a excessiva burocracia e os elevados custos operacionais foram os considerados mais importantes pelas empresas analisadas. Por outro lado, esse mercado foi considerado uma fonte de recursos com custos atraentes (sendo o principal motivo da utilização do mercado de capitais para 25% das empresas). Estratégia de crescimento e/ou valorização da empresa, bem como maior visibilidade no mercado financeiro, também justificam a utilização do mercado de capitais pelas empresas pesquisadas. Os custos de transação foram considerados o fator que mais afeta a formação da estrutura de capital por 23% das empresas da amostra, o que é condizente com a importância dos juros na escolha das fontes de recursos. Flexibilidade financeira foi a segunda opção de 15% das empresas; rating e benefícios fiscais da dívida foram considerados a terceira opção para 13% das companhias da amostra. Percebeu-se que alguns resultados obtidos foram condizentes com as expectativas, outros não. A limitação do presente trabalho encontra-se na quantidade de empresas que compuseram a amostra, ficando como principal sugestão para trabalhos futuros, uma forma de aplicação de questionários mais abrangente. / One of the most contentious issues in the theory of finance has been the theory of capital structure. In recent years, a number of theories have been proposed to explain the variation in debt ratio across firms. The theories suggest that firms select their capital structure depending on attributes that determine the various costs and benefits associated with debt and equity financing. Modigliani e Miller (1958) showed that capital structure decisions do not affect firm value when capital markets are perfect and when corporate and personal taxes do not exist. However, when one or more of the M&M assumptions are relaxed, many authors demonstrate how firm value may vary with changes in the debt-equity mix. Since the discussion regarding to the capital structure of the firms is not finished in financial literature, the aim of this study was to find out what factors are more important when financial executives choose the sources of long term capital that will be used by their companies. For this proposal, a survey instrument was adeveloped and sent to a list of 356 brazilian companies. A total of 40 firms aswered the survey and for this reason, the sample analized in this study is classified as non-probabilistic, and its results can not be representative of the population. This survey showed that 50% of the firms have a target capital structure and 28% follow the Pecking Order Theory. When asked about what is the main motive the affects the debt ratio, 73% of the firms aswered that interest rates are the most important variable that has some influence on the capital structure decision of the company. Other interest results were found in this study and they can help to explain some of the decisions that are taken by financial executives regarding to the capital structure of their firms.
23

O impacto da prática de income smoothing no custo de capital próprio em empresas brasileiras de capital aberto / The impact of income smoothing practice in the cost of equity in Brazilian public companies

Diego Bevilacqua Meli 08 December 2015 (has links)
Este estudo teve como objetivo geral verificar o efeito das práticas de income smoothing (suavização dos resultados) no custo de capital próprio (Ke) das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto em dois momentos distintos: 2004 a 2007 (antes da adoção das IFRS) e 2011 a 2014 (após a adoção das IFRS). Por income smoothing entende-se como o amortecimento intencional dos resultados da empresa, feita pelo gestor via seu poder discricionário, com o intuito de reduzir a variabilidade dos lucros e, assim, transmitir ao mercado consistência de seus resultados. O custo de capital próprio, por sua vez, evidencia o retorno exigido pelo investidor, o que ocasiona a sua utilidade na tomada de decisão. Como o investidor espera obter um retorno do ativo acima de outro de risco similar, é esperado que as suas decisões sejam alteradas na medida que as empresas se utilizam do income smoothing. Como proxy para identificar a suavização dos resultados, foram selecionadas três métricas constantemente utilizadas na literatura. Além de tais métricas, como metodologia contributiva, foi elaborado, por meio da Análise Fatorial, um fator baseado nas três medidas, dado que os métodos para identificar a suavização são discrepantes e o uso do fator possibilita a conjunção da informação contida nos três métodos. A amostra selecionada contempla 105 empresas no primeiro período e 206 no segundo. O Ke foi calculado utilizando a metodologia por benchmark. Para explicar os efeitos no Ke devido a prática de income smoothing, a regressão linear múltipla por meio de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) foi aplicada para cada período de análise. Também foram aplicadas duas outras regressões: uma com diferenças em diferenças e outra com dados em painel MQO pooled (antes e após a adoção das IFRS) para a verificação de quebra estrutural. Os resultados mostraram que no período 2004-2007 apenas a métrica EM2 foi significativa na explicação do Ke. No período que compreende 2011-2014, tanto a métrica EM1 quanto o Fator foram estatisticamente significativos. Ainda de acordo com os resultados obtidos, verifica-se que houve alteração significativa no Ke após a adoção das IFRS e que pode ter alterado a forma como as métricas identificam o income smoothing. De maneira geral, o investimento em uma empresa suavizadora é inversamente proporcional ao seu Ke, ou seja, o mercado entende que investir em empresa que adota a prática de suavização dos resultados, implica em um menor retorno exigido. / This study aimed to verify the effect of income smoothing practices in the cost of equity (Ke) of Brazilian public companies in two distinct periods: 2004 to 2007 (before adopting IFRS) and 2011-2014 (after adopting IFRS). Income smoothing is understood as the company´s intentional dampening of the results, made by the manager due to his discretionary power, in order to reduce the variability of profits and thus convey to the market consistency of results. The cost of equity capital highlights the return required by the investor, which is useful in decision making. Since the investor expects to achieve an active return above other similar risk, it is expected a change in decisions when firms use the income smoothing. As a proxy to identify the smoothing of results, three metrics constantly used in the literature were selected. In addition to such metrics, Factor Analysis, a factor based on the three measurements was developed as contributory methodology, since the methods to identify the smoothing are disparate the use of the factor enables combining the information contained in the three methods. The selected sample includes 105 companies in the first period and 206 in the second. The Ke was calculated based on benchmark. To explain the effects on Ke due to the practice of income smoothing, linear multiple regression using ordinary least squares (OLS) was applied in each period analyzed. Besides applying two other regressions: one with differences in differences and another with OLS panel pooled data (before and after the adoptng IFRS) to verify structural break. The results showed that in the period of 2004-2007 the metric EM2 was significant to explain the Ke. In the period between 2011-2014, both the metric EM1 as well as the factor were statistically significant. Also according to the results, it appears that there was a significant change in the Ke after adopting IFRS and that may have changed the way the metrics identify the income smoothing. In general, the investment in a smothing company is inversely proportional to its Ke, that is, the market understands that investing in a company that adopts the practice of income smoothing, implies in a lower required return.
24

[en] COST OF EQUITY IN EMERGING MARKETS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH ARGENTINEAN, BRAZILIAN, CHILEAN AND MEXICAN COMPANIES / [pt] CUSTO DE CAPITAL PRÓPRIO EM MERCADOS EMERGENTES: UMA ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA EM EMPRESAS ARGENTINAS, BRASILEIRAS, CHILENAS E MEXICANAS

TOMAZ ANDRES BARBOSA 12 March 2004 (has links)
[pt] A estimação do custo de capital próprio em mercados emergentes é uma tarefa relevante para diversos grupos: investidores internacionais, investidores locais, administradores e até os reguladores. Diante disso, essa dissertação de mestrado tem, portanto, quatro objetivos principais: (i) discutir de maneira crítica os aspectos teóricos dos modelos de avaliação de custo de capital próprio em mercados emergentes existentes na literatura; (ii) apresentar e discutir as principais metodologias existentes para a estimação dos parâmetros dos modelos de avaliação de custo de capital próprio; (iii) realizar uma aplicação comparativa desses modelos nos mercados acionários argentino, brasileiro, chileno e mexicano de maneira a avaliar o impacto da escolha de determinado modelo de avaliação de custo de capital próprio sobre as decisões dos investidores e reguladores; e (iv) avaliar o poder explanatório das medidas de risco dos modelos analisados sobre os retornos futuros. Os resultados obtidos indicaram, de uma maneira geral, que: (i) a escolha de determinado modelo de avaliação de custo de capital próprio por parte do investidor influencia diretamente a tomada de decisões desse investidor, seja sobre a decisão de macro-alocação de recursos entre países ou sobre a escolha do grau de exposição a determinado país; (ii) as medidas de risco do D- CAPM (downside betas) apresentaram um poder explanatório maior sobre os retornos futuros das ações de empresas Argentinas, Brasileiras, Chilenas e Mexicanas analisadas e foram também mais úteis para a construção de portfólios, entretanto, não foi possível identificar uma medida de risco em especial que apresentasse desempenho superior simultaneamente em todos os mercados em questão. / [en] Cost of equity valuation in emerging markets is a relevant task for many groups: international investors, local investors, business administrators and regulators. Therefore, this dissertation has four main objectives: (i) to discuss critically the theoretical aspects of the cost of equity valuation models that have been proposed to emerging markets; (ii) to discuss the mainstream methodologies applied in the cost of equity valuation models for the parameters estimation; (iii) to implement the CAPM and D-CAPM cost of equity valuation models in Argentinean, Brazilian, Chilean and Mexican companies with the aim to make various kinds of comparative analysis and to evaluate the impact of the model choice upon investors decisions; and (iv) to evaluate the explanatory power of the risk measures against future returns. The results indicate that: (i) the choice of the cost of equity valuation model has a relevant impact upon investors decisions regarding asset allocation; (ii) the downside risk measures (downside betas) had a better explanatory power against future returns for Argentinean, Brazilian and Mexican companies and also have been more useful in portfolio construction. Nevertheless, there was no single risk measure that performed better simultaneously in all the markets being analyzed.
25

Levantamento dos fatores determinantes da estrutura de capital das empresas brasileiras / The determinants of brazilian companies capital structure

Carolina Macagnani dos Santos 27 March 2006 (has links)
As empresas podem financiar suas atividades por meio da utilização de recursos próprios e de terceiros, que juntos, formam a sua estrutura de capital. Na literatura financeira, o estudo sobre a estrutura de capital teve como marco a publicação do trabalho de Modigliani e Miller (1958), e desde então, vem sendo amplamente debatido no meio acadêmico. Todavia, pouco se concluiu a respeito dos fatores que determinam a estrutura de capital das organizações. O presente trabalho, procurou, por meio da aplicação de questionários em uma população composta por 356 empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, investigar os fatores que são determinantes na escolha das fontes de recursos de longo prazo utilizadas pelas organizações. Os questionários foram enviados para os e-mails do departamento de Relações com Investidores e da população, resultou uma amostra composta por 40 empresas que responderam os questionários. Tal amostra foi classificada como não-probabilística, o que impede que seus resultados sejam generalizados à população. Os setores de utilidade pública, materiais básicos e consumo cíclico foram responsáveis, juntos, por 63% do total de questionários respondidos. Diferente do que se esperava em relação à teoria mais utilizada pelas organizações na definição da estrutura de capital, o oportunismo foi considerado apenas por 13% das empresas, enquanto que a adoção de uma estrutura meta de capital foi a opção de metade da amostra. A teoria da hierarquia de fontes de recursos foi a escolha de 28% das empresas analisadas. Quanto aos motivos que levam as empresas a não utilizar o mercado de capitais, a não necessidade de captação de altos volumes, a excessiva burocracia e os elevados custos operacionais foram os considerados mais importantes pelas empresas analisadas. Por outro lado, esse mercado foi considerado uma fonte de recursos com custos atraentes (sendo o principal motivo da utilização do mercado de capitais para 25% das empresas). Estratégia de crescimento e/ou valorização da empresa, bem como maior visibilidade no mercado financeiro, também justificam a utilização do mercado de capitais pelas empresas pesquisadas. Os custos de transação foram considerados o fator que mais afeta a formação da estrutura de capital por 23% das empresas da amostra, o que é condizente com a importância dos juros na escolha das fontes de recursos. Flexibilidade financeira foi a segunda opção de 15% das empresas; rating e benefícios fiscais da dívida foram considerados a terceira opção para 13% das companhias da amostra. Percebeu-se que alguns resultados obtidos foram condizentes com as expectativas, outros não. A limitação do presente trabalho encontra-se na quantidade de empresas que compuseram a amostra, ficando como principal sugestão para trabalhos futuros, uma forma de aplicação de questionários mais abrangente. / One of the most contentious issues in the theory of finance has been the theory of capital structure. In recent years, a number of theories have been proposed to explain the variation in debt ratio across firms. The theories suggest that firms select their capital structure depending on attributes that determine the various costs and benefits associated with debt and equity financing. Modigliani e Miller (1958) showed that capital structure decisions do not affect firm value when capital markets are perfect and when corporate and personal taxes do not exist. However, when one or more of the M&M assumptions are relaxed, many authors demonstrate how firm value may vary with changes in the debt-equity mix. Since the discussion regarding to the capital structure of the firms is not finished in financial literature, the aim of this study was to find out what factors are more important when financial executives choose the sources of long term capital that will be used by their companies. For this proposal, a survey instrument was adeveloped and sent to a list of 356 brazilian companies. A total of 40 firms aswered the survey and for this reason, the sample analized in this study is classified as non-probabilistic, and its results can not be representative of the population. This survey showed that 50% of the firms have a target capital structure and 28% follow the Pecking Order Theory. When asked about what is the main motive the affects the debt ratio, 73% of the firms aswered that interest rates are the most important variable that has some influence on the capital structure decision of the company. Other interest results were found in this study and they can help to explain some of the decisions that are taken by financial executives regarding to the capital structure of their firms.
26

Valuation in High Growth Markets: Capturing Country Risk in the Cost of Equity Capital

Soeriowardojo, Gino Thomas January 2010 (has links)
This paper adds to the understanding and transparency of equity pricing in emerging markets. Its novel contribution is that it empirically investigates the pricing of Country Risk in BRIC markets, using a two-factor intertemporal pricing model. Bridging the gap between academics and practitioners, this paper contributes to the debate as to whether or not it is justified to adjust discount rates for emerging market companies – as given by the CAPM – by including an unconditional country risk premium. In choosing between country risk proxies, the sovereign yield spread adjusted for relative equity volatility appears to supersede the classical sovereign yield spread in explaining return variations. Evidence is presented that country risk is priced in India and China indicating some type of market segmentation; in these markets, the addition of a country risk premium to the discount rate is justified. Moreover, the paper complements the market integration literature in that it is shown that the correlation between the change in country risk premium and the equity risk premium might show signs of market segmentation or market integration, rendering the pricing factor for country risk in specific countries significant or insignificant, respectively. © 2010 Soeriowardojo, G.T. All rights reserved.
27

Mandatory Adoption of IFRS: It´s Effect on Accounting Quality, Information Environment and Cost of Equity Capital – The Case of Swedish Banks

Gautam, Rekha January 2011 (has links)
IFRS standards are getting acceptance day by day rapidly in all over the world. It is because IFRSs are the global and common language, which are more transparent and comparable for the investors and users residing in different nations. IFRSs are mandatory for all companies listed in capital market within EU from the beginning of 2005. As a member state of EU, Swedish banks also adopted mandatory IFRS from 1 January 2005. However, the banks were already implementing IFRS to some extent as most of the standards in SGAAP (Swedish Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) were already directly translated from IAS. After mandatory period, the banks adopted all new, updated and revised standards in accordance with EU recommendations. Nevertheless, there are little or no material effects of adoption of IFRS standards except some particular standards. Such particular standards are: IFRS3, IAS39, IAS27, EU Occupational Pension Directive, IAS32, and Deferred Acquisition Cost. And the main differences between IFRS and SGAAP are IAS1, IFRS3, financial assets, financial instruments, intangible assets, hedge accounting and tax driven. But, the Swedish GAAP no longer exists now for the companies listed in capital market as mandatory IFRS is into force. Furthermore, I examined transparency & accounting quality, information environment, and cost of equity capital of four sample banks after mandatory IFRS adoption. But, I find the level of transparency and financial reporting quality has not been increased over the years. Regarding accounting quality, I also examined earning management, loss recognition, and value relevance. I find little evidence of less earning management, and find unclear evidence regarding loss recognition and value relevance. In other word, I find little evidence of increased accounting quality, although Sweden is a country with strong regulatory enforcements. Moreover, I also find little evidence of improved information environment but find information cost increased; although I find lower information risks after mandatory IFRS adoption. I, however, find lower cost of equity capital after mandatory IFRS adoption because for banks it will be easy to reach wider investors communities residing in different nations. Nevertheless, the evident advantage of IFRS is that the capital market can use information based on common rules.
28

Case Study for cost of equity of company - in terms of C corporation

Juang, Der-Feng 16 June 2006 (has links)
To face the competition in the business environment, the company should continuously execute the capital investment to reinforce its competitive ability and to insure the endless business operation. Due to the capital investment involving huge money and long-term impact, the company should considerately and thoughtfully evaluate the financial feasibility of capital investment prior to making decision. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is usually used as benchmark to evaluate the capital investment. WACC is made up of two key elements. The cost of equity, one of both, however, is difficult to measure. This article, taking C company as an example, is focused on how to apply 3 different models such as Dividend Growth Model (DGM), Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Free Cash Flow Model (FCF) to compute the cost of equity as well as on analyzing the outcomes of those models. The outcomes of DGM, CAPM and FCF are respectively 11.82%, 14.2%, and 10.50%, and the highest one is the outcome computed from CAPM. The outcomes computed from both DGM and FCF are narrowly different. As compared with actual rate of return of C company stock (11.6% adjusted from ex-cash dividend and ex-stock dividend), it is found that the outcome of DGM is the nearest to actual rate of return of C company stock, then FCF¡¦s is next one and CAPM¡¦s is most different. However, on condition that the company did not distribute cash dividend in its record or stayed on the abnormal growth stage, the DGM could not be applicable. Internal capital budgeting includes expansion of production expansion, replacement, improvement and innovation. Due to the fact that the attribute of this kind of capital investment is similar to that of the company¡¦s business of line, FCF would be the most appropriate model to estimate the cost of equity to determine the WACC for the purpose of internal capital budgeting evaluation.
29

Valuation in High Growth Markets: Capturing Country Risk in the Cost of Equity Capital

Soeriowardojo, Gino Thomas January 2010 (has links)
<p>This paper adds to the understanding and transparency of equity pricing in emerging markets. Its novel contribution is that it empirically investigates the pricing of Country Risk in BRIC markets, using a two-factor intertemporal pricing model. Bridging the gap between academics and practitioners, this paper contributes to the debate as to whether or not it is justified to adjust discount rates for emerging market companies – as given by the CAPM – by including an unconditional country risk premium. In choosing between country risk proxies, the sovereign yield spread adjusted for relative equity volatility appears to supersede the classical sovereign yield spread in explaining return variations. Evidence is presented that country risk is priced in India and China indicating some type of market segmentation; in these markets, the addition of a country risk premium to the discount rate is justified. Moreover, the paper complements the market integration literature in that it is shown that the correlation between the change in country risk premium and the equity risk premium might show signs of market segmentation or market integration, rendering the pricing factor for country risk in specific countries significant or insignificant, respectively. © 2010 Soeriowardojo, G.T. All rights reserved.</p>
30

The efficient market hypothesis revisited : some evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Ergul, Nuray January 1995 (has links)
This thesis seeks to address three important issues relating to the efficient functioning of the Istanbul Stock Exchange. In particular the thesis seeks to answer the following questions 1. What makes markets informationally efficient or inefficient? 2. Has increased stock market volatility had an impact on the equity risk premium and the cost of equity capital to firms? and 3. How is it possible to reconcile the view that markets are weak form efficient and technical analysis is a pervasive activity in such markets? Unlike previous studies, this thesis seeks to examine the issue of efficiency when institutional features specific to the market under investigation are taken into account. Specifically, the thesis adopts a testing methodology which enables us to recognize possible non-linear behaviour, thin trading and institutional changes in testing market efficiency. The results from this investigation show that informationally efficient markets are brought about by improving liquidity, ensuring that investors have access to high quality and reliable information and minimising the institutional restrictions on trading. In addition, the results suggest that emerging markets may initially be characterised as inefficient but over time, with the right regulatory framework, will develop into efficient and effective markets. The second important issue to be examined in this thesis concerns the impact of regulatory changes on market volatility and the cost of equity capital to firms. It is not sufficient to simply examine whether volatility has increased following a fmancial market innovation such as changes in regulation. Rather, it is necessary to investigate why volatility has changed, if it has changed, and the impact of such a change on the equity risk premium and the cost of equity capital to firms. Only then can inferences be drawn about the desirability or otherwise of innovations which bring about increases in volatility. Surprisingly, these issues have not been addressed in the literature. The evidence presented here suggests that the innovations which have taken place in the ISE have increased volatility, but also improved the pricing efficiency of the market and reduced the cost of equity capital to firms. Finally, the thesis tries to identify the conditions under which weak-form efficiency is consistent with technical analysis. It is shown that this paradox can be explained if adjustments to information are not immediate, such that market statistics, in particular statistics on trading volume contain information not impounded in current prices. In this context technical analysis on volume can be viewed as part of the process by which traders learn about fundamentals. Therefore, the thesis investigates the issue whether studying the joint dynamics of stock prices and trading volume can be used to predict weakly efficient stock prices. In summary, the findings of this thesis will be of interest to international investors, stock market regulators, firms raising funds from stock markets and participants in emerging capital markets in general. The implication of the results presented here is that informational efficient emerging markets are brought about by improving liquidity, ensuring that investors have access to high quality and reliable information and minimising the institutional restrictions on trading. In addition, the evolution in the regulatory framework of, and knowledge and awareness of investors in, emerging markets may mean that they will initially be characterised by inefficiency, but over time will develop into informational efficient and effectively functioning markets which allocate resources efficiently. In addition, the results of this thesis have important implications, for emerging markets in general, in identifying the regulatory framework that will achieve efficient pricing and a reduction in the cost of equity capital to firms operating in the economy.

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