MPM / Oliver Tambo Institute of Governance and Policy Studies

In South Africa household debt has increased rapidly over the past few years, therefore illustrating the importance of analysing liability usage behaviour of individual members within the household. In order to comprehend the behaviour of South Africans regarding liability usages, this study provides insight into why individuals find it necessary to obtain liability products as well as to indicate whether liability products are used to address the financial needs for the purpose it was developed for. To achieve the aim of this study, it was firstly necessary to develop a theoretical framework for the process of selecting credit products when satisfying financial needs. Secondly, the characteristics and intended usage purposes of different credit products available in South Africa were discussed and a debt classification framework was developed. Finally, data obtained from the Finscope South Africa survey was analysed according to the developed frameworks following a combination of two approaches. Firstly, a qualitative approach was used to identify the different financial needs which are satisfied when using liabilities. The financial needs identified were classified according to Alderfer’s existence relatedness growth (ERG) theory and the factors that have an influence on liability usage. Secondly, a quantitative approach was followed to indicate which financial needs are fulfilled when using different credit products. The results of this study suggest that individuals do not use liabilities only for the purpose what the products were originally developed for. The findings clearly indicated that individuals mainly use liabilities to satisfy basic needs which are classified as existence needs according to Alderfer’s ERG theory. Based on the data analysis a variety of factors such as access to credit and certain demographic characteristics have an influence on liability usage behaviour of individuals. The results further show that individuals mainly use informal, unsecured, short-term loans when satisfying their financial needs which might indicate that South Africans are unable to access formal credit products. / Financial Accounting / M. Phil. (Accounting Science)

In South Africa household debt has increased rapidly over the past few years, therefore illustrating the importance of analysing liability usage behaviour of individual members within the household. In order to comprehend the behaviour of South Africans regarding liability usages, this study provides insight into why individuals find it necessary to obtain liability products as well as to indicate whether liability products are used to address the financial needs for the purpose it was developed for. To achieve the aim of this study, it was firstly necessary to develop a theoretical framework for the process of selecting credit products when satisfying financial needs. Secondly, the characteristics and intended usage purposes of different credit products available in South Africa were discussed and a debt classification framework was developed. Finally, data obtained from the Finscope South Africa survey was analysed according to the developed frameworks following a combination of two approaches. Firstly, a qualitative approach was used to identify the different financial needs which are satisfied when using liabilities. The financial needs identified were classified according to Alderfer’s existence relatedness growth (ERG) theory and the factors that have an influence on liability usage. Secondly, a quantitative approach was followed to indicate which financial needs are fulfilled when using different credit products. The results of this study suggest that individuals do not use liabilities only for the purpose what the products were originally developed for. The findings clearly indicated that individuals mainly use liabilities to satisfy basic needs which are classified as existence needs according to Alderfer’s ERG theory. Based on the data analysis a variety of factors such as access to credit and certain demographic characteristics have an influence on liability usage behaviour of individuals. The results further show that individuals mainly use informal, unsecured, short-term loans when satisfying their financial needs which might indicate that South Africans are unable to access formal credit products. / Financial Accounting / M. Phil. (Accounting Science)

In the literature there are mixed results on the link between credit and agricultural output growth. Some authors argue that credit leads to growth in agricultural output. Others view growth as one of the factors that influence credit supply, thus growth leads and credit follows. By and large, studies have not endeavoured to establish the short-run impact of agricultural credit on output. They are generally limited in establishing the long-run relationship between credit and agricultural output and thus present a research gap in this respect. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by focusing on the finance-growth nexus at sectoral level as a departure from extant literature that has focused on the macroeconomic level. Using South African data, the study investigated the causal relationship between the supply of credit and agricultural output as well as whether the two are cointegrated and have a short-run relationship. The study found that bank credit and agricultural output are cointegrated. Using the error correction model (ECM), the results showed that, in the short-run, bank credit has a negative impact on agricultural output, reflecting the uncertainties of institutional credit in South Africa. However, the ECM coefficient shows that the supply of agricultural credit rapidly adjusts to short-term disturbances, indicating that there is no room for tardiness in the agricultural sector. The absence of institutional credit will immediately be replaced by availability of other credit facilities from non-institutional sources. Conventional Granger causality tests show unidirectional causality from (1) bank credit to agricultural output growth, (2) agricultural output to capital formation, (3) agricultural output to labour, (4) capital formation to credit, and (5) capital formation to labour, and a bi-directional causality between credit and labour. Noteworthy and significant for South Africa is that for the agricultural sector, the direction of causality is from finance to growth, in other words supply-leading, whereas at the macroeconomic level, the direction of causality is from economic growth to finance, in other words, demand-leading. Applying a structural equation modelling approach to survey data of smallholder farmers, the positive relationship between bank credit and agricultural output observed from analysis of secondary data was confirmed. / Business Management / DCOM (Business Management)

This study provides evidence of the relationship between bank-granted credit and business cycles in South Africa. The study is conducted in three phases, namely qualitative research (Phase I), quantitative research (Phase II) and econometric analysis (Phase III). A sequential (connected data) mixed methodology (Phase I and II) is used to collect and analyze primary data from market participants. The qualitative research (Phase I) involves structured interviews with influential or well informed people on the subject matter. Phase I of the study is used to understand the key determinants of bank credit in South Africa and to appreciate how each of the credit aggregates behaves during alternate business cycles. Qualitative survey results suggest key determinants of commercial bank credit in South Africa as economic growth, collateral value, bank competition, money supply, deposit liabilities, capital requirements, bank lending rates and inflation. The qualitative results are used to formulate questions of the structured survey questionnaire (Quantitative research- Phase II). The ANOVA and Pearman’s product correlation analysis techniques are used to assess relationship between variables. The quantitative results show that there is direct and positive relationship between bank lending behavior and credit aggregates namely economic growth, collateral value, bank competition and money supply. On the other hand, the results show that there is a negative relationship between credit growth and bank capital and lending rates. Overall, the quantitative findings show that bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. The survey results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Phase III of the study re-examines econometric relationship between bank lending and business cycles. The study employs cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques in order to test for existence of long-run relationship between the selected variables. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector. The econometric test results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between economic growth and bank credit extension. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa. Overall, the results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between macroeconomic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa needs to give policy priority to promotion and development of the real sector of the economy to propel and accelerate credit extension. Economic growth is considered as the significant policy variable to stimulate credit extension. The findings therefore hold important implications for both theory and policy. / Business Management / D.B.L.

Studies as described in the literature review indicate that most South Africans are highly in debt. The South African Reserve Bank’s quarterly bulletin is one of the prominent barometers for measuring household debt in the country and over the last five years has been indicating a steady decline but still very high household debt among South Africans. Studies have also shown that this relates to poor financial literacy and consumer ignorance in applying basic financial management practices. This is discussed in Chapter two of the study. The aim of the study was to determine the consumer debt level of the Department of Health public servants in Mahikeng, North West Province. This study used a consumer survey to measure consumer indebtedness among public servants in Mahikeng. The results of the study support literature in that the study found that most public servants are indebted. The findings also showed that 63% of the public servants spent more than 20% of their income in servicing debt. Thirteen per cent of the public servants taking part in the study had been served with either garnishee or emolument orders. The results of the study seem to suggest that public servants working for the Department of Health in Mahikeng and taking part in the study were indebted. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

In the literature there are mixed results on the link between credit and agricultural output growth. Some authors argue that credit leads to growth in agricultural output. Others view growth as one of the factors that influence credit supply, thus growth leads and credit follows. By and large, studies have not endeavoured to establish the short-run impact of agricultural credit on output. They are generally limited in establishing the long-run relationship between credit and agricultural output and thus present a research gap in this respect. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by focusing on the finance-growth nexus at sectoral level as a departure from extant literature that has focused on the macroeconomic level. Using South African data, the study investigated the causal relationship between the supply of credit and agricultural output as well as whether the two are cointegrated and have a short-run relationship. The study found that bank credit and agricultural output are cointegrated. Using the error correction model (ECM), the results showed that, in the short-run, bank credit has a negative impact on agricultural output, reflecting the uncertainties of institutional credit in South Africa. However, the ECM coefficient shows that the supply of agricultural credit rapidly adjusts to short-term disturbances, indicating that there is no room for tardiness in the agricultural sector. The absence of institutional credit will immediately be replaced by availability of other credit facilities from non-institutional sources. Conventional Granger causality tests show unidirectional causality from (1) bank credit to agricultural output growth, (2) agricultural output to capital formation, (3) agricultural output to labour, (4) capital formation to credit, and (5) capital formation to labour, and a bi-directional causality between credit and labour. Noteworthy and significant for South Africa is that for the agricultural sector, the direction of causality is from finance to growth, in other words supply-leading, whereas at the macroeconomic level, the direction of causality is from economic growth to finance, in other words, demand-leading. Applying a structural equation modelling approach to survey data of smallholder farmers, the positive relationship between bank credit and agricultural output observed from analysis of secondary data was confirmed. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

Studies as described in the literature review indicate that most South Africans are highly in debt. The South African Reserve Bank’s quarterly bulletin is one of the prominent barometers for measuring household debt in the country and over the last five years has been indicating a steady decline but still very high household debt among South Africans. Studies have also shown that this relates to poor financial literacy and consumer ignorance in applying basic financial management practices. This is discussed in Chapter two of the study. The aim of the study was to determine the consumer debt level of the Department of Health public servants in Mahikeng, North West Province. This study used a consumer survey to measure consumer indebtedness among public servants in Mahikeng. The results of the study support literature in that the study found that most public servants are indebted. The findings also showed that 63% of the public servants spent more than 20% of their income in servicing debt. Thirteen per cent of the public servants taking part in the study had been served with either garnishee or emolument orders. The results of the study seem to suggest that public servants working for the Department of Health in Mahikeng and taking part in the study were indebted. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

This study provides evidence of the relationship between bank-granted credit and business cycles in South Africa. The study is conducted in three phases, namely qualitative research (Phase I), quantitative research (Phase II) and econometric analysis (Phase III). A sequential (connected data) mixed methodology (Phase I and II) is used to collect and analyze primary data from market participants. The qualitative research (Phase I) involves structured interviews with influential or well informed people on the subject matter. Phase I of the study is used to understand the key determinants of bank credit in South Africa and to appreciate how each of the credit aggregates behaves during alternate business cycles. Qualitative survey results suggest key determinants of commercial bank credit in South Africa as economic growth, collateral value, bank competition, money supply, deposit liabilities, capital requirements, bank lending rates and inflation. The qualitative results are used to formulate questions of the structured survey questionnaire (Quantitative research- Phase II). The ANOVA and Pearman’s product correlation analysis techniques are used to assess relationship between variables. The quantitative results show that there is direct and positive relationship between bank lending behavior and credit aggregates namely economic growth, collateral value, bank competition and money supply. On the other hand, the results show that there is a negative relationship between credit growth and bank capital and lending rates. Overall, the quantitative findings show that bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. The survey results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Phase III of the study re-examines econometric relationship between bank lending and business cycles. The study employs cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques in order to test for existence of long-run relationship between the selected variables. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector. The econometric test results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between economic growth and bank credit extension. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa. Overall, the results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between macroeconomic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa needs to give policy priority to promotion and development of the real sector of the economy to propel and accelerate credit extension. Economic growth is considered as the significant policy variable to stimulate credit extension. The findings therefore hold important implications for both theory and policy. / Business Management / D.B.L.

In recent years, concern about food safety linked to health issues has seen a rise in private food safety standards in addition to the regulations set by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in collaboration with the World Health Organisation (WHO). These have presented challenges to producers and exporters of agricultural food products especially the producers of fresh fruits and vegetables. In spite of the food safety-linked challenges from the demand side, the vast range of business-environment forces pose equally formidable challenges that negatively impact on the exporting industries’ ability to maintain or improve their market shares and their ability to compete in world markets. The objective of this study was therefore to establish the competitiveness of the South African citrus industry in the international markets within this prevailing scenario. Due to the diversity of the definitions of competitiveness as a concept, this study formulated the following working definition: “the ability to create, deliver and maintain value and constant market share through strategic management of the industrial environment or competitiveness drivers”. This was based on the understanding that the international market shares of an industry are a function of forces in the business environment which range from intra-industry, external and national as well as the international elements. The unit of analysis were the citrus producers engaged in export of their products and the study made use of 151 responses by producers. The study adopted a five-step approach to the analysis of the performance of the South African citrus industry in the global markets, starting with the analysis of the Constant Market Share (CMS) of the South African citrus industry in various world markets, establishing the impact of the business environmental factors upon competitiveness, establishing the costs of compliance with private food safety standards, determining the non-price benefits of compliance with the standards, as well as highlighting the strategies for enhancing long-term competitiveness of the industry in the international markets. South Africa is one of the top three countries dominating the citrus fruit export market. Since its entry into the citrus fruit exports market in the 1900s, the industry has sustained its activity in the international market. The Constant Market Share Analysis shows that, amidst the challenges on the international market side, and the changes in the business environment, over much of which the industry has limited control and influence, the industry has maintained its competitive advantage in several markets. The CMS shows that South Africa’s lemons are competitive in America. Despite a negative trend, the South African grapefruit has been competitive in France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Oranges have been competitive in the Greece, Italy, Portugal, UK, Asian and Northern Europe markets. Competitiveness in these markets has been due to the inherent competitiveness of the industry. Competitiveness in such markets as the Middle East has been attributed to the relatively rapid growth of these markets. The South African citrus industry has similarly undergone many major processes of transformation. The business environmental factors influencing its performance have ranged reform to the challenges beyond the country’s borders. These factors directly and indirectly affect the performance of the industry in the export market. They have influenced the flow of fruits into different international destinations. Of major concern are the food safety and private standards. Challenges in traditional markets as well as opportunities presented by demand from newly emerging citrus consuming nations have seen a diversification in the marketing of the South African citrus. The intensity of competition in the global market is reflected by the fluctuations in the market shares in different markets as well as the increase and fluctuations of fruit rejection rates in some lucrative markets such as America. A combination of challenging national environmental forces and stringent demand conditions negatively impact on revenues especially from markets characterised by price competitiveness. This study identified cost of production, foreign market support systems, adaptability, worker skills, challenges of management in an international environment and government policies such as labour and trade policies as some of the most influential obstacles to competitiveness. Some of the most competiveness-enhancing factors were market availability, market size, market information, market growth and the availability of research institutions. However, compliance with private standards still poses a challenge to the exporters. The different performance levels of the industry in various markets prove the dissimilarity of the demand conditions in the global market. These are supported by the negative influence associated with the foreign market support regimes as well as the challenges associated with compliance with private food safety standards. While market availability, market growth, market information and size were identified as enhancing competitiveness, the fluctuations and inconsistencies in the competitiveness of the industry in different foreign markets require more than finding markets. Resource allocation by both the government and the industry may need to take into account the off-setting of the national challenges and support of farmers faced with distorted and unfair international playing fields. Otherwise, market availability is not a challenge for the industry save meeting the specifications therewith as well as price competitiveness which is unattainable for the South African citrus producers faced with high production costs. For the purposes of further study, it is recommended that account should be taken of all the products marketed by the industry (including processed products such as fruit juices) in order to have a whole picture of the competitiveness of the industry in the international market. This study also proffers a new theoretical framework for the analysis of the business environment for the citrus industry and other agro-businesses. This framework takes into account the indispensability of the food safety standards and measures as well as the diversity of the global consumer and the non-negotiability of food trade for the sustenance of the growing population.