In this thesis, I imply a forward-looking systematic factor from CDO market spreads; I show that this factor is a measure of CDO market's expectation of future default correlation, and I empirically show that it is positively related to bond credit spreads. From this, I infer that corporate bond credit spreads are positively related to expected default correlation. The forward-looking factor stems from a CDO valuation model that I propose. The model assumes default can be characterized as a random event that occurs with an uncertain hazard rate that is mixture-Weibull distributed. Calibrating the model to CDO market spreads implies the model parameters. Using two and three mixing densities and data spanning January 2004 to February 2008, I show that the model calibrates to both the North American and European investment grade CDOs with negligible error. The factor I imply from the CDO market quotes is the standard deviation of the implied hazard rate density. I then show that the standard deviation of the implied hazard rate density increases as default correlation increases. This is done by characterizing firms' defaults with stochastic hazard rates that are defined by jump-diffusion processes that are correlated only through the Weiner processes, only through systematic jumps, or both. I use the models to generate CDO model spreads that are used to imply mixture-Weibull hazard rate densities. In addition, I provide evidence that the implied hazard rate density standard deviation has time variation that is independent to that of other common systematic factors. Lastly, I show that bond credit spreads are positively correlated with the standard deviation of the implied hazard rate density, and I conclude that credit spreads are positively related to expected default correlation. I provide evidence that firms' credit spreads are decreasing in firm diversity; that credit spread sensitivity to default correlation is decreasing in firm equity option implied volatility and decreasing in firm diversity; and that the variation in high credit quality bond spreads is predominantly explained by systematic factors whereas the variation in low credit quality bond spreads is explained by systematic and idiosyncratic factors.

There is no bank in Taiwan who doesn¡¦t prepare meticulously for implementation of The New Basel Capital Accord coming in 2007.Banking is more complex in recent years, except tranditional loans and investments.The products of derivatives are to change with each passing day under rapid development of financial engineering among which the credit derivatives not only can transfer credit risks,but also be a tool admitted within Basel II for mitigation,so This research is to prob into Basel II and the function of credit derivatives affecting the management strategy of medium and small-sized non-financial holding banks. This research was adopted qualitative methods which is to select two medium and small-sized non-financial holding banks whose total assets are beneath NT$600 billions at the end of Year 95 as interview cases,and conducted in-depth interviews with officers of the two banks.The interview result obtained was induced and analyzed found as follow: 1. The constitution of medium and small-sized non-financial holding banks is generally not sound. 2. The medium and small-sized non-financial holding banks have limited weakness of resoures and credit rating relatively,and will suffer biggest impact after implementation of Basel II. 3. Banks will execute a more strict lending policy to avoid over-risky loan assets and boost the efficiency of capital utility. 4. The medium and small-sized banks have no room and ability to develop and design the products of credit derivatives at present. 5. The effects of mitigation resulted from using the tool of credit derivatives or securitization of financial assets require observing. 6. As The banking industry changes,Lebensraum of the medium and small-sized banks becomes more and more limited.They should seek to keep strategic alliance with or to be merged by large-scale financial holding company or foreign bank for survival.

As evidenced by its market size, credit default swaps (CDSs) has been the cornerstone product of the credit derivatives market. The central question that I attempt to answer in this thesis is: why and how does the introduction of CDS market affect bank loan financing? Theoretical works predict some potential effects from CDS market, but empirical evidence is still rare. This dissertation empirically examines the effects of CDS trading on bank loan financing. In chapter one, I find that banks increase average loan amount and charge higher loan spread after the onset of CDS trading on the borrower’s debt. Also, credit quality of the borrower deteriorates for those with active CDS trading. These findings suggest that banks tend to take on more credit risk by issuing larger loans and by lending to riskier firms that could not obtain bank loan in the absence of CDS. The risk-taking by banks ultimately transmitted to higher bank-level risk profile. The second chapter is the first empirical study of CDS’ role in determining loan syndicate structure. I find larger lead bank share when CDS is in place. Moreover, participation of credit derivatives trading by lead banks is much larger than by the participants, suggesting that lead banks have better chance to use CDS to their own advantage. Further analysis shows that lead banks retain an even larger share when it is more experienced dealing with the borrower and when information asymmetry between the lender and the borrower is less severe. Different from conventional wisdom about moral hazard in syndicated lending, our findings suggest that the lead bank likely takes on more credit risk voluntarily due to its increased financing capacity. The third chapter focuses on the effects of CDS on debt contracting. Given that current evidence does not show CDS reduces average cost of debt, we conjecture that the diversification benefit is reflected by relaxation of restrictions imposed on borrowers. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find the marginal effect from CDS trading on covenant strictness measure is 16.8% on average. One standard deviation increase in the number of outstanding CDS contracts loosens net worth covenants by approximately 8.9%. Using various endogeneity controls, we are able to show the loosening of covenants is due to the reduced level of debtholder-shareholder conflict. Furthermore, the loosening effect is stronger when the expected renegotiation cost is larger, consistent with the view that CDS mitigates contracting friction and improves contracting efficiency. Overall, this dissertation attempts to provide first empirical evidence on how CDS affects bank loan financing. We focus the analysis on loan issuance, syndicate structure and contracting. The findings suggest that banks lend to riskier borrowers in the presence of CDS. On a positive note, banks tend to impose less restrictive covenants on its borrower, which may mitigate frictions in lending market in terms of ex ante bargaining and ex post renegotiation cost. / published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-131). Also available in electronic version. Access restricted to campus users.

Thesis advisor: Jarjisu Sa-Aadu. Includes bibliographic references (p. 130).

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / The first two chapters give the background, history and overview of the dissertation, together with the necessary mathematical preliminaries. Thereafter, the next four chapters deal with credit risk and credit derivatives.The final part of the dissertation is devoted to the Basel II bank regulatory framework and the mathematical modeling of asset allocation in bank management, pertaining to credit risk.Credit risk models can be categorized into two groups known as structural models and reduced form models. These models are used in pricing and hedging credit risk. In this thesis we review a variety of credit risk instruments described by models of the said types. One of the strategies utilized by companies to mitigate credit risk is by using credit derivatives.In this thesis, five main types of risk derivatives have been considered: credit swaps, credit linked notes, credit spreads, total return swaps and collaterized debt obligations. Valuation models for the first three derivatives that are mentioned above, are also presented in this dissertation.The material presented include some of the most recent developments in the literature. Our methods range from single-period modeling to application of stochastic optimal control theory. We expand on the material presented from the literature by way of simplifying or clarifying proofs, and by adding illustrative examples in the form of calculations, tables and simulations.Also, the entire Chapter 6 is a new original contribution to the existing literature on mathematical modeling of credit risk. Key words: credit risk; default risk; structural approach; reduced form approach; incomplete information approach; investment strategy; Basel II regulatory framework

Credit derivatives are one of the most often discussed instruments which influenced the mortgage crisis in USA and consequently also the global financial crisis. Credit derivatives are complex instruments. The aim of this thesis is to describe credit derivatives, dealing with them, analyse the situation on the housing market in USA, determine what the role of credit derivatives in the crisis was and analyse other factors, which contributed to the creation of the crisis.

The main objective of this thesis is to acquaint the reader with the main types of credit derivatives, with the methods of functioning and with main valuation principles. The theoretical part focus on description of credit derivatives market developement with more detailed description of subjcts, who are operating on credit derivatives market. The analysis fosus on how the financial crises influenced these subjects and their credit derivatives portfolios. I have also described the new suggested regulation changes. As a conclusion is the estimation of the regulation changes on the credit derivatives market size.

This thesis investigates correlations and linkages in credit risk that widely exist in all sectors of the financial markets. The main body of this thesis is constructed around four empirical chapters. I started with extending two main issues focused by earlier empirical studies on credit derivatives markets: the determinants of CDS spreads and the relationship between CDS spreads and bond yield spreads, with a special focus on the effect of the subprime crisis. By having observed that the linear relationship can not fully explain the variation in CDS spreads, the third empirical chapter investigated the dependence structure between CDS spread changes and market variables using a nonlinear copula method. The last chapter investigated the relationship between the CDS spread and another credit spread - the TED spread, in that a MVGARCH model and twelve copulas are set forth including three time varying copulas. The results of this thesis greatly enhanced our understanding about the effect of the subprime crisis on the credit default swap market, upon which a set of useful practical suggestions are made to policy makers and market participants.

The thesis is focused on the process of trading in credit derivatives on the global financial markets. The first part deals with the history and the development of credit derivatives from the very beginning to the present and all factors that influenced and affected them during that time. Various derivative instruments are explained, in terms of their purpose, suitability for use and the risks arising from them. Mainy focus of the thesis is put on the selected stock markets (CME Group Inc., Eurex AG, NYSE Liff Holdings LLC). This section begins with their history, then it describes their structure and purpose. It explains stock market membership conditions and settlement of exchange contracts principles. The final part clarifies the role of credit derivatives in the financial crisis and the reasons that led to it. In the final part of the thesis organizations that regulate credit derivatives are described, in addition to regulation methods and aids, specifically in terms of new regulatory measures under Basel III and the organization of ISDA, which are also included. At the very end the possibilities of securitization and credit risk diversification are explained as well as methods of credit instruments valuation, which are demonstrated on an example of Credit Default Swap.