In this thesis, we address issues of model estimation for longitudinal categorical data and of model selection for these data with missing covariates. Longitudinal survey data capture the responses of each subject repeatedly through time, allowing for the separation of variation in the measured variable of interest across time for one subject from the variation in that variable among all subjects. Questions concerning persistence, patterns of structure, interaction of events and stability of multivariate relationships can be answered through longitudinal data analysis. Longitudinal data require special statistical methods because they must take into account the correlation between observations recorded on one subject. A further complication in analysing longitudinal data is accounting for the non- response or drop-out process. Potentially, the missing values are correlated with variables under study and hence cannot be totally excluded. Firstly, we investigate a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject is observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia. Secondly, we examine the Bayesian model selection techniques of the Bayes factor and Deviance Information Criterion for our regression models with miss- ing covariates. Computing Bayes factors involve computing the often complex marginal likelihood p(y|model) and various authors have presented methods to estimate this quantity. Here, we take the approach of path sampling via power posteriors (Friel and Pettitt, 2006). The appeal of this method is that for hierarchical regression models with missing covariates, a common occurrence in longitudinal data analysis, it is straightforward to calculate and interpret since integration over all parameters, including the imputed missing covariates and the random effects, is carried out automatically with minimal added complexi- ties of modelling or computation. We apply this technique to compare models for the employment status of immigrants to Australia. Finally, we also develop a model choice criterion based on the Deviance In- formation Criterion (DIC), similar to Celeux et al. (2006), but which is suitable for use with generalized linear models (GLMs) when covariates are missing at random. We define three different DICs: the marginal, where the missing data are averaged out of the likelihood; the complete, where the joint likelihood for response and covariates is considered; and the naive, where the likelihood is found assuming the missing values are parameters. These three versions have different computational complexities. We investigate through simulation the performance of these three different DICs for GLMs consisting of normally, binomially and multinomially distributed data with missing covariates having a normal distribution. We find that the marginal DIC and the estimate of the effective number of parameters, pD, have desirable properties appropriately indicating the true model for the response under differing amounts of missingness of the covariates. We find that the complete DIC is inappropriate generally in this context as it is extremely sensitive to the degree of missingness of the covariate model. Our new methodology is illustrated by analysing the results of a community survey.

Cette étude concerne l’influence de la formulation sur les propriétés en fatigue des élastomères. Pour cela, douze matériaux ont été préalablement choisis de façon à ce que leur formulation soit simplifiée mais représentative de celles de matériaux industriels. La première partie de l’étude vise la description des mécanismes et des scénarios d’endommagement par fatigue, pour différents matériaux, niveaux de sollicitation et pourcentages de durée de vie. Une vaste campagne d’essais de fatigue interrompus a été menée permettant une analyse statistique de la population de défauts. Ces données ont permis d’une part de proposer des scénarios de ruine pour les différents matériaux étudiés, et d’autre part d’identifier deux types de mécanismes d’amorçage autour d’inclusions de différentes natures. La deuxième partie de l’étude vise à comprendre les mécanismes d’amorçage de fissure de fatigue. Un protocole expérimental permettant d’obtenir les champs d’énergie dissipée directement à partir des champs de température mesurés a été mis en place. Ce protocole a d’abord été développé à une échelle macroscopique et validé grâce à des simulations par éléments finis. Il a ensuite été appliqué avec succès à l’échelle des inclusions pour des cas 2D. Enfin, la troisième partie de cette étude propose un critère énergétique basé sur un protocole d’auto-échauffement permettant une détermination rapide des propriétés en fatigue. L’approche proposée utilise un critère à deux paramètres et permet de prédire la courbe de Wöhler déterministe avec une seule éprouvette, en une demi-journée d’essai et uniquement à partir de mesures thermiques. Ce critère a été validé sur une large gamme d’élastomères, et s’avère capable de rendre compte de l’influence de la gomme, du taux et du type de charges. / This study deals with the influence of the formulation on the fatigue properties of elastomeric materials. Twelve materials have been chosen so that their formulations are simplified but representative of these used in the industry. The first part of the study aims to describe the fatigue damage mechanisms and scenarios, for different materials, strain levels and fatigue life durations. A large experimental campaign of interrupted fatigue tests has been performed enabling a statistical analysis of the defects population. On one hand, these data led to propose damage scenarios for the studied materials, and on the other hand, to identify two classes of initiation mechanisms around different nature of inclusions. The second part of this study aims to better understand the fatigue crack initiation mechanisms. An experimental protocol enabling to obtain directly the dissipated energy fields from the measurement of the temperature fields has been set up. This protocol has been first developed at the macroscopic scale and validated thanks to numerical simulations. Then, it has been applied successfully at the scale of inclusions for 2D cases. Finally, the third part of this study suggests an energetic criterion based on a heat build-up protocol leading a fast determination of the fatigue properties. This approach uses a criterion with two parameters and is able to predict the deterministic Wöhler curve with one sample, in half a day and thanks to thermal measurements only. This criterion has been validated on a wide range of elastomeric materials and is able to reflect the influence of the gum, the type and the amount of carbon black.

The Diploma Thesis named Case Study: Implementing Formative Assessment into Education focuses on formative assessment and its place as well as specifics in educational reality from two perspectives - it aims at first-hand experience of teachers and pupils, and it also examines the whole-school process of implementing this change into education. The thesis' goal is to identify formative assessment as means of functional feedback between teachers and pupils, and to offer personal experience with implementing formative assessment into education from the point of view of teachers as well as pupils. The theoretical part characterises the formative assessment's major features along with methods and techniques and their respective benefits. The theoretical part further offers an overlook of how the process of implementing changes into schools can be managed. The empirical part then presents findings from a research aimed at implementing specific parts of formative assessment into practice at a selected school. Finally, the results point out mainly the crucial influence of management of the change on the overall outcome of the process and the gradual change of views and motivations of leading actors. KEYWORDS formative assessment, feedback, peer assessment, self-assessment, criterion-referenced assessment,...

Submitted by Marcio Emanuel Paixão Santos (marcio.santos@ucsal.br) on 2017-02-18T12:27:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MONOGRAFIA FREDERICO AMADO ULTIMA.pdf: 722014 bytes, checksum: 6227d3c7502f25b254fe514790ef01e2 (MD5) / Rejected by Maria Emília Carvalho Ribeiro (maria.ribeiro@ucsal.br), reason: Correções on 2017-02-22T18:20:22Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcio Emanuel Paixão Santos (marcio.santos@ucsal.br) on 2017-02-22T23:45:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MONOGRAFIA FREDERICO AMADO ULTIMA.pdf: 722014 bytes, checksum: 6227d3c7502f25b254fe514790ef01e2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Emília Carvalho Ribeiro (maria.ribeiro@ucsal.br) on 2017-03-03T15:31:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MONOGRAFIA FREDERICO AMADO ULTIMA.pdf: 722014 bytes, checksum: 6227d3c7502f25b254fe514790ef01e2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-03T15:31:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MONOGRAFIA FREDERICO AMADO ULTIMA.pdf: 722014 bytes, checksum: 6227d3c7502f25b254fe514790ef01e2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-01 / É competência comum entre a União, os estados, o Distrito Federal e os municípios preservar o meio ambiente e controlar a poluição em todas as suas formas. Isso significa que todas as pessoas políticas deverão praticar atos materiais visando a preservação ambiental e a regulação da poluição. Certamente o instrumento que mais concretiza essa atribuição constitucional atribuída aos entes políticos é o licenciamento ambiental, consectário do poder de polícia ambiental, pois todas as atividades aptas a gerar degradação ambiental deverão ser previamente licenciadas pelo órgão ambiental competente. Entretanto, é muito comum que haja conflitos entre os órgãos ambientais de diferentes esferas para a definição da competência para licenciar, o que atrasa o desenvolvimento das atividades econômicas e vulnera o pacto federativo brasileiro, pois gera enorme insegurança jurídica. A legislação ambiental prevê o critério da extensão do dano e o critério a dominialidade do bem afetável como parâmetros de definição da competência para licenciar, mas não diz expressamente qual o critério preponderante. Tendo em vista que as competências ambientais comuns entre todas as esferas de governo devem ser reguladas por lei complementar até o momento não promulgada, inserindo-se o licenciamento ambiental nessa seara, tramita no Congresso Nacional o projeto de lei complementar 12/2003. De última hora, foi aprovada na Câmara dos Deputados a Emenda substitutiva global 01/2009, no dia 16.12.2009, aguardando votação no Senado da República em 2011. Esse projeto visa a regulamentar as competências ambientais comuns e que traz um tratamento pormenorizado das competências licenciatórias dos entes políticos. / It is common responsibility between the federal, state, Federal District and municipalities to preserve the environment and control pollution in all its forms. This means that everyone must pursue political acts aimed at environmental preservation materials and the regulation of pollution. Certainly the instrument that implements the constitutional powers allocated to political entities is the environmental licensing of power consectário environmental police force, for all activities able to generate environmental degradation should first be licensed by the competent environmental agency. However, it is very common for conflicts among the different spheres of environmental agencies to define the responsibility for licensing, which delays the development of economic and violates the Brazilian federative pact, because it generates enormous legal uncertainty. Environmental legislation provides for the criterion of the extent of damage and the dominion of the criterion as well afetável parameters defining the powers to license, but does not expressly say that the overriding criterion. Considering that the common environmental responsibilities among all levels of government must be regulated by complementary law not yet enacted, by inserting the environmental licensing in this field, it debated by Congress the bill supplementary 12/2003. Last minute, was approved in the House Amendment to substitute global 01/2009, on 16.12.2009, awaiting vote in the Senate of the Republic in 2011. This project aims to regulate the powers shared environmental and that brings a detailed treatment of the licensing responsibilities of political entities.

O objetivo do presente trabalho foi determinar o papel da integração sensório-motora sobre o efeito do estímulo precedente visual. A investigação também teve a intenção de delimitar a estratégia relacionada à modulação do efeito do estímulo precedente. Para isso, foram utilizadas variações de tarefas de tempo de reação (TR) de escolha, e os dados de TR e acurácia foram analisados. Encontramos uma propensão a antecipar respostas na tarefa de TR de escolha de local, devido ao aparecimento do estímulo precedente. A análise revelou uma troca velocidade-acurácia, indicativa de mudança no critério. Uma adaptação da Teoria de Detecção de Sinais mostrou que o critério de decisão foi elevado, evitando erros de antecipação e de alarmes falsos. A tarefa de TR de escolha de forma apresentou diminuição nos tempos de reação no local do estímulo precedente, sem trocas de velocidade por acurácia. Nossos resultados principais indicam que a integração de estímulo e resposta pode interferir no efeito do estímulo precedente através de modulações de estratégia, dependentes de características do estímulo relevantes à tarefa em questão. / The aim of the present work was to determine the role of sensory-motor integration on the effect of the visual prime stimulus. The investigation intended also to delimit the strategy related to this prime stimulus effect modulation. In order to do that, variations of choice reaction time (RT) task were used, and RT and accuracy data were analyzed. We found a propensity to anticipate responses in the location-based choice RT task, due to the onset of the prime stimulus. The analysis revealed a speed-accuracy trade-off, indicative of criterion shift. An adaptation of the Signal Detection Theory showed that the decision criterion was raised, avoiding anticipatory and false alarm errors. The form-based choice RT task presented decrease in response time in the prime stimulus location, with no speed-accuracy trade-offs. Our main results indicate that stimulus-response integration can interfere with the prime stimulus effect through strategic modulations dependent on stimuli features relevant to the task in hand.

The main goal of this dissertation work was to analyze of practical use the System Balanced Scorecard in controlled processes of chosen company, to analyze actual stage of strategically management, to propose implementing System BSC and to determine strategically goals including its deployment into action planes. Based on these proposals to verify selected part of this model and following the results to propose possible changes.

O presente trabalho visa o estudo e avaliação de diversos modelos de falha através de ensaios experimentais e análises numéricas. A caracterização do material foi feita por meio de ensaios de tração de espécimes com e sem entalhe e de cisalhamento, para prover dados em uma ampla faixa de triaxialidade. A calibração dos parâmetros necessários para cada modelo de falha ocorreu através da obtenção das componentes de tensões e de deformações na região de ruptura, obtidas por meio de análises numéricas destes ensaios. O critério da máxima deformação plástica equivalente, modelo de dano de Johnson-Cook e critério da máxima tensão cisalhante foram aplicados em um caso de impacto em pára-choque. Diversos ensaios de impacto foram realizados até a que se atingisse a ruptura satisfatória do componente. Os ensaios foram modelados em elementos finitos, através do programa comercial LS-Dyna®, sendo que os modelos de falha calibrados foram aplicados para o ensaio onde se ocorreu ruptura. Houve boa concordância entre os resultados obtidos numericamente e experimentalmente, respeitadas as observações realizadas acerca da especificidade deste caso de impacto em baixa velocidade. / The aim of the present work is an assessment of several fracture models through experiments and numerical simulations. Tensile tests with notched and unnotched specimens were carried out to provide the material characterization in a wide range of stress triaxiality. The calibration of the parameters required by the fracture models was enabled by the parallel numerical simulation of the tensile tests, providing information on the stress and strain components at the failure locus. The constant equivalent strain criterion, the Johnson-Cook failure model and the maximum shear stress failure criterion were applied in a bumper beam impact case study. Several low speed impact tests were carried out in order to result in the components rupture. Numerical simulation of the experiments was performed using commercial finite element code LS-Dyna®. Good correlation of experiments and numerical simulations was achieved when considering this particular low speed case study.

O presente estudo pretendeu, por meio de uma abordagem qualitativa investigar quais os critérios utilizados pelas professoras das pré-escolas públicas do município de Osasco para promover alunos com necessidades educacionais especiais, assim denominados por apresentarem deficiência intelectual, de uma fase para outra e após essa etapa de escolarização. O suporte teórico fundamentou-se na legislação educacional nacional, estadual e municipal, além de produções de autores renomados na área sobre educação infantil, educação especial e avaliação da aprendizagem. Utilizaram-se, também, documentos internacionais que subsidiaram a elaboração de legislação nacional referente ao atendimento de pessoas com necessidades educacionais especiais. Foram selecionadas duas escolas, uma na zona Norte e outra na zona Sul do referido município. Fizeram parte da amostra cinco professoras e cinco alunos que se encaixavam no objetivo da pesquisa. Para complementar os dados coletados junto às professoras, foram entrevistadas também as ex-diretoras das escolas, assim como especialistas da Equipe de Apoio Interdisciplinar. Da análise das entrevistas, verificou-se que as professoras apontaram a idade como sendo critério para promoção dos alunos, tanto de uma fase para outra, como após a pré-escola. Contudo, em alguns casos, os alunos permaneciam por mais tempo na pré-escola o que era justificado pelas necessidades específicas apresentadas por eles e a permanência nessa etapa por mais tempo era avaliada, nesses casos, como benéfica para seu desenvolvimento e aprendizagem. A partir dos dados coletados, verificou-se que as escolas que fizeram parte da amostra da pesquisa adotam, para a quase totalidade dos alunos, a concepção de avaliação utilizada na Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educação (Lei nº 9394/96) para a educação infantil, não tendo, assim, finalidade de promoção nem mesmo para acesso ao ensino fundamental. / This study aimed, using a qualitative approach, to investigate which criterion were used by the preschool teachers in public schools in the municipality of Osasco to promote students with special needs, so called for presenting intellectual deficiency, from one phase to another and after this stage of education. The theoretical support was based on the national, state and municipal educational legislation, besides the productions of famous authors in the area on preschool education, special education and evaluation of learning. It was also used international documents that helped the development of the national legislation about attention to people with special educacional needs. Two schools, one in the North zone and another one in the South zone of the city that had been selected. Five teachers and five students, who fit in the objective of the research, had been part of the sample. The formerdirectors of the schools had also been interviewed, as well as specialists of the Equipe de Apoio Interdisciplinar to complement the data collected from the teachers. From the analysis of the interviews, it was verified that the teachers had pointed the age as the criterion of student´s promotion from one phase to another and after preschool. However, in some cases the students remained for more time in the preschool, what was justified by the student´s specific needs and their longer permanence at this stage was evaluated as beneficial to theis development and learning. From the collected data, it was verified that the schools that had been part of the sample of the research adopt, for almost all students, the conception of evaluation used in Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educação (Law nº 9394/96) to early childhood education, so it does not have the purpose of promotion, nor the access to primary school.

Quando um conjunto de dados possui uma estrutura hierárquica, uma possível abordagem são os modelos de regressão multiníveis, que se justifica pelo fato de haver uma porção significativa da variabilidade dos dados que pode ser explicada por níveis macro. Neste trabalho, desenvolvemos a seleção de modelos de regressão multinível aplicados a dados educacionais. Esta análise divide-se em duas partes: seleção de variáveis e seleção de modelos. Esta última subdivide-se em dois casos: modelagem clássica e modelagem bayesiana. Buscamos através de critérios como o Lasso, AIC, BIC, WAIC entre outros, encontrar quais são os fatores que influenciam no desempenho em matemática dos alunos do nono ano do ensino fundamental do estado de São Paulo. Também investigamos o funcionamento de cada um dos critérios de seleção de variáveis e de modelos. Foi possível concluir que, sob a abordagem frequentista, o critério de seleção de modelos BIC é o mais eficiente, já na abordagem bayesiana, o critérioWAIC apresentou melhores resultados. Utilizando o critério de seleção de variáveis Lasso para abordagem clássica, houve uma diminuição de 34% dos preditores do modelo. Por fim, identificamos que o desempenho em matemática dos estudantes do nono ano do ensino fundamental do estado de São Paulo é influenciado pelas seguintes covariáveis: grau de instrução da mãe, frequência de leitura de livros, tempo gasto com recreação em dia de aula, o fato de gostar de matemática, o desempenho em matemática global da escola, desempenho em língua portuguesa do aluno, dependência administrativa da escola, sexo, grau de instrução do pai, reprovações e distorção idade-série. / When a dataset contains a hierarchical data structure, a possible approach is the multilevel regression modelling, which is justified by the significative amout of the data variability that can be explained by macro level processes. In this work, a selection of multilevel regression models for educational data is developed. This analysis is divided into two parts: variable selection and model selection. The latter is subdivided into two categories: classical and Bayesian modeling. Traditional criteria for model selection such as Lasso, AIC, BIC, and WAIC, among others are used in this study as an attempt to identify the factors influencing ninth grade students performance in Mathematics of elementary education in the State of São Paulo. Likewise, an investigation was conducted to evaluate the performance of each variable selection criteria and model selection methods applied to fitted models that will be mentioned throughout this work. It was possible to conclude that, under the frequentist approach, BIC is the most efficient, whereas under the bayesian approach, WAIC presented better results. Using Lasso under the frequentist approach, a decrease of 34% on the number of predictors was observed. Finally, we identified that the performance in Mathematics of students in the ninth year of elementary school in the state of São Paulo is most influenced by the following covariates: mothers educational level, frequency of book reading, time spent with recreation in classroom, the fact of liking Math, school global performance in Mathematics, performance in Portuguese, school administrative dependence, gender, fathers educational degree, failures and age-grade distortion.

Esse estudo tem como objetivo avaliar a mudanÃa ocorrida em 2007 nos critÃrios de repasse das cotas-parte do ICMS aos municÃpios cearenses. Para tanto, serà feita uma anÃlise comparativa entre o critÃrio anterior â baseado nos gastos â e o atual â que o qualifica atravÃs do desempenho nos setores educaÃÃo, saÃde e meio ambiente e quantifica pelo VAF. Com isso, a nova metodologia de cÃlculo dos Ãndices que sÃo atribuÃdos aos municÃpios trouxe um grande avanÃo em termos de responsabilidade fiscal e controle nos gastos pÃblicos. No sentido de avaliar o efeito dessas mudanÃas sobre a redistribuiÃÃo dos recursos, sÃo analisados os impactos de curto prazo nos indicadores econÃmicos e sociais que ocasionaram mudanÃas nas contas dos municÃpios, determinando o perfil dos que foram beneficiados ou prejudicados. A anÃlise quantitativa aponta que foi alcanÃado o objetivo da mudanÃa metodolÃgica, isto Ã, tornar a transferÃncia com carÃter mais distributivo e meritocrÃtico. NÃo obstante, o sistema de ponderaÃÃo dos Ãndices, por ter sido criado em bases ad hoc, poderia ser reavaliado para permitir uma reduÃÃo do peso do Valor Adicionado Fiscal nesses Ãndices e evitar concentraÃÃo dos repasses do ICMS. Para isso, sÃo construÃdos trÃs cenÃrios: i) Concentrador â considera o critÃrio atual baseado na ponderaÃÃo legal ora existente; ii) Menos concentrador â à a simulaÃÃo de um critÃrio baseado numa ponderaÃÃo menos concentradora; iii) Equitativo â à a simulaÃÃo de um critÃrio baseado em 50% no IVA, e o restante distribuÃdo nas variÃveis de desempenho. Conclui-se que, ao se desconcentrar a ponderaÃÃo no IVA, atribuindo maior peso Ãs demais componentes do Ãndice, a caracterÃstica metodolÃgica do cÃlculo do repasse se torna mais meritocrÃtica e menos distributiva, beneficiando um maior nÃmero de municÃpios de menor porte. / This study aims to evaluate the change in 2007 on the criteria for transfer of shares in the ICMS to municipalities in CearÃ. For both, there will be a comparative analysis between the previous criteria - based on spending - and current - which qualifies through the performance in the sectors education, health and environment, and quantifies the VAF. Thus, the methodology of calculation of indices that are assigned to municipalities brought a breakthrough in terms of fiscal responsibility and control public spending. To assess the effect of these changes on the redistribution of resources, are examined in short-term impacts on economic and social indicators that caused changes in the accounts of municipalities, determining the profile of those that have obtained benefit or loss from it. Quantitative analysis shows that the methodological change has reached the goal of making the transfer more distributive and meritocratic. Since the weighting of the indexes has been created on ad hoc basis, it could be reassessed to allow a weight reduction of Value Added Tax on it to prevent concentration of transfers from the ICMS. To do so, three scenarios are built up for the indexes: i) Concentrating â considers the current official criterion; ii) Less concentrating â simulates a criterion based upon a more distributive transfer; iii) Equitable â simulates a criterion by distributing 50% of the transfer based upon the IVA and the remaining distributed equally among the performance variables. It is concluded that, as long as the weights on the IVA are smaller and greater to the other components, the methodological characteristics of calculating the transfer becomes more meritocratic and less distributive and benefits a larger amount of less developed municipalities.