The effects of high levels of radiation are frequently studied, but the effects of very lowdose irradiation are still unknown even in today?s technology-driven world. A study recently carried out at Texas A

Bayesian subset selection suffers from three important difficulties: assigning priors over model space, assigning priors to all components of the regression coefficients vector given a specific model and Bayesian computational efficiency (Chen et al., 1999). These difficulties become more challenging in Bayesian quantile regression framework when one is interested in assigning priors that depend on different quantile levels. The objective of Bayesian quantile regression (BQR), which is a newly proposed tool, is to deal with unknown parameters and model uncertainty in quantile regression (QR). However, Bayesian subset selection in quantile regression models is usually a difficult issue due to the computational challenges and nonavailability of conjugate prior distributions that are dependent on the quantile level. These challenges are rarely addressed via either penalised likelihood function or stochastic search variable selection (SSVS). These methods typically use symmetric prior distributions for regression coefficients, such as the Gaussian and Laplace, which may be suitable for median regression. However, an extreme quantile regression should have different regression coefficients from the median regression, and thus the priors for quantile regression coefficients should depend on quantiles. This thesis focuses on three challenges: assigning standard quantile dependent prior distributions for the regression coefficients, assigning suitable quantile dependent priors over model space and achieving computational efficiency. The first of these challenges is studied in Chapter 2 in which a quantile dependent prior elicitation scheme is developed. In particular, an extension of the Zellners prior which allows for a conditional conjugate prior and quantile dependent prior on Bayesian quantile regression is proposed. The prior is generalised in Chapter 3 by introducing a ridge parameter to address important challenges that may arise in some applications, such as multicollinearity and overfitting problems. The proposed prior is also used in Chapter 4 for subset selection of the fixed and random coefficients in a linear mixedeffects QR model. In Chapter 5 we specify normal-exponential prior distributions for the regression coefficients which can provide adaptive shrinkage and represent an alternative model to the Bayesian Lasso quantile regression model. For the second challenge, we assign a quantile dependent prior over model space in Chapter 2. The prior is based on the percentage bend correlation which depends on the quantile level. This prior is novel and is used in Bayesian regression for the first time. For the third challenge of computational efficiency, Gibbs samplers are derived and setup to facilitate the computation of the proposed methods. In addition to the three major aforementioned challenges this thesis also addresses other important issues such as the regularisation in quantile regression and selecting both random and fixed effects in mixed quantile regression models.

No description available.

In the application of cycle-to-cycle control to manufacturing processes, the model of the process reduces to a gain matrix and a pure delay. For a general multiple input – multiple output process, this matrix shows the degree of influence each input has on each output. For a system of high order, determining this gain matrix requires excessive numbers of experiments to be performed, and thus a simplified, but non-ideal form for the gain matrix must be developed. In this paper, the model takes the form of a Gaussian distribution with experimentally determined standard deviation and scaling coefficients. Discrete die sheet metal forming, a multiple input-multiple output process with high dimensionality, is chosen as a test application. Results of the prediction capabilities of the Gaussian model, as well as those of two previously existing models, are presented. It is shown that the Gaussian distribution model does the best job of predicting the output for a given input. The model’s invariance over a set of different formed parts is also presented. However, as shown in the companion paper on cycle-to-cycle control, the errors inherent in this model will cause non-ideal performance of the resulting control system. However, this model appears to be the best form for this problem, given the limit of minimal experimentation. / Singapore-MIT Alliance (SMA)

In a collaboration between Kolmården Zoo and Linköping University, supported by the Norrköping municipality’s fund for research and innovation, mobility measurements have been performed inside the zoo. These measurements have been done by six WiFi sniffers collecting anonymised MAC addresses from the visitors smartphones. The aim of this thesis is to analyse these data to understand visitor flows in the park and other statistics using a model based mobility analysis. The work implies that one can make a rather good prediction of the geographical visitor distribution using this equipment and statistical models. / I ett samarbete mellan Kolmården djurpark och Linköpings universitet, sponsrat av Norrköpingskommuns fond för forskning och utveckling, har rörelsemätningar gjorts inuti parken. Mätningarna har utgjorts av sex WiFi-sniffers som samlar in anonymiserade MAC-adresser från besökares smartphones. Målet med detta arbete är att analysera denna data för att förstå besökarflöden i parken och annan statistik genom att använda en modellbaserad rörelseanalys. Arbetet visar att man med denna utrsutning och statistiska metoder kan skapa en god prediktion av hur den geografiska besökardistributionen ser ut över tid.

Accounts of species’ range shifts in response to climate change, most often as latitudinal shifts towards the poles or upslope shifts to higher elevations, are rapidly accumulating. These range shifts are often attributed to species ‘tracking’ their thermal niches as temperatures in their native ranges increase. Our objective was to estimate the degree to which climate change-driven shifts in water temperature may increase the exposure of West Virginia’s native freshwater fishes to mountaintop removal surface coal mining. Mid-century shifts in habitat suitability for nine non-game West Virginia fishes were projected via Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling, using a combination of physical habitat, historical climate conditions, and future climate data. Modeling projections for a high-emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) predict that habitat suitability will increase in high elevation streams for eight of nine species, with marginal increases in habitat suitability ranging from 46-418%. We conclude that many West Virginia fishes will be at risk of increased exposure to mountaintop removal surface coal mining if climate change continues at a rapid pace.

Southern flounder (Parlichthys lethostigma) is a recreationally and commercially important flatfish species found in the Gulf of Mexico, and recent analyses indicate that the northern Gulf of Mexico population is in decline. For proper management, knowledge of habitats used throughout the juvenile stage is needed. The aim of the current study is to examine habitat use of young-of-year (YOY) southern flounder in the Galveston Bay complex using habitat distribution models and acoustic telemetry. A set of habitat distribution models examined how habitat use changes during the first year of life. In addition, southern flounder were tagged with acoustic telemetry transmitters and monitored with a novel receiver array that allows for measurements of fine-scale movements. These movements were compared to habitat maps to examine habitat selection. Habitat distribution models determined that habitat requirements for southern flounder change with ontogeny and season. Newly settled southern flounder were most influenced by physicochemical parameters and the presence of seagrass beds. YOY southern flounder, however, showed increased occurrence at freshwater inlets during summer and fall months, and occurrence decreased at tidal inlets during the fall. Predictions of habitat suitability across the Galveston Bay complex indicate that the factors influencing occurrence of southern flounder change with season, ontogeny, and availability of suitable habitats. With acoustic telemetry, it was apparent that habitat use by southern flounder was nonrandom and influenced by benthic and other physicochemical conditions. Habitat analyses indicated that southern flounder used sand habitats more frequently than seagrass, oyster reef, or salt marsh habitats. Telemetry results also indicated that depth and water temperature were important determinants of habitat suitability for YOY southern flounder, with individuals preferring deeper and cooler regions of the water column in Christmas Bay. Both model and telemetry analyses indicate that habitat use by YOY southern flounder is dynamic across multiple spatial and temporal scales, with distributions and movements influenced strongly by ontogenetic changes in habitat associations, temporal and spatial variability in physicochemical conditions, and tidal cycles.

This master thesis deals with the potential of GIS to provide a sophisticated model of newt occurence that would allow an evaluation of appropriateness of state driven subsidies granted to build new water tanks. The main purpose was especially to show what parameters that determine presence of newts should be further implemented into the founding documentation of environmental projects aimed to support amphibian populations.

As atividades desenvolvidas pelo ser humano traduzem-se em grandes esforços internos, sobre as mais variadas estruturas corporais. O conhecimento da magnitude destes esforços pode auxiliar profissionais da área da saúde em atividades como prescrição de exercícios, reabilitação e prevenção de lesões. A magnitude dos esforços internos pode ser obtida por meio de um método direto ou indireto. O método direto esbarra em questões éticas e limitações tecnológicas, enquanto que o método analítico indireto por meio do conhecimento de parâmetros biomecânicos externos pode inferir sobre os esforços internos. Assim o objetivo deste estudo foi implementar um Macromodelo biomecânico tridimensional da coluna vertebral (MM3D), para cálculo das forças internas, articular e muscular resultantes, durante diferentes tarefas de levantamento de carga. O MM3D implementado consiste de um modelo de segmentos articulados (MSA-3D) o qual é composto por dezesseis segmentos rígidos conectados associados a um Modelo de distribuição (MDFMA) o qual fornece as forças musculares (FM) e articulares (FA) resultantes em três níveis da coluna vertebral (superior, médio e inferior). No MSA-3D as forças e momentos proximais líquidos são obtidos a partir da resolução das equações de movimento de Newton-Euler por meio da solução inversa. Com base nas forças e momentos proximais líquidos obtidos do MSA-3D o MDFMA baseado em técnicas de otimização e dados da literatura fornece as FM e FA resultantes na coluna vertebral. A tarefa avaliada consistiu do levantamento de um objeto com 20% da massa corporal do indivíduo em três diferentes técnicas de levantamento. Para registro cinemático foram utilizadas cinco câmeras digitais, com freqüência de amostragem de 25 Hz. O registro cinético foi realizado por meio da utilização de uma plataforma de força, a base de strain-gauges. Os resultados do MM3D implementado foram avaliados por meio da estimativa da acurácia da medida tridimensional obtida pela cinemetria, pela comparação dos resultados do MSA-3D com os valores mensurados pela plataforma de força, pela comparação da FRP e MP calculados pela via superior e inferior do MSA-3D nos segmentos da coluna vertebral e literatura. Os resultados obtidos sugerem uma coerência do MM3D com informações de mensurações diretas e estimativas indiretas obtidas da literatura. Assim o MM3D se mostrou capaz de avaliar e comparar as FM e FA nos três segmentos da coluna vertebral durante diferentes tarefas de levantamento. / Activities performed by the human being can be translated in large internal loads in the most varied body structures. Knowledge of these loads' magnitude may help health area professionals in activities such as prescription of exercises, rehabilitation and prevention of injuries. Internal load's magnitude may be obtained through direct or indirect methods. Direct method stumbles in ethical questions and technology limitations, while indirect analytic method through knowledge of external biomechanics parameters may deduce internal loads. Thus the objective of this study was to implement a tridimensional biomechanical macromodel of the spine (MM3D) to calculate internal forces, joint and muscular resultants, during different tasks of weight lifting. The implemented MM3D consists of an articulated segments model (MSA-3D) composed by sixteen rigid segments connected associated to a distribution Model (MDFMA) that provides resultant muscle (FM) and joint (FA) forces in three levels of the spine (superior, medium and inferior). At the MSA-3D liquid forces and proximal moments are obtained from the resolution of Newton-Euler movement equations through inverse solution. Based in the MSA-3D liquid forces and proximal moments obtained, the MDFMA, based in optimization techniques and data from literature, provides spine resultants FM and FA. The evaluated task consisted of lifting an object with 20% of the subjects' body weight using three different lifting techniques. For kinematics records five digital video cameras were used, with sampling frequency of 25 Hz. Kinetic record was performed using a force platform (strain-gauges based). MM3D implemented results were evaluated through accuracy estimation of the tridimensional measures obtained from kinematics, through comparison of the MSA-3D results and values measured by the force platform, through comparison of spine's segments calculated proximal resultant force and proximal moment calculated through upper and lower ways of MSA-3D and literature. Results suggest a coherence of direct measured information of MM3D and indirect estimative obtained from literature. Thus MM3D showed capable of evaluating and comparing FM and FA at the spine's three segments during different lifting tasks.

As atividades desenvolvidas pelo ser humano traduzem-se em grandes esforços internos, sobre as mais variadas estruturas corporais. O conhecimento da magnitude destes esforços pode auxiliar profissionais da área da saúde em atividades como prescrição de exercícios, reabilitação e prevenção de lesões. A magnitude dos esforços internos pode ser obtida por meio de um método direto ou indireto. O método direto esbarra em questões éticas e limitações tecnológicas, enquanto que o método analítico indireto por meio do conhecimento de parâmetros biomecânicos externos pode inferir sobre os esforços internos. Assim o objetivo deste estudo foi implementar um Macromodelo biomecânico tridimensional da coluna vertebral (MM3D), para cálculo das forças internas, articular e muscular resultantes, durante diferentes tarefas de levantamento de carga. O MM3D implementado consiste de um modelo de segmentos articulados (MSA-3D) o qual é composto por dezesseis segmentos rígidos conectados associados a um Modelo de distribuição (MDFMA) o qual fornece as forças musculares (FM) e articulares (FA) resultantes em três níveis da coluna vertebral (superior, médio e inferior). No MSA-3D as forças e momentos proximais líquidos são obtidos a partir da resolução das equações de movimento de Newton-Euler por meio da solução inversa. Com base nas forças e momentos proximais líquidos obtidos do MSA-3D o MDFMA baseado em técnicas de otimização e dados da literatura fornece as FM e FA resultantes na coluna vertebral. A tarefa avaliada consistiu do levantamento de um objeto com 20% da massa corporal do indivíduo em três diferentes técnicas de levantamento. Para registro cinemático foram utilizadas cinco câmeras digitais, com freqüência de amostragem de 25 Hz. O registro cinético foi realizado por meio da utilização de uma plataforma de força, a base de strain-gauges. Os resultados do MM3D implementado foram avaliados por meio da estimativa da acurácia da medida tridimensional obtida pela cinemetria, pela comparação dos resultados do MSA-3D com os valores mensurados pela plataforma de força, pela comparação da FRP e MP calculados pela via superior e inferior do MSA-3D nos segmentos da coluna vertebral e literatura. Os resultados obtidos sugerem uma coerência do MM3D com informações de mensurações diretas e estimativas indiretas obtidas da literatura. Assim o MM3D se mostrou capaz de avaliar e comparar as FM e FA nos três segmentos da coluna vertebral durante diferentes tarefas de levantamento. / Activities performed by the human being can be translated in large internal loads in the most varied body structures. Knowledge of these loads' magnitude may help health area professionals in activities such as prescription of exercises, rehabilitation and prevention of injuries. Internal load's magnitude may be obtained through direct or indirect methods. Direct method stumbles in ethical questions and technology limitations, while indirect analytic method through knowledge of external biomechanics parameters may deduce internal loads. Thus the objective of this study was to implement a tridimensional biomechanical macromodel of the spine (MM3D) to calculate internal forces, joint and muscular resultants, during different tasks of weight lifting. The implemented MM3D consists of an articulated segments model (MSA-3D) composed by sixteen rigid segments connected associated to a distribution Model (MDFMA) that provides resultant muscle (FM) and joint (FA) forces in three levels of the spine (superior, medium and inferior). At the MSA-3D liquid forces and proximal moments are obtained from the resolution of Newton-Euler movement equations through inverse solution. Based in the MSA-3D liquid forces and proximal moments obtained, the MDFMA, based in optimization techniques and data from literature, provides spine resultants FM and FA. The evaluated task consisted of lifting an object with 20% of the subjects' body weight using three different lifting techniques. For kinematics records five digital video cameras were used, with sampling frequency of 25 Hz. Kinetic record was performed using a force platform (strain-gauges based). MM3D implemented results were evaluated through accuracy estimation of the tridimensional measures obtained from kinematics, through comparison of the MSA-3D results and values measured by the force platform, through comparison of spine's segments calculated proximal resultant force and proximal moment calculated through upper and lower ways of MSA-3D and literature. Results suggest a coherence of direct measured information of MM3D and indirect estimative obtained from literature. Thus MM3D showed capable of evaluating and comparing FM and FA at the spine's three segments during different lifting tasks.