Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T12:05:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_FINALJoao_Nabout.pdf: 1455749 bytes, checksum: 9b7b11f9fe664d7c2e865eff445ff3d0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-11-17 / Macroecology of the genus Uca (Crustacea, Decapoda): Patterns of diversity, distribution and responses to global change. The genus Uca, composed by 97 species, has a worldwide distribution on coastal marine regions, mainly in tropical environments. Many researches have used the genus Uca as a model of study, although the actual scientific knowledge about this group is dispersed. Moreover, few studies have investigated its global and evolutive patterns. In this sense, considering that the genus Uca has no taxonomic problems (there is a consensus about its distribution and species identification), presents wide geographical distribution and has phylogenetic topologies, this group can be used as an excellent model to test macroecological and evolutionary hypotheses, and to discuss the effects of climate change on coastal organisms. The aim of this study was to detect trends and biases in scientific literature about the genus Uca, as well as to assess macroecological patterns (at a global scale) and to evaluate the influence of climate change on the geographical range size and species richness. Moreover, we associated the information generated to improve conservation strategies for species of the genus Uca. Considering our goals, we generated four papers in this thesis. Among the most prominent results, we observed that, the number of papers about the genus Uca indexed in Thomson ISI database, did not increase between 1991 and 2007, which may indicate the lack of interest of the scientific community on this taxonomic group. Moreover, the majority of the scientific production about the genus Uca came from institutions in the USA. The studies about the genus Uca were mainly characterized as population papers (which analyzes population attributes such as density, distribution and ecological interactions). The results of species accumulation curve demonstrated that the total number of Uca species currently know (97 described species) is substantially lower than the number predicted by the asymptote of the Gompertz model (134 species predicted), suggesting that new species need to be described. However, a new species of Uca is not described since 1987. Models were generated to explain the date of species description based on the body size, geographical range size, human influence and the type of habitat of each species. These models were selected using the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The best model among the candidate ones (explaining 37% of the total variance) was composed by variables representing the geographical range size of species, their body size and the human influence on them. In other words, large-bodied species and those widely distributed, mainly in regions with elevated human influence, were described earlier. In another paper of this thesis, we evaluated the levels of phylogenetic heritability of species of the genus Uca on their geographical range size, shape and position. If a strong phylogenetic signal of geographic range sizes exists between close related species, we can predict the unknown geographic range of species through the known geographic range of its relatives, which is useful for conservation purposes. However, the absence of phylogenetic signal was evidenced for this trait. On the other hand, there was a strong phylogenetic pattern considering the position of the range (mainly along longitudinal axis), probably due to mechanisms of vicariant allopatric speciation and to the geographical structure of the cladogenesis of the group. In the last paper, the impact of global changes on geographic range size of genus Uca were modeled, producing a comprehension about a poleward shift and elaborating maps of species richness based in two scenarios of global change. The models generated presented good performance, and predictions are that the species will probably have reduced the geographical range size and some species will be extinct (considering two scenarios until 2050), mainly in the tropical regions. Moreover, the range of species with midpoints in both hemispheres changed towards to poles in the future scenarios of climatic changes. Finally, the results of this set of papers highlighted the urgency of detailed studies for some species of Uca, and in some coastal marine regions (e.g. Indo-West Pacific) to evaluate the actual status of the distribution of species of the genus Uca and the real species richness of this genus. This is essential to generate local strategies aiming to minimize impacts of global change on coastal organism / O gênero Uca é composto atualmente por 97 espécies, distribuídas mundialmente, ocupando ambientes costeiros marinhos, principalmente da região tropical. Diversos campos de pesquisa têm desenvolvidos trabalhos usando o gênero Uca como modelo, entretanto, atualmente o conhecimento científico sobre esse grupo apresenta-se disperso, além disso, estudos sobre padrões globais e evolutivos ainda são incipientes. Dessa forma, considerando que o gênero Uca é taxonomicamente resolvidos (i.e., consenso na distribuição e identificação das espécies), apresenta ampla distribuição geográfica e existem topologias filogenéticas, estes tornam-se excelentes modelos para testar hipóteses macroecólogicas, evolutivas e discutir efeitos de mudanças climáticas sobre organismos costeiros. O objetivo geral desse trabalho foi avaliar tendências e detectar vieses da literatura científica global de caranguejos do gênero Uca, bem como investigar padrões macroecológicos em escala global e a influência das mudanças climáticas na distribuição geográfica e riqueza de espécies desse grupo de caranguejo, além disso, associar as informações geradas para avançar em estratégias de conservação para essas espécies. Dessa forma, considerando o objetivo geral desse trabalho, foram gerados quatro artigos apresentados nessa tese. Dentre os resultados mais importantes, observamos que o número de artigos sobre Uca indexados na base Thomson ISI não aumentou ao longo dos anos (1991 até 2007), o que pode indicar que não houve aumento de interesse da comunidade científica com esse grupo de organismo, além disso, a maior parte da produção científica sobre Uca foi desenvolvidas por instituições dos Estados Unidos. Os estudos sobre Uca foram principalmente caracterizados como artigos de cunho populacional (i.e. analisaram atributos como densidade, distribuição e interações ecológicas). Apesar de um longo tempo não serem descritas novas espécies de Uca (última espécie foi descrita em 1987), os resultados da curva de acumulação de espécies demonstraram que o número total de espécies de Uca atualmente descrito é menor do que o número de espécies predito pela assíntota do modelo de Gompertz (preditos 134 espécies), sugerindo que existem novas espécies de Uca para serem descritas. Além disso, foram gerados modelos para explicar a data de descrição de espécies, baseado no tamanho da carapaça, tamanho da área de distribuição geográfica, influência humana nos locais de ocorrência das espécies e o tipo de habitat da espécie. Esses modelos foram confrontados e selecionados de acordo com o Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC). O melhor modelo foi composto pelo tamanho da distribuição geográfica, tamanho do corpo e influência humana, explicando 37% da variação total dos dados, dessa forma, as espécies descritas primeiramente apresentaram maior tamanho corpóreo, maiores áreas de distribuição geográfica e ocorrem em regiões de elevada influência humana. Em outro artigo desenvolvido nessa tese, foi avaliado os níveis de herdabilidade filogenética do tamanho, forma e posição da distribuição geográfica de espécies de Uca. A existência do sinal filogenético para o tamanho da distribuição geográfica pode auxiliar em estratégias para conservação, pois é possível prever o tamanho da distribuição geográfica de uma espécie caso se conheça o tamanho da distribuição de uma espécie filogeneticamente próxima. Entretanto, para as espécies de Uca, foi observado ausência de sinal filogenético para esse caráter. Somente a posição da distribuição geográfica (ao longo do eixo longitudinal) apresentou um forte padrão filogenético, possivelmente devido ao processo de especiação alopátrica vicariante e a estrutura geográfica dos clados. Para o último artigo, foram modelados os impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a distribuição geográfica das espécies de Uca, gerando uma compreensão do deslocamento das espécies em direção aos pólos e ainda produzindo um mapa de riqueza de espécies com base em cenário otimistas e pessimistas de mudanças climáticas globais. Os modelos gerados apresentaram bom desempenho, e grande parte das espécies de Uca apresentarão diminuição da distribuição geográfica acarretando perda de espécies (para cenários projetados para 2050), principalmente nas regiões tropicais, ainda assim, as espécies com pontos médios de ocorrência em ambos os hemisfério, tenderão a direcionar-se para os pólos nos cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas. Por fim, os resultados desse conjunto de artigos evidenciam a urgência de estudos ambientais para diversas espécies de Uca e de regiões costeiras (e.g. Indo-Oeste Pacífico) a fim de gerar um painel atualizado da distribuição e riqueza de espécies de Uca, que permitirão gerar estratégias locais para minimizar impactos das mudanças climáticas

Les modèles de distribution d’espèces ont été identifiées comme pertinents pour cartographier et caractériser la qualitéd’habitat des moustiques vecteurs du paludisme, Anopheles, afin de participer à l’estimation du risque de transmission decette maladie et à la définition de stratégies de lutte anti-vectorielle ciblées. La transmission du paludisme dépend de laprésence et de la distribution des vecteurs, qui dépendent elles-mêmes des conditions environnementales définissant laqualité des habitats écologiques des Anopheles. Cependant, dans certaines régions, les données de captures d’Anophelessont rares, et rend difficile la cartographie de leurs habitats. De plus, le recueil de ces données est très souvent soumis à desbiais d’échantillonnage.Cette thèse fournit une solution à la cartographie des vecteurs du paludisme, en considérant deux aspects très peu étudiésdans la modélisation : le faible nombre de sites de présence disponibles et l’existence d’un biais d’échantillonnage. Uneméthode originale de correction de l’effet du biais d’échantillonnage est proposée puis appliquée à des données de présencedu principal vecteur du paludisme en Guyane, Anopheles darlingi. Un modèle de distribution d’An. darlingi a ensuite étéconstruit, permettant d’obtenir une carte de qualité d’habitat en cohérence avec la connaissance des entomologistes etfournissant des performances de prédiction élevées. La méthode de correction proposée a ensuite été comparée auxméthodes existantes dans un contexte applicatif caractérisé par la rareté des données d’occurrence de l’espèce et laprésence d’un biais d’échantillonnage. Les résultats montrent que la méthode développée est adaptée aux cas où le nombrede sites de présence est faible. Cette thèse contribue, d’une part, à combler les lacunes théoriques et d’applicabilité desméthodes actuelles visant à corriger l’effet des biais d’échantillonnage et, d’autre part, à compléter la connaissance sur ladistribution spatiale et la bioécologie du principal vecteur du paludisme en Guyane française. / Species distribution models are identified as relevant to map and characterize the habitat quality of Anopheles genusmosquitoes, transmitting malaria, and thus to both participate in the estimation of the transmission risk of this disease and inthe definition of targeted vector control actions. The malaria transmission depends on the presence and distribution of thevectors, which are themselves dependent on the environmental conditions that define the quality of the ecological habitats of the Anopheles. However, in some areas, Anopheles collection data remain scarce, making it difficult to model these habitats. In addition, the collection of these data is very often subjected to significant sampling biases, due, in particular, to unequal accessibility to the entire study area. This thesis provides a solution to the mapping of malaria vectors, considering two very few studied aspects in modeling: the low number of available presence sites and the existence of a sampling bias. An original method for correcting the effect of the sampling bias is proposed and then applied to presence data of Anopheles darlingi species - the main vector of malaria in South America - in French Guiana. Then, a distribution model of An. darlingi was built to obtain a map of habitat quality consistent with entomologists’ knowledge and providing high prediction performances. The proposed correction method was then compared to existing methods in an application context characterized by the scarcity of the species occurence data and the presence of a sampling bias. The results show that the developed method is adapted to cases where the number of sites of presence is low. This thesis contributes, on the one hand, to fill theoretical and applicability lacuna of current methods intended to correct the effect of the sampling bias and, on the other hand, to supplement the knowledge on both the spatial distribution and the bio-ecology of the main malaria vector in French Guiana.

Les causes évolutives de certaines formes de vie en groupe sont bien identifiées mais pas celles des agrégations de diapause des arthropodes (rassemblements monospécifiques d'adultes dans des sites à localisation constante). Dans cette thèse, j'ai testé si, selon l'hypothèse du lek caché, les arthropodes se rassemblent pour trouver leurs partenaires sexuels chez la coccinelle Hippodamia undecimnotata. J'ai montré que les coccinelles se rassemblent dans des endroits avec un repère proéminent et où le risque de pesticides est faible, puis que les conditions abiotiques dans les sites sont défavorables à la survie des coccinelles. Ensuite, j'ai mis en évidence l'occurrence de nombreux accouplements dans les sites d'agrégation. Enfin, j'ai montré que ces accouplements sont peu coûteux en énergie pour les femelles, qui conservent de l'énergie pour les comportements post-agrégation. Cette thèse atteste que les agrégations de diapause font partie du système de reproduction des arthropodes. / The evolutionary significance of some kinds of group living are well-known, some others such as the diapause aggregations remain poorly known although widespread. In this thesis, I tested if the arthropods form diapause aggregations to find their mates according to the hidden lek hypothesis with the ladybird Hippodamia undecimnotata. By using a Species Distribution Model, I showed that ladybirds aggregate in places with a prominent object and where the risk of being sprayed by pesticides is low. Then, I highlighted that abiotic conditions are unfavourable to ladybirds' survival. In a third part, I found that mating is widespread activity in the aggregation sites. Finally, I showed that energetic costs linked to mating are low, and thus allow the ladybirds to disperse and display post aggregations behaviour. This thesis shows that the diapause aggregations are part of the mating system of the arthropods and that sexual selection can be a driver of the evolution of diapause aggregations.

Understanding species-habitat relationships for endangered species is critical for their conservation. However, many studies have limited value for conservation because they fail to account for habitat associations at multiple spatial scales, anthropogenic variables, and imperfect detection. We addressed these three limitations by developing models for an endangered wetland bird, Yuma Ridgway's rail (Rallus obsoletus yumanensis), that examined how the spatial scale of environmental variables, inclusion of anthropogenic disturbance variables, and accounting for imperfect detection in validation data influenced model performance. These models identified associations between environmental variables and occupancy. We used bird survey and spatial environmental data at 2473 locations throughout the species' U.S. range to create and validate occupancy models and produce predictive maps of occupancy. We compared habitat-based models at three spatial scales (100, 224, and 500 m radii buffers) with and without anthropogenic disturbance variables using validation data adjusted for imperfect detection and an unadjusted validation dataset that ignored imperfect detection. The inclusion of anthropogenic disturbance variables improved the performance of habitat models at all three spatial scales, and the 224-m-scale model performed best. All models exhibited greater predictive ability when imperfect detection was incorporated into validation data. Yuma Ridgway's rail occupancy was negatively associated with ephemeral and slow-moving riverine features and high-intensity anthropogenic development, and positively associated with emergent vegetation, agriculture, and low-intensity development. Our modeling approach accounts for common limitations in modeling species-habitat relationships and creating predictive maps of occupancy probability and, therefore, provides a useful framework for other species.

Orientador: Luís Felipe de Toledo Ramos Pereira / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Biologia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T11:16:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Oliveira_IgorSoaresde_D.pdf: 4104401 bytes, checksum: 76046f01be0657270cbc44223cd762b9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: As mudanças climáticas possuem potencial para alterar o funcionamento dos ecossistemas através da extinção de espécies e das conexões entre a biota e o ambiente, alterando os padrões aos quais estamos acostumados e exigindo adaptação. As alterações climáticas terão como uma de suas consequências a elevação oceânica, que pode redesenhar as costas de todos os continentes terrestres e afetar a biota associada. Nesse contexto, sobressaem-se os anfíbios como um grupo sensível que sofre diversas pressões e apresenta declínios populacionais, se destacando como vertebrados mais ameaçados da atualidade, com diversas espécies pouco conhecidas. Sendo assim, nesse trabalho analisamos múltiplos efeitos que dificultam a conservação dos anfíbios. Avaliamos os potenciais efeitos das mudanças climáticas e da elevação oceânica sobre os anfíbios com distribuição costeira. Também desenvolvemos um índice para classificar espécies com dados insuficientes com a finalidade de oferecer uma alternativa para a busca de informações para esses taxa e mudar sua classificação atual. Por fim, analisamos a disponibilidade histórica de clima adequado para uma linhagem endêmica do fungo quitrídio em busca de padrões que pudessem explicar sua distribuição e raridade atuais. Utilizamos ferramentas como modelos de distribuição de espécies e sistema de informação geográfica em busca de respostas às nossas questões. Nossos resultados corroboram as mudanças climáticas como um fenômeno com potencial devastador e alertam para potenciais perigos da elevação oceânica. Além disso, nosso índice para espécies deficientes em dados pode auxiliar a direcionar esforços em busca de novas informações. Por fim, nossas análises com relação ao fungo quitrídio corroboram a hipótese de endemismo para a linhagem Bd-Brazil e também evidenciam hábitat adequado passado para o Bd-GPL. Além disso, verificamos baixa sobreposição de nicho climático entre essas duas linhagens, indicando possibilidade de competição. Assim, esperamos que nossos resultados tenham contribuído para o conhecimento de múltiplas ameaças à conservação dos anfíbios e sirvam para direcionar futuros estudos / Abstract: Climate change has the potential to change ecosystem functioning through species extinction and disrupting connection between biota and environment, thus changing natural patterns and requiring adaptation. One certain consequence of climate change is the sea level rise, which is expected to redraw coastal shorelines worldwide and broadly affect coastal-associated biota. In this context, amphibians represent a sensitive group under several current pressures, exhibiting population decline, highlighted as the most current threaten vertebrates on Earth, and also, with several "data deficient" species. Thus, herein we analyzed multiple effects that hamper amphibian conservation. We evaluated potential climate change effects and sea level rise on amphibians with coastal distribution. Also, we developed an index to classify data deficient species in order to offer an alternative further research of such species to gather sufficient information to change their current status. Finally, we analyzed historical availability of suitable habitat for and endemic lineage of the chytrid fungus searching for patterns that explain its current distribution and rarity. We used tools as species distribution models and geographic information system to answer our questions. Our results corroborate climate change as a potentially devastating phenomena and we stress potential threatens derived from sea level rise. Moreover, the index we developed for data deficient species seems to work properly and may drive further effort in searching for further information for those species. Finally, our analyzes related to the chytrid fungus supported the hypothesis of endemism of Bd-Brazil, and also showed past environmental suitability for Bd-GPL. In addition, we verified low environmental niche overlap these two lineages, indicating possibility of competition. Thus, we expect our results may improve current knowledge about multiple threats to amphibian conservation, as well as, they may be used to guide further research / Doutorado / Ecologia / Doutor em Ecologia

On the territory of the Czech Switzerland National Park took place during the Holocene significant changes in vegetation cover to the form is most enrolled medium Holocene climatic optimum when broadleaf deciduous forests expanded into Central Europe. These transformations are caused by climatic changes. However, it started the process of soil acidification to this day that caused the other variations of the vegetation composition, even the extinction a variety of species especially in sandstone areas. In addition, in the last few centuries the human impact is graduating, which more or less of the original forests changes due to agricultural and economic reasons to breed-specific and the same-aged plantations which supports the already declining species diversity and relative abundance of the undergrowth species. This work focuses on a single species, evergreen undergrowth shrub Ledum palustre which is characterized by strong demands on its habitat and indicates the specific habitat type. It grows on the upper north-facing edges of rocks with plenty of light and humidity. At these locations stores organic material thanks the favourable hydrology. This makes possible to study the use of pollen and macroremains the paleoecology of the species. On the basis of recent occurrences and the relationships...

No description available.

The increase in truck traffic on highways has brought many problems and challenges to transportation planning and traffic operation, including traffic congestion, transportation system deficiency (insufficient truck parking, etc.), safety, infrastructure deterioration, environmental impacts (air quality and noise), economic development, and so forth. Along with the increase in truck traffic, the need for developing a statewide truck freight demand model has grown so that a state can estimate truck traffic at any point on its highways. The most significant hurdle to including freight transportation in the transportation modeling process is that most of the demand forecasting methodologies currently available were developed for passenger trips, not freight trips. This type of modeling methodology usually makes an assumption that freight trips follow the same behavioral mechanism as passenger trips. In order to overcome the weakness of using a typical four-step demand forecasting modeling process, the concept of commodity flow models (CFMs) can be used to develop a truck freight flow model. It is widely accepted that focusing on the freights enables CFMs to capture more accurately the fundamental economic mechanisms that drive freight movements. The type of commodity being carried is one of the most important characteristics of truck movements, and it is sometimes a challenge to obtain such information from the carriers. Thus, lately, the integration of the freight flow modeling and land use modeling has emerged as an alternate tool to estimate freight movements than the previously developed models. In this study, county-level multiple regression models relating land use to commodity flow were developed using a geographical information system and statistics. Then, a statistical/mathematical statewide commodity flow distribution model was developed by using a physical friction factor (physical distance), a statistical friction factor (Euclidean distance), and economic factors (differences of population and difference of employment among the counties). The commodity flow distributed among truck traffic analysis zones (TTAZs) by the statewide commodity flow distribution model were converted to truck trips and the resulting truck trips were assigned to Utah's truck routes using the all-or-nothing assignment procedure of TransCAD and a genetic algorithm. Truck freight data from the US Census Bureau's Commodity Flow Surveys, which have become available to the public for free via the Internet, enabled the development of a commodity flow based statewide truck freight demand model. It was found that the integration of the freight flow and land use data could be a practical method for modeling tuck traffic demand on state-wide truck routes although the current level of data availability on commodity flow and land use data still constrains the full capability of this type of modeling.

No description available.

<p>Recently, the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM-Poisson) cure rate model has been proposed which includes as special cases some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm can be efficiently used for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters based on right censored data.</p> <p>By assuming the lifetime distribution to be exponential, lognormal, Weibull, and gamma, the necessary steps of the EM algorithm are developed for the COM-Poisson cure rate model and some of its special cases. The inferential method is examined by means of an extensive simulation study. Model discrimination within the COM-Poisson family is carried out by likelihood ratio test as well as by information-based criteria. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated with a cutaneous melanoma data on cancer recurrence. As the lifetime distributions considered are not nested, it is not possible to carry out a formal statistical test to determine which among these provides an adequate fit to the data. For this reason, the wider class of generalized gamma distributions is considered which contains all of the above mentioned lifetime distributions as special cases. The steps of the EM algorithm are then developed for this general class of distributions and a simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the generalized gamma family is carried out by likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria. Finally, for the considered cutaneous melanoma data, the two-way flexibility of the COM-Poisson family and the generalized gamma family is utilized to carry out a two-way model discrimination to select a parsimonious competing cause distribution along with a suitable choice of a lifetime distribution that provides the best fit to the data.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)