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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

A Plethodontid Perspective: Responding to Disturbance — From Hourly Weather to Historical Settlement and Modern Fire

Wilk, Andrew John 10 November 2022 (has links)
No description available.
32

Evaluation of groundwater flow and contaminant transport at the Wells G&H Superfund Site, Woburn, Massachusetts, from 1960 to 1986 and estimation of TCE and PCE concentrations delivered to Woburn residences

Metheny, Maura A. 20 July 2004 (has links)
No description available.
33

Dengue and Climate Change: Assessing Potential Future Areas of Concern for Transmission in the United States

Beer, Matthew 01 August 2024 (has links) (PDF)
Background: Global climate change severely impacts human life, particularly health, as rising temperatures and extreme weather affect physical and mental well-being. Climate change can also alter the risk factors and epidemiology of infectious diseases, notably vector-borne diseases (VBDs), including those transmitted by mosquitoes. The Aedes mosquito, responsible for dengue, poses a significant threat due to its prevalence vector. Dengue prevention lacks effective methods beyond vector control, and the current vaccine has limitations, emphasizing the need for intensified research and prevention strategies to mitigate the expanding dengue burden worldwide. The goal of these studies was to establish a novel risk index as a baseline for improving prevention efforts for Dengue in the US. Methods: An initial scoping review was conducted, looking at the state of literature surrounding risk factors associated with dengue transmission in the Americas and globally. Species distribution models (SDMs) were then constructed using Ae. aegypti occurrence data, and both current and projected climate data, to show the predicted current habitat suitability in North America and the potential projected changes in habitat suitability in 2070 and 2100 under differing climate change conditions. The results of the scoping review and SDMs, as well as the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index, were used to develop a novel risk index for identifying areas of potential dengue transmission in the Continental United States. Utilizing the results of the Dengue Enhanced Risk Priority Index (DERPI) and the National Park Service’s Planning for a Changing Climate guidebook, an Impact Scenario Plan (ISP) was developed for a select area of the US with the highest potential risk of dengue transmission. Results and Implications: The SDMs show large-scale changes in suitable habitat for Ae. aegypti within North America, with the majority of Mexico, Texas, Florida, and Southern California having increased areas of suitable habitat under both climate change models. The DERPI found that large areas of the southern US were suitable for both vector habitat and viral transmission, putting these regions potentially at risk for dengue transmission. The findings of these studies show the need to begin developing dengue prevention and vector control strategies in the southern US.
34

Numerical Modelling and Statistical Analysis of Ocean Wave Energy Converters and Wave Climates

Li, Wei January 2016 (has links)
Ocean wave energy is considered to be one of the important potential renewable energy resources for sustainable development. Various wave energy converter technologies have been proposed to harvest the energy from ocean waves. This thesis is based on the linear generator wave energy converter developed at Uppsala University. The research in this thesis focuses on the foundation optimization and the power absorption optimization of the wave energy converters and on the wave climate modelling at the Lysekil wave converter test site. The foundation optimization study of the gravity-based foundation of the linear wave energy converter is based on statistical analysis of wave climate data measured at the Lysekil test site. The 25 years return extreme significant wave height and its associated mean zero-crossing period are chosen as the maximum wave for the maximum heave and surge forces evaluation. The power absorption optimization study on the linear generator wave energy converter is based on the wave climate at the Lysekil test site. A frequency-domain simplified numerical model is used with the power take-off damping coefficient chosen as the control parameter for optimizing the power absorption. The results show a large improvement with an optimized power take-off damping coefficient adjusted to the characteristics of the wave climate at the test site. The wave climate modelling studies are based on the wave climate data measured at the Lysekil test site. A new mixed distribution method is proposed for modelling the significant wave height. This method gives impressive goodness of fit with the measured wave data. A copula method is applied to the bivariate joint distribution of the significant wave height and the wave period. The results show an excellent goodness of fit for the Gumbel model. The general applicability of the proposed mixed-distribution method and the copula method are illustrated with wave climate data from four other sites. The results confirm the good performance of the mixed-distribution and the Gumbel copula model for the modelling of significant wave height and bivariate wave climate.
35

Novel Pharmacometric Methods for Informed Tuberculosis Drug Development

Clewe, Oskar January 2016 (has links)
With approximately nine million new cases and the attributable cause of death of an estimated two millions people every year there is an urgent need for new and effective drugs and treatment regimens targeting tuberculosis. The tuberculosis drug development pathway is however not ideal, containing non-predictive model systems and unanswered questions that may increase the risk of failure during late-phase drug development. The aim of this thesis was hence to develop pharmacometric tools in order to optimize the development of new anti-tuberculosis drugs and treatment regimens. The General Pulmonary Distribution model was developed allowing for prediction of both rate and extent of distribution from plasma to pulmonary tissue. A distribution characterization that is of high importance as most current used anti-tuberculosis drugs were introduced into clinical use without considering the pharmacokinetic properties influencing drug distribution to the site of action. The developed optimized bronchoalveolar lavage sampling design provides a simplistic but informative approach to gathering of the data needed to allow for a model based characterization of both rate and extent of pulmonary distribution using as little as one sample per subject. The developed Multistate Tuberculosis Pharmacometric model provides predictions over time for a fast-, slow- and non-multiplying bacterial state with and without drug effect. The Multistate Tuberculosis Pharmacometric model was further used to quantify the in vitro growth of different strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the exposure-response relationships of three first line anti-tuberculosis drugs. The General Pharmacodynamic Interaction model was successfully used to characterize the pharmacodynamic interactions of three first line anti-tuberculosis drugs, showing the possibility of distinguishing drug A’s interaction with drug B from drug B’s interaction with drug A. The successful separation of all three drugs effect on each other is a necessity for future work focusing on optimizing the selection of anti-tuberculosis combination regimens. With a focus on pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, the work included in this thesis provides multiple new methods and approaches that individually, but maybe more important the combination of, has the potential to inform development of new but also to provide additional information of the existing anti-tuberculosis drugs and drug regimen.
36

Impacts du changement global sur les assemblages d’espèces exploitées sud méditerranéens, application au golfe de Gabès (Tunisie) : de la modélisation des niches aux conséquences trophiques / Towards a better understanding of the ecosystem impacts of global change on southern Mediterranean exploited species assemblages, application to the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia) : from species distribution models to trophic consequences

Hattab, Tarek 22 April 2014 (has links)
La mer Méditerranée est un hotspot de biodiversité sous diverses influences où plusieurs perturbations agissent en synergie: réchauffement climatique, perte d'habitats et surpêche menacent la biodiversité marine et perturbent les équilibres écosystémiques. Afin d'assurer une gestion durable des écosystèmes marins côtiers, conformément aux prérogatives de l'Approche Ecosystémique des Pêches, il est nécessaire d'étudier les conséquences de ces perturbations sur les populations exploitées. Or, malgré la multiplicité des études relatives au changement global en Méditerranée, les conséquences écosystémiques de ces changements demeurent mal connues. Dans cette thèse, le Golfe de Gabès a été choisi comme modèle d'étude en raison des nombreuses perturbations qui y sont rencontrées et qui en font l'archétype de tendances plus généralisées en Mer Méditerranée. Cette thèse se propose d'abord de replacer l'écosystème du Golfe de Gabès dans son contexte biogéographique à travers l'étude de la phylobiogéographie des assemblages des poissons côtiers méditerranéens et la modélisation de la structure et du fonctionnement de l'écosystème du Golfe de Gabès. Par la suite, nous proposons de modéliser, en utilisant des modèles de niches écologiques, les modifications potentielles futures des assemblages biogéographiques d'espèces exploitées soumises aux changements climatiques et à la perte d'habitat, ainsi que les conséquences trophiques de ces modifications. En prenant en compte la taxonomie et l'histoire évolutive des espèces, nous avons mis en évidence le niveau de séparation entre les assemblages méditerranéens en proposant une nouvelle délimitation biogéographique du plateau continental. Par ailleurs, l'exploration des dissimilarités phylogénétiques à l'échelle des côtes tunisiennes a mis en évidence quatre zones biogéographiques majeures présentant une faible congruence avec le zonage adopté pour la gestion de la pêche en Tunisie. Les projections des futures aires de répartition des 60 principales espèces exploitées du Golfe de Gabès, grâce à l'implémentation du modèle climatique NEMOMED8, révèlent que pour la fin du siècle, 34 espèces pourraient contracter leurs aires de répartition parmi lesquelles 12 espèces pourraient s'éteindre à l'échelle du Golfe. Par ailleurs, en combinant des scénarios de régression d'herbier et de changement climatique, les projections montrent que les magnitudes des modifications d'aires de répartition induites par le changement climatique sont plus larges que celles résultant de la perte d'habitat. La mise en place d'un modèle trophique Ecopath nous a permis de décrire la structure et le fonctionnement de l'écosystème du Golfe de Gabès et de le comparer avec d'autres écosystèmes méditerranéens exploités. Ce modèle a intégré un large éventail d'espèces depuis le phytoplancton jusqu'aux top-prédateurs ainsi que les principales activités de pêche opérant dans la zone. Les résultats du modèle mettent en évidence que le chalutage benthique est l'activité ayant les conséquences écosystémiques les plus étendues avec un fort impact sur certaines espèces démersales exploitées. Enfin, pour étudier les conséquences trophiques des modifications des distributions spatiales des espèces exploitées, nous avons reconstruit les réseaux trophiques au sein des assemblages d'espèces en nous fondant sur la relation positive liant la taille du prédateur à celle de sa proie. Nous avons ainsi pu prédire les réseaux trophiques actuels et projeter les modifications potentielles de leurs structures. Nous avons constaté qu'une grande partie du Golfe pourrait connaître une augmentation de la connectance et un allongement des voies trophiques moyennes qui s'accompagnent d'une diminution du nombre de proies par prédateur et du nombre de prédateurs par proie. Cette thèse est une ouverture vers la compréhension du rôle de la biodiversité dans le maintien du fonctionnement des écosystèmes. / The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hot spot highly affected by several sources of disturbances interacting synergistically: global warming, habitat loss and overfishing threaten marine biodiversity and disrupt the ecosystem balance. To ensure a sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems according to the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries, it is necessary to study the ecosystem responses to these disturbances. However, despite the variety of global change studies in Mediterranean areas, ecosystems responses to these changes remain poorly understood and particularly at the southern part of the Mediterranean Sea. In this PhD thesis, the Gulf of Gabes was chosen as study area since it is one of the most affected regions by global change which makes it a mesocosm model of more regional patterns that occur in the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, as a first step, we replaced the Gulf of Gabes in its biogeographic and ecosystem regional context. This was achievied through a phylogenetic-based delineation of biogeographical species pools of coastal Mediterranean fishes and using an ecosystem model to describe its structure and functioning in comparison with other Mediterranean ecosystem model properties. We therefore projected potential future geographic ranges and assemblages composition of biogeographical exploited species pool according to global warming and habitat loss scenarios. Then we assessed their effects on food web structure. Taking into account the taxonomy and inter-species evolutionary relationships, we generate a new bioregionalisation of the continental shelf based on the turnover of lineages. Our results showed that climate is the major driver of species distribution and assemblage's composition. In addition, the exploration of phylogenetic dissimilarity across the Tunisian coast highlighted four major biogeographic areas showing a low spatial congruence with zoning used for fisheries management in Tunisia.Projected range shifts of the 60 main exploited species of the Gulf of Gabes through the implementation of a new climate model (NEMOMED8) revealed that, by the end of the century, 34 species could contract their ranges including 12 species that could become locally extinct across the Gulf of Gabes. Furthermore, by combining Posidonia meadows loss scenarios and climate change projections, our results showed that the magnitudes of the changes range induced by climate change are larger than those resulting from the loss of habitat.The Ecopath mass-balance model allowed us to describe the structure and functioning of the ecosystem of the Gulf of Gabes in comparison with other Mediterranean ecosystems. These models encompass the entire trophic spectrum from phytoplankton to higher trophic levels as well as the main fishing activities in the area. The model results showed that, among the fishing activities studied, bottom trawling was identified as the activity having the widest-ranging impacts across the different functional groups and the largest impacts on some commercially-targeted demersal fish species. Finally, to study the effects of species range shift on food web structure, we used a new methodology to infer trophic interactions between species. Based on the robust relationship between the size of prey and predators, we predicted the current food webs and project potential changes in their structures. We found that a significant portion of the Gulf of Gabes would face an increase of connectance and an extension of trophic pathways in parallel with a decrease in the number of prey per predator and the number of predators per prey. This PhD thesis paves the way towards the understanding of the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystem functioning.
37

Application du Modèle à Distribution de Points au corps humain pour la ré-identification de personnes / Alignment of a Point Distribution Model onto the human body for person re-identification

Huynh, Olivier 31 May 2016 (has links)
L'essor des systèmes mobiles pose de nouvelles problématiques dans le domaine de vision par ordinateur. Les techniques de ré-identification s'appuyant sur un réseau de caméras fixes doivent être repensées afin de s'adapter à un décor changeant. Pour répondre à ces besoins, cette thèse explore, dans le cadre du corps humain, l'utilisation d'un modèle structurel habituellement employé pour de la reconnaissance faciale. Il s'agit de l'alignement d'un modèle à distribution de points (Point Distribution Model ou PDM). L'objectif de ce pré-traitement avant la ré-identification est triple, segmenter la personne du décor, améliorer la robustesse vis-à-vis de sa pose et extraire des points clés spatiaux pour construire une signature basée sur son comportement.Nous concevons et évaluons un système complet de ré-identification, découpé en trois modules mis en séquence. Le premier de ces modules correspond à la détection de personnes. Nous proposons de nous baser sur une méthode de l'état de l'art utilisant les Channel Features avec l'algorithme AdaBoost.Le second module est l'alignement du PDM au sein de la boîte englobante fournie par la détection. Deux approches sont présentées dans cette thèse. La première s'appuie sur une formulation paramétrique du modèle de forme. L'alignement de ce modèle est guidé par la maximisation d'un score d'un modèle d'apparence GentleBoost utilisant des caractéristiques locales de type histogrammes de gradients orientés. La seconde approche exploite une technique de cascade de régressions de forme. L'idée principale est le regroupement de déformations homogènes en clusters et la classification de ces derniers dans le but d'aligner le PDM itérativement.Enfin, le troisième module est celui de la ré-identification. Nous montrons que l'utilisation d'un PDM en support permet d'améliorer les résultats de ré-identification. Nos expérimentations portent sur des signatures d'apparence classique, les histogrammes de couleurs, et sur un descripteur de forme, le Shape Context. L'évaluation de ce dernier fournit des résultats encourageants pour une perspective d'utilisation des PDM au sein d'une reconnaissance de démarches. / The emergence of mobile systems brings new problematics in computer vision. Static camera-based methods for re-identification need to be adapted in this new context. To deal with dynamical background, this thesis proposes to employ the well known Point Distribution Model (PDM), usually applied for face alignment, on the human body. Three advantages come from this pre-processing before re-identification, segment the person from background, enhance robustness to the person pose and extract spatial key points to build a behavioural-based signature.We implement and evaluate a complete framework for re-identification, divided in three sequential modules. The first one corresponds to the pedestrian detection. We use an efficient method of the state of the art employing the Channel Features with the algorithm AdaBoost.The second one is the PDM alignment within the bounding box provided by the detection step. Two distinct approaches are presented in this thesis. The first method relies on a parametric formulation to describe the shape, similar to the ASM or AAM. To fit this shape model, we maximize the score of an appearance model defined by GentleBoost, which employs local histograms of oriented gradients. The second approach is based on the cascade regression shape scheme. The main idea is the approximation for each step into a classification of homogeneous deformations, grouped by unsupervised clustering.The third module is the re-identfication one. We show that employing a PDM as a structural support improves re-identification results. We experiment classic appearance-based signatures, color histograms and the shape descriptor Shape Context. The results are encouraging for application perspective of PDM for the gait recognition.
38

A Recommended Neural Trip Distributon Model

Tapkin, Serkan 01 January 2004 (has links) (PDF)
In this dissertation, it is aimed to develop an approach for the trip distribution element which is one of the important phases of four-step travel demand modelling. The trip distribution problem using back-propagation artificial neural networks has been researched in a limited number of studies and, in a critically evaluated study it has been concluded that the artificial neural networks underperform when compared to the traditional models. The underperformance of back-propagation artificial neural networks appears to be due to the thresholding the linearly combined inputs from the input layer in the hidden layer as well as thresholding the linearly combined outputs from the hidden layer in the output layer. In the proposed neural trip distribution model, it is attempted not to threshold the linearly combined outputs from the hidden layer in the output layer. Thus, in this approach, linearly combined iv inputs are activated in the hidden layer as in most neural networks and the neuron in the output layer is used as a summation unit in contrast to other neural networks. When this developed neural trip distribution model is compared with various approaches as modular, gravity and back-propagation neural models, it has been found that reliable trip distribution predictions are obtained.
39

Macroecologia do gênero Uca (Crustacea, Decapoda): padrões de diversidade, distribuição e respostas às mudanças climáticas globais / Macroecology of the genus Uca (Crustacea, Decapoda): patterns of diversity, distribution and responses to global climate change

NABOUT, João Carlos 17 November 2009 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T12:05:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_FINALJoao_Nabout.pdf: 1455749 bytes, checksum: 9b7b11f9fe664d7c2e865eff445ff3d0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-11-17 / Macroecology of the genus Uca (Crustacea, Decapoda): Patterns of diversity, distribution and responses to global change. The genus Uca, composed by 97 species, has a worldwide distribution on coastal marine regions, mainly in tropical environments. Many researches have used the genus Uca as a model of study, although the actual scientific knowledge about this group is dispersed. Moreover, few studies have investigated its global and evolutive patterns. In this sense, considering that the genus Uca has no taxonomic problems (there is a consensus about its distribution and species identification), presents wide geographical distribution and has phylogenetic topologies, this group can be used as an excellent model to test macroecological and evolutionary hypotheses, and to discuss the effects of climate change on coastal organisms. The aim of this study was to detect trends and biases in scientific literature about the genus Uca, as well as to assess macroecological patterns (at a global scale) and to evaluate the influence of climate change on the geographical range size and species richness. Moreover, we associated the information generated to improve conservation strategies for species of the genus Uca. Considering our goals, we generated four papers in this thesis. Among the most prominent results, we observed that, the number of papers about the genus Uca indexed in Thomson ISI database, did not increase between 1991 and 2007, which may indicate the lack of interest of the scientific community on this taxonomic group. Moreover, the majority of the scientific production about the genus Uca came from institutions in the USA. The studies about the genus Uca were mainly characterized as population papers (which analyzes population attributes such as density, distribution and ecological interactions). The results of species accumulation curve demonstrated that the total number of Uca species currently know (97 described species) is substantially lower than the number predicted by the asymptote of the Gompertz model (134 species predicted), suggesting that new species need to be described. However, a new species of Uca is not described since 1987. Models were generated to explain the date of species description based on the body size, geographical range size, human influence and the type of habitat of each species. These models were selected using the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The best model among the candidate ones (explaining 37% of the total variance) was composed by variables representing the geographical range size of species, their body size and the human influence on them. In other words, large-bodied species and those widely distributed, mainly in regions with elevated human influence, were described earlier. In another paper of this thesis, we evaluated the levels of phylogenetic heritability of species of the genus Uca on their geographical range size, shape and position. If a strong phylogenetic signal of geographic range sizes exists between close related species, we can predict the unknown geographic range of species through the known geographic range of its relatives, which is useful for conservation purposes. However, the absence of phylogenetic signal was evidenced for this trait. On the other hand, there was a strong phylogenetic pattern considering the position of the range (mainly along longitudinal axis), probably due to mechanisms of vicariant allopatric speciation and to the geographical structure of the cladogenesis of the group. In the last paper, the impact of global changes on geographic range size of genus Uca were modeled, producing a comprehension about a poleward shift and elaborating maps of species richness based in two scenarios of global change. The models generated presented good performance, and predictions are that the species will probably have reduced the geographical range size and some species will be extinct (considering two scenarios until 2050), mainly in the tropical regions. Moreover, the range of species with midpoints in both hemispheres changed towards to poles in the future scenarios of climatic changes. Finally, the results of this set of papers highlighted the urgency of detailed studies for some species of Uca, and in some coastal marine regions (e.g. Indo-West Pacific) to evaluate the actual status of the distribution of species of the genus Uca and the real species richness of this genus. This is essential to generate local strategies aiming to minimize impacts of global change on coastal organism / O gênero Uca é composto atualmente por 97 espécies, distribuídas mundialmente, ocupando ambientes costeiros marinhos, principalmente da região tropical. Diversos campos de pesquisa têm desenvolvidos trabalhos usando o gênero Uca como modelo, entretanto, atualmente o conhecimento científico sobre esse grupo apresenta-se disperso, além disso, estudos sobre padrões globais e evolutivos ainda são incipientes. Dessa forma, considerando que o gênero Uca é taxonomicamente resolvidos (i.e., consenso na distribuição e identificação das espécies), apresenta ampla distribuição geográfica e existem topologias filogenéticas, estes tornam-se excelentes modelos para testar hipóteses macroecólogicas, evolutivas e discutir efeitos de mudanças climáticas sobre organismos costeiros. O objetivo geral desse trabalho foi avaliar tendências e detectar vieses da literatura científica global de caranguejos do gênero Uca, bem como investigar padrões macroecológicos em escala global e a influência das mudanças climáticas na distribuição geográfica e riqueza de espécies desse grupo de caranguejo, além disso, associar as informações geradas para avançar em estratégias de conservação para essas espécies. Dessa forma, considerando o objetivo geral desse trabalho, foram gerados quatro artigos apresentados nessa tese. Dentre os resultados mais importantes, observamos que o número de artigos sobre Uca indexados na base Thomson ISI não aumentou ao longo dos anos (1991 até 2007), o que pode indicar que não houve aumento de interesse da comunidade científica com esse grupo de organismo, além disso, a maior parte da produção científica sobre Uca foi desenvolvidas por instituições dos Estados Unidos. Os estudos sobre Uca foram principalmente caracterizados como artigos de cunho populacional (i.e. analisaram atributos como densidade, distribuição e interações ecológicas). Apesar de um longo tempo não serem descritas novas espécies de Uca (última espécie foi descrita em 1987), os resultados da curva de acumulação de espécies demonstraram que o número total de espécies de Uca atualmente descrito é menor do que o número de espécies predito pela assíntota do modelo de Gompertz (preditos 134 espécies), sugerindo que existem novas espécies de Uca para serem descritas. Além disso, foram gerados modelos para explicar a data de descrição de espécies, baseado no tamanho da carapaça, tamanho da área de distribuição geográfica, influência humana nos locais de ocorrência das espécies e o tipo de habitat da espécie. Esses modelos foram confrontados e selecionados de acordo com o Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC). O melhor modelo foi composto pelo tamanho da distribuição geográfica, tamanho do corpo e influência humana, explicando 37% da variação total dos dados, dessa forma, as espécies descritas primeiramente apresentaram maior tamanho corpóreo, maiores áreas de distribuição geográfica e ocorrem em regiões de elevada influência humana. Em outro artigo desenvolvido nessa tese, foi avaliado os níveis de herdabilidade filogenética do tamanho, forma e posição da distribuição geográfica de espécies de Uca. A existência do sinal filogenético para o tamanho da distribuição geográfica pode auxiliar em estratégias para conservação, pois é possível prever o tamanho da distribuição geográfica de uma espécie caso se conheça o tamanho da distribuição de uma espécie filogeneticamente próxima. Entretanto, para as espécies de Uca, foi observado ausência de sinal filogenético para esse caráter. Somente a posição da distribuição geográfica (ao longo do eixo longitudinal) apresentou um forte padrão filogenético, possivelmente devido ao processo de especiação alopátrica vicariante e a estrutura geográfica dos clados. Para o último artigo, foram modelados os impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a distribuição geográfica das espécies de Uca, gerando uma compreensão do deslocamento das espécies em direção aos pólos e ainda produzindo um mapa de riqueza de espécies com base em cenário otimistas e pessimistas de mudanças climáticas globais. Os modelos gerados apresentaram bom desempenho, e grande parte das espécies de Uca apresentarão diminuição da distribuição geográfica acarretando perda de espécies (para cenários projetados para 2050), principalmente nas regiões tropicais, ainda assim, as espécies com pontos médios de ocorrência em ambos os hemisfério, tenderão a direcionar-se para os pólos nos cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas. Por fim, os resultados desse conjunto de artigos evidenciam a urgência de estudos ambientais para diversas espécies de Uca e de regiões costeiras (e.g. Indo-Oeste Pacífico) a fim de gerar um painel atualizado da distribuição e riqueza de espécies de Uca, que permitirão gerar estratégias locais para minimizar impactos das mudanças climáticas
40

Correction de l’effet du biais d’échantillonnage dans la modélisation de la qualité des habitats écologiques : application au principal vecteur du paludisme en Guyane française / Correction of the effect of sampling bias in ecological habitats suitability modeling : application to the main vector of malaria in French Guiana

Moua, Yi 28 March 2017 (has links)
Les modèles de distribution d’espèces ont été identifiées comme pertinents pour cartographier et caractériser la qualitéd’habitat des moustiques vecteurs du paludisme, Anopheles, afin de participer à l’estimation du risque de transmission decette maladie et à la définition de stratégies de lutte anti-vectorielle ciblées. La transmission du paludisme dépend de laprésence et de la distribution des vecteurs, qui dépendent elles-mêmes des conditions environnementales définissant laqualité des habitats écologiques des Anopheles. Cependant, dans certaines régions, les données de captures d’Anophelessont rares, et rend difficile la cartographie de leurs habitats. De plus, le recueil de ces données est très souvent soumis à desbiais d’échantillonnage.Cette thèse fournit une solution à la cartographie des vecteurs du paludisme, en considérant deux aspects très peu étudiésdans la modélisation : le faible nombre de sites de présence disponibles et l’existence d’un biais d’échantillonnage. Uneméthode originale de correction de l’effet du biais d’échantillonnage est proposée puis appliquée à des données de présencedu principal vecteur du paludisme en Guyane, Anopheles darlingi. Un modèle de distribution d’An. darlingi a ensuite étéconstruit, permettant d’obtenir une carte de qualité d’habitat en cohérence avec la connaissance des entomologistes etfournissant des performances de prédiction élevées. La méthode de correction proposée a ensuite été comparée auxméthodes existantes dans un contexte applicatif caractérisé par la rareté des données d’occurrence de l’espèce et laprésence d’un biais d’échantillonnage. Les résultats montrent que la méthode développée est adaptée aux cas où le nombrede sites de présence est faible. Cette thèse contribue, d’une part, à combler les lacunes théoriques et d’applicabilité desméthodes actuelles visant à corriger l’effet des biais d’échantillonnage et, d’autre part, à compléter la connaissance sur ladistribution spatiale et la bioécologie du principal vecteur du paludisme en Guyane française. / Species distribution models are identified as relevant to map and characterize the habitat quality of Anopheles genusmosquitoes, transmitting malaria, and thus to both participate in the estimation of the transmission risk of this disease and inthe definition of targeted vector control actions. The malaria transmission depends on the presence and distribution of thevectors, which are themselves dependent on the environmental conditions that define the quality of the ecological habitats of the Anopheles. However, in some areas, Anopheles collection data remain scarce, making it difficult to model these habitats. In addition, the collection of these data is very often subjected to significant sampling biases, due, in particular, to unequal accessibility to the entire study area. This thesis provides a solution to the mapping of malaria vectors, considering two very few studied aspects in modeling: the low number of available presence sites and the existence of a sampling bias. An original method for correcting the effect of the sampling bias is proposed and then applied to presence data of Anopheles darlingi species - the main vector of malaria in South America - in French Guiana. Then, a distribution model of An. darlingi was built to obtain a map of habitat quality consistent with entomologists’ knowledge and providing high prediction performances. The proposed correction method was then compared to existing methods in an application context characterized by the scarcity of the species occurence data and the presence of a sampling bias. The results show that the developed method is adapted to cases where the number of sites of presence is low. This thesis contributes, on the one hand, to fill theoretical and applicability lacuna of current methods intended to correct the effect of the sampling bias and, on the other hand, to supplement the knowledge on both the spatial distribution and the bio-ecology of the main malaria vector in French Guiana.

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