The theoretical part of this thesis deals with distribution networks in terms of distribution according to different criteria, describes the main elements of electric distribution networks and their qualities. The following describes the methods of calculating the steady state of electrical networks. These methods are nowadays used as basics for computer programs. In the penultimate chapter of the theoretical part are summarized the principles for the development of present networks and construction of new electrical networks. The aim of practical part of the thesis is to assess the current condition of the network 22 kV in the city of Brno and assess the condition after installation of 110/22 kV transformation in Brno-Sever switching substation. After evaluating the results of steady state electrical network and identifying certain problems is the following aim a proposal of solving problems that emerged in the network. The result should be operational, functional and reliable electric distribution network. This thesis used to calculate the steady state electrical networks by software PAS DAISY Off-Line Bizon V4.

Face à la forte concurrence internationale, de nombreuses entreprises manufacturières orientent leurs investissements vers les marchés africains pour accroître leur part de marché et rester compétitives sur le marché mondial. Ces marchés sont effet en plein essor mais demandent des produits de grande diversité. En dépit de cette attractivité, les flux commerciaux en Afrique demeurent faibles en raison de la faible qualité des infrastructures et de l’absence d’écosystèmes logistiques régionaux connectant les pays africains de manière fiable et efficace.C’est pourquoi cette thèse de doctorat s’intéresse à la modélisation et à la résolution du problème de conception de réseaux de distribution hybrides en Afrique, intégrant des plateformes de distribution et de personnalisation finale des produits. Ces réseaux incluent, en amont, des hubs régionaux servant de porte d’entrée vers les marchés d’une région continentale. Le report de la personnalisation finale en aval du réseau logistique permet de réduire les délais de livraison aux marchés et le coût de distribution tout en maintenant une économie d’échelle. La méthodologie que nous proposons repose sur deux grands axes de recherche :▪ Le premier axe vise à définir la localisation des hubs logistiques régionaux, sur la base d’une analyse multicritères floue, version améliorée de TOPSIS floue et d'AHP ;▪ Le deuxième axe aborde conception de réseaux de distribution hybrides servant des marchés fortement diversifiés (exemple : marchés des engrais). Nous avons proposé deux nouveaux modèles d'optimisation multi-objectifs minimisant le coût total d’exploitation et d’investissement, maximisant la proximité des produits aux marchés et minimisant les dommages sur les produits finis durant leur distribution. Le premier modèle est déterministe tandis que le deuxième propose une conception flexible alignée sur la dynamique et l’incertitude de l’évolution des marchés africains. / In the context of intense international competition, many manufacturing firms are directing their investments toward African markets to increase their market share and maintain their competitiveness in the global market. These markets are rapidly growing but require customized products. Despite their attractivity, trade flows in Africa remain low due to the poor quality of infrastructure and the lack of regional logistic ecosystems, connecting African countries through reliable and efficient services.This doctoral thesis therefore focuses on modelling and solving the problem of designing hybrid distribution networks in Africa, integrating distribution and final customization platforms. These networks incorporate, upstream, regional hubs that serve as gateways to regional markets. The postponement of final customization downstream of the logistics network reduces the delivery times and downstream distribution costs while maintaining upstream economies of scale.The methodology we suggest is based on two main areas of research:▪ The first axis aims to define the location of regional logistics hubs, based on a fuzzy multi-criteria analysis approach, which is an improved version of TOPSIS fuzzy and AHP;▪ The second axis focuses on the design of hybrid distribution networks serving highly diversified markets in Africa (for example: fertilizer markets). To this aim, we propose two new multi-objective optimization models minimizing total operating and investment costs, maximizing product proximity to markets and minimizing damage to finished products during their distribution. The first model is deterministic while the second one proposes a flexible design in response to the dynamics and uncertainty of the evolution of African markets.

Esta dissertação considera a atuação das empresas responsáveis pelas redes de distribuição de água, energia elétrica e gás natural denominadas Redes de Distribuição de Utilidades (RDUs) como sistemas produtivos, com o propósito de conhecer e avaliar a maneira como os esforços de melhoria da produtividade são conduzidos em busca de metas como maior qualidade, menor custo e menor prazo de entrega ao cliente. Este estudo é desenvolvido tomando-se como referência o modelo da produção enxuta, desenvolvido pela Toyota Motor Company do Japão, fundamentado no princípio de buscar o aumento da produtividade por meio da identificação e eliminação de desperdícios. Embora originalmente disseminada na cadeia da indústria automobilística, a adoção e adaptação da abordagem de melhoria de processos deste modelo têm sido consideradas em diferentes setores. Assim, o presente trabalho tem como motivação explorar as possibilidades de estender a aplicação de conceitos e práticas da produção enxuta em empresas de RDU. Primeiramente, a cadeia de valor das RDUs é analisada, e são escolhidos dois processos construção e manutenção para o desenvolvimento do estudo. Em seguida, é apresentada uma revisão bibliográfica, a partir da qual um conjunto de dezenove práticas enxutas possivelmente aplicáveis aos processos escolhidos é identificado. Por meio de três estudos de caso, analisa-se em que medida as empresas responsáveis pelas RDUs aplicam tais práticas enxutas em seus processos, e em que medida a aplicação atual ou uma possível aplicação futura de cada prática enxuta é motivada pelo pensamento enxuto. Com base nos dados levantados na pesquisa de campo, as práticas consideradas são avaliadas quanto ao potencial de efetiva aplicação em cada processo, levando-se em conta o objetivo de eliminação de desperdício. O estudo possibilitou verificar que todas as dezenove práticas são aplicáveis a pelo menos um dos processos considerados, sendo a maioria aplicável a ambos. / This dissertation considers the performance of the companies that are responsible for water, electricity and natural gas networks named Utility Distribution Networks (UDN) as productive systems, in order to understand and evaluate the way that the efforts for continuous productivity improvement of their processes are conducted in search of goals such as more quality, less cost and less lead time to customer. The model that is used as a reference for this study is the lean production model, which was developed by the Toyota Motor Company in Japan, founded on the principle of search for productivity increase by the elimination on waste. Although it was originally disseminated in the auto industry value chain, the process improvement approach from this model has been considered in different industries. Therefore, the present work is motivated by the chance to explore the possibility of extending the lean production application concepts and practices to UDN companies. Firstly, UDNs value stream is analyzed, and two processes are chosen construction and maintenance for the development of study. Then, a bibliographic review is presented, from which a set of nineteen lean practices that maybe possibly applicable on the chosen processes is identified. By the development of three case studies, an evaluation is performed with the objective to analyze to what extent the companies that are responsible for UDN apply those lean practices on their processes, and to what extent the current application or a possible future application of each lean practice is motivated by lean thinking. Based on the data from the field research, the potential for effective application of the considered practices is evaluated for each process, taking into consideration the objective of elimination of waste. The study made it possible to verify that all the nineteen practices are applicable at least on one of the considered processes, and the majority is applicable on both processes.

<p>U disertaciji je predložen metod za proračun kompleksnih kratkih spojeva u aktivnim, neuravnoteženim distributivnim mrežama velikih dimenzija. Predloženim metodom je moguće proračunavati kompleksne kratke spojeve sa proizvoljno izabranim brojem čvorova i brojem faza zahvaćenih kratkim spojem, bez prethodnog komplikovanog izvođenja uslova kratkog spoja. Različiti kratki spojevi se definišu jednostavnom inspekcijom. Pored toga, svi elementi distributivne mreže su modelovani dovoljno preciznim modelima, uključujući i savremene distribuirane energetske izvore. Posebna pažnja je posvećena ovim elementima i izvođenju njihovoh modela pogodnim za proračune kratkih spojeva mreža velikih dimenzija, s obzirom da ti modeli do sada nisu bili razvijeni, a broj ovih uređaja u distributivnim mrežama je sve veći. Predloženim metodom je moguće proračunavati neuravnotežene sisteme u nesimetričnim režimima pre kratkog spoja, a proračun se vrši u domenu simetričnih komponenti. Ova činjenica čini predloženi metod izuzetno brzim i pogodnim za &ldquo;on-line mode&rdquo; distributivnog menadžment sistema. Numerički rezultati na nekoliko reprezentativnih mreža jasno prikazuju prednost predloženog metoda u odnosu na postojeće metode za proračune kratkih spojeva distributtivnih mreža.</p> / <p>In this dissertation a calculation method for quantifying the impact of complex short-circuits on active unbalanced distribution systems is proposed. Unlike previous distribution system short-circuit calculations, the proposed method is capable of solving complex short-circuits with an arbitrary number of faulted busses and phases, without predefining the boundary (fault) conditions. Different short-circuits are defined by simple inspection of these faults. Moreover, all distribution system elements are appropriately modeled and integrated in the proposed method, including electronically coupled distributed energy resources (DERs). The development of new models for these DERs, suitable for on-line calculations of large-scale systems, is specially stressed as these models have not been developed yet. Finally, the proposed calculation procedure is capable of solving unbalanced systems, including mutually coupled sections, in unsymmetrical pre-fault states, and it is performed in the sequence domain. This makes the proposed method particularly fast and suitable for online distribution system analysis. The computation results show the advantages of the proposed method relative to previous short-circuit calculation methods, regarding both the required calculation time and the accuracy.</p>

Les réseaux de distribution d’eau consistent en de grandes infrastructures réparties dans l’espace qui assurent la distribution d’eau potable en quantité et en qualité suffisantes. Les modèles mathématiques de ces systèmes sont caractérisés par un grand nombre de variables d’état et de paramètres dont la plupart sont incertains. Les temps de calcul peuvent s’avérer conséquents pour les réseaux de taille importante et la propagation d’incertitude par des méthodes de Monte Carlo. Par conséquent, les deux principaux objectifs de cette thèse sont l’étude des techniques de modélisation à ordre réduit par projection ainsi que la propagation spectrale des incertitudes des paramètres. La thèse donne tout d’abord un aperçu des méthodes mathématiques utilisées. Ensuite, les équations permanentes des réseaux hydrauliques sont présentées et une nouvelle méthode de calcul des sensibilités est dérivée sur la base de la méthode adjointe. Les objectifs spécifiques du développement de modèles d’ordre réduit sont l’application de méthodes basées sur la projection, le développement de stratégies d’échantillonnage adaptatives plus efficaces et l’utilisation de méthodes d’hyper-réduction pour l’évaluation rapide des termes résiduels non linéaires. Pour la propagation des incertitudes, des méthodes spectrales sont introduites dans le modèle hydraulique et un modèle hydraulique intrusif est formulé. Dans le but d’une analyse plus efficace des incertitudes des paramètres, la propagation spectrale est ensuite évaluée sur la base du modèle réduit. Les résultats montrent que les modèles d’ordre réduit basés sur des projections offrent un avantage considérable par rapport à l’effort de calcul. Bien que l’utilisation de l’échantillonnage adaptatif permette une utilisation plus efficace des états système pré-calculés, l’utilisation de méthodes d’hyper-réduction n’a pas permis d’améliorer la charge de calcul. La propagation des incertitudes des paramètres sur la base des méthodes spectrales est comparable aux simulations de Monte Carlo en termes de précision, tout en réduisant considérablement l’effort de calcul. / Water distribution systems are large, spatially distributed infrastructures that ensure the distribution of potable water of sufficient quantity and quality. Mathematical models of these systems are characterized by a large number of state variables and parameter. Two major challenges are given by the time constraints for the solution and the uncertain character of the model parameters. The main objectives of this thesis are thus the investigation of projection based reduced order modelling techniques for the time efficient solution of the hydraulic system as well as the spectral propagation of parameter uncertainties for the improved quantification of uncertainties. The thesis gives an overview of the mathematical methods that are being used. This is followed by the definition and discussion of the hydraulic network model, for which a new method for the derivation of the sensitivities is presented based on the adjoint method. The specific objectives for the development of reduced order models are the application of projection based methods, the development of more efficient adaptive sampling strategies and the use of hyper-reduction methods for the fast evaluation of non-linear residual terms. For the propagation of uncertainties spectral methods are introduced to the hydraulic model and an intrusive hydraulic model is formulated. With the objective of a more efficient analysis of the parameter uncertainties, the spectral propagation is then evaluated on the basis of the reduced model. The results show that projection based reduced order models give a considerable benefit with respect to the computational effort. While the use of adaptive sampling resulted in a more efficient use of pre-calculated system states, the use of hyper-reduction methods could not improve the computational burden and has to be explored further. The propagation of the parameter uncertainties on the basis of the spectral methods is shown to be comparable to Monte Carlo simulations in accuracy, while significantly reducing the computational effort.

Voltage imbalance in low voltage (LV) networks is expected to deteriorate as low carbon technologies, e.g. electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps (HPs) are increasingly deployed. The new electrical demand attributable to EVs and HPs would increase the voltage magnitude variation, increasing the possibility of voltages moving outside the statutory LV magnitude limits. Moreover, the single-phase nature of EVs and HPs, which will be connected via a single-phase 'line &amp; neutral' cable to a 3-phase four-wire LV mains cable buried beneath the street, further entangles this voltage management problem; the non-balanced voltage variations in the three phases boost the levels of voltage imbalance. Excessive voltage imbalance and magnitude variation need to be mitigated to limit their adverse effects on the electric network and connected plant. The voltage imbalance in LV networks is conventionally reduced by reinforcing the network, generally at a high cost. Some modern methods for voltage imbalance mitigation have been introduced in recent years. The power electronic converter based methods are inadequate due to the generation of harmonics, significant power losses and short lifetime. Besides, automatic supply phase selection and smart EV charging rely on an advanced smart communication system, which currently is not available. This project aims to develop alternative solutions that mitigate the voltage imbalance seen in LV networks. A voltage balancing method based on Scott transformer (ST) is proposed. This method does not generate harmonics and is independent of the smart communication system. Computer simulations demonstrated the proposed method is able to convert a non-balanced 3-phase voltage into a balanced 3-phase voltage at either a point on the LV feeder or a 3-phase load supply point with the predefined voltage magnitude. Besides, a physical voltage balancing system was created based on the proposed method and it was tested in an LV network in the laboratory. The test results show the balancing system is capable of maintaining a low level of voltage imbalance on the LV feeder by rapidly compensating for the voltage rises and sags caused by single-phase load variations. This voltage balancing method is a potential solution for the network utilities to accommodate the significant penetration of low carbon technologies without breaching the network voltage limits. The impact of EVs and HPs on the LV network voltages is investigated based on a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation platform, which comprises a statistical model of EV charging demand, profiles generators of residential and HP electrical demand, and a distribution network model. The MC simulation indicates the impact of EVs and HPs is related to their distribution; when more than 21EVs and 13HPs are non-evenly distributed on a 96-customer LV feeder, the voltage limits are likely to be violated. Moreover, the effectiveness of the ST based voltage balancing method and the demand response based TOU tariff, implemented either alone or together, in mitigating the impact of EVs and HPs is investigated based on the established MC simulation platform. The results indicate the ST based balancing method alone is able to completely mitigate the voltage limit violations regardless of the penetration levels of EVs and HPs. Moreover, using both of the two investigated methods further enhances the balancing effectiveness of the ST based voltage balancing method.

La diminution de la longueur de grille des transistors a été le moteur essentiel de l’évolution des circuits intégrés microélectroniques ces dernières décennies. Toutefois, cette évolution des circuits microélectroniques a entrainé une densification des lignes d’interconnexion, donc la génération de fortes pertes, des ralentissements et de la diaphonie sur les signaux transmis, ainsi qu’une augmentation de l’impédance parasite des interconnexions. Cette dernière est néfaste pour l’intégrité de l’alimentation des composants actifs présents dans le circuit. Son augmentation multiplie le risque d’apparition d’erreurs numériques conduisant au dysfonctionnement d’un système. Il est donc nécessaire de réduire l’impédance sur le réseau d’alimentation des circuits intégrés. Pour ce faire, les condensateurs de découplage sont utilisés et placés hiérarchiquement à différents étages des circuits et dans leur intégralité (PCB, package, interposeur, puce).Ces travaux de doctorat s’inscrivent dans le cadre des développements récents des nouvelles solutions d’intégration 3D en microélectronique et ils portent sur l’étude de nouvelles architectures de capacités 3D, très intégrées et à fortes valeurs (>1 nF), élaborées en profondeur dans l’interposeur silicium. Ces composants, inspirés des architectures de via traversant le silicium (TSV, Through Silicon Via), sont nommées Through Silicon Capacitors (TSC). Ils constituent un élément clef pour l’amélioration des performances des alimentations des circuits intégrés car elles pourront réduire efficacement la consommation des circuits grâce à cette intégration directe de composants passifs dans l’interposeur silicium qui sert d’étage d’accueil des puces. Ces composants tridimensionnels permettent en effet d’atteindre de grandes densités de capacité de 35 nF/mm². Les enjeux sont stratégiques pour des applications embarquées et à haut débit et plus généralement dans un environnement économique et sociétal conscient de nos limites énergétiques. De plus ces condensateurs de découplage doivent fonctionner à des fréquences atteignant 2 GHz, voire 4 GHz, qui tendent à maximiser les effets parasites préjudiciables aux performances énergétiques des alimentations. Ceci est rendu possible par l’optimisation de leur intégration et l’utilisation de couches de cuivre avec, une bonne conductivité supérieure à 45 MS/m, comme électrodes.Les technologies d’élaboration des condensateurs TSC ont été développées au sein du CEA-LETI et de STMicroelectronics. Leur comportement électrique restait jusqu’alors mal connu et leurs performances difficiles à quantifier. Les études menées dans cette thèse consistaient à modéliser ces nouveaux composants en prenant en compte les paramètres matériaux et géométriques afin de connaitre les effets parasites. Les modèles électriques établis ont été confrontés à des caractérisations électriques effectuées sur une large bande de fréquence (du DC à 40 GHz). Ainsi ce travail a permis d’optimiser une architecture de capacité et leur intégration dans un réseau d’alimentation d’un circuit intégré 3D a pu montrer leur efficacité pour des opérations de découplage. / The decrease of transistor’s gate length was the key driver of the development of microelectronic integrated circuits in recent decades. However, this development of microelectronic circuits has led to a greater density of interconnection lines, generating high losses, slowdowns and crosstalk on the transmitted signals, and an increase of the parasitic impedance of interconnections lines. The latter is detrimental to the power integrity of the active components in the circuit. Its increase increases the risk of developing numerical errors leading to a system’s malfunction. It is therefore necessary to reduce the impedance of the power distribution network of integrated circuits. To do this, the decoupling capacitors are used and placed hierarchically on different floors of the circuits and in their entirety (PCB, package, interposer, chip).These doctoral works are in the context of recent developments in new 3D integration solutions in microelectronics and they carry on studying new 3D capacitors, highly integrated, presenting high capacitance values (> 1 nF), and developed by using the depth of silicon interposeur level. Inspired from the Through Silicon Vias (TSV), these newly developed 3D capacitors are named Through Silicon Capacitors (TSC). They are a key element for improving the performance of the power integrated circuits because they can efficiently reduce the consumption of circuits thanks to their direct integration in silicon interposer which is used to stack chips. These 3D components allow tor reach high capacitance density up to 35 nF/mm². The issues are strategic for high speed embedded applications and more generally in an economic and societal environment aware of our energy limits. Moreover these decoupling capacitors must operate at frequencies up to 2 GHz or 4 GHz, which tend to maximize the parasitic effects which affect the energy efficiency of power distribution networks. This is made possible by optimizing their integration and by the use of copper layers with a good conductivity higher than 45 MS / m conductivity as electrodes.The technologies used to fabricate the TSC are developed by CEA-LETI and STMicroelectronics. The electrical behavior of those TSC remained hitherto little known and their performances difficult to quantify. The studies conducted in this thesis were to model these new components by taking into account the material and geometrical parameters in order to know the parasitic effects. The established electrical models have faced electrical characterizations carried out over a wide frequency range (DC to 40 GHz). This work allow to optimize the TSC architecture and their integration in a power distribution network (Power Distribution Network - NDS) prove that they are good candidate for decoupling operations.

Le Système Électrique est soumis ces dernières années à plusieurs évolutions, depuis la dérégulationdu marché d'énergie à l'intégration de plus en plus importante de Générateurs Dispersés (GED). Ainsi,dans le cadre du concept de Smart Grid, les nouvelles technologies de l'information et de lacommunication (NTIC) offrent de nouvelles perspectives pour la gestion et l'exploitation des réseauxde distribution.Dans ce contexte, de nouveaux outils sont étudiés. Encore appelés Fonctions Avancéesd’Automatisation (FAA), le but principal de ces outils est d’utiliser tous les composants du réseau dedistribution de manière coordonnée en vue de les rendre plus actifs, flexibles et d’augmenter leurefficacité opérationnelle. Dans notre cas, nous avons étudié les fonctions associées à la reconfigurationen régime normal, du réglage de la tension et l’hybridation de ces deux derniers, tout en tenant comptede la présence des GED. En partant du comportement physique inhérent aux composants du réseau,plusieurs modèles ont été proposés. Certains sont tirés de la théorie des graphes et d’autres sur l’outilpuissant de la reformulation mathématique pour « convexifier » nos modèles. Cette modélisationadoptée répond à la fois à la nécessité de prendre en compte tous les moyens de réglages qui peuventêtre discrets (prises des transformateurs avec régleurs en charge ou des gradins de condensateurs),binaires (état de connectivité des composants) et continues (puissance réactive de la DG) et par lechoix des outils et des algorithmes d'optimisation mixte. En effet, la complexité de ces problèmes sonttelles que nous avons exploré à la fois des algorithmes méta-heuristiques (ACF : Algorithme desColonies de Fourmis) que déterministes (Décomposition de Benders Généralisée, Algorithme duBranch and Cut). / The Electric Power System is undergoing a lot of evolutions in recent years, including the energymarket deregulation and the increasing integration of Dispersed Generators (DG). Therefore, withinthe framework of Smart Grid concept, the New Information and Communication Technologies (NICT)provide new perspectives to manage and operate distribution networks.In this context, new tools, called Advanced Distribution Automation functions (ADA, are beingstudied). The main objective of these tools is to use all the distribution network components in acoordinated manner to make them more active and flexible, in addition to increasing their operationalefficiency. In our case, we studied the functions associated with the reconfiguration problem, thevoltage control problem and the hybridization of these two, while taking into account the presence ofthe DG. Based on the inherent components of network physical models, several models have beenproposed. Some are derived from the graph theory and others use powerful mathematicalreformulation to make our models convex. The adopted models answer to the necessity of taking intoaccount all regulation means, which can be discrete (On Load Tap-Changer and capacitor banks),binary (components connectivity such as lines or transformers) and continuous (DG reactive power ),and by the choice of tools and algorithms of mixed optimization. Indeed, the complexity of theseproblems is such that we have explored both algorithms: meta-heuristic (ACA, Ant Colony Algorithm)and deterministic (Generalized Benders Decomposition, Branch and Cut Algorithm).

Orientador: Antonio Padilha Feltrin / Resumo: Neste trabalho é apresentado um método que permite determinar o crescimento espaço-temporal da demanda de energia elétrica devido às mudanças nos hábitos de consumo no setor residencial. A proposta é baseada em uma regressão ponderada geograficamente que permite determinar a localização espacial dos setores com maior proporção de residências candidatas para comprar um novo eletrodoméstico, e uma regressão de distribuição logística que permite simular em cada setor, como vai ser o crescimento ao longo do tempo dessa proporção de residências candidatas para comprar o aparelho. Finalmente, o método determina o impacto nas curvas de carga dos transformadores de distribuição, considerando: o número de residências candidatas em cada setor, e informações do eletrodoméstico em estudo, tais como: curva de carga em p.u, potência nominal, fator de utilização, fator de coincidência e fator de potência. A região em estudo é dividida em pequenas subáreas, com o objetivo de melhorar a resolução espacial do prognóstico, e também considerar interrelações de proximidade entre as subáreas, para determinar como as decisões tomadas em um local influenciam nas preferências de seus vizinhos. O método proposto usa como dados de entrada variáveis socioeconômicas do censo da população que são de fácil acesso para as empresas do setor elétrico e que caracterizam a economia e as preferências da população da cidade em estudo. O método proposto foi aplicado em uma cidade de médio porte da República do Equ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Mestre

Submitted by MARIO ANDRES MEJIA ALZATE (marioandretty_17@hotmail.com) on 2017-01-15T06:04:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Mestrado_final_1 (2).pdf: 10151663 bytes, checksum: 19b32f17aadb3d9188da99327b13cc74 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by LUIZA DE MENEZES ROMANETTO (luizamenezes@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2017-01-19T17:23:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 mejiaalzate_ma_me_ilha.pdf: 10151663 bytes, checksum: 19b32f17aadb3d9188da99327b13cc74 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-19T17:23:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 mejiaalzate_ma_me_ilha.pdf: 10151663 bytes, checksum: 19b32f17aadb3d9188da99327b13cc74 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-19 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Neste trabalho é apresentado um método que permite determinar o crescimento espaço-temporal da demanda de energia elétrica devido às mudanças nos hábitos de consumo no setor residencial. A proposta é baseada em uma regressão ponderada geograficamente que permite determinar a localização espacial dos setores com maior proporção de residências candidatas para comprar um novo eletrodoméstico, e uma regressão de distribuição logística que permite simular em cada setor, como vai ser o crescimento ao longo do tempo dessa proporção de residências candidatas para comprar o aparelho. Finalmente, o método determina o impacto nas curvas de carga dos transformadores de distribuição, considerando: o número de residências candidatas em cada setor, e informações do eletrodoméstico em estudo, tais como: curva de carga em p.u, potência nominal, fator de utilização, fator de coincidência e fator de potência. A região em estudo é dividida em pequenas subáreas, com o objetivo de melhorar a resolução espacial do prognóstico, e também considerar interrelações de proximidade entre as subáreas, para determinar como as decisões tomadas em um local influenciam nas preferências de seus vizinhos. O método proposto usa como dados de entrada variáveis socioeconômicas do censo da população que são de fácil acesso para as empresas do setor elétrico e que caracterizam a economia e as preferências da população da cidade em estudo. O método proposto foi aplicado em uma cidade de médio porte da República do Equador a fim de determinar o crescimento espaço-temporal da demanda de energia devido à compra de fogões de indução. Os resultados obtidos são mapas que permitem identificar os setores mais vulneráveis para apresentar crescimento da demanda devido à compra do eletrodoméstico. Também são apresentados gráficos que mostram o impacto nas curvas de carga dos transformadores durante o período de estudo estabelecido. Esses resultados fornecem informações importantes que servem de referência no planejamento do sistema de distribuição e do mercado de energia elétrica. / This work presents a method to determine the spatial-temporal growth of electric energy demand due to changes in consumption habits in the residential sector. The proposal is based on a geographically weighted regression that allows us to determine the spatial location of the sectors with the highest proportion of candidate households to buy a new appliance, and a logistic distribution regression that allows us to simulate in each of these sectors, the growth over time, the proportion of households that are candidates to buy this appliance. Finally, the method determines the impact on the load curves of the distribution transformers, considering: the number of candidate households in each sector, and information of the home appliance, such as: load curve in pu, nominal power, utilization factor, Coincidence factor and power factor. The study area is divided into small subareas with the aim of improving the spatial resolution of the prognosis and also considers the interrelation of proximity between the subareas to determine how decisions made in one place can influence the preferences of its neighbors. The input data of the proposed method are socioeconomic variables of the population census, which are easily accessible to companies in the electricity sector, and which characterize the economy and the preferences of the population of the studied city. The method was applied in a medium-sized city of the Republic of Ecuador in order to determine the spatial-temporal growth of energy demand due to the purchase of induction stoves. The results obtained are maps that allow identifying the most vulnerable sectors to show increased demand due to the purchase of the appliance. Also, graphs were obtained that show the impact on the load curves of the transformers during the established study period. These results provide important information that serve as a reference in planning the distribution system and the electricity market.