Kraftindustrin arbetar oavbrutet med att försöka höja och upprätthålla dammsäkerheten i Sverige. Erosionsskydd för fyllningsdammar skall dimensioneras och utformas så att de medverkar till en god dammsäkerhet. Vid dimensionering och projektering av erosionskydd måste vågberäkningar utföras för att bedöma angripande våglast. I Sverige genomförs dessa beräkningar utifrån kraftföretagens riktlinjer för dammsäkerhet, RIDAS. Uträkningarna och bedömningar av våglasterna är ur dammsäkerhetssynpunkt viktiga eftersom de ofta avgör erforderligt fribord. Vågberäkningarna är behäftade med stora osäkerheter, speciellt i fall då störningar i form av öar, uddar och uppgrundande partier finns framför dammkonstruktionen. Syftet med examensarbetet har varit att utvärdera vågförhållanden och därmed våglasterna på Vojmsjöns regleringsdamm. Vågförhållandena har simulerats och analyserats med den numeriska modellen MIKE 21 Spectral Wave. Tillvägagångssättet är nytt och modellen har tidigare inte använts inom området. Således genomfördes en verifiering och orienterande kalibrering i magasin Sädvajaure. Utifrån de kunskaper och erfarenheter som erhölls vid utförandet i Sädvajaure användes modellen i fallstudie Vojmsjön. Ett mer övergripande syfte har varit att utreda om förfarandet är en ny möjlig metod för att utvärdera vågor i vattenkraftmagsin. Undersökningen i Sädvajaure visade på en relativt god korrelation mellan uppmätta och simulerade våghöjder. Modellens noggrannhet är starkt beroende av tillförlitligheten hos indata. Mer exakt indata hade förmodligen resulterat i ännu bättre samband. Fallstudie Vojmsjön visade på signifikanta skillnader i resultat mellan vågberäkningarna enligt RIDAS och de av modellen simulerade. RIDAS beräkningsmetoder överskattar våghöjderna i området framför Vojmsjöns regleringsdamm, främst till följd av att beräkningarna genomförs med grova förenklingar av magasinets form och att vågorna antas propagera fritt utan inverkan av refraktion och uppgrundande partier. Förfarandet med att använda en numerisk modell för att analysera vågor i vattenkraftmagasin anses vara tillämpbar. Metoden bedöms, utifrån denna studie, vara ett bra komplement för tillfällen när RIDAS beräkningsmetoder anses vara otillräckliga och särskilda utredningar är påkallade. Liknande mer grundliga utredningar, skulle kunna ge bra underlag för att fatta goda ekonomiska och dammsäkerhetsmässiga beslut. / The power industry is constantly trying to raise and maintain the safety of dams in Sweden. Erosion protection for embankment should be designed to contribute to a high level of dam safety. When designing an erosion protection, wave calculation must be carried out to assess the wave load. In Sweden, these calculations and assessments are based on the Power Companies Guidelines for Dam Safety, named RIDAS. The calculation of wave loads is important from a dam safety point of view, because they often determine the required freeboard. The wave calculations are subject to large uncertainties especially in cases when islands, capes and shoaling areas are located in front of the dam construction. The aim of the thesis has been to assess the wave conditions and thereby the wave loads in reservoir Vojmsjön. The approach has been to simulate and analyse the wave conditions with a numerical model MIKE 21 Spectral Wave. The procedure is new and a verification and orientated calibration was conducted since the model has not previously been used in the field. The verification of the model was carried out in reservoir Sädvajaure. Based on the knowledge and experience obtained during the investigation at Sädvajaure the model was used in the case study Vojmsjön. A more general aim has been to investigate whether the approach is a new possible method to evaluate waves in hydropower reservoirs. The investigation in Sädvajaure showed a relatively good correlation between measured and simulated wave heights. The model precision is highly dependent on the accuracy of input data. More accurate input data had probably given even better results. Case study Vojmsjön showed significant differences in result between wave calculation based on RIDAS and the model simulated. RIDAS calculation methods overestimate the wave heights in the area in front of regulation dam Vojmsjön. Mainly because the calculations are based on simplifications of the reservoir structure, but also depending on the fact that the waves are assumed propagating freely without the influence of refraction and shoaling. The approach of using a numerical model to evaluate the waves in hydropower reservoirs is believed to be applicable. The method is considered to be useful as a complement in investigations when RIDAS calculation methods are considered being insufficient and special investigations is necessary. Similar more extended investigations could provide good material to make good decisions, both from an economic and a dam safety point of view.

Multi-purpose project requirements lead to construction of large dams. In order to maintain the desired safety level of such dams, comprehensive inspections based on use of a number of precise instruments are needed. The ideal dam instrumentation system should provide time-dependent information about critical parameters so that possible future behavior of the structure can be predicted. New dams are normally equipped with adequate instrumentation systems. Most of the existing dams, however, do not have adequate instruments or current instrumentation systems may not be in good condition. By implementing the modern equipment to existing dams, the uncertainty associated with the impacts of aging or unexpected severe external events will be reduced and possible remedial measures can be taken accordingly. This study summarizes the major causes of dam failures and introduces the instruments to be used to monitor the key parameters of a dam. The concept of the instrument retrofitting to an unmonitored dam is highlighted through a case study. A sample system is proposed for G&ouml / k&ccedil / ekaya Dam, with reference to an investigation of the current condition of the structure. The deficiencies observed during a site visit are listed and the corresponding rehabilitative repair measures are suggested. Finally, different alternatives of a new instrumentation system are introduced and compared in terms of technical and economical aspects.

Dams are large hydraulic structures constructed to meet various project demands. Their roles in both environment and the economy of a country are so important that their design and construction should be carried out for negligibly small risk. Conventional design approaches are deterministic, which ignore variations of the governing variables. To offset this limitation, high safety factors are considered that increase the cost of the structure. Reliability&ndash / based design approaches are probabilistic in nature since possible sources of uncertainties associated with the variables are identified using statistical information, which are incorporated into the reliability models. Risk analysis with the integration of risk management and risk assessment is a growing trend in dam safety. A computer program, named CADAM, which is based on probabilistic treatment of random loading and resistance terms using Monte&ndash / Carlo simulation technique, can be used for the safety analysis of gravity dams. A case study is conducted to illustrate the use of this program.

O início da construção de estruturas para reserva de água no mundo é conhecido há milhares de anos, e, desde então, as barragens são consideradas alternativas viáveis não apenas para reserva de água para consumo, mas também para as finalidades de geração de energia hidrelétrica, contenção de rejeitos, entre outras. Entretanto, mesmo com os contínuos avanços nas técnicas construtivas e na fiscalização da segurança destas estruturas, a possibilidade de rompimento de barragens é uma realidade constante. Nesta perspectiva, o presente texto objetiva analisar os aspectos hidráulicos de metodologias simplificadas para estimativa de parâmetros de inundação proveniente do rompimento de barragens, a saber, as vazões e respectivas profundidades atingidas no vale a jusante, em um evento de rompimento hipotético. Para tal, analisaram-se os resultados de três metodologias simplificadas existentes, aplicadas em três barragens estudo de caso, com características estruturais e geometria do vale a jusante distintas. Os resultados das metodologias simplificadas foram comparados com os estudos de Dam Break das três barragens estudo de caso, obtidos com o uso do software HEC-RAS unidimensional e cedidos por empreendedores. O presente texto também sugere uma nova equação empírica para previsão da vazão máxima resultante do rompimento de barragens por galgamento, e propõe uma nova metodologia simplificada para análise preliminar de rompimento de barragens, com base nos métodos analisados e nas respectivas conclusões obtidas. Os resultados indicam que o uso de metodologias simplificadas na análise preliminar de rompimento de barragens é uma alternativa viável em vales cuja declividade do talvegue é acentuada e cujas características geométricas são aproximadamente constantes. Identificou-se que pequenas alterações no coeficiente de rugosidade do terreno e na declividade da linha de energia refletiram em diferenças nos resultados de profundidades e larguras máximas de 20%, em média. A proposta de nova equação empírica para previsão de vazão máxima na seção da barragem baseou-se na análise de 39 casos reais envolvendo ruptura de barragens por galgamento e resultou em um coeficiente de determinação (R²) de 0,79. Quando comparada com as principais equações semelhantes indicadas na bibliografia, a equação proposta obteve vazões máximas próximas ou superiores às dos demais pesquisadores analisados sempre que a altura da barragem foi inferior a 30 m. Evidencia-se a importância na estimativa cautelosa da vazão máxima na seção da barragem, uma vez que essa reflete em diferenças significativas nas vazões e respectivas profundidades alcançadas ao longo do vale a jusante da estrutura. Nos casos analisados, diferentes vazões máximas na seção da barragem refletiram em distinções de até 50%, em média, nas profundidades e larguras máximas a jusante. A nova metodologia proposta para definição de características de inundação provenientes do rompimento de barragens pode contribuir em estudos preliminares para tal, especialmente aos empreendedores que possuem número expressivo de barragens. Nesses casos, a metodologia poderá nortear a prioridade a ser dada em estudos detalhados de Dam Break. / For thousands of years, water reservoir structures have been built worldwide. Since then, dams have been considered viable alternatives not only for reserving water for consumption but also for the purposes of hydroelectric power generation and sediment retention, among others. Despite the continuous advances in the construction techniques and in the safety inspection of these structures, the possibility of breaking of dams remains a constant reality. Hence, this paper aims to analyze the hydraulic aspects of simplified methodologies for estimating flood parameters on dam ruptures, namely, the flows and respective depths reached in the downstream valley in a hypothetical breach event. Results of three existing simplified methodologies were studied applied in three dams with different structural characteristics and downstream valley geometry. The results of simplified methodologies were compared with dam break studies of three study case dams, obtained with one-dimensional HEC-RAS and provided by entrepreneurs. The present paper suggests also a new empirical equation for predicting the maximum flow resulting from the overtopping dam failure and proposes a new simplified methodology for preliminary analysis of dam rupture, based on the analyzed methods and respective obtained conclusions. The results indicate that the use of simplified methodologies in the preliminary dam break analysis is a viable alternative in valleys with high thalweg declivities and close to constant geometric characteristics. It was identified that small changes in the coefficient of rough terrain and in the energy line slope reflected in differences in the results of depths and maximum widths of 20%, on average. The proposed new empirical equation for maximum flow prediction in the dam section was based on the analysis of 39 actual cases involving overtopping dam failure and resulted in a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.79. When compared to similar main equations indicated in the bibliography, the proposed equation obtained maximum flows near or higher than those of other researchers analyzed whenever the height of the dam did not exceed 30 m. The importance of a cautious estimation of the maximum flow rate in the dam section is to be highlighted, since it results in significant variations of flow and respective depths along the valley and downstream of the structure. Different maximum flows were found in the dam section, which reflected in distinctions of up to 50%, in average, in the maximum depths and widths downstream. The new proposed methodology for defining dam break characteristics caused by dam rupture may contribute to preliminary studies, especially to entrepreneurs who own a significant number of dams. In these cases, the methodology may guide the priority to be given in detailed studies of dam break.

O início da construção de estruturas para reserva de água no mundo é conhecido há milhares de anos, e, desde então, as barragens são consideradas alternativas viáveis não apenas para reserva de água para consumo, mas também para as finalidades de geração de energia hidrelétrica, contenção de rejeitos, entre outras. Entretanto, mesmo com os contínuos avanços nas técnicas construtivas e na fiscalização da segurança destas estruturas, a possibilidade de rompimento de barragens é uma realidade constante. Nesta perspectiva, o presente texto objetiva analisar os aspectos hidráulicos de metodologias simplificadas para estimativa de parâmetros de inundação proveniente do rompimento de barragens, a saber, as vazões e respectivas profundidades atingidas no vale a jusante, em um evento de rompimento hipotético. Para tal, analisaram-se os resultados de três metodologias simplificadas existentes, aplicadas em três barragens estudo de caso, com características estruturais e geometria do vale a jusante distintas. Os resultados das metodologias simplificadas foram comparados com os estudos de Dam Break das três barragens estudo de caso, obtidos com o uso do software HEC-RAS unidimensional e cedidos por empreendedores. O presente texto também sugere uma nova equação empírica para previsão da vazão máxima resultante do rompimento de barragens por galgamento, e propõe uma nova metodologia simplificada para análise preliminar de rompimento de barragens, com base nos métodos analisados e nas respectivas conclusões obtidas. Os resultados indicam que o uso de metodologias simplificadas na análise preliminar de rompimento de barragens é uma alternativa viável em vales cuja declividade do talvegue é acentuada e cujas características geométricas são aproximadamente constantes. Identificou-se que pequenas alterações no coeficiente de rugosidade do terreno e na declividade da linha de energia refletiram em diferenças nos resultados de profundidades e larguras máximas de 20%, em média. A proposta de nova equação empírica para previsão de vazão máxima na seção da barragem baseou-se na análise de 39 casos reais envolvendo ruptura de barragens por galgamento e resultou em um coeficiente de determinação (R²) de 0,79. Quando comparada com as principais equações semelhantes indicadas na bibliografia, a equação proposta obteve vazões máximas próximas ou superiores às dos demais pesquisadores analisados sempre que a altura da barragem foi inferior a 30 m. Evidencia-se a importância na estimativa cautelosa da vazão máxima na seção da barragem, uma vez que essa reflete em diferenças significativas nas vazões e respectivas profundidades alcançadas ao longo do vale a jusante da estrutura. Nos casos analisados, diferentes vazões máximas na seção da barragem refletiram em distinções de até 50%, em média, nas profundidades e larguras máximas a jusante. A nova metodologia proposta para definição de características de inundação provenientes do rompimento de barragens pode contribuir em estudos preliminares para tal, especialmente aos empreendedores que possuem número expressivo de barragens. Nesses casos, a metodologia poderá nortear a prioridade a ser dada em estudos detalhados de Dam Break. / For thousands of years, water reservoir structures have been built worldwide. Since then, dams have been considered viable alternatives not only for reserving water for consumption but also for the purposes of hydroelectric power generation and sediment retention, among others. Despite the continuous advances in the construction techniques and in the safety inspection of these structures, the possibility of breaking of dams remains a constant reality. Hence, this paper aims to analyze the hydraulic aspects of simplified methodologies for estimating flood parameters on dam ruptures, namely, the flows and respective depths reached in the downstream valley in a hypothetical breach event. Results of three existing simplified methodologies were studied applied in three dams with different structural characteristics and downstream valley geometry. The results of simplified methodologies were compared with dam break studies of three study case dams, obtained with one-dimensional HEC-RAS and provided by entrepreneurs. The present paper suggests also a new empirical equation for predicting the maximum flow resulting from the overtopping dam failure and proposes a new simplified methodology for preliminary analysis of dam rupture, based on the analyzed methods and respective obtained conclusions. The results indicate that the use of simplified methodologies in the preliminary dam break analysis is a viable alternative in valleys with high thalweg declivities and close to constant geometric characteristics. It was identified that small changes in the coefficient of rough terrain and in the energy line slope reflected in differences in the results of depths and maximum widths of 20%, on average. The proposed new empirical equation for maximum flow prediction in the dam section was based on the analysis of 39 actual cases involving overtopping dam failure and resulted in a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.79. When compared to similar main equations indicated in the bibliography, the proposed equation obtained maximum flows near or higher than those of other researchers analyzed whenever the height of the dam did not exceed 30 m. The importance of a cautious estimation of the maximum flow rate in the dam section is to be highlighted, since it results in significant variations of flow and respective depths along the valley and downstream of the structure. Different maximum flows were found in the dam section, which reflected in distinctions of up to 50%, in average, in the maximum depths and widths downstream. The new proposed methodology for defining dam break characteristics caused by dam rupture may contribute to preliminary studies, especially to entrepreneurs who own a significant number of dams. In these cases, the methodology may guide the priority to be given in detailed studies of dam break.

O início da construção de estruturas para reserva de água no mundo é conhecido há milhares de anos, e, desde então, as barragens são consideradas alternativas viáveis não apenas para reserva de água para consumo, mas também para as finalidades de geração de energia hidrelétrica, contenção de rejeitos, entre outras. Entretanto, mesmo com os contínuos avanços nas técnicas construtivas e na fiscalização da segurança destas estruturas, a possibilidade de rompimento de barragens é uma realidade constante. Nesta perspectiva, o presente texto objetiva analisar os aspectos hidráulicos de metodologias simplificadas para estimativa de parâmetros de inundação proveniente do rompimento de barragens, a saber, as vazões e respectivas profundidades atingidas no vale a jusante, em um evento de rompimento hipotético. Para tal, analisaram-se os resultados de três metodologias simplificadas existentes, aplicadas em três barragens estudo de caso, com características estruturais e geometria do vale a jusante distintas. Os resultados das metodologias simplificadas foram comparados com os estudos de Dam Break das três barragens estudo de caso, obtidos com o uso do software HEC-RAS unidimensional e cedidos por empreendedores. O presente texto também sugere uma nova equação empírica para previsão da vazão máxima resultante do rompimento de barragens por galgamento, e propõe uma nova metodologia simplificada para análise preliminar de rompimento de barragens, com base nos métodos analisados e nas respectivas conclusões obtidas. Os resultados indicam que o uso de metodologias simplificadas na análise preliminar de rompimento de barragens é uma alternativa viável em vales cuja declividade do talvegue é acentuada e cujas características geométricas são aproximadamente constantes. Identificou-se que pequenas alterações no coeficiente de rugosidade do terreno e na declividade da linha de energia refletiram em diferenças nos resultados de profundidades e larguras máximas de 20%, em média. A proposta de nova equação empírica para previsão de vazão máxima na seção da barragem baseou-se na análise de 39 casos reais envolvendo ruptura de barragens por galgamento e resultou em um coeficiente de determinação (R²) de 0,79. Quando comparada com as principais equações semelhantes indicadas na bibliografia, a equação proposta obteve vazões máximas próximas ou superiores às dos demais pesquisadores analisados sempre que a altura da barragem foi inferior a 30 m. Evidencia-se a importância na estimativa cautelosa da vazão máxima na seção da barragem, uma vez que essa reflete em diferenças significativas nas vazões e respectivas profundidades alcançadas ao longo do vale a jusante da estrutura. Nos casos analisados, diferentes vazões máximas na seção da barragem refletiram em distinções de até 50%, em média, nas profundidades e larguras máximas a jusante. A nova metodologia proposta para definição de características de inundação provenientes do rompimento de barragens pode contribuir em estudos preliminares para tal, especialmente aos empreendedores que possuem número expressivo de barragens. Nesses casos, a metodologia poderá nortear a prioridade a ser dada em estudos detalhados de Dam Break. / For thousands of years, water reservoir structures have been built worldwide. Since then, dams have been considered viable alternatives not only for reserving water for consumption but also for the purposes of hydroelectric power generation and sediment retention, among others. Despite the continuous advances in the construction techniques and in the safety inspection of these structures, the possibility of breaking of dams remains a constant reality. Hence, this paper aims to analyze the hydraulic aspects of simplified methodologies for estimating flood parameters on dam ruptures, namely, the flows and respective depths reached in the downstream valley in a hypothetical breach event. Results of three existing simplified methodologies were studied applied in three dams with different structural characteristics and downstream valley geometry. The results of simplified methodologies were compared with dam break studies of three study case dams, obtained with one-dimensional HEC-RAS and provided by entrepreneurs. The present paper suggests also a new empirical equation for predicting the maximum flow resulting from the overtopping dam failure and proposes a new simplified methodology for preliminary analysis of dam rupture, based on the analyzed methods and respective obtained conclusions. The results indicate that the use of simplified methodologies in the preliminary dam break analysis is a viable alternative in valleys with high thalweg declivities and close to constant geometric characteristics. It was identified that small changes in the coefficient of rough terrain and in the energy line slope reflected in differences in the results of depths and maximum widths of 20%, on average. The proposed new empirical equation for maximum flow prediction in the dam section was based on the analysis of 39 actual cases involving overtopping dam failure and resulted in a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.79. When compared to similar main equations indicated in the bibliography, the proposed equation obtained maximum flows near or higher than those of other researchers analyzed whenever the height of the dam did not exceed 30 m. The importance of a cautious estimation of the maximum flow rate in the dam section is to be highlighted, since it results in significant variations of flow and respective depths along the valley and downstream of the structure. Different maximum flows were found in the dam section, which reflected in distinctions of up to 50%, in average, in the maximum depths and widths downstream. The new proposed methodology for defining dam break characteristics caused by dam rupture may contribute to preliminary studies, especially to entrepreneurs who own a significant number of dams. In these cases, the methodology may guide the priority to be given in detailed studies of dam break.

The Diploma thesis deals with the assessment of global and local stability of the masonry gravity dam Pastviny, for two load conditions. The first part consists of a present state review describing selected masonry dams in the Czech Republic and abroad. Further on a conceptual and mathematical formulation of the seepage flow and strain-stress problem are stated. The case study is focused on the practical application of formulated problems on the Pastviny dam. Firstly the available data have been assembled and processed. Global and local safety of the dam was assessed for the selected most vulnerable profile of the dam body. In the final chapters 5, 6 and 7, the seepage flow, stress and strain have been calculated and graphically displayed. Finally global and local stability have been assessed and completed with final summary of the results and concluding remarks.

Evaluating the safety of unreinforced concrete structures, such as concrete dams, requires an accurate prediction of cracking. Developing a suitable constitutive material model and a reliable computational procedure for analysing cracking processes in concrete has been a challenging and demanding task. Although many analytical methods based on fracture mechanics have been proposed for concrete dams in the last few decades, they have not yet become part of standard design procedures. Few of the current research findings are being implemented by practising engineers when evaluating dam safety. This research is focused on the development of a suitable crack modelling and analysis method for the prediction and study of fracturing in concrete gravity dams, and consequently, for the evaluation of dam safety against cracking. The research aims to contribute to the continuing research efforts into mastering the mechanics of cracking in concrete dams. An analytical method for the purpose of establishing a crack constitutive model and implementing the model for the fracture analysis of concrete structures, in particular massive concrete gravity dams under static loading conditions, has been developed, verified and applied in the safety evaluation of a concrete gravity dam. The constitutive material model is based on non-linear fracture mechanics and assumes a bilinear softening response. The crack model has various improved features: (1) an enhanced mode I bilinear strain-softening approach has been put forward; (2) a new formula for bilinear softening parameters has been developed and their relation with linear softening has been outlined; (3) the influence of bilinear softening parameters on the cracking response has been studied; and (4) an enhanced modification to the shear retention factor which depends on the crack normal strain is included. The material model has been incorporated into a finite element analysis using a smeared crack approach. A sub-program was specially coded for this research. The validity of the proposed cracking model and the computational procedure developed for the purpose of analyzing the tensile fracture behaviour of concrete structures has been confirmed by verification on various concrete structures, including beams, a dam model and actual gravity dams. The crack modelling technique developed was successfully used in evaluating the safety of an existing concrete gravity dam in South Africa and adequately predicted the cracking response of the dam structure under static loadings. The main conclusions drawn are as follows: <ul><li>Both mode I and mode II fracture have been modelled successfully.</li> <li>The proposed bilinear softening model remains relatively simple to implement but significantly improves on predicting the softening response of “small-scale” concrete structures.</li> <li>Both plane stress and plane strain crack analyses have been considered and can be confidently adopted in two-dimensional applications.</li> <li>The proposed method is mesh objective.</li> <li>The crack modelling method developed can correctly predict the crack propagation trajectory and the structural behaviour with regard to fracturing in concrete structures.</li> <li>If not considering shear stress concentration near the tip of a crack, constitutive crack analysis normally indicates a higher safety factor and a higher Imminent Failure Flood (IFF) than the classical methods in the analysis of concrete gravity dams for safety evaluation.</li></ul> / Thesis (PhD(Civil Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Civil Engineering / PhD / unrestricted

I Sverige finns det idag ett stort antal dammar och nära hälften av Sveriges elproduktion kommer ifrån vattenkraft. Höga säkerhetskrav ställs på dammarna då konsekvenserna av ett dammbrott kan orsaka stor ekonomisk skada både i form av minskad produktion och som uppbyggnadskostnader. Dammbrott kan även utgöra risk för skador på människor och omkringliggande miljö samt byggnader. Det finns flera dimensioneringsmetoder för att uppfylla gällande säkerhetskrav på konstruktioner. De tillämpningsvägledningar som används vid stabilitetsanalys av betongdammar baseras på gamla deterministiska metoder med säkerhetsfaktorer. Det arbetas med att ta fram nya tillämpningsvägledningar baserat på sannolikhetsbaserade metoder. De sannolikhetsbaserade metoderna tar hänsyn till osäkerheterna i enskilda variabler, vilket förväntas ge effektivare konstruktioner. Stabilitetsanalys med sannolikhetsbaserade metoder i varje enskilt fall är förmodligen det bästa ur säkerhetssynpunkt, men det kan vara väldigt tidskrävande. Ett sett att underlätta stabilitetsberäkningarna, i vanligt förekommande konstruktioner, är användandet av partialkoefficienter. Partialkoefficienter är en semi-probabilistisk metod som kan kalibreras med hjälp av tillförlitlighetsanalysen och appliceras på systemets olika variabler och parametrar. På så vis beaktas osäkerheten i enskilda variabler och parametrar bättre än i deterministiska metoder med säkerhetsfaktorer. Målet med det här examensarbetet var att undersöka om stabilitetsanalys av betongdammar med partialkoefficienter kan vara ett alternativ till de metoder som redan finns. Rapporten kan delas in i tre delar. Den första delen av rapporten beskriver teorin bakom kalibrering av partialkoefficienter med hjälp av tillförlitlighetsteori, FORM. I den andra delen beskrivs metoder och tillämpningsvägledning för stabilitetsanalys av betongdammar med probabilistiska metoder. I den tredje delen används kunskaperna från de två första delarna för att beräkna tillförlitligheten på 15 utav Sveriges dammar. Beräkningarna används sedan för att kalibrera partialkoefficienter. En del kraftiga avgränsningar har gjorts i arbetet, bland annat har beräkningarna utförts för ett statiskt lastfall och bara fokuserat på stabilitetsvillkoret för glidning. Resultatet visar att det inte är rekommenderat att använda sig av partialkoefficienter vid stabilitetsanalys, åtminstone inte med den information och kunskap som idag finns tillgänglig. Osäkerheterna kring vissa modeller och variabler behöver minskas för att partialkoefficienter skall vara ett alternativ. Teorin kring partialkoefficienter kräver även en viss likhet i konstruktioner och konstruktionselement. De dammar som användes i denna studie kan ha varit för olika för att erhålla tillfredsställande resultat med avseende på likartade partialkoefficienter. / In Sweden today there are a large number of dams and nearly half of Sweden's electricity is produced from hydropower. The safety requirements on the dams are high due to the consequences that a dam failure can cause. There are several design methods to achieve the expected safety requirements. The design guidelines used in the stability analysis of concrete dams in Sweden is based on the deterministic methods with safety factors. However, a new proposition for design guidelines based on probabilistic methods is being developed. Compared to the deterministic approach the probabilistic method takes into account the uncertainties in individual variables, which are expected to provide more efficient structures. One problem with stability analysis using probabilistic methods is that it can be very time consuming. Another method which combines the simplicity of the deterministic approach with the effectiveness of the probabilistic method is the use of partial factors. The use of partial factors is a semi-probabilistic method that can be calibrated from the reliability analysis in the probabilistic method and applied to the individual variables and parameters in the system similar to the safety factor. The aim of this thesis was to investigate if stability analysis of concrete dams with partial factors can be an alternative to the methods already available. The report can be divided into three parts. The first part of the report describes the theory behind the calibration process of partial factors using the first order reliability method, FORM. The second part describes existing Swedish methods and application guidelines for stability analysis of concrete dams. The knowledge from the first two parts is then used in order to calculate the reliability of 15 of Sweden's dams. It should be observed that the work contains some limitations, for instance only the sliding stability is studied using one static load case. The results from the calculation of this load case are then used to calibrate the partial factors. The result shows that it is not recommended to use the partial factors for stability analysis of concrete dams, at least not with the information and knowledge available today in the field. The uncertainties surrounding certain models and variables need to be reduced in order for partial factors to be an option. The theory behind partial factors requires a certain degree of uniformness when it comes to the structure or elements used. The difference among the dams analyzed in this study may have impacted the results negatively.

Dams are designed and assessed based on traditional factor of safety methodology. Several drawbacks of this approach exist; for example varying failure probability for structures where the factor of safety is the same. This traditional factor of safety methodology imposes conservative assumptions in terms of both design and analysis. A probability-based analysis has been suggested to account for the omission of uncertainties and provide a less conservative analysis (Westberg &amp; Johansson, 2014). Through the stability analyses of three existing dam structures, a minimum level of reliability or maximum failure probability may be calculated with the ultimate goal of defining a target safety index (β-target) for buttress and gravity dams. These analyses shall in turn contribute to the formulation of a probability-based guideline for the design and assessment of Swedish concrete dams. This probability-based guideline shall be known as the ‘Probabilistic Model Code for Concrete Dams.’ The calculations carried out in this study adhere to the methodologies and specifications set out in the preliminary draft of the Probabilistic Model Code for Concrete Dams. These methodologies encompass analyses within two dominating failure modes for concrete dams; sliding stability and overturning stability. Various load combinations have been modelled for each dam structure to account for the probabilistic failure of each dam under commonly occurring circumstances. A parametric study has been carried out in order to provide insight into the contribution that existing rock bolts provide to the stability of each dam. Furthermore, a study has been carried out into the existence of a persistent rock joint or failure plane in the rock foundation and the effects its presence would have on the sliding stability of a dam. Finally a discussion had been carried out in order to provide suggestions into the formulation of a target safety index through the data envisaged by our analyses for the design and assessment of Swedish concrete dams.