Studying recurrent mobility perturbations, such as traffic congestions, is a major concern of engineers, planners, and authorities as they not only bring about delay and inconvenience but also have consequent negative impacts like greenhouse gas emission, increase in fuel consumption, or safety issues. In this dissertation, we proposed using the resilience concept, which has been commonly used for assessing the impact of extreme events and disturbances on the transportation system, for high-probability low impact (HPLI) events to (a) provide a performance assessment framework for transportation systems' response to traffic congestions, (b) investigate the role of transit modes in the resilience of urban roadways to congestion, and (c) study the impact of network topology on the resilience of roadways functionality performance. We proposed a multi-dimensional approach to characterize the resilience of urban transportation roadways for recurrent congestions. The resilience concept could provide an effective benchmark for comparative performance and identifying the behavior of the system in the discharging process in congestion. To this end, we used a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach to integrate multiple resilience-oriented attributes to estimate the efficiency (resilience) of the frontier in roadways. Our results from an empirical study on California highways through the PeMS data have shown the potential of the multi-dimensional approach in increasing information gain and differentiating between the severity of congestion across a transportation network. Leveraging this resilience-based characterization of recurrent disruptions, in the second study, we investigated the role of multi-modal resourcefulness of urban transportation systems, in terms of diversity and equity, on the resilience of roadways to daily-based congestions. We looked at the physical infrastructure availability and distribution (i.e. diversity) and accessibility and coverage to capture socio-economic factors (i.e. equity) to more comprehensively understand the role of resourcefulness in resilience. We conducted this investigation by using a GPS dataset of taxi trips in the Washington DC metropolitan area in 2017. Our results demonstrated the strong correlation of trips' resilience with transportation equity and to a lesser extent with transportation diversity. Furthermore, we learned the impact of equity and diversity can mostly be seen at the recovery stage of resilience. In the third study, we looked at another aspect of transportation supply in urban areas, spatial configuration, and topology. The goal of this study was to investigate the role of network topology and configuration on resilience to congestion. We used OSMnx, a toolkit for street network analysis based on the data from OpenStreetMap, to model and analyze the urban roadways network configurations. We further employed a multidimensional visualization strategy using radar charts to compare the topology of street networks on a single graphic. Leveraging the geometric descriptors of radar charts, we used the compactness and Jaccard Index to quantitatively compare the topology profiles. We use the same taxi trips dataset used in the second study to characterize resilience and identify the correlation with network topology. The results indicated a strong correlation between resilience and betweenness centrality, diameter, and Page Rank among other features of a transportation network. We further looked at the capacity of roadways as a common cause for the strong correlation between network features and resilience. We found that the strong correlation of link-related features such as diameter could be due to their role in capacity and have a common cause with resilience. / Doctor of Philosophy / Transportation infrastructure systems are among the most fundamental facilities and systems in urban areas due to the role they play in mobility, economy, and environmental sustainability. Due to this importance, it is crucial to ensure their resilience to regular disruptions such as traffic congestions as a priority for engineers and policymakers. The resilience of transportation systems has often been studied when disasters or extreme events occur. However, minor disturbances such as everyday operational traffic situations can also play an important part in reducing the efficiency of transportation systems and should be considered in the overall resilience of the systems. Current literature does not consider traffic performance from the lens of resilience despite its importance in evaluating the overall performance of roads. This research addresses this gap by proposing to leverage the concept of resilience for evaluation of roadways performance and identifying the role of urban characteristics in the enhancement of resilience. We first characterized resilience considering the performance of the roadways over time, ranging from the occurrence of disruptions to the time point when the system performance returns to a stable state. Through a case study on some of the major highways in the Los Angeles metropolitan area and by leveraging the data from the Performance Measurement System (PeMS), we have investigated how accounting for a proposed multi-dimensional approach for quantification of resilience could add value to the process of road network performance assessment and the corresponding decision-making. In the second and third parts of this dissertation, we looked at the urban infrastructure elements and how they affect resilience to regular disruptive congestion events. Specifically, in the second study, we focused on alternative transit modes such as bus, metro, or bike presence in the urban areas. We utilized diversity and equity concepts for assessing the opportunities they provide for people as alternative mobility modes. The proposed metrics not only capture the physical attributes of the multi-modal transportation systems (i.e. availability and distribution of transit modes in urban areas) but also consider the socio-economic factors (i.e. the number of people that could potentially use the transit mode). In the third study, we investigated how urban road networks' form and topology (i.e., the structure of roadway networks) could affect its resilience to recurrent congestions. We presented our findings as a case study in the Washington DC area. Results indicated a strong correlation between resilience and resourcefulness as well as topology features. The findings allow decision-makers to make more informed design and operational decisions and better incorporate the urban characteristics during the priority setting process.

The issues of performance measurement and efficiency analyses for transit industries have been gaining significance due to severe operating conditions and financial constraints in which these transit agencies provide service. In this research, we present an approach to measure the performance of Urban Transit Networks, specifically, bus routes that comprise the network. We propose a math programming model that evaluates the efficiencies of bus routes taking into consideration, the service providers, the users and the societal perspectives. This model is based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology and derives from Network Theory, Network Modeling in DEA, Goal Programming & Goal-DEA and 'Environmental' Variables. This approach enables the decision maker to determine the performance of its units of operations ('bus routes' in our case), optimally allocate scarce resources and achieve target levels for 'externality' variables for these bus routes and for the whole network. We further recommend modifications to the model, for adaptation to other modes of transportation as well as extend its applicability to other applications/scenarios. / Master of Science

Evaluation of critical transportation infrastructure and their operation is vital for continuous evolution to meet the growing needs of the society with time. The current practice of evaluating signalized intersections has two steps. The first is to determine the level of service at which the intersection is performing. Level of Service (LOS) is based on the average delay per vehicle that gets past the particular intersection under consideration. The second step is to do a capacity analysis. This considers the number of lanes and other infrastructure related factors and also includes the influence of the control strategies. The above-described procedure evaluates any one intersection at a time. It is necessary to compare and rank a given set of intersections for planning purposes such as choosing the sites for improvements. The research work presented in this thesis demonstrates how Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) can be used as a tool to achieve the purpose of comparing and ranking a given set of comparable intersections. This study elaborates on various ways of representing different characteristics of an intersection. The demonstration has been restricted to four way signalized intersections. The intersections that were used for demonstration as part of this research were created in a controlled random fashion by simulation. / Master of Science

Yes / Prediction of corporate failure is one of the major activities in auditing firms risks and uncertainties. The design of reliable models to predict bankruptcy is crucial for many decision making processes. Although a large number of models have been designed to predict bankruptcy, the relative performance evaluation of competing prediction models remains an exercise that is unidimensional in nature, which often leads to reporting conflicting results. In this research, we overcome this methodological issue by proposing an orientation-free super-efficiency data envelopment analysis model as a multi-criteria assessment framework. Furthermore, we perform an exhaustive comparative analysis of the most popular bankruptcy modeling frameworks for UK data including our own models. In addition, we address two important research questions; namely, do some modeling frameworks perform better than others by design? and to what extent the choice and/or the design of explanatory variables and their nature affect the performance of modeling frameworks?, and report on our findings.

Yes / Although many modelling and prediction frameworks for corporate bankruptcy and distress have been proposed, the relative performance evaluation of prediction models is criticised due to the assessment exercise using a single measure of one criterion at a time, which leads to reporting conflicting results. Mousavi et al. (Int Rev Financ Anal 42:64–75, 2015) proposed an orientation-free super-efficiency DEA-based framework to overcome this methodological issue. However, within a super-efficiency DEA framework, the reference benchmark changes from one prediction model evaluation to another, which in some contexts might be viewed as “unfair” benchmarking. In this paper, we overcome this issue by proposing a slacks-based context-dependent DEA (SBM-CDEA) framework to evaluate competing distress prediction models. In addition, we propose a hybrid crossbenchmarking- cross-efficiency framework as an alternative methodology for ranking DMUs that are heterogeneous. Furthermore, using data on UK firms listed on London Stock Exchange, we perform a comprehensive comparative analysis of the most popular corporate distress prediction models; namely, statistical models, under both mono criterion and multiple criteria frameworks considering several performance measures. Also, we propose new statistical models using macroeconomic indicators as drivers of distress.

Yes / On feature selection, as one of the critical steps to develop a distress prediction model (DPM), a variety of expert systems and machine learning approaches have analytically supported developers. Data envel- opment analysis (DEA) has provided this support by estimating the novel feature of managerial efficiency, which has frequently been used in recent two-stage DPMs. As key contributions, this study extends the application of expert system in credit scoring and distress prediction through applying diverse DEA mod- els to compute corporate market efficiency in addition to the prevailing managerial efficiency, and to estimate the decomposed measure of mix efficiency and investigate its contribution compared to Pure Technical Efficiency and Scale Efficiency in the performance of DPMs. Further, this paper provides a com- prehensive comparison between two-stage DPMs through estimating a variety of DEA efficiency measures in the first stage and employing static and dynamic classifiers in the second stage. Based on experimen- tal results, guidelines are provided to help practitioners develop two-stage DPMs; to be more specific, guidelines are provided to assist with the choice of the proper DEA models to use in the first stage, and the choice of the best corporate efficiency measures and classifiers to use in the second stage.

Yes / Electronic government services (e-services) involve the delivery of information and services to stakeholders via the Internet, Internet of Things and other traditional modes. Despite their beneficial values, the overall level of usage (take-up) remains relatively low compared to traditional modes. They are also challenging to evaluate due to behavioral, economical, political, and technical aspects. The literature lacks a methodology framework to guide the government transformation application to improve both internal processes of e-services and institutional transformation to advance relationships with stakeholders. This paper proposes a cognitive analytics management (CAM) framework to implement such transformations. The ambition is to increase users’ take-up rate and satisfaction, and create sustainable shared values through provision of improved e-services. The CAM framework uses cognition to understand and frame the transformation challenge into analytics terms. Analytics insights for improvements are generated using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A classification and regression tree is then applied to DEA results to identify characteristics of satisfaction to advance relationships. The importance of senior management is highlighted for setting strategic goals and providing various executive supports. The CAM application for the transforming Turkish e-services is validated on a large sample data using online survey. The results are discussed; the outcomes and impacts are reported in terms of estimated savings of more than fifteen billion dollars over a ten-year period and increased usage of improved new e-services. We conclude with future research.

Yes / Over the past few decades, the banking sectors in Latin America have undergone rapid structural changes to improve the efficiency and resilience of their financial systems. The up-to-date literature shows that all the research studies conducted to analyze the above-mentioned efficiency are based on a deterministic data envelopment analysis (DEA) model or econometric frontier approach. Nevertheless, the deterministic DEA model suffers from a possible lack of statistical power, especially in a small sample. As such, the current research paper develops the technique of satisficing DEA to examine the still less explored case of Peru. We propose a Satisficing DEA model applied to 14 banks operating in Peru to evaluate the bank-level efficiency under a stochastic environment, which is free from any theoretical distributional assumption. The proposed model does not only report the bank efficiency, but also proposes a new framework for peer mining based on the Bayesian analysis and potential improvements with the bias-corrected and accelerated confidence interval. Our study is the first of its kind in the literature to perform a peer analysis based on a probabilistic approach.

No / The quest for best practices may lead to an increased risk of poor decision-making, especially when aiming to attain best practice levels reveals that efforts are beyond the organization’s present capabilities. This situation is commonly known as the “best practice trap”. Motivated by such observation, the purpose of the present paper is to develop a practical methodology to support better practice benchmarking, with an application to the banking sector. In this sense, we develop a two-stage hybrid model that employs Artificial Neural Network (ANN) via integration with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is used as a preprocessor, to investigate the ability of the DEA-ANN approach to classify the sampled branches of a Greek bank into predefined efficiency classes. ANN is integrated with a family of radial and non-radial DEA models. This combined approach effectively captures the information contained in the characteristics of the sampled branches, and subsequently demonstrates a satisfactory classification ability especially for the efficient branches. Our prediction results are presented using four performance measures (hit rates): percent success rate of classifying a bank branch’s performance exactly or within one class of its actual performance, as well as just one class above the actual class and just one class below the actual class. The proposed modeling approach integrates the DEA context with ANN and advances benchmarking practices to enhance the decision-making process for efficiency improvement.

Yes / The current study contributes to the literature in efficiency analysis in two ways: 1) we build on the existing studies in Dynamic Network Data Envelopment Analysis (DNDEA) by proposing a sequential structure incorporating dual-role characteristics of the production factors; 2) we initiate the efforts to complement the proposal of our innovative sequential DNDEA through a behavioural-causal analysis. The proposal of this statistical analysis is very important considering it does not only validate the proposal of the efficiency analysis but also our practice can be generalized to the future studies dealing with designing innovative production process. Finally, we apply these two different analyses to the banking industry. Using a sample of 43 Chinese commercial banks including five different ownership types (state-owned, joint-stock, city, rural, and foreign banks) between 2010 and 2018, we find that the inefficiency level is around 0.14, although slight volatility has been observed. We find that the highest efficiency is dominated by state-owned banks, and although foreign banks are less efficient than joint-stock banks, they are more efficient than city banks. Finally, we find that rural banks have the highest inefficiency.