A hipótese básica do presente trabalho é que embora a ocorrência de uma determinada doença possa apresentar impactos econômicos expressivos para a pecuária de um país - onerando não apenas a atividade produtiva - alguns produtores não reconhecem, individualmente, a importância devida em adotar medidas preventivas, uma vez que a ocorrência da doença não é frequente. Ademais, a existência de externalidades faz com que a ação de um produtor em relação às medidas sanitárias de seu rebanho afete os demais produtores da mesma região, o que também pode não ser percebido por eles. Diante disso, o presente trabalho desenvolve um procedimento teórico para a análise de decisões estratégicas dos produtores quanto à prevenção contra doenças em animais, face ao risco de contaminação de seu rebanho. O desenvolvimento do modelo é baseado nos preceitos da Teoria dos Jogos, e na análise econômica de benefício/custo como suporte da tomada de decisão do produtor. Depois de modelado o problema e determinados os possíveis equilíbrios do jogo, infere-se sobre as possíveis atuações do governo, no uso de incentivos econômicos (como indenizações e multas) para que o equilíbrio seja o da prevenção. Em seguida, o modelo teórico é aplicado a um caso específico de surto de febre aftosa no Brasil. Os resultados mostram que quando não se tem um mercado diferenciado para animal não vacinado, o equilíbrio do jogo tende para a situação onde os produtores decidem vacinar seu rebanho, sugerindo que não existe a necessidade de intervenção do governo para estimular a prevenção. Na prática, no entanto, o governo brasileiro estabelece políticas de incentivo, visto que alguns produtores não vacinam seu rebanho mesmo conhecendo os riscos, o que se traduz na falta de racionalidade dos mesmos. Considerando essa irracionalidade por parte de alguns produtores, o presente estudo é importante para que estes possam delinear panoramas de decisão, de forma a identificar as melhores ações a serem tomadas de forma coletiva. / The basic hypothesis of this study is that producers do not perceive, individually, the importance of adopting prevention measures, even when aware of the economic risks for them and for the local economy, because the outbreaks of some diseases are not frequent. Moreover, the presence of externalities is such that the action of one producer regarding sanitary measures of the herd affects other producers in the same region, which also cannot be perceived by them. This study aims to develop a theoretical procedure to infer about strategic decisions taken by producers to prevent animal disease in their herds, in face of the risk of contamination. The development of the model is based on the Game Theory, and the benefit cost analysis as support for producer\'s decision. After modeling the problem and determining the equilibriums, these are used to elaborate inferences about possible actions of the government through economic incentives (such as indemnities and fines) to encourage the prevention. Then, the theoretical model is applied to a specific case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Brazil. The results indicate that in the absence of a differential market for non-vaccinated animals, the game equilibrium tends to the situation where producer\'s decisions are to vaccinate their herd, suggesting that government intervention is not necessary. Even though, the Brazilian government uses incentive policies for the cattle vaccination since some producers do not vaccinate their animals, despite of their awareness of the risks, which suggests lack of rationality. Considering the irrationality of some producers, this study is important for them to delineate decisions scenes, identifying the best actions to be taken in the collective context.

This thesis provides an analysis of the Georgia statewide regional water planning process; a system deemed to be operating in the adaptive management framework. The principal focus of this analysis is to detail a novel paradigm capable of dynamic response to changing resource demands which stems from adaptive management principles and ensures representativeness. The paradigm extends directly from application of the theories of bounded rationality and adaptive management. Development of the framework is accomplished through application of theory and correlated empirical analysis. Extreme drought conditions signal a punctuated-equilibrium effecting statewide water resource management which in turn drives the issuance of an executive-level directive to prioritize and effectively manage critical state water resources. This study evolves directly from analysis of the current effort to establish unified regional water plans which address rapid population growth, and escalating water resource conflicts with Alabama and Florida while satisfying priorities established within the executive directive. Fundamental to this analysis is the survey of currently seated regional water planning council members. The essential function of the survey is to provide a qualitative assessment of the perceptions of appointed council members. These perceptions influence water management techniques prescribed by the final policy. While this is a fuzzy correlation, a primary function of this analysis is to quantify the strength of correlation between perceptions and developed policy. This survey details appointed council member attitudes and attributes and affords analysis of future decision making outcomes. The method prescribed herein unifies multi-level decision making processes under a dynamic adaptive management paradigm, and is intended to link the regional water planning processes with continuous annual assessment in order to achieve the pluralistic benefits of adaptive management decision making.

The study is an investigation into the pathways of out-of-school youth and their re-entrance into the Education Training and Development (ETD) system or the labour market. In the study the pathways of youth who dropped out of school between grades 1 and 11 are traced as they seek re-entrance to the ETD system, or entrance into the labour market. Particular attention was given to the factors that determine the choices that dropouts make either in re-entering the ETD system or entering the labour market. An analysis of the experiences of the interviewed sample of dropouts is presented. The study employs a qualitative research methodology using interviews to elicit the experiences of dropouts and school managers. The participants (young people and three school principals) were selected through snowballing from a township south of Durban. Individual and focus group interviews were held. The findings provide evidence of the value of investing in education, as suggested by the youth. This is in line with the human capital theory framework that suggests that there are major benefits to investing in education. The study is concluded by suggesting the need for second chance education in South Africa. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Education Management and Policy Studies / unrestricted

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