Transportation planners are often faced with the problem of estimating passenger and freight flows between regions. In the literature there are many models for passenger flows. However, models about freight flows are more limited. Modeling freight flow is also more complex than modeling passenger flow and there are many agents related with freight flows. In addition, data availability is a critical factor. In this research, freight flows between provinces in T&uuml / rkiye are forecasted by demand analysis. Transportation is one of the important activities of human beings and plays an important role for spatial interactions in economic growth. In other words, there is a very strong linkage between economic growth and the freight flow, thus transportation demand. Regional trade as spatial flow appears on transportation systems as freight flows. In this study, using the existing limited data and surveys in T&uuml / rkiye, nationwide origin-destination (O-D) matrix of freight flows between provinces is obtained. Using this empirical matrix, the generation of freight flows of provinces is formulated depending on the socioeconomic and demographic variables by means of multiple linear regression analysis. In addition, interactions of freight flows between provinces and economic growth of regions are investigated. The generations and attractions of provinces as freight flow are distributed between provinces with traditional gravity model. By comparing observed O-D matrix and simulated O-D matrix, gravity model is calibrated. Calibration is also performed by freight trip length distribution. In this research, two steps of traditional &ldquo / four-step analysis&rdquo / , &ldquo / trip generation&rdquo / and &ldquo / trip distribution&rdquo / , are applied to develop nationwide freight demand model between the provinces in T&uuml / rkiye. The developed model is single-mode, single commodity and nationwide.

TBEST is a comprehensive third generation transit demand forecasting model, developed by the FDOT Public Transit Office (PTO) to help transit agencies in completing their Transit Development Plans (TDPs). The on-going project funded by FDOT, related to TBEST, aims at further enhancing the capabilities of the TBEST model based on additional opportunities identified by the research team. The project focuses on enhancing TBEST’s capabilities in following areas: 1) Improving the precision of socio- demographic data by using property appraisal data (parcel data) and, 2) Improving the quality of data regarding trip attraction. Based on the improvement areas, this study aims at performing an exploratory analysis to 1) Identify the differences in activity levels (population and employment) within transit stop buffers due to change in input data i.e. from aggregate census data to disaggregate parcel data. 2) Explore various strategies (development of employment based trip attraction and, parcel land use based trip attraction and exploring how special generators are dealt with in the past studies) to enhance the trip attraction capability of the TBEST model. The results obtained from this analysis provide insights on the strategies and helps define suggestions to further enhance the precision of TBEST model. The results show that use of parcel level data improves the accuracy in capturing the activity levels within the catchment area of each stop. The results also suggest use of parcel land use based trip attraction for stops with special generators or use of interaction variable (interaction between special generator dummy and size (square footage etc.) of the special generator) to enhance the trip attraction capability of the TBEST model.

abstract: This dissertation research contributes to the advancement of activity-based travel forecasting models along two lines of inquiry. First, the dissertation aims to introduce a continuous-time representation of activity participation in tour-based model systems in practice. Activity-based travel demand forecasting model systems in practice today are largely tour-based model systems that simulate individual daily activity-travel patterns through the prediction of day-level and tour-level activity agendas. These tour level activity-based models adopt a discrete time representation of activities and sequence the activities within tours using rule-based heuristics. An alternate stream of activity-based model systems mostly confined to the research arena are activity scheduling systems that adopt an evolutionary continuous-time approach to model activity participation subject to time-space prism constraints. In this research, a tour characterization framework capable of simulating and sequencing activities in tours along the continuous time dimension is developed and implemented using readily available travel survey data. The proposed framework includes components for modeling the multitude of secondary activities (stops) undertaken as part of the tour, the time allocated to various activities in a tour, and the sequence in which the activities are pursued. Second, the dissertation focuses on the implementation of a vehicle fleet composition model component that can be used not only to simulate the mix of vehicle types owned by households but also to identify the specific vehicle that will be used for a specific tour. Virtually all of the activity-based models in practice only model the choice of mode without due consideration of the type of vehicle used on a tour. In this research effort, a comprehensive vehicle fleet composition model system is developed and implemented. In addition, a primary driver allocation model and a tour-level vehicle type choice model are developed and estimated with a view to advancing the ability to track household vehicle usage through the course of a day within activity-based travel model systems. It is envisioned that these advances will enhance the fidelity of activity-based travel model systems in practice. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Civil and Environmental Engineering 2014

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are computer equipped vehicles that can operate without human driver’s active control using information provided by their sensors about the surrounding environment. Self-driving vehicles may have seemed to be a distant dream several years ago, but manufactures’ prototypes showed that AVs are becoming real now. Several car manufactures (i.e. Benz, Audi, etc.) and information technology firms (i.e. Google) have either showcased their fully AVs or announced their robot cars to be released in a few years. AVs hold the promise to transform the ways we live and travel. Although several studies have been conducted on the impacts of AVs, much remains to be explored regarding the various ways in which AVs could reshape our lifestyle. This dissertation addresses the knowledge gap in understanding the potential implications of AV technologies on travel behavior and system modeling. A comprehensive review of literature regarding AV adoption, potential impacts and system modeling was provided. Bass diffusion models were developed to investigate the market penetration process of AVs based on experience learned from past technologies. A stated preference survey was conducted to gather information from university population on the perceptions and attitudes toward AV technologies. The data collected from the Florida International University (FIU) was used to develop econometric models exploring the willingness to pay and relocation choices of travelers in light of the new technologies. In addition, the latest version of the Southeast Planning Regional Model (SERPM) 7.0, an Activity-Based Model (ABM), was employed to examine the potential impacts of AVs on the transportation network. Three scenarios were developed for short-term (2035), mid-term (2045) and long-term (2055) conditions. This dissertation provides a systematic approach to understand the potential implications of AV technologies on travel behavior and system modeling. The results of the survey data analysis and the scenario analysis also provide important inputs to guide planning and policy analysis on the impacts of AV technologies.

As transportation policies are changing to encourage alternative modes of transportation to reduce congestion problems and air quality impacts, more planning organizations are considering or implementing activity-based travel demand models to forecast future travel patterns. The proclivity towards operating activity-based models is the capability to model disaggregate travel data to better understand the model results that are generated with respect to the latest transportation policy implementations. This thesis first examines the differences between the two major modeling techniques used in the United States and then describes the assessment tool that was developed to recommend whether a region should convert to the advanced modeling procedures. This tool consists of parameters that were decided upon based on their known linkages to the advantages of activity-based models.

This thesis deals with stochastic water demand modellling in the water supply network. In the opening section, a research is created, where two different approaches to stochastic modelling of water consumption are presented. The practical part describes the creation of a deterministic hydraulic model and its calibration. Generated stochastic water demand patterns with a small time step of 1 minute, are then inserted into this model. Each household is assigned with a unique water demand pattern. Then a hydraulic analysis was done. A comparison of deterministic and stochastic approaches is presented at the end of the thesis. The comparison shows, that small-time step modelling does not have a big impact on the pressure ratios in the water supply network, but has a huge impact on the maximum flows and speeds occurring in links of the hydraulic model.

Managed lanes are a form of congestion pricing that use occupancy and toll payment requirements to utilize capacity more efficiently. How socio-spatial characteristics impact users’ travel behavior toward managed lanes is the main research question of this study. This research is a case study of the conversion of a High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane to a High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lane, implemented in Atlanta I-85 on 2011. To minimize the cost and maximize the size of the collected data, an innovative and cost-effective modeling framework for socioeconomic analysis of managed lanes has been developed. Instead of surveys, this research is based on the observation of one and a half million license plates, matched to household locations, collected over a two-year study period. Purchased marketing data, which include detailed household socioeconomic characteristics, supplemented the household corridor usage information derived from license plate observations. Generalized linear models have been used to link users’ travel behavior to socioeconomic attributes. Furthermore, GIS raster analysis methods have been utilized to visualize and quantify the impact of the HOV-to-HOT conversion on the corridor commutershed. At the local level, this study conducted a comprehensive socio-spatial analysis of the Atlanta I-85 HOV to HOT conversion. At the general scale, this study enhances managed lanes’ travel demand models with respect to users’ characteristics and introduces a comprehensive modeling framework for the socioeconomic analysis of managed lanes. The methods developed through this research will inform future Traffic and Revenue Studies and help to better predict the socio-spatial characteristics of the target market.

Tato disertační práce se zabývá vývojem, modelováním a analýzou poptávkově orientovaných úloh, které zahrnují marketingová, operační a logistická rozhodnutí. Úlohy jsou zvoleny tak, aby mohly být dále rozšířeny o koncept tzv. dynamického oceňování a jiných dynamických marketingových rozhodnutí. V práci jsou využity dvě základní poptávkově orientované úlohy: a) úloha kolportéra novin, která je zvolena pro její jednoduchou formu a která tak slouží jako nástroj pro ilustrativní ukázky rozhodovacích procesů v podobných typech úloh, a b) úloha návrhu dopravní sítě, kde jsou využity některé výsledky a znalosti získané při řešení úlohy kolportéra novin. Kolportér (či obecně maloobchodník) čelí náhodné poptávce, která může být postupně ovlivněna oceňováním, marketingovými (tj. reklamními) rozhodnutími a nakonec jejich kombinací. Poptávka obsahuje tedy náhodnou složku, která je pomocí přístupů stochastické optimalizace modelována ve specifickém tvaru (tj. aditivní či multiplikativní tvar). Závislost cena-poptávka je zachycena pomocí nelineární klesající poptávkové funkce, zatímco (vhodná) reklama vede ke zvýšení poptávky (běžně rostoucí s-křivka či konkávní funkce). Výsledky získané při řešení úlohy kolportéra novin s oceňováním jsou následně využity v úloze návrhu dopravní sítě. Tato stochastická úloha je modelována (reformulována) pomocí dvou přístupů stochastické optimalizace: wait-and-see přístup a here-and-now přístup. Jelikož tato implementace vede na lineární či nelineární celočíselnou (navíc scénářovou) úlohu, jsou v práci zmíněny taky výpočetní nástroje. Autor pro řešení používá (původní) tzv. hybridní algoritmus, což je kombinace heuristického (genetického) algoritmu a nástroje optimalizačního softwaru. Potenciální aplikace sestavených modelů, obzvláště v oblasti odpadového hospodářství, jsou diskutovány v závěrečné části disertační práce.

The well-to-wheel (WTW) environmental performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is sensitive to driving patterns, which vary within and across regions. This thesis develops and applies a novel approach for estimating specific regional driving patterns. The approach employs a macroscopic traffic assignment model linked with a vehicle motion model to construct driving cycles, which is done for a wide range of driving patterns. For each driving cycle, the tank-to-wheel energy use of two PHEVs and comparable non-plug-in alternatives is estimated. These estimates are then employed within a WTW analysis to investigate implications of driving patterns on the energy use and greenhouse gas emission of PHEVs, and the WTW performance of PHEVs relative to non-plug-in alternatives for various electricity generation scenarios. The results of the WTW analysis demonstrate that driving patterns and the electricity generation supply interact to substantially impact the WTW performance of PHEVs.

The well-to-wheel (WTW) environmental performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is sensitive to driving patterns, which vary within and across regions. This thesis develops and applies a novel approach for estimating specific regional driving patterns. The approach employs a macroscopic traffic assignment model linked with a vehicle motion model to construct driving cycles, which is done for a wide range of driving patterns. For each driving cycle, the tank-to-wheel energy use of two PHEVs and comparable non-plug-in alternatives is estimated. These estimates are then employed within a WTW analysis to investigate implications of driving patterns on the energy use and greenhouse gas emission of PHEVs, and the WTW performance of PHEVs relative to non-plug-in alternatives for various electricity generation scenarios. The results of the WTW analysis demonstrate that driving patterns and the electricity generation supply interact to substantially impact the WTW performance of PHEVs.