According to the Reserve Bank of Australia (2006) the increased supply of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS), with a range of subordination, has broadened the investor base in real estate debt markets and reduced the commercial property sector’s dependence on bank financing The CMBS market has been one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing sectors in the capital markets, for a market which was virtually nonexistent prior to 1990. The global CMBS market issuance which stood at AU$5.1 billion (US$4 billion) in 1990 had grown to AU$380 billion (US$299 billion) by the end of 2006. In Australia, a total of over 60 CMBSs with nearly 180 tranches totalling over AU$17.4 billion had been issued to December 2006 from when they were first introduced in 1999. To date few studies have been done on Australian CMBSs outside the credit rating agency circles. These studies are predominantly practitioner focused (Jones Lang LaSalle 2001; Richardson 2003; Roche 2000, 2002). O’Sullivan (1998) and Simonovski (2003) are the only academic studies on CMBSs. As such, this thesis examines issues relating to the development of Australian CMBSs and quantitatively and qualitatively analyses the structuring of Australian CMBSs. In assessing the growth of the Australian CMBS market, an interpretive historical approach (Baumgarter & Hensley 2005) is adopted to provide a cogent review and explanation of features of international and Australian CMBSs. This helps to understand the changing nature of the market and provides better understanding of the present and suggests possible future directions. The Australian CMBS market is matured in comparison with the larger US and EU CMBS markets as seen by the diversity of asset classes backing the issues and transaction types, tightening spreads, and record issuance volumes. / High property market transparency (Jones Lang LaSalle 2006b) and predominance of Listed Property Trusts (LPT) as CMBS issuers (Standard & Poor’s 2005b), who legally have to report their activities and underlying collateral performance to regulatory regimes such as Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)/Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) and their equity partners, have contributed to the success of the Australian CMBS market. Furthermore, the positive commercial real estate market outlook should support future CMBS issuance, with LPTs continuing their dominance as issuers. In investigating property risk assessment in Australian CMBSs, all the CMBSs issued over a six year period of 2000 to 2005 were obtained from Standard and Poor’s presale reports as found in their Ratings Direct database to identify and review how property risk factors were addressed in all issues and within specific property asset classes following the delineation of property risk by Adair and Hutchinson (2005). Adequate assessment of property risk and its reporting is critical to the success of CMBS issues. The proposed framework shows that assessing and reporting property risk in Australian CMBSs, which are primarily backed by direct property assets, under the headings of investment quality risk, covenant strength risk, and depreciation and obsolescence risk can easily be done. The proposed framework should prove useful to rating agencies, bond issuers and institutional investors. Rating agencies can adopt a more systematic and consistent approach towards reporting of assessed property risk in CMBSs. Issuers and institutional investors can examine the perceived consistency and appropriateness of the rating assigned to a CMBS issue by providing inferences concerning property risk assessment. / The ultimate goal of structuring CMBS transactions is to obtain a high credit rating as this has an impact on the yield obtainable and the success of the issue. The credit rating process involves highly subjective assessment of both qualitative and quantitative factors of a particular company as well as pertinent industry level or market level variables (Huang et al. 2004), with the final rating assigned by a credit committee via voting (Kwon et al. 1997). As such, credit rating agencies state that researchers cannot replicate their ratings quantitatively since their ratings reflect each agency’s opinion about an issue’s potential default risk and relies heavily on a committee’s analysis of the issuer’s ability and willingness to repay its debt. However, researchers have replicated bond ratings on the premise that financial ratios contain a large amount of information about a company’s credit risk. In this study, quantitative analysis of determinants of CMBS credit ratings issued by Standard and Poor’s from 2000 – 2006 using ANNs and OR and qualitative analysis of factors considered necessary to obtain a high credit rating and pricing issues necessary for the success of an issue through mail surveys of arrangers and issuers are undertaken. Of the quantitative variables propagated by credit rating agencies as being important to CMBS rating, only loan-to-value ratio (LTV) is found to be statistically significant, with the other variables being statistically insignificant using OR. This leads to the conclusion that statistical approaches used in corporate bond rating studies have limited replication capabilities in CMBS rating and that the endogeneity arguments raise significant questions about LTV and debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) as convenient, short-cut measures of CMBS default risk. / However, ANNs do offer promising predictive results and can be used to facilitate implementation of survey-based CMBS rating systems. This should contribute to making the CMBS rating methodology become more explicit which is advantageous in that both CMBS investors and issuers are provided with greater information and faith in the investment. ANN results show that 62.0% of CMBS rating is attributable to LTV (38.2%) and DSCR (23.6%); supporting earlier studies which have listed the two as being the most important variables in CMBS rating. The other variables’ contributions are: CMBS issue size (10.1%), CMBS tenure (6.7%), geographical diversity (13.5%) and property diversity (7.9%) respectively. The methodology used to obtain these results is validated when applied to predict LPT bond ratings. Both OR and ANN produce provide robust alternatives to rating LPT bonds, with no significant differences in results between the full models of the two methods. Qualitative analysis of surveys on arrangers and issuers provides insights into structuring issues they consider necessary to obtain a high credit rating and pricing issues necessary for the success of an issue. Rating of issues was found to be the main reason why investors invest in CMBSs and provision of funds at attractive rates as the main motivation behind CMBS issuance. Furthermore, asset quality was found to be the most important factor necessary to obtain a high credit rating supporting the view by Henderson and ING Barings (1997) that assets backing securitisation are its fundamental credit strength. / In addition, analyses of the surveys reveal the following: • The choice of which debt funding option to use depends on market conditions. • Credit tranching, over-collateralisation and cross-collateralisation are the main forms of credit enhancement in use. • On average, the AAA note tranche needs to be above AU$100 million and have 60 - 85% subordination for the CMBS issue to be economically viable. • Structuring costs range between 0.1% – 1% of issue size and structuring duration ranges from 4 – 9 months. • Preferred refinancing options are further capital market issues and bank debt. • Pricing CMBSs is greatly influenced by factors in the broader capital markets. For instance, the market had literary shut down as a result of the “credit crunch” caused by the meltdown in the US sub-prime mortgage market. These findings can be useful to issuers as a guide on the cost of going to the bond market to raise capital, which can be useful in comparing with other sources of funds. The findings of this thesis address crucial research priorities of the property industry as CMBSs are seen as a major commercial real estate debt instrument. By looking at how property risk can be assessed and reported in a more systematic way, and investigating quantitative and qualitative factors considered in structuring CMBSs, investor confidence can be increased through the increased body of knowledge. Several published refereed journal articles in Appendix C further validate the stature and significance of this thesis. It is evident that the property research in this thesis can lead aid in the revitalisation of the Australian CMBS market after the “shut down” caused by the melt-down in the US sub-prime mortgage market and can also be used to set up property-backed CMBSs in emerging countries where the CMBS market is immature or non-existent.

Abstract not available

Background There is a widespread perception that the health status of rural Australians is poorer than that of urban Australians, characterised by higher mortality, lower life expectancies, and an increased incidence of some diseases. At present this perception is difficult to confirm or refute, in terms of mental illness, because of limited published data on the extent of mental illness in regional Australia. Australians from rural areas are also reported to have less access to appropriate health care compared to their urban counterparts; however, there is limited evidence to support such claims using large population-based epidemiological data. It is not known whether remoteness per se is an important determinant of health. Aim To determine if rural and remote South Australians were disadvantaged in terms of their mental health status and access to health care. The aims were to: 1) determine if prevalence of mental illness and comorbidity were associated with accessibility and remoteness; 2) examine the effects of accessibility and remoteness on health service utilisation; and 3) determine if remoteness per se was an important determinant of mental illness. Methods Prospectively designed, secondary analysis of data from a large cross sectional, population–based health survey, conducted in South Australia (SA) in 2000. In all, 2,454 adults, aged 18 years or more, were randomly selected and interviewed using the Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) system. CATI is a telephone monitoring system that is an efficient means of assessing self-reported aspects of population health, particularly in rural and remote areas. Psychological distress and depression were assessed using the Kessler 10 (K10) Psychological Distress Scale, the SF-12 measure of health status and self-reported, medically-confirmed mental illness, in the previous 12 months. Additional outcome measures included socio-demographic characteristics, a range of health services measures, psychosocial and health risk factors. Geographical variation in outcome measures was assessed using the Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA). The data were analysed using SPPS and Stata statistical programs and weighted by region, age, sex and probability of selection in the household, using the 1999 total estimated resident population (ERP) figures supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Direct age-sex standardisation was applied to prevalence rates of mental illness, socio-demographic and health service utilisation data. Results Overall age-sex adjusted mental illness prevalence estimates were similar using the three measures of psychological distress (10.5%), depression (12.9%) and self-reported medically-confirmed mental illness (12.9%). For each measure, there was no significant variation in prevalence across ARIA categories, except for a lower than expected prevalence of depression (7.7%) in the accessible category. There was also no significant difference in the median number of uses of four types of health services across ARIA categories. Significantly fewer residents of highly accessible areas reported never using primary health care services (14.4% vs. 22.2% in very remote areas), and significantly more reported high use (6 visits, 29.3% vs. 21.5%). Fewer residents of remote areas reported never attending hospital (65.6% vs. 73.8% in highly accessible areas). Frequency of use of mental health services was low and not significantly different across ARIA categories. Very remote residents were more likely to spend at least one night in a public hospital (15.8%) than were residents of other areas (eg 5.9% for highly accessible areas). After controlling for the joint effects of stressful life events, perceived control of life events, socio-demographic characteristics and health risk factors, odds of mental illness did not vary by ARIA category (highly accessible: reference category; accessible: OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.60-1.31; moderately accessible: OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.45-1.43; remote/ very remote: 0.70, 95% CI 0.44-1.03). The most important predictors of mental illness in the multivariate logistic model were female sex; smoking; low consumption of vegetables; low exercise; a physical condition; perceived lack of control with: life in general, personal life, job security or health; and major stressful events such as family or domestic violence and the death of someone close. Conclusions Prevalence rates of psychological distress, depression and medically-confirmed mental illness in SA were high. However, there was no evidence that the prevalence of these conditions varied substantially across ARIA categories. The frequency of use of a range of health services was also broadly similar across the state. Remoteness per se was not associated with mental illness, either directly or indirectly as an important confounder in stressful life event/mental illness associations. Psychosocial factors were more important determinants of mental illness. The data do not support existing stereotypes of a rural – urban mental health differential in SA and point to potential mechanisms that may be responsible for poorer mental health outcomes.

<p>This paper evaluates if international stock markets are exposed to fluctuation in the</p><p>exchange rate and whether this exposure is related to exports, imports and inflation. Eight</p><p>countries are studied: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Hong Kong, Sweden, Switzerland, the</p><p>United Kingdom and the United States. The empirical investigation covers the period</p><p>from 1995 to 2004 and the estimation is conducted using the framework of Patro, D.K.,</p><p>Wald, J.K. and Wu, Y. (2002). The empirical findings show that all international stock</p><p>markets are exposed to exchange rate risk, except for Brazil. The amount of exchange rate</p><p>exposure is found to be sensitive to a country’s export, import and inflation. The results</p><p>imply that there are predictable relationship between changes in the return of the national</p><p>stock index return and fluctuation in the exchange rate. In addition, imports and exports</p><p>as well as inflation may be useful in predicting exchange rate risks.</p>

Thesis (M.A. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

This paper evaluates if international stock markets are exposed to fluctuation in the exchange rate and whether this exposure is related to exports, imports and inflation. Eight countries are studied: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Hong Kong, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. The empirical investigation covers the period from 1995 to 2004 and the estimation is conducted using the framework of Patro, D.K., Wald, J.K. and Wu, Y. (2002). The empirical findings show that all international stock markets are exposed to exchange rate risk, except for Brazil. The amount of exchange rate exposure is found to be sensitive to a country’s export, import and inflation. The results imply that there are predictable relationship between changes in the return of the national stock index return and fluctuation in the exchange rate. In addition, imports and exports as well as inflation may be useful in predicting exchange rate risks.

<p>Health security is increasingly being seen as integral to any poverty reduction strategy. Health is viewed not only as an end in itself but also as an indispensable input into the development process because there is a positive link between health and development. Of all the risks facing poor households, health risks probably pose the greatest threat to their lives and livelihoods. Against this background, this research examines the vital subject of participation in mutual health insurance as a poverty reduction strategy at the rural community level. It has been accepted that community-based initiatives play important roles in improving poor people s risk-sharing arrangements. The extent to which these community-based initiatives are able to address the problem of social exclusion in local communities is far from being clear.</p>

This thesis examines ways of establishing cause of death, assessing trends in mortality, and identifying factors that affect mortality and survival among the different population groups in rural and semi-urban Ethiopia. These data are important for health care planning; however, such vital data are unavailable in many developing countries. The study was conducted in Butajira Rural Health Program Demographic Surveillance Site, Ethiopia, where data collection on vital events and related research has been conducted for the last 20 years. This thesis used a cohort and a case referent study preceded by Focus Group Discussion. It also employed a verbal autopsy procedure to identify causes of death. The cohort component used 18 years of surveillance data (1987-2004). The prospective case referent study, carried out in the years 2003-2005, was used to complement the mortality analysis and focused particularly on issues related to household decision making, social capital, and economic status. The main subgroups included were children under-five years old, adults 15-64, and the elderly 65 years and above. Cause of death was ascertained using the Physicians’ Review and InterVA methods. Food shortage and epidemics affected the modest downward trend of mortality. There was a general similarity between the Physicians’ Review and InterVA methods in identifying the major causes of death. About 60% of the deaths were due to pneumonia/sepsis, pulmonary tuberculosis, malaria, and diarrhoea disease/malnutrition. The InterVA method was cheaper and more consistent. Higher rates of HIV/AIDS (11%), tuberculosis (18%), and cardiovascular (9%) mortality were noted in urban areas compared to rural areas. Consistent higher mortality was found in rural areas. Women were disadvantaged by residence and advanced age. Place of residence, illiteracy, widowhood, and not owning a house affected men and women differently, indicating a possible need for gender-specific interventions. Children and women survival is affected by household decision-making; this means efforts to improve women’s involvement in household decision-making (women empowerment) might improve child and women survival in poor settings. Many factors that significantly affect mortality can only be controlled by concerted efforts to improve health and overall development.

The thesis examines the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and, in order to achieve a better understanding of how MENA economies may attract FDI, attempts to identify their possible location-specific de-terminants. The analysis is based on the results of the cross-section OLS regression meth-od. The examined empirical model is based on the eclectic theory developed by John Dun-ning and the previous empirical studies. To test the relevant location-specific determinants of FDI inflows into MENA region, eighteen countries are sampled for the period 1996-2006. The results of the regression analysis show that physical infrastructure and trade openness are significant determinants of FDI in the MENA countries.

This paper employs an augmented gravity model for a sample of 96 host countries to examine the impact of host country rule of law on direct investment from the United States. This paper further investigates the gap between property rights and freedom from corruption, the two primary components of a country’s rule of law. Property rights and freedom from corruption are both shown to have a significant positive effect on U.S. outward foreign direct investment. This thesis argues that freedom from corruption is a more powerful measure than property rights for determining the location of U.S. direct investment. This suggests that for host countries, reducing the level of corruption may be more effective at stimulating direct capital investment from U.S. investors than expanding property rights.