The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol has been hailed as the grand compromise of the North-South divide over climate change mitigation for its ability to reconcile the economic demands of the North with the developmental needs of the South. Having been primarily analyzed from isolated economic, environmental, or developmental perspectives, the CDMs efficacy in bridging the North-South divide remains poorly understood. This research evaluates the CDM against three qualitative criteria focused on issues affecting Southern nations participation in international agreements. An examination of distributive and procedural issues characterizing the CDM shows that significant trade-offs exist between Northern and Southern interests under the CDM and suggests that the interests of the South are often sacrificed. On this basis, conclusions are drawn which point to the need for increased attention to and accommodation of Southern interests in the CDM specifically, and global climate change efforts more broadly.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol has been hailed as the grand compromise of the North-South divide over climate change mitigation for its ability to reconcile the economic demands of the North with the developmental needs of the South. Having been primarily analyzed from isolated economic, environmental, or developmental perspectives, the CDM’s efficacy in bridging the North-South divide remains poorly understood. This research evaluates the CDM against three qualitative criteria focused on issues affecting Southern nations’ participation in international agreements. An examination of distributive and procedural issues characterizing the CDM shows that significant trade-offs exist between Northern and Southern interests under the CDM and suggests that the interests of the South are often sacrificed. On this basis, conclusions are drawn which point to the need for increased attention to and accommodation of Southern interests in the CDM specifically, and global climate change efforts more broadly.

La seguente Tesi di Dottorato si articola in cinque saggi che esaminano alcuni importanti aspetti legati all'energia in Africa subsahariana, e in particolare all'interazione tra lo sviluppo socio-economico e le sue implicazioni per l'ambiente a livello regionale e globale. I saggi sono introdotti da un capitolo di avvicinamento generale ai temi trattati. Questo capitolo prepara il lettore offrendo un riassunto delle principali sfide legate all'energia nel contesto subsariano e formulando le domande di ricerca e gli strumenti sui quali si basa la tesi stessa. Le principali implicazioni di ciascuno dei saggi, sia per la ricerca che per i decisori politici, vengono poi presentate in un capitolo di discussione finale. Il primo saggio esamina la problematica dell’accesso all'energia, e in particolare all'elettricità. Viene illustrato il ruolo dei dati satellitari e dell'analisi statistica dei dati geospaziali nel migliorare la comprensione della situazione dell'accesso all'elettricità in Africa subsahariana. Il saggio include un'analisi delle disuguaglianze che caratterizzano la qualità dell'accesso all'elettricità nella regione. Il risultato principale è che, dopo decenni, la disuguaglianza nell'accesso all'energia sta iniziando a diminuire. Essa rimane però prominente, in particolare per quanto riguarda la quantità di energia consumata. Viene stimato che gli sforzi di elettrificazione tra il 2020 e il 2030 debbano triplicare il loro passo per raggiungere l'obiettivo di sviluppo sostenibile SDG 7.1.1. Il secondo saggio consiste di una piattaforma di valutazione della domanda energetica bottom-up spazialmente esplicita per stimare il fabbisogno energetico tra le comunità in cui l'accesso all'elettricità è attualmente carente, come identificato con la metodologia introdotta nel primo saggio. La valutazione non si limita al fabbisogno energetico residenziale, ma include un resoconto dettagliato, basato sugli usi finali, del fabbisogno energetico di scuole, strutture sanitarie, pompaggio dell'acqua per l'irrigazione, lavorazione delle colture e microimprese, i principali motori dello sviluppo rurale. Viene condotto uno studio nazionale per il Kenya per dimostrare l'importanza di considerare molteplici fonti di domanda oltre al residenziale quando l'obiettivo è sviluppare una strategia di elettrificazione che supperisca veramente alla povertà energetica. Si dimostra poi che esiste un notevole potenziale di crescita della produttività e della redditività rurale grazie all'apporto di energia elettrica. In molte aree, questi profitti locali potrebbero ripagare gli investimenti nelle infrastrutture di elettrificazione in pochi anni. Il terzo saggio analizza un aspetto specifico dell'interazione tra pianificazione dell'accesso all'elettricità, domanda di energia residenziale e adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Vengono combinati dati e scenari climatici, satellitari e demografici per produrre una stima globale spazialmente esplicita della domanda di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria non soddisfatta a causa della mancanza di accesso all'elettricità. Sulla base di modelli integrati di elettrificazione climatica-energetica e geospaziale, risulta che in Africa sub-sahariana, l'hotspot globale della povertà energetica, tenere conto del fabbisogno di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria locale stimato (in aggiunta agli obiettivi di consumo residenziale di base) determini una riduzione sostanziale della quota di sistemi standalone come l'opzione di elettrificazione meno costosa entro il 2030, e un importante aumento della capacità di generazione di elettricità e dei requisiti di investimento. Tali risultati suggeriscono la necessità di una maggiore considerazione delle esigenze di adattamento climatico nella pianificazione dei sistemi energetici dei paesi in via di sviluppo e nella valutazione del trade-off tra l'espansione della rete elettrica centrale e sistemi decentralizzati per raggiungere un’elettrificazione universale. La pianificazione dell'elettrificazione deve essere tecnicamente efficiente, ma deve anche considerare l'ambiente politico-economico in cui gli investimenti vengono canalizzati. Il quarto saggio valuta il ruolo della governance e della qualità regolatoria nel quadro di modellazione dell'accesso all'energia elettrica. In particolare, si introduce un indice di governance dell'accesso all'elettricità basato su più indicatori che viene poi implementato nel modello di elettrificazione IMAGE-TIMER. L’effetto dell’indice viene modellato attraverso il suo effetto modificatore sui tassi di sconto privati (una misura del rischio e della disponibilità ad accettare costi futuri rispetto ai costi attuali). I risultati mostrano che la governance e la qualità regolatoria nell'accesso all'elettricità hanno un impatto significativo sul mix tecnologico ottimale e sui flussi di investimenti privati per raggiungere l'elettrificazione universale in Africa subsahariana. In particolare, un ambiente rischioso scoraggia l’investimento da parte dei fornitori privati di soluzioni di accesso decentralizzato all'energia, con il rischio di lasciare molti senza elettricità anche oltre il 2030. Il quinto e ultimo saggio analizza il settore energetico africano da un punto di vista ‘Nexus’. Il saggio valuta l'affidabilità del sistema energetico nei sistemi energetici dominati dall'energia idroelettrica (come in molti paesi dell'Africa centrale e orientale) e del ruolo che i cambiamenti climatici e gli eventi estremi possono esercitare su di esso. Il lavoro combina analisi qualitative e quantitative per (i) proporre un solido framework per evidenziare le interdipendenze tra energia idroelettrica, disponibilità di acqua e cambiamento climatico, (ii) analizzare sistematicamente lo stato dell'arte sugli impatti previsti dei cambiamenti climatici su l'energia idroelettrica nell'Africa subsahariana e (iii) fornire evidenza empirica sui trend passati e sulle traiettorie di sviluppo futuro del settore. I risultati suggeriscono che il cambiamento climatico influenzerà l'affidabilità e la sicurezza della fornitura elettrica attraverso diversi canali. Ad esempio, molti dei principali bacini idrologici sono stati caratterizzati da una diminuzione del livello idrico nel corso del ventesimo secolo. Si evidenzia come tuttavia una diversificazione del mix di generazione elettrico sia finora stata promossa solo in un numero limitato di paesi. Si suggerisce infine che l'integrazione delle fonti rinnovabili variabili con l'energia idroelettrica possa aumentare la resilienza del sistema. / This dissertation is a collection of five essays examining some important energy-related aspects at the interplay of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s development and its interactions with the regional and global environment. The essays are introduced by a general overview chapter – highlighting the core energy-related challenges of SSA and the scope of this work. The main implications of the essays, both for research and for policymakers, are then considered in the final discussion chapter. The first essay focuses on access to modern energy, and chiefly on electricity. I illustrate the role of satellite data and the statistical analysis of geospatial data in improving the understanding of the electricity access situation in sub-Saharan Africa. The essay includes an analysis of inequality characterising the electricity access quality in the region. The main finding is that after decades, energy access inequality is beginning to decline but it remains prominent in particular as far as the quantity consumed is concerned. I find that electrification efforts between 2020 and 2030 must triplicate their pace to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7.1.1. The second essay develops a spatially-explicit bottom-up energy demand assessment platform to estimate the energy needs among communities where access to electricity is currently lacking, as identified with the methodology introduced in the first essay. The assessment is not restricted to residential energy needs, but it includes a detailed, appliance-based account of power needs for schools, healthcare facilities, water pumping for irrigation, crop processing, and micro enterprises, the key drivers of rural development. I carry out a country-study for Kenya to show the importance of considering multiple demand sources beyond residential when the aim is developing an electrification strategy which truly overcomes energy poverty. I also show that there is considerable potential for rural productivity and profitability growth thanks to the input of electric energy. In many areas, these local profits might pay back the electrification infrastructure investment in only few years. The third essay analyses a specific aspect at the interplay between electricity access planning, household energy demand and climate change adaptation. I combine climate, satellite, and demographic data and scenarios to produce a global spatially-explicit estimate of unmet ACC demand due to the lack of electricity access. Based on integrated climate-energy and geospatial electrification modelling, I find that in sub-Saharan Africa, the global hotspot of energy poverty, accounting for the estimated local ACC needs on top of baseline residential consumption targets determines a substantial reduction in the share of decentralised systems as the least-cost electrification option by 2030, and a major ramp-up in the power generation capacity and investment requirements. My results call for a greater consideration of climate adaptation needs in the planning of energy systems of developing countries and in evaluating the trade-off between the central power grid expansion and decentralised systems to achieve universal electrification. Electrification planning must be techno-economically efficient, but it must also consider the political-economic environment where investment needs to be channelled. The fourth essay evaluates the role of governance and regulatory quality in the electricity access modelling framework. In particular, I introduce an Electricity Access Governance Index based on multiple indicators implement it into the PBL’s IMAGE-TIMER electrification model through its modifier effect on private discount rates (a measure of risk and willingness to accept future costs vis-à-vis present costs). The results show that governance and regulatory quality in electricity access have a significant impact on the optimal technological mix and the private investment flows for reaching universal electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, risky environment crowd out private providers of decentralised energy access solutions with the risk of leaving many without electricity even after 2030. The fifth and final essay takes a nexus perspective in the analysis of the African power sector. It deals with the reliability of the energy system in hydropower-dominated power systems (such as in many countries in Central and East Africa) and the role that climate change and extreme events can exert on it. The essay combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to (i) propose a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change, (ii) systematically review the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa, and (iii) provide supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections. I find that climate change can affect supply reliability and security in multiple ways. For instance, several major river basins have been drying throughout the twentieth century. Nonetheless, I highlight that diversification has hitherto only been promoted in a limited number of countries. I suggest how integrating variable renewables and hydropower can increase system resilience.

The daunting tasks of responding to climate change and ensuring sustainable development (SD) are high on the political agenda among world leaders. From the onset, the clean development mechanisms (CDM) outlined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol (KP), state that CDM activities should contribute to SD in the host country while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Nevertheless, many scholars have criticized CDM for failing to deliver on its twin objectives. In Ethiopia in particular, there was lack of afforestation/reforestation (A/R) CDM research specific to the nation; specifically, research as to whether A/R-CDM met the stipulated twin objectives of SD and mitigation (reducing GHG). This study was conducted in the Humbo district of Wolyaita Zone, Southern Nations - Nationality and People Regional (SNNPR) state of Ethiopia, where A/R-CDM was implemented in pursuit of these twin objectives. Humbo is located between 6°46’48.47 and 6°41’04.28N; and between 37°48’35.44 and 37° 55’14.51E, between altitudinal gradients 1200 and 1900 m.a.s.l. The climate of the study area is characterized by annual temperatures between 25°C and 28°C, and by total annual rainfall between 800 to 1000 mm. The objectives of the study were to quantify the change of above ground and below ground carbon pools of native tree species; to assess the attractiveness of FMNR forestry practices; to examine A/R-CDM contributions to community level SD; and to assess the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policy founded on native tree species-based A/R-CDM. Data regarding above ground biomass (AGB) and below ground biomass (BGB) carbon pools of native tree species was collected through non-destructive techniques to quantify the change in carbon sequestration and associated carbon trading. A multi-stage random cluster household (HH) sampling approach was used to assess the attractiveness of farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) forestry practice. To examine the contribution of A/R-CDM to community level SD, three dimensions of SD were evaluated, namely; (local) environmental, social, and economic. Two indicators were considered per each dimension. With regard to local environmental SD, community access to natural resources, as well as changes to the local climate were considered. With regard to the social dimension, job creation and changes to social support structures were considered. With regard to the economic dimension, economic activities of the area and local skill development were considered. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to triangulate the survey as well as to assess policy perspectives. Results revealed that the Humbo native tree species based A/R-CDM, which employed FMNR forestry practices, sequestered a net total of 73,138; 84,848; 103,769 and 111,657 tCO2e along 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 years, respectively, across 2,728 ha. In terms of carbon leakage due to fuel wood collection activity displacement, a net zero was found since the average volume of fuelwood collected from the project area, after the area was closed off, was found to be 5.1 - 6.1 M3, while before the area was closed off, that number was 4.3 M3. This was due to the project employing FMNR forestry practices. Similarly, the leakage due to livestock grazing activity displacement also was found to be a net zero, since the number of animals grazing on land adjacent to the project area after four years of the area’s being closed off reached 11,383 cattle, 429 donkeys and 4,108 goats, unlike 8,684 cattle and 2,288 goats before the project. In other words, the number of livestock owned by farmers on the land adjacent to the project site was not adversely affected by the closing off of the site, which prevented grazing on the area allocated to A/R-CDM. The livestock management training provided by project developer improved the farmers’ rearing efficiency. Another expected leakage due to soil pitting for A/R was also found to be nil since soil disturbance did not take place because of FMNR practices. These results indicated that systematic regeneration of native tree species through FMNR forestry practices is an effective method to develop carbon sinks. From the point of view of FMNR attractiveness, the results revealed that the practice improved land cover change. The use of FMNR avoided the projected eight years reforestation investment cost of US$ 2,751,312.00 which could have been used if plantation forestry was undertaken. This showed that Humbo A/R-CDM might not have happened if FMNR is had not been introduced, as CDM has no pre-finance mechanism. With regard to community level SD contributions, the establishment of forest protection and development farmers’ cooperatives, as well as the granting of communal land-user rights certification, resulted in legal ownership of the land to the community, whereas before, the land was considered “no man’s land,” and subject to open access. The land-user rights and carbon ownership in turn empowered the community to sign a contract with an international carbon credit buyer. In terms of the local microclimate, the regeneration of native tree species was correlated with increased rainfall in the area in June, July, August and September (JJAS) and March, April and May (MAM). This suggested that the native tree species based A/R-CDM project played a role in improving the local microclimate. In terms of sociological SD, the study showed that new employment opportunities were created including tree pruning, thinning, forest guarding, and jobs at the community warehouse and community flourmill. The availability of employment opportunities was significantly higher for those who participated in the Humbo A/R-CDM, when compared to those who didn’t. In terms of social support structures, in less than ten years, seven Humbo A/R-CDM project owner farmers’ cooperatives, initially established as owners of the project, evolved into one forest protection and development Union. This enabled the institutionalization of grassroots organizations towards a common communal and international agenda of care for the environment. In terms of economic effects, the project enabled a carbon credit contract worth a total of US$ 3,873,298.00, signed at the sell rate of US$ 4.4 per tCO2e, for a total of 880,295 tCO2e across a 30 year crediting period. This is a new business model for the community, the country, and global businesses, all doing their part in climate change mitigation - CDM. As of the first A/R-CDM verification, the community received a total of US$ 321,807.2 in 2011. Consequently, the community received 373,331.2 in 2014, 456,583.6 in 2015 and 491,290.8 in 2016. In terms of revenue from logging, selective harvesting is planned to take place in years 12, 24 and 36. The community is projected to earn at least US$ 15,150.00 per ha1 (a total of US$ 3.9 million) from the first forest harvest in year 12 alone. These benefits in emission reduction (ER) and SD suggest that massive cross-dimensional benefits were foregone due to the country’s refusal to welcome A/R-CDM in its first commitment period, despite having 36,434,400 ha of land eligible for A/R. The research results in the area of policy perspectives indicated that the Humbo A/R-CDM project, the only one of its kind in Ethiopia, was made possible by environment related constitutional provisions, especially those pertaining to land-user rights, and the existence of a nationally standardized definition of forest that complies with international range. Additionally, the timely ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (KP), the establishment of a designated national authority (DNA) and a letter of approval by the DNA to the project developer were found to be enablers. Yet, defining land use, clarifying carbon ownership rights and bringing an inclusive benefit sharing mechanism for forest carbon are among the key instruments the country has yet to put in place to prove local readiness for such development opportunities. The Humbo A/R-CDM also undertook voluntary assessments to obtain additional certification in the form of the Climate Community Biodiversity (CCB) certification, and was certified to be of gold standard for its premium. However, there were no benefits to the host community and project developer from the CCB gold standard certification. Such ambiguity could have been cleared from the onset. This implied whenever going for market and/or result based climate change mitigation, it is necessary to understand the provisions. This study revealed that the Humbo native tree species-based A/R-CDM via FMNR forestry practices met the CDM twin objectives as specified in Article 12 of the KP in 1997, namely the double aims of achieving mitigations of GHG emissions and assisting developing countries inSD. Yet, more research is needed to understand all eligible A/R carbon pools sequestered at Humbo A/R-CDM site. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)